Originally Published: December 14, 2009
Dallas Cowboys StadiumAP Photo/Tony GutierrezUNC-Texas will be the first college basketball game ever played at the palatial Cowboys Stadium.

North Carolina vs. Texas (Cowboys Stadium)

By Jay Bilas
ESPN.com

UNC strengths: The Tar Heels are used to running and can play at a fast pace, but not nearly as fast or efficient as the pace Carolina threw at everyone last year. Kentucky was able to run with the Heels and, in some stretches, run right past them. But Texas has the depth and athletes to keep up with UNC.

North Carolina is efficient, especially in the post. Carolina averages more than 84 points on 51 percent shooting, and the Heels get to the free-throw line (the most efficient place from which to score on a basketball court) more than 10 more times per game more than their opponents. The Heels outrebound their foes by 9.8 caroms per game (with Ed Davis and Deon Thompson each averaging at least 3 offensive rebounds per game).

Point guard Larry Drew, the biggest question mark entering the season, has played more like an exclamation point. Drew has played with poise and control, and is averaging 9 points, 6.8 assists and 2.9 turnovers per game. While not a speed merchant, Drew plays with good pace and has done a very nice job running the team. He has also hit some really important shots and has greatly improved his shooting from last season.

The strength of this team is in the frontcourt with Thompson, Davis, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, David Wear and Travis Wear. The Heels have to go inside and play inside-out. If North Carolina can get the ball inside and shoot more free throws, the Heels have a really good chance to win.

UNC concerns: Roy Williams' guards are not consistent through 40 minutes, and he doesn't know what he will get from his backcourt. Dexter Strickland is very talented and will be very good, but he is streaky right now. To win away from home against a top-5 team, Carolina needs quality guard play. The true strength of this team is up front, but that doesn't mean that the guards don't have to contribute and play well. They do.

Also, while the Heels are not easy to score on, they are not as stingy as they should be. They do not turn over opponents as they should. In addition, Carolina's five best scorers all shoot better than 50 percent from the floor, but only two of them have more assists than turnovers. The really good news for UNC is that the younger Heels will not be starry-eyed with Texas. After all, they have already played a murderer's row of Ohio State, Syracuse, Michigan State and Kentucky.

Texas strengths: The Longhorns have great depth, athleticism, balance and physical defense. While Texas has not played the same slate of giants that Carolina has played, the Longhorns' defense is much stingier. Texas is holding opponents to just 32 percent shooting and only 22 percent from 3-point range. The Horns are averaging more than 10 rebounds per game more than their opponents and are putting up 85 points a game on around 52 percent shooting from the floor. Texas turns the ball 14 times a game to North Carolina's 16 miscues per game, but UNC's turnover rate is trending down.

[+] EnlargeDamion James
Danny Medley/US PresswireDamion James will be a handful for whichever of North Carolina's bigs are tasked with defending him.

The Texas frontcourt is pulling a big load, led by Damion James and Dexter Pittman, but Texas has better balance than Carolina, with five players averaging double figures. James is the best player, averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds and 1.3 steals while shooting 54 percent from the field and 45 percent from 3-point range. He is also getting to the free-throw line close to six times per game.

Texas concerns: Offensive efficiency is a big concern for Texas. Even though the Horns score more easily than they did last season, they are still not a great perimeter shooting team. To win, Texas will have to defend, rebound and run to get easy baskets. I am not sure that UT's half-court offense is enough to get the Longhorns past North Carolina.

Key stats: Paint touches and defensive field goal percentage. Texas will make it tough on North Carolina to get the ball inside by pressuring the ball and taking away vision. If Carolina can get the ball into the paint and get high-percentage shots, the Heels have a great chance to win. And Carolina has to get shots at the basket without so many empty possessions.

Matchup nightmare: Damion James, Texas. James has a remarkable 40 double-doubles in his career and is averaging one for the season right now (15.4 ppg, 10.1 rpg). James can go inside or out and can be a difficult cover for guys like Deon Thompson and Ed Davis. He can also be a load for a smaller defender like Marcus Ginyard. James can be the difference in this game.

