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Spartans, Ducks on upset alert

MSU, Oregon face dangerous underdogs at home; other Week 7 picks, upset odds

Updated: October 13, 2011, 5:58 PM ET
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider

Every week during the season, Will Harris will conspire with the computers (using TeamRankings' game predictor) and the wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games -- and give his picks for who'll come out on top.

The Florida State Seminoles were the only ranked upset victim last week, with the Florida Gators also dropping out of the polls after losing to the LSU Tigers. Upset Picks found another outright underdog in the Kansas State Wildcats, but missed with the other purple Wildcats and ultimately suffered our first losing week of the season against the spread.

The 3-4 mark moves us to 28-18 on the year against the number, as we get ready for the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy and the rest of the Week 7 action.

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is favored by 2 points
TeamRankings win odds for Michigan: 48 percent

Between Michigan State's last national championship in 1966 and Rich Rodriguez' 2007 arrival in Ann Arbor, the Spartans won more games in a season than Michigan just once and defeated the Wolverines fewer than one time in every four meetings. Now the Spartans are riding a three-game winning streak against their rivals and are equipped to make it four in a row with a capable offense and the nation's leading total defense.

Brady Hoke has reunited the Michigan fan base and assembled an excellent coaching staff. His regime will probably see Michigan reclaim the upper hand in this series, but despite an undefeated start and lofty ranking, the Wolverines can't count on breaking the losing streak to Sparty in Year 1 of the Hoke era.

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