Discussion

Upset odds and picks for Week 5

Buckeyes-Spartans, Longhorns-Cowboys and other top games this week

Originally Published: September 27, 2012
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider

Every week during the season, Will Harris will check with the computers (using TeamRankings' win odds) and wiseguys to evaluate the upset possibilities in college football's most compelling games and give his picks for who'll come out on top.

Week 4 saw 14 underdogs win outright, though Oklahoma and UCLA were the only ranked upset victims. Upset Watch delivered Kansas State's road win, along with two other double-digit underdogs who won outright.

A 7-3 week moves us to 24-16 on the season, but Week 5 brings the toughest set of numbers yet. As always, we'll break down the biggest games and hunt for value around the entire slate.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is favored by 2.5 points
TeamRankings win odds for Ohio State: 39 percent

The Ohio State defense struggled with UAB's dink-and-dunk, sideline-to-sideline passing game but is better equipped to stop downhill attacks like the Le'Veon Bell-led offense the Buckeyes will see in Spartan Stadium. Michigan State is looking for improvement from its youthful throw-and-catch personnel, because at present Bell is the whole show -- he's even returning punts now.

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