Who wins? I thought Carolina's experience would carry the day at Kentucky, but that proved incorrect as the Wildcats powered past the Tar Heels in a close one at the end. Texas has the better overall team defense, but Carolina has the better and more efficient offense. I think the Longhorns' defense and depth will prevail in this one, but just barely. Give me Texas by a field goal.

Duke vs. Gonzaga (Madison Square Garden)

By Jay Bilas
ESPN.com

Duke strengths: This is a big team, but it is a team of scoring guards. In the first nine games this season, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Andre Dawkins have taken 70 percent of the team's shots and scored 70 percent of the team's points. Duke's big men are quality athletes with good skills, but they have not been major contributors on the scoreboard.

The Blue Devils have versatile and smart scorers and playmakers, and three perimeter players in Scheyer, Smith and Singler who know how to play. Scheyer is one of the most efficient and effective players in college basketball. He is crafty, uses fakes and has an uncanny knack for making the right play. Coming off a near triple-double with 36 points, nine rebounds and nine assists on 11-of-13 shooting, Scheyer averages 18 points and 5.7 assists and has a 6-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Singler and Smith are each averaging more than 16 points per game, but neither is shooting better than 42 percent from the floor. Dawkins is the best shooter, knocking in 52 percent of his 3-point attempts, and co-leads the team with 23 made 3-point field goals. To beat Duke, you have to slow down the perimeter quartet of Scheyer, Singler, Smith and Dawkins.

Duke concerns: Depth and defense. Duke is a very good defensive team, but the Blue Devils' D is very different this season. Because Duke does not have a point guard who pressures the ball like the ones Coach K had become accustomed to with Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Steve Wojciechowski, Jason Williams and Chris Duhon, he has adjusted his defense to suit his current personnel.

Duke is playing more containment defense and not getting out in passing lanes as in years past. It is easier to make passes around the perimeter against the Devils, but penetrating and getting into the lane is difficult. Duke is forcing more challenged shots and forcing fewer turnovers, but it is equally effective. The Blue Devils are holding opponents to 39 percent shooting from the floor and are outrebounding opponents by more than eight boards per game. Duke's defense is not quite as suffocating or intimidating as usual, which may make it easier for the better teams to believe they can attack it successfully. A case in point was Wisconsin. The Badgers turned the ball over only four times in 40 minutes against Duke, mostly because there was not enough pressure on their offense. A few possessions made the difference.

To beat Gonzaga, Duke will have to turn the Zags over, and Duke's big men will have to play good defense without fouling and slow down Gonzaga's Robert Sacre and Elias Harris.

[+] EnlargeElias Harris
AP Photo/Eugene TannerFrosh Elias Harris averages 13.3 ppg and a team-leading 6.9 rpg.

Gonzaga strengths: The Zags' starting lineup is very skilled and balanced, with scorers and skilled athletes at every position. Few teams have more complete and skilled players than Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray, but Duke may be one of them. Demetri Goodson is ultra-quick and is very good putting pressure on the ball. He is good in transition and will pass ahead, but he is not a playmaking guard that finds people. The best playmakers on the Gonzaga team are Bouldin and Gray, who lead Gonzaga in assists. The Zags turn it over more than they assist, and Cincinnati proved that you can disrupt Bouldin with double-teams.

Inside, Gonzaga can be special. Sacre and Harris can score in a variety of ways. Sacre is strong and agile and can score with his back to the basket. Keeping him from getting deep position in or around the lane is vital. Harris is a different type of scorer. No player on the floor will play with more energy and vigor. He can catch it off the lane and make an isolation move, one-on-one. Duke's best interior defender is Lance Thomas, who will have to match Harris' intensity and motor -- and do it without fouling.

Gonzaga concerns: Depth is a concern, and so is Bouldin. Will he play at full strength? If not, the Zags will have too high a hurdle to clear. Gonzaga has bodies, but not many of them off the bench are experienced. This is a team full of gamers and competitors, though, so experience can be overcome. Duke, however, is deeper with experienced players that can come in and contribute. Perhaps bigger concerns, though, are turnovers and rebounding. Duke is the better rebounding team and the better passing team. Gonzaga will have to make plays, but also have to get the ball inside effectively to win.

