Tuley's Take: Week 17 NFL picks
Where the wiseguys and the public agree (and don't)
It didn't make up for my 0-6 record the week before, but last week I was happy to at least get back on the winning track, going 4-3-1 against the spread.
I consider that shooting par as 4-3 (discarding the push) is 57.1 percent and right around my winning percentages for the season. My overall record stands at 69-53-2 (56.6 percent), which slightly improved from 56.5 percent last week. My preferred underdog play record is now 58-41-2 (58.6 percent), down just a tick from last week's 58.7 percent.
Week 17 is always a tough handicapping exercise as we have some teams fighting for playoff spots while others are playing out the string. If you're betting on teams in must-win situations, the oddsmakers are going to make you pay a premium. And remember, teams in must-win situations don't always win; if these teams were so good that they could win whenever they wanted, they wouldn't be in a must-win situation in the first place.
This week, I'm taking a number of underdogs that are getting more points than I feel they should due to the lines being inflated.
Last week: 4-3-1 ATS | Year to date: 69-53-2 (56.6 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of Friday afternoon.
Spread: Bills minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Bills
Public perception: Both teams playing out the string. Given their druthers (hey, I don't think I've heard or used that expression since I was knee-high to a grasshopper), the public has chosen to go against the QB circus in New York.
Wiseguys' view: There's no apparent sharp side here, but this line has wavered between 3 and 3.5, so it's a game in which no wiseguy worth his salt will be laying minus-3.5 or taking only plus-3.
Tuley's Take: I can't find much reason to back either side, though the Bills are 4-2 ATS as a favorite this year (2-7 ATS as a dog), so they tend to play well against other mediocre teams that they're supposed to beat. The pick:
To see Dave Tuley's analysis and picks against the spread for every Week 17 NFL game, become an ESPN Insider today.
NFL WEEK 17 COVERAGE
Fantasy Football on ESPN.com
NFL Nation blog | Leaders NFL Stadium Guides | QBR ratings
Playoff scenarios | Playoff Machine