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Nothing-to-lose Pats should cut it loose
By Sean Salisbury
ESPN.com

NEW ORLEANS -- Speaking to a few St. Louis Rams players, they felt they would be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XXXVI, not the New England Patriots. They almost had to take a quick step back and slap themselves in the face after the Patriots upset the Steelers in the AFC championship game.

How did the Patriots get to the Super Bowl? For one, they had a little bit of luck, something every Super Bowl participant needs. Otherwise, the Patriots made fewer mistakes, kept teams out of the end zone and scored enough points to win. Looking at their roster on paper, they probably shouldn't have even made the playoffs. However, they began to win, resulting in chemistry and an unwavering belief in each other to make plays. Tom Brady got the ball rolling, leading the Patriots to a 12-3 record after an 0-2 start. Suddenly, after a 5-11 season in 2000, the Patriots starting believing they belonged.

Antowain Smith
Antowain Smith, who rushed for 1,157 yards in the regular season, will need to have a productive game Sunday.
The Patriots do not have an explosive offense, although Troy Brown will make big plays. Brady will not throw for 500 yards and Antowain Smith won't run for 200. Brady's stats and overall performance were good enough to earn him a trip to the Pro Bowl, but there were five quarterbacks with better numbers. Look at Drew Bledsoe's numbers in the AFC championship game: He was only 10-of-21 passing, but his 10 completions were big.

The Pats' defense ranked 24th in the league, but it was based on yards allowed -- the most overrated stat in football. In terms of points allowed, the Patriots were fifth, giving up 17 a game. Teams were moving the ball on the Patriots, but they weren't as successful scoring points, which is the whole point of defense.

The Patriots may not be spectacular, but they simply do the little things well. They block, tackle, play great special teams and execute Bill Belichick's game plan.

While the Patriots are a confident team, I believe they are treading lightly because they are playing the Rams. They have to be realistic, knowing the Rams didn't play their best football when the teams met in November. If anything, the previous game will at least help the Patriots to understand the Rams' speed. It's one thing to watch them on film. It's another to line up and see it in person.

Experience matters on Super Sunday. Veteran players such as Bledsoe and Bryan Cox will encourage the younger players. They will tell them not to be intimidated and that it's just a football game. But it's not just a football game.

The Patriots won't change much. Instead, they need to maintain their level of continuity and consistency, knowing where they are supposed to be on every play. Denny Green once said, "Know who to get, and how to get him." The Patriots have done that in previous games. They know who to get in the Super Bowl, but I don't know if they can get the Rams, with all their weapons.

Brady will start the game, as he should. But if the ankle is affecting the way he plays, they have to get him out as soon as they can. They can't wait around for his ankle to get better. The Patriots need to let it loose -- and not because they are 14-point underdogs. The Super Bowl is the biggest game in the world. The worst thing that could happen is a Super Bowl loss. Like when LSU played Tennessee in the SEC championship, LSU had nothing to lose. So they let it all hang out, Rohan Davey had a great game, and LSU won.

Why not cut loose? Most people are picking the Patriots to lose. Then, if the Rams let them hang around until the fourth quarter, the Rams will be sweating more than the Patriots.

Five keys for the Patriots
1. Commit to the run. Even though the Patriots' defense is solid, they can't give the Rams the ball. They must stick with the running game. If the Patriots run in the first quarter, get down by 10 early and then decide to throw the ball, they could end up down by 25 in a hurry. Antowain Smith is a north-south runner. Smith told me, "You won't get a lot of wiggle out of me. I will run straight ahead." The Patriots have to pound it with Smith and get great fullback play from Marc Edwards. Do I think they can physically pound the Rams? The Rams' physical strength is underrated, and I don't buy the perception that the Rams are soft. Even if they won't dominate on the ground, the Patriots must continue to run. In Week 10, they ran 20 times for 51 yards against the Rams. The Patriots need to add 10-12 more runs. If the Patriots have to throw 50 times, they could be down by 30 points because they would be in a catch-up mode the whole way.

2. Protect Brady. The Patriots need to protect Brady, who is not a very mobile quarterback, or the Rams will tee off with their defensive ends, Leonard Little and Grant Wistrom. Teams would much rather face a 4,000-yard quarterback who doesn't move than someone they must chase around such as Kordell Stewart. The Rams know where Brady is going to be when he drops back. I don't care if the Patriots have to use maximum protection. The Rams will not rush seven or eight players; they are not a blitzing team. They basically play zone. But Brady must have time to get into a rhythm and make plays.

3. Eliminate Faulk. Acting like a defensive coordinator, I sat down and tried to write down formations and defenses to match them. I lined up Marshall Faulk in the backfield, in the slot, out wide, trying to figure out how a defense could stop him. Teams talk about doing it, but they never seem to accomplish it. I don't know how it can be done, but Belichick is much smarter than I am when it comes to designing defenses. He will have a great plan for Faulk. Because the Patriots can't take away every one of the Rams' weapons, they need to eliminate the best player in the world. Then they must hope someone can rise up and take away Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt and the others. Taking away Faulk at least gives the Patriots a fighting chance. Belichick needs to do it, but I don't know how.

4. Score on defense or special teams. If the Patriots can score on defense or special teams, they will be in the game. If they strictly match their offense against the Rams' offense, they will lose. If the Patriots have an advantage over the Rams in one phase of the game, it's special teams. Look at the AFC championship game: Special teams accounted for 17 of New England's 24 points -- Troy Brown's punt return, Antwan Harris' return after a blocked punt (and a lateral from Brown), and Adam Vinatieri's 44-yard field goal. The Patriots' special teams are riding high. Psychologically, the Patriots will have the Rams thinking on every punt or kickoff. If New England comes through with a big play on defense or special teams, it needs to come when the game is still on the line, as they did last week, not when the game is out of reach.

5. No more than 24. I think 24 points is the cutoff mark for the Patriots. In other words, they must keep the Rams under 24. If the Rams score more than 24, they will win. If they are kept under 24, the Patriots can win. The Rams have been held under 24 points only three times this season, losing once to Tampa Bay. In Week 10, the Patriots held the Rams to 24 but lost 24-17. They must be even stingier the second time around.

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