Key stat: Free throws. Gonzaga shoots more free throws than Duke, and a wide variety of players take them. If the Zags are to win, they have to be able to get the ball inside and get good shots against Duke's interior defense. Gonzaga is not a great offensive rebounding team, but it has better scoring big men than the Blue Devils. Harris and Sacre have to stay out of foul trouble.

Matchup nightmare: Elias Harris, Gonzaga. Thomas should guard him to start, but he cannot be expected to guard him for 40 minutes without fouling. Watch how Harris catches the ball three steps off the block and works his way into the lane or to the rim. He is a terrific low-post scorer and face-up driver.

Who wins? Duke plays Madison Square Garden more than Billy Joel. I think Scheyer will be the difference. The Blue Devils win another one at MSG.

Other games to keep an eye on

By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

Saturday

Michigan at Kansas, noon (ESPN): It's ESPN's "Green Game" from Lawrence, Kan., but can Michigan make it a "good" game? The Wolverines have been off against quality opponents this season. But it would be a mistake to sleep on Michigan if it can cut this game into a half-court affair.

If Manny Harris doesn't try to do too much, the Wolverines could make this interesting. The Jayhawks have been rolling of late and add former starter Brady Morningstar for this game after he was disciplined for the fall semester after a DUI charge. Kansas has a tough home stretch with this game and then Cal's coming to Phog Allen. When the season started these two games looked like two of the toughest nonconference matchups the Jayhawks would play this season. They still may be, but only if Michigan and Cal can live up to their preseason expectations.

Xavier at Butler, 2 p.m. (ESPN2): Butler needs to prove that it can be a dominant home-court team, while Xavier could use another marquee win to prove its relevance outside the Atlantic 10 this season. The Musketeers are finally feeling good about themselves after a disappointing show at the Old Spice Classic and a 15-point loss to upstart Kansas State. But Xavier is coming off a season-changing overtime win over bitter rival Cincinnati last week, and Terrell Holloway played with as much confidence as he has ever had in his career.

Meanwhile, Butler finally got its signature win, even if it came against the Evan Turner-less Ohio State. Matt Howard, though, continues to get into foul trouble, having fouled out of six of the Bulldogs' 10 games, including the last two.

Texas Tech at Wichita State, 8 p.m.: No one had the Red Raiders in the Top 25 before the season. Yet, here is 9-0 Texas Tech, playing as well as any team in the Big 12 not named Texas or Kansas. But the next two weeks will tell us plenty about the Red Raiders with this road trip and a game at fellow undefeated New Mexico coming up next week. Beating Wichita State on the road would be more impressive than Tech's win at TCU last week. When the Shockers are on, Wichita's Charles Koch Arena is one of the tougher environments in the country. Wichita State (9-1) has been on the rise since Gregg Marshall made his imprint on the program after a transition season as Mark Turgeon's successor. The Shockers' only loss was to Pitt in Kansas City in the CBE semifinals.

Kansas State at Alabama, 8:30 p.m.: Cornell went down to Tuscaloosa, Ala., and beat the developing Tide. So shouldn't K-State? Not so fast. This is not a given. Just ask No. 4 Purdue, which had to rally from 16 down last weekend to beat the Tide. Alabama has the inside presence with JaMychal Green to be a pest against supposed NCAA tournament-level teams.

Kansas State, armed with its highest ranking since 1988, will have to guard against being too full of itself. KSU coach Frank Martin's intensity will probably prevent that from occurring. K-State beat UNLV in the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas last week, proving this team is tough on the road. While the Tide aren't going to the NCAAs, this would still be a true road win for KSU that would matter in March.

Sunday

Florida State at Georgia Tech, 5:30 p.m.: The Seminoles had a bit of a scare against Auburn on Thursday night but should be ready to match the Yellow Jackets in the ACC opener for both squads. It will be interesting to watch some of the top big men in the game with Solomon Alabi in the post for the Seminoles and the combination of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal for Georgia Tech.

Don't underestimate the importance of getting off to a 1-0 start in the ultracompetitive ACC. In the second half of the FSN doubleheader on Sunday night, NC State and Wake Forest will be gunning for the same thing in Winston-Salem.

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