Going back further doesn't fully reflect the complete impact of the salary cap, which started in 1993 and didn't start breaking up quality teams until around the time the Packers established themselves as a Super Bowl team in the mid-1990s.

Schedules, combined with the salary cap, go hand-in-hand in determining a team's fate. Harder games mean more solid hits to the roster and the chances of injuries. Plus, there is the emotional and mental drains of playing tough back-to-back games against winning teams. To keep top starters in the world of the salary cap, winning teams have to sacrifice experienced backups, so a couple of injuries leave those winning teams vulnerable at key positions.

Teams with the easy schedule can better survive the attrition of the season if they have to gear up for only five or six big games. Plus, confidence is fueled by victories -- whipping sub-.500 teams keeps locker rooms happy and prevents players from turning against each other during troubled times.

	Head coach Bill Cowher and the Steelers have what looks to be a soft schedule.

The Ravens maximized what can happen because of an easy schedule. Everyone knew that they had one of the greatest defenses of this era. Personnel chief Ozzie Newsome and defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis had built that defense over a period of years. Brian Billick was hired to structure the offense, but he turned into a master motivator by surviving a 21-quarter touchdown drought.

What helped was this: The Ravens won the first two games during that drought against teams that ended up with losing records. Three loses followed, all against teams with 8-8 or better records. But three teams turned out to be half of the winning teams the Ravens played all season.

Billick switched to quarterback Trent Dilfer, the defense stayed great the rest of the season and the Ravens got on a roll against bad teams. Down their regular-season stretch, the Ravens won their final seven games, five of them against teams with combined records of 16-64. And then they won the Super Bowl.

How does that apply to this season. Personally, I believe that a few of those 1999 juggernauts, such as the Titans and Colts, will bounce back. Vermeil's Chiefs could also be a sleeper team. Those evaluations are more on roster evaluations than a strict look at the schedule, and based on my woeful forecast that the Rams would blow out the Patriots in the Super Bowl, I feel uncomfortable making any firm prediction.

But the schedule could favor a Super Bowl matchup of the Steelers and the Bucs, with the Packers also knocking on the door. Why the Steelers? Their strength-of-schedule is the second easiest at 110-130 behind the Texans at 113-143. Only five times do they face teams with winning records in 2001, so the key is getting through early games against the Patriots and Raiders.

Naturally, there is no guarantee that teams that were bad last year would be bad this year. And vice versa. But assuming teams don't improve dramatically, the Steelers have an edge. The Ravens are two of those games against winning teams, and the salary cap forced them to break up their roster. The Bucs are the only other team with a winning record that the Steelers face.

The Bucs are similarly lucky because of the schedule. Even though their .480 strength of schedule (123-133) is the ninth easiest, they face only six teams with winning records. Like the Steelers, the Bucs legitimately have to worry about only one team in the battle for the division -- the Saints. The Falcons and Panthers are in the rebuilding mode. They do have to gear up for big games against the Rams, Steelers, Packers, Bears and Eagles.

The Bengals would qualify as a team given an opportunity to make a playoff run because of the schedule, though I still have a hard time endorsing the Bengals because they have done so little to improve their roster during the offseason. The Bengals have the fourth-easiest schedule (.463, 111-129) and, like the Steelers, they face only five winning teams from last year, including the Ravens.

If the Bengals get off to a good start, who knows?

Still, the difficulty of schedule will hold back a few teams from being the surprise team. The Bills, Chargers, Cardinals and Chiefs have 10 games against winning teams. Of the four, the Chiefs and Chargers improved their talent enough to challenge, but the schedule could hold them down.

Teams to watch with six or less winning teams include the Titans, Colts, Browns and Redskins.

But if you want to use the schedule theory, take a good look at the Steelers and Bucs. It has worked before.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.