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Thursday, March 29
MSU-Arizona an athletic board game
By Bill Self
Special to ESPN.com
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Self at Final Four
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Bill Self will provide analysis at the Final Four for ESPN.com. His Illinois team played each Final Four team this season, beating both Michigan State and Maryland, losing to Duke in the Big-Ten/ACC challenge, and going 1-2 against Arizona including a loss to the Wildcats in the Midwest Regional final.
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The first thing I think about when I think Michigan State is toughness. The second thing would be rebounding. And the third thing would be how fast they go from defense to offense. I think they are fabulous in transition when they control the glass.
But Arizona is athletic enough to match up with Michigan State in transition, as long as the Spartans aren't beating the Wildcats to the loose balls, rebounds and "hustle plays."
Teams have to play the style of basketball that has gotten them this far. So, I don't look at our Midwest Regional final loss to Arizona -- which was very physical -- to necessarily be the plan of attack Michigan State takes into Saturday's game. Michigan State is a very physical team, but so is Arizona. The Spartans won't be able to bully Arizona. Remember, in our game with four minutes to play, Illinois had committed only two more fouls than Arizona. Yes, we committed a ton of fouls in the final minutes trying to come back, but I really think Arizona is more physical than people give them credit for being.
Nobody questions the Spartans' toughness. What is questioned at times is Michigan State's offensive numbers. But the Spartans' bottom line -- Ws and Ls -- aren't measured by their stat sheets.
The advantage Michigan State takes into just about every game is clearly rebounding. The Spartans really guard teams and will run a good halfcourt offense around inside players Zach Randolph and Andre Hutson. Charlie Bell also can create shots if the offense stalls in the halfcourt. But when Michigan State isn't consistent on offense, it seems to be able to manufacture points with their rebounding and defense. This has been a trademark of Tom Izzo's teams since he arrived on the scene.
Offensively, the Spartans don't have great percentages on paper. Their outside shooting has been questioned. But to me, they just seem to make enough shots. With Bell, Jason Richardson, David Thomas and Marcus Taylor, they are in good shape outside. The thing Michigan State does so well is rebound their misses.
Michigan State steals extra possessions with their offensive rebounding.
Arizona, meanwhile, has the luxury of five guys who can score on the court at all times. From an individual standpoint, it's hard to say there are two better players on any team in the country -- let alone the Final Four -- then Duke's Jason Williams and Shane Battier. But from 1-to-5, Arizona may be the best. At least from a raw talent standpoint, Arizona and Duke have the best starters in the Final Four.
A huge key for Arizona, as a result of the Spartans rebounding, will be controlling the glass. Now, "controlling the glass" may not mean the Wildcats are plus-10, or plus-12 -- but rather just fight the Spartans even. Even being a minus-3 or minus-5 on the boards isn't a total negative. Arizona has to hold its own on the glass enough to limit Michigan State's easy baskets and prevent the Spartans' run-outs off defensive rebounds because Michigan State has some guys who can fill the lane as well as anyone in the country.
But the game will eventually get back to Arizona's ability to create offense. The Wildcats must make shots shots because Michigan State isn't going to allow many second chances. Arizona must convert when their athleticism allows them to get open against Michigan State.
I go back to when we played Michigan State for example. We played very well, but the reason we beat Michigan State was Corey Bradford made shots. Arizona is going to have to have somebody step up from behind the 3-point arc and make shots.
This is where Gilbert Arenas becomes crucial to Arizona's chances. While the Wildcats don't have to run plays for Arenas, he has to knock down outside shots in transition. He proved his lethal touch on the wing against us last weekend. He proved in that first half along that he's a legit scorer. Arenas can beat the man guarding him, forcing a second man to come over and try to stop him, which creates opportunities for those four other talented players around him to score.
If Arenas hits his shots, it will allow Jason Gardner, who doesn't always look to score, to jump into the offensive flow and make some shots -- not to mention give Richard Jefferson the space he needs to get free to make a play only a few players in the country can make.
So, what kind of pressure does this put on the Michigan State defense? Well, I don't see Michigan State as a pressing and trapping team. The Spartans, however, are very long and play the passing lanes very well. While Arizona will look to run, the Wildcats will need to rebound to get its transition offense going. It always goes back to rebounding with the Spartans, doesn't it?
If Arizona isn't able to score early in its offense, look for Michigan State to make Arizona run its offense further out from the basket. The Spartans have the ability to force teams away from the hoops and still not get beat on the backside of their defense.
Jefferson vs. Richardson will be a tremendous matchup. Both these players are very aggressive and can each make spectacular plays. But the player who has to play well for Arizona is Michael Wright. He is Arizona's best low-post player. While Loren Woods supplies the defense down low, Wright is the offensive force in the paint. He must make himself available down low to Gardner and Arenas. If Wright becomes a factor early, it'll just opens things up for Arenas, Gardner and Jefferson -- all very talented players -- but guys who just get better when Wright is able to battle Michigan State's beef down low. He has to deliver.
Wright is a special player, and could emerge as the key to Arizona beating Michigan State. He and Eugene Edgerson bring plenty of muscle off the bench. Arizona can matchup with Michigan State in the paint, and the ability of all five starting Wildcats to make plays gives Arizona an edge offensively.
However, what has gotten Arizona to the Final Four, and what has to continue against Michigan State, is the Wildcats' emphasis on defense and rebounding. From what I've seen, the difference in this team from when we played them in Maui and again in December, to the past 10 games, isn't on the offensive end as much as in its effort on the other end of the court. Arizona's halfcourt defense has gotten so much better from then to now.
And finally, Arizona found the chemistry all great teams find during special seasons. All the pieces of this very talented team are finally in the right place, which has allowed the Wildcats to play up to expectations and get on a roll.
Arizona is certainly a team on a roll.
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