Commentary

No calm before the free-agent storm

A scramble to sign potential free agents is likely; Redskins need Vincent Jackson

Originally Published: March 12, 2012
By John Clayton | ESPN.com

Reality has led to a whole lot of procrastination as free agency is set to begin.

On Sunday, the NFL announced the salary cap was going to be $120.6 million, only $225,000 more than last year. The flat cap is understandable. Revenues were down because of the 136-day lockout. Plus, the NFLPA had to do some scrambling just to get an increase in the cap.

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What's been interesting is watching the procrastination. Until Monday, only about 32 re-signings have occurred leaguewide, which is roughly one per team. Most teams waited until the eve of free agency to cut deals to prevent players from hitting the market.

Teams did use 21 franchise tags to block the exits of players, but six were used on kickers and a punter, the lowest-priced players. This will lead to a wild scramble until 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to see whether teams can sign their top remaining free agents.

With free agency so close, more agents might encourage their players to hit the market to test their values, causing plenty of coaches to worry the next few days.

Will a flat cap lead to a flat market? We'll see.

The lower franchise tag numbers because of five-year averaging of the franchise numbers already have prevented some deals from going wild. Drew Brees was asking for $23 million a year. The New Orleans Saints were offering $18.5 million. Brees got franchised at $14.436 million until he gets a new deal.

Regardless of the numbers, the action will be frenzied this week. As of Sunday, there were 436 unsigned free agents.

From the inbox

Q: I think the [Indianapolis] Colts made the right decision letting Peyton Manning go and using their No. 1 draft choice to select Andrew Luck. However, if Andrew Luck had entered the NFL draft last year, do you think the Colts would have made the same decision and let Peyton Manning go and selected Robert Griffin III with their No. 1 overall choice? Or do you think they would have re-signed Peyton Manning?

James in Atlanta

A: Great question. I'm not sure. Their plan was to keep Manning for five years. That was the length of the contract he signed. His neck injury changed things. My read would be that they would have drafted Griffin. After 14 years with Manning, the Colts wanted to rebuild. They have a new general manager, a new coach, a new philosophy. They probably would have wanted a new quarterback if they had questions about Manning's throwing because of his neck surgeries.

Short takes

Michael in Columbus, Ohio, wonders why the Steelers had such cap problems At one point, they were $25 million over. The answer is simple. They had a lot of aging veteran stars, particularly on defense. You notice that, after releasing six players and restructuring contracts, they got under. They do a good job in Pittsburgh. … To Brad in Morganton, N.C., I think Stanford guard David DeCastro is good enough to change teams' priorities. He's one of the best-looking guard prospects in years. The team that grabs him could be getting a future Pro Bowler. That's why he will go in the top 15, which is rare for a guard. … Michael from Springfield, Mo., a lifelong 49ers fan, wants a big upgrade for his team at wide receiver. So do the 49ers. Randy Moss, who visits Monday, might not be the answer, but he could be one key addition. … Billy in Eastchester, N.Y., notes the increasing popularity of the draft and wants to see more access to the draft rooms. Good thought. There isn't enough time to go in-depth on the networks, but it would be great for each team to stream content on its respective website. The teams would control the content, but fans would love a look inside. Suggest it to the team nearest you or the team you follow. … Eric from Pennsylvania asks whether the Eagles will try to sign another big wide receiver. I think they could swap the spot of Steve Smith with Plaxico Burress. Remember, their top three receivers -- DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant -- make up one of the top three-receiver groups in football. … Phillip in Orlando, Fla., says the Jaguars need help at wide receiver, need help in the secondary and need a pass-rusher. I think they need to load up on wide receivers. Last year's group, except for Mike Thomas, was brutal. … Worried about the Bengals' history of being frugal, Eric in Chicago wonders whether the Bengals, loaded with cap room, will be big players in free agency. I think they need to go for Michael Bush because I don't think Cedric Benson will be back. Their signings will be more like last year's: Manny Lawson, Nate Clements and Thomas Howard. Those were smart moves at decent money. … Mac in Cleveland wonders whether the Browns will go after LaRon Landry, the safety from the Redskins. They might, but I think he'll end up in Philadelphia or with the New York Jets. … Ryan in Chicago asks whether there is any chance the Bears will go after Marques Colston instead of Vincent Jackson. They might have to do that. The Redskins will be players for Jackson. I do think Colston will end up back with the Bears. … Jason in Washington saw 21 players receive the franchise tag, so he wonders whether the NFLPA will try to get rid of the franchise tag system. It's a 10-year labor agreement. There is no out, so the tag system stays.

