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Thursday, March 29
Duke-Maryland IV pretty predictable
By Gregg Doyel
Special to ESPN.com
DURHAM, N.C. – Duke and Maryland go at it a fourth time in the Final Four in Minneapolis, but really, is this necessary? They've played each other so often, and so recently – thrice since Jan. 27 – they ought to know what's going to happen Saturday.
We do.
We've watched Duke win the first and third games, around Maryland taking Game 2 in Cameron Indoor Stadium. We've studied our notes, our quotes, our anecdotes, and to us it seems Game 4 is a formality, 40 minutes of redundancy stuffed in and around prepaid commercials.
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The Triology
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Here is a quick look at the first three meetings between Maryland and Duke this season:
Jan. 27: Cole Field House
Duke 98, Maryland 96 (OT)
Maryland led by 10 with a minute left in regulation when Jason Williams scored eight points over a 13-second span to pull Duke within 90-88 with 41 seconds remaining. After a Maryland turnover, Nate James was fouled after an offensive rebound and made two free throws to tie the score at 90. Shane Battier took over in overtime, scoring the Blue Devils' final six points and blocked Maryland's final shot with four seconds left.
Feb. 27: Cameron Indoor Stadium
Maryland 91, Duke 80
Maryland, trailing 60-51 with 15:20 left, won with a superb defensive effort, forcing Duke to miss 25 of its first 31 shots of the second half including a more than eight-minute stretch without a basket. The Blue Devils shot 9-for-37 overall and 3-for-19 from 3-point range over the final 20 minutes. The Terrapins sealed the win by making 10 of 11 free throws over the final 1:34. Duke played the final 9½ minutes without starting center Carlos Boozer, who
broke a bone in his right foot early in second half.
March 10: Georgia Dome
Duke 84, Maryland 82
Nate James' tip with 1.3 seconds left led Duke to an ACC Tournament semifinal victory. Maryland had just come back from a 14-point second-half deficit when Steve Blake hit a 3-pointer to tie the score at 82 with 8.1 seconds remaining.
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"As soon as we lost that (third) game, that's what we were saying – 'We're going to see y'all again. We definitely want to play y'all
again.' – and we've done that," Maryland point guard Steve Blake said.
"We respect Duke probably more than anybody else because we've played them three times," Maryland head coach Gary Williams said earlier this week. "But at the same time, we know we can play with them."
So if the lawn needs mowing Saturday – especially out West, where you've got some daylight at tipoff – mow it. If the hair needs washing, wash it. You won't miss anything in the Duke-Maryland game. We've got the game right here.
It starts with a handshake. Duke's Mike Krzyzewski and Maryland's Gary Williams will spend the entire game staring or yelling at each other, including during timeouts, but two minutes before tipoff they will shake hands and smile and actually look happy to see each other.
It won't be true.
Remember how the first half ended in Game 2 at Cameron, with Williams and Krzyzewski screaming in each other's face as their players ran into the locker rooms.
Then the game will start, and it will start with a run, probably by Duke, probably inspired by a Shane Battier 3-pointer. That's how the first two games began, the Blue Devils rocking the Terps right off the bat, although Maryland got it right in the third meeting by jumping Duke for the first 10 points.
The team with the game-opening run might not be the one you're rooting for, but don't sweat it. All three games have started with a one-sided spurt, but in only one of those meetings did the spurter – Duke, Game 1 – win.
Soon it'll be even, anyway. That 10-0 Maryland lead in Game 3? Duke tied the game at 12. That 12-4 Duke run to open Game 1? Maryland tied it at 19.
Now we get to the good part, the battle of the point guards. Steve Blake of Maryland against Jason Williams of Duke.
Believe it or not, these guys like each other. They were roommates this past summer on an international team of U.S. college players, and they got along. Blake never played in the games, of course, because Williams was the team's leading scorer, shooter and assist man.
For three reasons, though, Blake makes things tougher on Williams than anyone else. First, Blake is an inch taller than Williams at 6-foot-3, and with the arms of someone 6-6. Second, Blake has perhaps the best defensive two-guard in the country, Juan Dixon, and two premium shot-blockers – Terence Morris and Lonny Baxter – waiting to provide help-side support. Third, as Williams has admitted, he turns games against Maryland into a duel with Blake, the intensity overcoming him.
|  | | Lonny Baxter was held in check by Duke in the first three games, but is averaging over 17 ppg in the tourney. |
So in the meatiest section of Game 4 Williams will shoot poorly (19-for-56 in the first three games). Williams probably will turn it over more than usual (10 turnovers in Game 1 alone). But Duke will hang in, trading baskets with the Terps, Battier (23.7 ppg against Maryland) holding his own against Dixon (20.7 ppg) and Baxter (12.3 ppg).
But there's another spurt waiting. In all three games, the team that started fast ended the half fast, too. Duke closed the half in Game 1 with an 8-2 run, and in Game 2 with a 14-5 run. Maryland ended the half in Game 3 with a 10-2 rally.
Somewhere around the 30-minute mark, a team will surge ahead. There is too much offensive firepower for it not to happen. All it takes is a few turnovers in a short period of time, like Williams had against Blake in Game 1 as the Terps took control. Or a flurry of 3-pointers, like Duke had to turn around Game 2. Or something as routine as a team missing four shots in a row, which happened to Maryland in Game 3.
Then, the reversal.
In Game 1, Blake fouled out with 1:51 left and the Terps leading 84-73. Maryland then committed two turnovers, didn't hit a field goal and managed only backup point guard Drew Nicholas' rushed 3-pointer from the corner at the buzzer. Meanwhile, with his tormentor out, Williams scored 12 points in the final 1:51, including eight in 13 seconds as Duke rallied from a 10-point deficit to win 98-96 in overtime.
In Game 2, Duke center Carlos Boozer, who had 16 points and seven rebounds, left with a broken foot with Duke leading 64-60. The Terps immediately went on a 14-2 run to put away a game they won 91-80.
In Game 3, Maryland reserve Danny Miller picked the final three minutes to look like the McDonald's All-American he was in high school. He rebounded his own miss and found Dixon for a 3-pointer. Then he hit a 3-pointer of his own, then a free throw. But Duke's Nate James, whose poor play had cost him his starting position, tapped in Williams' miss with 1.3 seconds left as Duke won 84-82.
"I don't think it gets any better than those three games when it comes down to it in terms of players playing well," Gary Williams
said. "What I like about all three games is that both teams played well – there was never a bad performance by either team, and that is what makes for a great series."
The unexpected twist of fate Saturday? Well, OK, so we don't know everything. Better not mow that lawn just yet.
Go ahead and take the shower, though. Maybe at halftime.
Gregg Doyel covers the ACC for The Charlotte Observer and is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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