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Tuesday, April 17, 2001
Williams would fill draft's No. 1 void
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
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NBA scouts and player personnel directors don't believe Duke's Jason Williams will stay in school. Well, at least they don't want to believe it.
Why? If Williams and Chinese center Yao Ming aren't in the draft, the NBA is left without a consensus No. 1 pick.
|  | | Eddy Curry is a lottery pick, but not worth taking first overall in NBA scouts' minds. |
Ming's status is in flux and a number of NBA personnel say the U.S.-Chinese spy plane flap won't help Ming's chances to be released from any Chinese professional responsibilities in time for the June draft.
Meanwhile, Williams continues to be consistent in his pronouncements that he will return for his junior season. He said it in February. He said it in March. He reiterated it in April after winning the national title. Now, even is mother is saying it.
"We don't understand why everyone won't take Jason at his word," Duke assistant Steve Wojciechowski said. "He just wants to be a college student and be left alone. Fortunately, he's got two great resources in his parents and coach K (Mike Krzyzewski)."
The Williams family will probably get some help from the Duke sports information staff to alleviate the heavy call log over the next month. Williams is in school finishing the semester. Underclassmen have until May 13 to have a letter postmarked to the NBA declaring for the draft. They can withdraw up until June 20, a week before the June 27 draft as long as they don't sign with an agent.
"I won't believe it until I see his name isn't on the draft list," said one scout, who like the rest of the NBA doesn't want their names used on quotes on underclassmen for fears of a fine.
Williams told every reporter who listened during the season that he wants to stay at Duke, at least for another year, and play with Rutgers transfer and good friend Dahntay Jones. While he won a national title, he has a chance to be the player of the year in 2001-02. Underclassmen who have declared like Arizona's Richard Jefferson don't understand why he would return. Their envious of his national title and know he would be the top pick.
"Jason is in the top three any year he comes out," said one player personnel director. "Why wait for another year? He's already won it all."
If Williams stays in school, then the NBA is left to find a top pick among a lot of "upside" and "potential" big-time talents. A No. 1 pick brings a ton of expectations on the player and the team that is drafting. And NBA teams shudder at the thought of any one of the following potential top 10 players -- Seton Hall freshman Eddie Griffin, high school seniors Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler, Duke senior Shane Battier, Charlotte freshman Rodney White, Villanova junior Michael Bradley, Arizona senior Loren Woods, Michigan State sophomore Jason Richardson and Iowa State senior Jamaal Tinsley -- being the No. 1 pick.
The only other two underclassmen who could crack the top 10 who haven't yet declared are North Carolina sophomore guard Joseph Forte and Florida signee Kwame Brown.
The No. 1 pick is supposed to make a team better -- immediately. Taking Griffin, Curry, Chandler or Brown would mean the team would have to wait a few seasons. The likely four teams who could be picking No. 1 -- Chicago, Washington, Vancouver or Golden State -- can't wait three seasons to see their top pick develop.
"If Jason Williams isn't No. 1, or in the draft for that matter, then there's no clear cut No. 1," said one prominent NBA scout. "It used to be picks 1-5 in the lottery were going to be starters. Picks 6-10 would be major contributors. But that's no longer the case. Look at Marcus Fizer (picked fourth by Chicago) and Stromile Swift (picked second by Vancouver). It's not a good year if Williams and Ming aren't in the draft. They can change the entire scope of the draft."
The consensus among scouts and player personnel directors is that teams can "live with" Griffin at No. 3 or any of the high school players like the Clippers did when they took Darius Miles at No. 3 last year.
"No one usually labels those picks busts, at least not yet," the scout said. "But the No. 1 pick is completely different. If the Nets had taken Stromile and played him as little as they did in Vancouver then they would have heard about it."
New Jersey drafted Martin, a Cincinnati senior and the consensus No. 1 last year, with the top pick. A broken leg sidelined him in March. A healthy Martin would have challenged Orlando's Mike Miller -- the fifth pick -- for rookie of the year.
The lottery, while not the order, is set with the four above mentioned teams joining Boston, New Jersey, Atlanta, Cleveland, the L.A. Clippers, Detroit, Denver, Seattle and Houston. The reason some scouts talk about Williams going top three is a few teams could either pass on him, or take him and then trade him if they got the No. 1 pick. Houston, with Steve Francis, Cleveland, with Andre Miller, Seattle, with Gary Payton, and New Jersey, with Stephon Marbury, are set at the point. But Williams would be too valuable a commodity to not pick and trade with the No. 1 pick.
A few teams even thought Williams could declare and then withdraw a week later once the lottery is determined if he didn't like which team was picking No. 1. But that is unlikely. Duke maintains that it isn't putting on any fullcourt press to convince him to stay, because he hasn't given them any reason.
Scouts cite Virginia Tech's Michael Vick and Swift as examples why they won't count out Williams just yet. Vick made a public announcement he would return but then declared for the NFL draft. Swift did the same at LSU last year but then declared a few days before the NBA draft deadline.
Florida coach Billy Donovan always stays on his recruits after he signs them and that's why it's no surprise the Gators coaching staff continues to re-recruit Brown to ensure he comes to Gainesville. The Georgia native has the physical tools that Chandler and Curry lack, and is considered more of a sure thing in the top five. Scouts look at the 6-11, 240-pound Brown as a skilled post player who can handle the ball, pass and plays unselfish -- a rarity for a highly coddled high school all-American.
"What's wrong with a kid waiting until the last minute to decide," said one scout. "These guys are still in school. It's no different than a 35-year old professional who goes back and forth on a job offer. But this one is either millions for these guys or no money."
The speculation will end May 13. Until then, the NBA better come up with a Plan B for a No. 1 pick without Williams or Ming ... just in case.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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