Super Bowl XXXVI

Five reasons why Rams will win
By Tom Oates
Special to ESPN.com

While most reporters covering Super Bowl XXXVI in New Orleans have really hard jobs, such as securing dinner reservations in the French Quarter or getting Bill Belichick to say something quotable, mine is as easy as running up the score on the Carolina Panthers.

The assignment is to come up with five reasons why the St. Louis Rams will win the Super Bowl.

Five?

Is that all?


	Aeneas Williams, acquired from Arizona in the offseason, had four interceptions during the regular season.

Why stop there? Why not go for 500? Or 5,000?

There is no shortage of reasons why the Rams will beat the New England Patriots in the Superdome Sunday night. Some are just better than others.

So, after sifting through all of the relevant facts, trends and statements by the principals, here are the five biggest reasons why coach Mike Martz's Rams will beat the Patriots, plus a bonus reason. (Hey, I couldn't resist.)

1. Total package
The Rams are better than they were when they won the Super Bowl two years ago.

They still have the NFL's most explosive offense, having scored 500 regular-season points for an unprecedented third year in a row. The Rams, however, no longer are the one-dimensional scoring machine they were in 1999. Now, they're a complete team. They can win with defense, as they did in their playoff opener against the Packers, and they can win with a ball-control running attack, which they did in the NFC championship game against the Eagles.

In the 45-17 victory over the Packers, the Rams' defense forced eight turnovers and actually outscored the Packers offense by returning three interceptions for touchdowns. That showcased a defense that was rebuilt virtually from scratch this season. The biggest additions? Tony Dungy-disciple Lovie Smith as coordinator, eight new starters, speed at every position and a shut-down corner in Aeneas Williams.

In the 29-23 triumph over the Eagles, the Rams trailed at halftime for only the third time all season and Martz did a strategic about-face. He handed the ball to halfback Marshall Faulk on the first seven plays of the second half, ran the ball on 22 of the 28 plays in the third quarter as the Rams rolled to victory by playing keep-away from the Eagles. After three years in Martz's offense, the Rams have a thorough understanding of it and can adjust on the fly much better than they could in the past.

2. Talent
The NFL's reigning gurus on offense (Martz) and defense (Belichick) will cancel each other out with their schemes, which means the coach with the most weapons at his disposal (Martz, in a landslide) will win.

Belichick, the league's most creative defensive game-planner, has a week to decide how to attack an offense that features the greatest collection of playmakers in NFL history -- Faulk, the best running back in the game; Warner, the league's leading passer and most valuable player, and three game-breaking wide receivers. Traditional thinking is you have to get rushers in Warner's face and force him to throw the ball up for grabs. However, two known blitzers -- the Packers' Ed Donatell and the Eagles' Jim Johnson -- were scared blitzless by the Rams offense and made the decision to call off the dogs in the playoffs. Both managed to slow the Rams a bit, but neither stopped them.

Belichick followed the more traditional thinking when the Patriots lost to the Rams, 24-17, on Nov. 18. He ordered his defenders to zone-blitz Warner and rough up his receivers, which forced a couple of early turnovers. However, Belichick paid for it when the Rams adjusted to shorter routes and ran up 26 first downs and 486 yards in a come-from-behind victory. Warner was 30-for-42 for 401 yards and three touchdowns.

Belichick can scheme with the best of them and he has solid defensive personnel and a deep secondary, but the Rams have too many weapons for even Belichick to account for. To stop the Rams, you need speed all over your defense and the Patriots don't have it. You also need to pressure Warner with your front four and the Patriots were 19th in the NFL in sack percentage.

The really scary part for Patriots is that the Rams offense, which gained more than 400 yards 10 times during the regular season, really hasn't exploded in the playoffs. It's due.

3. Tenacious D
The Rams' defense has been the equal of the offense in the playoffs.

Last year, when the Rams allowed 471 points, the seventh-highest total in NFL history and the highest ever for a playoff team, opponents could beat St. Louis in shootouts. With an injection of speed and talent this year, the defense allowed 198 fewer points and finished third in the NFL in yards allowed.

It's been even better in the playoffs. In beating the Packers and Eagles, the defense has forced 10 turnovers and hasn't allowed a pass play of longer than 27 yards. When the Rams trailed the Eagles at halftime, the defense went out and held the Eagles without a first down on four of their five second-half possessions.

In the first meeting between St. Louis and New England, the Patriots scored one offensive touchdown. They've also scored one offensive touchdown in each of their two playoff games. With only one real threat -- wide receiver Troy Brown -- it's hard to imagine that the Patriots offense will be able to keep pace with the Rams' scoring machine, which is averaging 32.1 points a game this season.

Besides, after intercepting the Packers' Brett Favre six times and limiting the Eagles' Donovan McNabb to 26 yards on four scrambles, the Rams don't figure to wince at the sight of Tom Brady. Their biggest worry might be power back Antowain Smith, but he's been limited to 112 yards and a 3.2-yard average in two playoff games.

4. No mistakes
The only proven way to beat the Rams is by forcing turnovers, and lately they've been protecting the ball.

When St. Louis and New England met in November, the Rams were in the midst of a turnover siege, having coughed up 27 in a six-game stretch. The Rams stopped coughing shortly after that and they've been unbeatable ever since.

After turning the ball over 34 times in their first 10 games, the Rams have only had 11 giveaways in their last eight. In two playoff games against defenses that both ranked in the top 20 percent of the league in takeaways, they committed one turnover.

5. AstroTurf
The Rams, known as "The Greatest Show on Turf," are playing on a surface that accentuates their speed.

When the Patriots stayed within a touchdown of the Rams in November, the game was played outdoors, on grass, in front of a pro-New England crowd -- optimum conditions for the Patriots. The Super Bowl will be played indoors, on artificial turf, before a neutral crowd -- optimum conditions for the Rams.

This game will be played at St. Louis' speed, which is bad news for the Patriots. Grass teams traditionally have no idea how fast the Rams play until it's too late. And even though the Patriots have seen the Rams this season, they haven't seen them play on turf.

Over the last three seasons, the Rams are 31-7 indoors and 34-8 on turf. Not counting 2000, when their defense melted down, the Rams are 24-3 indoors and 26-4 on carpet since 1999. During those same three years, the Patriots were 2-3 indoors and 5-5 on turf.

It gets worse for the Patriots. Even when they've lost on turf, the Rams score points. In their eight losses on turf since 1999, all but one by seven points or less, their opponents averaged 31 points per game. The Patriots exceeded that total only four times all season.

6. History
A bonus reason: When the Patriots play a statistically superior NFC team in the Super Bowl, they always get blown out.

The game this year mirrors almost exactly the situation the Patriots faced in their first two Super Bowl appearances. Just like the 1985 and 1996 teams, the Patriots seemingly sprung from nowhere, drew a very strong NFC team, are a double-digit underdog and are playing the Super Bowl in New Orleans.

In a way, you have to pity the Patriots because their timing is poor. Instead of drawing, say, the 1998 Falcons or the 2000 Giants, they were paired with the 1985 Bears and the 1996 Packers, two of the NFL's more dominant teams in the past 20 years. The combined score of those two Super Bowls was 81-31, and the '01 Rams might be better than either the '85 Bears or '96 Packers.

Oh, and one more statistic foretelling a Rams blowout. This is the ninth Super Bowl held in New Orleans and none have been decided by fewer than 10 points.

Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal writes an NFC column every week for ESPN.com.


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