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| Tuesday, August 6 Smart money is on the QBs in the Heisman race By Joe Wojciechowski ESPN.com |
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It's THE award in college football -- the Heisman Trophy. While the award, presented to the nation's outstanding player, is won on the field, the politicking, campaigning and discussions have already started. Not wanting to miss out on the fun, we're breaking down the Heisman the best way we know how -- by handicapping the contenders. Let the record show this is strictly for entertainment purposes. And, to quote the wise David Letterman, "Please, no wagering."
The Chalk
Good Odds Chris Simms, QB, Texas: 8/1. Like a thoroughbred that just needs the right conditions to run, Simms looks ready to explode. The senior with the pure pedigree controls a powerful offense loaded with a great line, powerful RB and possibly the best receivers in the country. Without anyone looking over his shoulder (Simms never worked well with blinders), this could be the year he lives up to the potential. Eli Manning, QB, Ole Miss: 10/1. Another QB with great bloodlines, this one will have to silently win voters over as dad, Archie, shut down his publicity campaign early. Ironically, though, stopping the campaign may have thrust more light on Manning. The junior has the look of greatness and should get plenty of TV time with games vs. Florida and at LSU and Georgia. Casey Clausen, QB, Tennessee: 12/1. The junior who's been constantly overshadowed finally gets to be Top Gun. Without a featured RB, Clausen is the one who must make the Vols offense run smoothly. He completed 64 percent of his passes last year for 2,969 yards and 22 TDs. Those numbers should improve and with good games against Miami and Florida in Knoxville, Clausen could be a player in the race. Jason Gesser, QB, Washington State: 15/1. We should believe. We know it, but yet we're skeptical. The senior threw for 2,729 yards and 25 TDs to lead the Cougars to a 10-2 record last year. We know he has great receivers, yet something just doesn't work. It's been 12 years since WSU posted back-to-back winning seasons. So, a few wins -- including one at Ohio State on Sept. 14 -- and his odds start getting better. Dave Ragone, QB, Louisville: 15/1. This is a flat-out example of The Man keeping a good QB down. It's not Ragone's fault he plays in Conference USA. The senior's numbers (3,056 yards, 23 TDs) are as good as anyone's but the quality of competition isn't. A big effort at home vs. Florida State on Sept. 26 would put Ragone in the mix.
Mild Longshots Kliff Kingsbury, QB, Texas Tech: 20/1. Some say the system made Kingsbury, but we've never seen a system complete 69 percent of its passes. Statistically, the senior's the Big 12's best QB and that's a pretty good league, right? Good games against Ole Miss and NC State in the first month of the season could really help his cause. Anthony Davis, RB, Wisconsin: 25/1. The running back factory that is Wisconsin is churning out another one. Davis, a sophomore, has good speed and gained nearly 1,500 yards last year, but needs to increase that total and Wisconsin needs to increase its win total. Cedric Benson, RB, Texas: 25/1. The sophomore will be the featured back in the Texas attack and should improve on the 1,053 yards and 12 TDs he tallied last year. Problem is, he may not be the best offensive player on his team. Roy Williams, WR, Texas: 25/1. The label of best player on the Texas offense may belong to this junior. He has the size, speed and skills of a NFL receiver. Problem is there are too many weapons in the 'Horns offense and that may hurt his Heisman chances. Charles Rogers, WR, Michigan State: 25/1. Let the record show the junior averaged 21.1 yards a catch last year. That's over one-fifth of the football field each catch. Amazing. That number will likely go down this year, but don't expect his total yardage (1,200) or TDs (12) to slip too much. The Spartans could be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. A favorable schedule sets them up for a possible 8-0 start before heading to Michigan. If that happens, how Rogers plays in Ann Arbor could determine how much of a player he is in the Heisman race. Kelley Washington, WR, Tennessee: 30/1. The sophomore admits he often got by on athletic ability alone last season and now is more of a receiver. He'll have to adjust to constant double- and possibly even triple-teams, but if the Vols make a run at the national title, Washington figures to be a reason why. Reggie Williams, WR, Washington: 30/1. The kind of guy you'd pay money to see play, Williams is that exciting of a player. As a true freshman he made some veteran DBs just look plain silly. He'll get an early shot to show whether or not he's a contender in the opener at Michigan Aug. 31.
Longshots Andre Johnson, WR, Miami: 45-1. The junior is best receiver on the best team in the country. That counts for something, right? Lee Suggs, RB, Virginia Tech: 50-1. Before the injury and the emergence of Kevin Jones, we'd have already sent him the ticket to New York. Now, some questions remain about the senior. Dahraan Diedrick, RB, Nebraska: 50-1. The senior has the potential to put up the big numbers for the Huskers. Philip Rivers, QB, NC State: 50-1. Norm Chow called him as good as any QB he's coached and that's good enough for us. The numbers will be there and if Rivers leads the Wolfpack to another upset win over FSU this year, the junior could emerge as a contender.
Better Off Playing the Stock Market Defensive player: 500-1. We love the big guys. William Joseph, E.J. Henderson, Michael Boulware, Boss Bailey, Mike Doss, Darnell Dockett, Eugene Wilson are all big-time players, but unless these guys team up to knock every QB, RB and WR out cold, the Heisman's just a dream. Offensive lineman: 2,500-1. Just remember the statue is of the guy running, not the guy opening the hole for him. Kicker, 1,000,000-1. Thanks for playing. Try again. Joe Wojciechowski is the college football editor at ESPN.com. He can be reached at joseph.j.wojciechowski@espn.com.
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