Tuley's Take: Week 9 NFL picks

OK, gambling gods, you've proved my point. Enough is enough.

During my hot streak in this space, I warned about the inevitable regression to the mean. No handicapper can maintain a 70 percent winning percentage against widely available numbers. It's just too difficult of a task.

But enough is enough.

I went 3-6 two weeks ago and 4-4 last week to drop to 64.1 percent overall. That seems like a reasonable middle ground to me, but what do I have to do to appease the gambling gods?

Last week: 4-4 ATS | Year to date: 41-23 (64.1 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.

Spread: Broncos minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Broncos
SuperContestants: 222-129 in favor of Broncos

Public perception: It seems the whole world is on the Broncos' bandwagon after their 34-14 rout of the Saints last Sunday night. Peyton Manning is a lock for Comeback Player of the Year. Plus, Denver's defense is third in the AFC in yards allowed per game.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are also starting to like the Broncos more and more. In fact, they're tied for sixth with the undefeated Falcons in the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll that I'm part of at ESPN Insider, despite being 4-3.

Tuley's take: I'm still not sold on the Broncos (note to Sal Selvaggio, one of the other panelists on the Bettors' Poll: I guess I'm the one keeping the Broncos from being ranked even higher). Granted, they've had a tough early schedule, but they're still only 4-3 and not as great as everyone is making them out to be. The Bengals, a live home dog (which are 22-17 ATS, 56.4 percent) coming off their bye (those teams 9-5 ATS), should put forth their best effort. The pick:

To see Dave Tuley's analysis and picks against the spread for every Week 9 NFL game, become an ESPN Insider today.