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Friday, March 30
Duke's 3s key to 4th encounter
By Bill Self
Special to ESPN.com
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Self at Final Four
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Bill Self will provide analysis at the Final Four for ESPN.com. His Illinois team played each Final Four team this season, beating both Michigan State and Maryland, losing to Duke in the Big-Ten/ACC challenge, and going 1-2 against Arizona including a loss to the Wildcats in the Midwest Regional final.
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Heading into Saturday's game, I think both the mindsets of Duke and Maryland will benefit from the previous three games between these two ACC rivals.
These two teams have as good a book on each other as any two teams in the country. I totally anticipate a great game. I think the fact that Maryland has beaten Duke, and played them so close in the other two games, should give the Terps plenty of confidence. But on the flip side, the fact that Maryland has beaten Duke and played them so close, it serves as a warning to Duke.
Who knows what one game can do to a team, but that Jan. 27 loss to Duke certainly took a lot out of Maryland. But it's been great to see how Gary Williams has kept this team together and restored its confidence. Even though the Terps stumbled after the Duke loss, they came back and won at Duke a month later, which is the game that really erased the bad memories.
After Maryland was able to beat Duke, I really think it was a case of` "OK, the rest is history, let's move forward."
Since then, Maryland has been great. That ACC Tournament semifinal, while a loss, was a terrific game and the Terps were simply great against Stanford in the West Region final.
I like this Maryland team for a lot of reason. But the key to this weekend has to be Terrance Morris. He has to play big for the Terps, while Lonny Baxter must continue to be dominate inside.
Baxter has obviously played great of late, but even when we beat them in Maui, we thought Baxter was just a man-child down in the post. I believe, without question, he's one of the best low-post players in the country. He can step out and shoot some; he's both strong and agile. I'm not sure how Duke will play Baxter, but the Blue Devils have plenty of notes to look back on both in the NCAA Tournament and those first three games. The key for Baxter to be effective is Maryland's ability to get him isolated in the post. And to do that, Morris, Juan Dixon or Steve Blake have to make shots outside.
I haven't mentioned Jason Williams or Shane Battier yet, but don't worry, I'm getting to the Devils' 1-2 punch. First, however, I think the key player for Duke will be Carlos Boozer. Why? Because the Blue Devils know what they are going to get out of the other players, even with poor shooting nights. Williams, Battier and company will put plenty of pressure on Maryland's defense regardless of whether or not the 3s are falling.
But, much like Baxter for Maryland, if Boozer can be that guy Duke isolates inside when Maryland pressures out on its shooters, and he can deliver, it will really put Maryland at a disadvantage.
The way Duke spreads the floor, if they get production from Boozer down low on Saturday, it'll really be an added bonus. If the Terps are forced to double-down on Boozer, it just opens up things for those 3-point shooters.
Speaking of 3-point shooters, we saw Williams early in a one-point loss to Duke in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and he was as good then as he's been in the tournament. He was simply teriffic against us, and I really think he's been the best player in college basketball this season -- with Shane Battier being a real close second.
Williams is just a terrific guard. What makes him so good is how strong he is for a player his size. His strength allows him to get to the basket, make really tough shots driving to the hoop, yet also create opportunities for his teammates. If I was going to pick an MVP of the tournament so far, no question it would be Jason Williams. His performance against UCLA would elevate him above the rest right now.
Duke will obviously shoot the 3-pointer -- the Blue Devils have shot 1,003 three-pointers in getting to the Final Four (39 percent made). Even when we played them back at the end of November, when Boozer was healthy, they shot a ton of 3s (7 of 25 against us). Even in transition, Duke will stop and shoot the 3-pointer -- even when it has numbers. So, defensively, Maryland will have to build its transition defense out to shooters. When we played Duke, we got out to shooters first, instead of getting into the lane in transition and building out. Duke forces a team to change its defensive schemes because of its long-range shooting.
What Maryland must at least try to do is attack Duke inside. It just doesn't make sense to get into a jump-shooting contest with Battier, Williams, Michael Dunleavy, Nate James and Chris Duhon.
Defensively, Duke's pressure will bother a team. It bothered us. But by attacking Duke inside it can offset the turnovers created by the Duke pressure. You really have to get after Duke on the glass. Of the four teams, Duke creates the most pressure off its defense and can really harass a team into problems. Maryland, however, is athletic enough to break the Duke press and get transition baskets. Steve Blake is a heady point guard, and his backcourt mate Dixon can make shots.
Maryland is a team that has proven it can play -- and beat -- Duke. But I think Duke is a little better in overall matchups. I don't know how the fourth meeting will turn out. All I know is it's just going to be a fabulous game.
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