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Wednesday, March 28
Self likes Michigan State to win title
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
Illinois coach Bill Self has the read on this Final Four better than any other coach.
He should. Self went 3-3 against the field as the only coach to go against all four teams.
"I doubt anyone has played six games against the field," Self said. "We played Maryland when they hadn't hit their stride yet and Michigan State and Arizona are playing a lot better than they were earlier in the year."
|  | | Maryland's Steve Blake, left, and teammate Danny Miller play a little one-on-one during Monday's practice. |
Illinois opened the year with a win over Maryland and then a loss to Arizona in the Maui Invitational. The Illini had to travel to Greensboro, N.C., and nearly upset Duke before losing on the last possession. Illinois beat Arizona in Chicago two weeks later and then beat Michigan State in its only meeting during the Big Ten regular season.
Top-seeded Illinois' season ended with an 87-81 loss to second-seeded Arizona on Sunday in the Midwest Regional final.
"I like Michigan State," Self said, staying true to the Big Ten. "The one thing about the other three teams is that they're all very talented and fast on the perimeter. But Michigan State can neutralize the perimeter speed and do the work on the glass."
The last time every Final Four team had a legit shot – at least in hindsight – to win the title was in 1993 when Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas rolled into New Orleans.
It's an arguable point, of course.
But the last seven Final Fours had one team that was a reach to win the title: Wisconsin in 2000; Ohio State in '99; Stanford in '98; Minnesota in '97; Mississippi State in '96; Oklahoma State in '95 and Florida in '94.
Obviously, these teams were playing well going into the Final Four, but there was a more defined division among the four teams. That's not the case this year.
Duke, Maryland, Arizona and Michigan State are all on rolls and have similar talent to win the title.
Each team has met four of the five key components to winning a title: They all have the elite point guard (Duke's Jason Williams, Maryland's Steve Blake, Arizona's Jason Gardner, Michigan State's combo of Charlie Bell/Marcus Taylor); the inside-out combination (Williams-Shane Battier; Juan Dixon-Lonny Baxter; Gilbert Arenas-Loren Woods; Bell-Zach Randolph or Andre Hutson); the halfcourt defense (check out USC's, Illinois', Stanford's and Temple's frustrations last weekend) and the head coaching experience.
Three of the four head coaches in this Final Four have won national titles: Duke's Mike Krzyzewski in '91 and '92; Arizona's Lute Olson in' 97 and Michigan State's Tom Izzo last year. And it's hard to say that Maryland's Gary Williams is green, considering he's coached in five Sweet 16s since '94 and is a regular in the tournament at every one of his stops (Boston College, Ohio State and Maryland).
Having these four teams in the Final Four mirrors the regular season. The season had essentially four to seven teams who were realistic contenders for the title. Stanford, North Carolina and Illinois could make legit arguments that they thought they would be in Minneapolis. This is one big-time sporting event that should live up to its billing.
So how can each team win? Here's Self's early take.
Michigan State: "It's their halfcourt defense. Their first-shot defense is great and they grab 90 percent of the misses. They do that better than anybody. That's why they'll win."
Duke: "They've got to make 3s to win and spread the court with penetration. The key player is (Carlos) Boozer. He'll have to come up huge against (Maryland's Lonny) Baxter and then whoever else they'll play in the final."
Arizona: "The guards have to make 3s. A huge key is Arenas and Gardner. They've got the ability to make the defense isolate on them and it can create a lot for them."
Maryland: "They're the one team that enters this the loosest. Their threesome of Baxter, (Terence) Morris and Dixon is as good as any threesome on any team. I think those guys can do it but I'm not sure Maryland's inside defense can stop Arizona and Michigan State should they get past Duke."
What to look for at the Final Four
Most popular player: Expect Battier to be swarmed by the media at the Final Four. Reporters will likely eat up Battier's prose when he's on the podium or in the Sunday media breakout room if Duke gets to the title game.
Most popular coach: The NCAA media security should get ready for Izzo busting the rules on media access. All you have to know about Izzo occurred at the Big Ten tournament in Chicago. The Big Ten media rep tried to get Izzo to hurry up but he wanted to talk more to reporters. He doesn't mind sharing his thoughts and he'll continue to do that this week.
Best storylines: Lute Olson. He lost his wife of 47 years, Bobbi, to cancer on New Year's Day. That Olson has reached the Final Four is an unbelievable feat.
Comeback story: Arizona's Woods. He had two back surgeries last spring. He was suspended twice this season – by the NCAA for six games and by Olson for boorish behavior in practice. Now he's leading the Wildcats to the Final Four and looks more like a lottery pick.
Best chance to get NBA question over and over: Duke's Jason Williams. He said he's returning to school but he's playing so well – top-pick well – that he likely will get harassed all week.
Most talkative assistants: Crowds of reporters will congregate around Michigan State's Stan Heath and Brian Gregory. Both don't mind sharing their views and their coach (see above) doesn't muzzle them.
Complaining about the site: The NCAA won't leave domes, but Minneapolis is expecting temperatures no higher than 50 with rain and snow expected nearly every day. The outside feel of the Final Four will be limited to the gerbil tunnels that connect downtown.
All-lobby first-team: Expect Fresno State's Jerry Tarkanian and Cincinnati's Bob Huggins to make the late-night cut at the Hilton. Assistants trying to hook up with new coaches will make the rounds at what could be the most rumor-filled Final Four in recent memory regarding openings.
Hottest chatter: Whether or not Rick Pitino will pursue N.C. State coach and former assistant Herb Sendek as an assistant at Louisville. And who else will be on Bob Knight's staff and whether or not he'll get players.
Best moments of the first four rounds
Best shot: Hampton coach Steve Merfeld being held up with his legs flailing after upsetting Iowa State in the first round at Boise.
Biggest upset: Hampton over Iowa State. Can't believe anyone picked that one.
Biggest surprise: Temple playing Penn State in the Elite Eight.
Best performance: St. Joe's Marvin O'Connor scoring 37 on Stanford in a second-round loss.
Most memorable moment: Temple coach John Chaney kissing the forehead of senior Quincy Wadley as he eloquently spoke about his loyalty to Chaney and wanting to get him to the Final Four.
Biggest disappointment: That Chaney couldn't get to the Final Four.
Biggest distraction: The Pitino-Knight coaching watch.
Best news-conference clip: Iowa coach Steve Alford testily responding to questions about Indiana.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. Send this story to a friend | Most sent stories
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