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Divisional round upset chances

What are the upset odds for the Seahawks, Packers, Texans and Ravens?

Originally Published: January 8, 2013
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire

Last week, we here at numberFire projected the entire NFL playoffs, leading to a Denver Broncos win in Super Bowl XLVII. We were correct on all four of our wild-card picks, and this week we're looking at the upset chances for every underdog.

Although the Atlanta Falcons head into their first game with home-field advantage, the Seahawks top our upset picks with a slightly better than 50-50 chance to knock Matt Ryan out of the playoffs after only one game for the second straight year. The smell of an upset permeates the other NFC matchup as well, with Aaron Rodgers and his merry-go-round of receivers poised to give the San Francisco 49ers all they can handle.

The AFC is a little less prone to upsets in our projections, both a function of how strong the favorites are -- the Patriots and Broncos are No. 1 and No. 2 in our algorithmic Power Rankings, respectively -- and of how eminently beatable both Baltimore and Houston looked in their openers.

Will we go 100 percent yet again? Can someone please water the lawn at FedEx Field? Stay with us throughout the playoffs as we project each game with an eye on the underdog.

Please note that all rankings refer to the opponent-adjusted efficiency as calculated by numberFire, not the gross yardage.

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