Q: Do you think there is a chance that the [Chicago] Bears go after Mario Williams to start opposite Julius Peppers? I think the addition of Williams could help the defense by not having the linebackers and cornerbacks blitz the quarterback so much on passing downs, considering there are enough open holes on the field when the Bears are in the Tampa 2 defense.

John in Naperville, Ill.

A: In the salary-cap era, I can't see a team paying two defensive ends $14 million a year. Although it looks great on paper, it doesn't work well for the capologists, particularly in the early part of a new CBA that has flat caps. Sure, you can structure a deal that can work for a year or two, but the big numbers at one position eventually catch up to a team. A Cover 2 team can do great when it has two pass-rushers, but it would be hard to feature the two highest-paid ends in the league and still take care of other positions.

Q: Why are the [Houston] Texans letting Mario Williams leave? Not only was he their first-round pick a few years ago, but he is a dominant player at one of the largest areas of need for any Super Bowl hopeful -- DE. I know they had other players to consider, but I don't understand this.

James in Huntington, W.Va.

A: You have to get the feeling the Texans felt as if they could win without him when they hired Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator. Williams is a great 4-3 pass-rusher. They knew he was going to cost $15 million a year to re-sign. He had five sacks in his first five games before getting hurt. They figured he could get 16 to 18 sacks. But they also had two very good pass-rushers, Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin, who combined for 17½ sacks. It's hard to pay that much money for a linebacker in a 3-4 defense. Great ends make more than linebackers, and there is a salary cap. Something had to give.

Q: How does an incentive-laden contract affect a team's salary cap? If Peyton signs a contract for say $5 million a year but the incentives could make it possible for him to make $15 million, does his new team have to leave that additional 10 million free in cap room in case he meets his incentives?

Brad in Beverly, Mass.

A: If a team writes the contract to pay him the $10 million of incentives that year, it has to leave the room. You can never go over the cap. It could do the same things in other ways by having the $10 million or a portion of it go into the next year. It can tie the extra money into an option bonus that is paid the next year and have the proration of the bonus spread over the remainder of the contract. There are a lot of ways to do that, but if it's having him get the $10 million as the season goes along, the team would have to leave the room.

Q: There are a few key points I think people are missing about where Peyton Manning will ultimately decide to play in 2012. I think he will chose the weaker conference, the AFC, much like Joe Montana did back in 1993. He's been linked to the [Arizona] Cardinals in the NFC, but their offensive line would time warp him to the 2010 Colts. In the AFC he's been linked to the [Miami] Dolphins, [Kansas City] Chiefs and [New York] Jets. In college he went to Tennessee to escape the spotlight of Archie at Mississippi. It is for this reason I believe he will chose KC and the smaller media market a la Jeff Fisher. They also have the most stable franchise of the aforementioned teams.

Tim in Knoxville, Tenn.

A: You're on the right track. It's not as though he fears the competition, but he's trying to find the right spot to help him get back to the Super Bowl. If he goes to Miami, he could finish second to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots and have to make it as a wild-card team. If he had gone to Washington, he might have finished second to his brother or the Dallas Cowboys. That's why Arizona, the Denver Broncos and Kansas City have good chances.

Q: What do you think the chances are of the Washington Redskins getting Vincent Jackson, and if so, do you think he would be a good fit?

Leonard via a mobile phone

A: Now that we know they are targeting him, you probably have to put the Redskins in the lead. Before, I had the Bears, but Redskins owner Dan Snyder doesn't lose bidding wars. He outbid the Browns to get RG3. Now he needs to get receiver help to make that work. Jackson would fit in Mike Shanahan's offense the way Brandon Marshall did when coach and player were together in Denver.

Q: The AFC West was pretty mediocre last year (so was the NFC East?), but the NFC North had some good competition. Which divisions do you see rising and falling in competitiveness next year?

Peter in Brunswick, Maine

A: Believe it or not, the NFC West is getting interesting. It's probably a year from being really good, but it's a division that has Jeff Fisher, Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll. It could have Peyton Manning in the division. The defenses are getting better. The NFC South might be the best division now that the Carolina Panthers are becoming good again. It's the one division that has four great quarterbacks.

Q: With Tyron Smith moving to left tackle this year, if they can get Carl Nicks, do you agree that the Dallas Cowboys offense will easily be one of the most feared offenses in 2012?

Mike in Pittsburgh

A: I like your thinking. Smith will go great at left tackle. Doug Free would be great at right tackle. I like some of the young players in the middle of the line. But to add one of the best guards in football not only would help the running game but would make things easier for Tony Romo at quarterback. Cowboys, go for it.

John Clayton

NFL senior writer
  • Senior NFL writer and commentator
  • Joined ESPN in 1995
  • Member of the writers' wing of the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio

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