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Saturday, March 31Final quotients favor MSU, Duke By Joe Lunardi Special to ESPN.com Sister Mary Hoopalot, my fifth grade teacher, said I was being punished and had to write this 100 times: "Maryland is not a fraud." "Maryland is not a fraud." "Maryland is not a fraud." "Maryland is not?" The truth is that whatever Maryland was in December no longer matters. This weekend the Terps are legitimate national championship contenders, as capable of cutting down the nets in Minneapolis as any other team in what shapes up as a terrific Final Four. When was the last time every member of the Final Four really and truly had a chance to win it all? Not last year, when Wisconsin was a great story (but a weak sister in terms of talent, at least compared to its Final Four partners). The same could probably be said for Ohio State in 1999. Not since 1998 -- when Kentucky, Utah, Stanford and North Carolina gathered in San Antonio -- could you make a serious case for all four teams standing tall at the end. And that year was an exception. If, for instance, the Final Fours from 1996 (Mississippi State), 1995 (Oklahoma State) and 1994 (Florida) were replayed 10 times, it's still unlikely the teams listed parenthetically here would have emerged with the trophy. That's not a knock, just reality based on the talent at hand. Which brings us back to Minneapolis and the 2001 Final Four ... For longer than I can remember, I have selected or helped select the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook Top 40. These preseason evaluations, unlike those in many other publications, are geared for March more than November. The goal has always been to project who the best teams WILL BE, not who the best teams ARE. This year, in my Blue Ribbon farewell, the preseason Top 5 was: 1) Duke 2) Arizona 3) Stanford 4) Maryland 5) Michigan State Never before has the Final Four so accurately reflected our preseason rankings. These five teams had the most talent in October, and either played like it all season (Duke, Stanford, Michigan State) or picked the critical homestretch to put it all together (Arizona, Maryland). All are more than capable of winning two more games. So, if you hear the word "upset" coming from the Metrodome either Saturday or Monday, it will be a misnomer. I'd write even more about this, but that's not why you clicked here. You want to know who I think will win, and you want the numbers to back it up. First, let's compare the respective teams' Division I winning percentage against their Adjusted Winning Percentage. The latter subtracts all sub-150 RPI victories and gives double- and triple-credit, respectively, for Top 50 and Top 25 victories (for good measure, we've also thrown in updated RPI and schedule strength data).
1) Arizona's defense is underrated. 2) Michigan State's offense is underrated. 3) That game will turn on which of the "underrated" units performs better. 4) Duke is content to let other teams run with them, knowing they are better at it. 5) Maryland does the same thing, just not quite as well. 6) Maryland-Duke IV will again be high scoring. We have compiled a few more statistical categories on the Final Four teams, mostly just for fun. They include PPS (Points Per Shot), FT Ratio (the number of free throws taken relative to their opponents), Assist/FG Ratio (how many baskets are credited with an assist?) and Assist/TO Ratio (team-wide application of the traditional point guard measurement):
1) Michigan State over Arizona in a squeaker. 2) Duke by a touchdown over Maryland. 3) Duke by a field goal over Michigan State in a classic offense/defense showdown on Monday night. Good luck!  Send this story to a friend | Most sent stories
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