Looking back at the NBA's lottery-team draft picks
since 1985 is an eye-opening exercise. Some picks
were brilliant, sure, but most revealed themselves to
be of the "What the hell were they smoking?"
variety.
|
NBA Draft Wacky Bracket |
|
Round One Matchups
No. 1 vs. Bye
No. 8 vs. No. 9
No. 5 vs. No. 12
No. 4 vs. No. 13
No. 3 vs. Non-Lott. 1st-Rounders
No. 6 vs. No. 11
No. 7 vs. No. 10
No. 2 vs. 2nd-Rounders
|
Page 2 matched up each of the lottery-pick draft slots
since '85 in a winner-take-all bracket, at each spot
using the "Best 3," "Worst 3" and "Mixed Bag"
leftovers to determine which draft position has
yielded the best crop of players. Taking into serious
consideration the disadvantages of drafting as the
position gets worse, our most revealing discovery is how
mediocre most of these picks turned out to be. Judge
for yourself:
No. 1 vs. Bye
No. 1
Best 3: Shaquille O'Neal ('92), Tim Duncan ('98), Allen Iverson ('96)
Worst 3: Kwame Brown ('01), Pervis Ellison ('90), Joe Smith ('95)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Yao Ming ('02); Kenyon Martin ('00); Elton Brand ('99); Mike Olowokandi
('98); Glenn Robinson ('94); Chris Webber ('93); Larry Johnson ('91); Derrick Coleman ('90); Danny Manning
('88); David Robinson ('87); Brad Daugherty ('86); Patrick Ewing ('85)
Analysis: When Ewing, C-Webb and the Admiral can't even crack the Top 3, that's depth. But shouldn't No. 1 flops be given greater weight?
The Pick: No. 1 Group automatically advances to the quarterfinals, but no gimme from there.
No. 8 vs. No. 9
No. 8
Best 3: Detlef Schrempf ('85); Ron Harper ('86); Brian Grant ('94)
Worst 3: Randy White ('89); Bo Kimble ('90); Mark Macon ('91)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Chris Wilcox ('02); DeSagana Diop ('01); Jamal Crawford ('00); Andre
Miller ('99); Larry Hughes ('98); Adonal Foyle ('97); Kerry Kittles ('96); Shawn Respert ('95); Vin Baker
('93); Todd Day ('92); Rex Chapman ('88); Olden Polynice ('87)
Analysis: Remember when people said Randy White was the next Karl Malone? Each of the teams that made
these across-the-board mediocre-to-terrible picks could go back and find at least three players they passed up who would have been more effective.
No. 9
Best 3: Tracy McGrady ('97); Dirk Nowitzki ('98); Amare Stoudemire ('02)
Worst 3: Brad Sellers ('86); Rodney White ('01); Tom Hammonds ('89)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Joel Przybilla ('00); Shawn Marion ('99); Samaki Walker ('96); Ed O'Bannon
('95); Eric Montross ('94); Rodney Rogers ('93); Clarence Weatherspoon ('92); Stacey Augmon ('91);
Willie Burton ('90); Rony Seikaly ('88); Derrick McKey ('87); Charles Oakley ('85)
Analysis: Here's the test: If every player in the last six drafts was put back into one big draft,
this group's "Best 3" would likely be in the Top 5 (along with Duncan and Yao). That helps make up for a
group of overall sketchy value (but at No. 9, what do you want?)
The Pick: No. 9
No. 5 vs. No. 12
No. 5
Best 3: Kevin Garnett ('95); Scottie Pippen ('87); Mitch Richmond ('88)
Worst 3: Isaiah Rider ('93); JR Reid ('89); Jon
Koncak ('85)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Nik Tskitishvili ('02); Jason Richardson ('01); Mike Miller ('00); Jonathan
Bender ('99); Vince Carter ('98); Tony Battie ('97); Ray Allen ('96); Juwan Howard ('94); LaPhonso Ellis
('92); Steve Smith ('91); Kendall Gill ('90); Kenny Walker ('86)
Analysis: In other slots, Carter and Allen could crack the "Best 3," and aside from the "Worst 3"
this is a solid group. In a re-draft including every pick of the last 10 years, Garnett would go 1 or 2.
(For the record: Golden State, the Clippers, the 76ers and the then-Bullets passed on him. Can you believe
that as recently as 1995, drafting high school kids was unhip?)
No. 12
Best 3: Mookie Blaylock ('89); Harvey Grant
('88); Greg Anthony ('91)
Worst 3: Alec Kessler ('90); Alex Radejovic
('99); Kenny Green ('85)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Melvin Ely ('02); Vlad
Radmanovic ('01); Etan Thomas ('00); Mike Doleac
('98); Austin Croshere ('97); Vitaly Potapenko ('96);
Cherokee Parks ('95); Khalid Reeves ('94); George
Lynch ('93); Harold Miner ('92); Tyrone Bogues ('87);
John Williams ('86)
Analysis: For this batch of Pearl Jam
inspirations (Blaylock), marketing ploys (Bogues, to
team with Manute Bol) and other role players, most
teams would have been better off with the player
taken immediately after: Redojevic (Corey
Maggette); Doleac (Keon Clark); Potapenko (Kobe (Urp!)
Bryant); Parks (Corliss Williamson); Reeves (Jalen
Rose). It's like "hit or miss" for the GMs at No. 12
-- without the hits.
The Pick: No. 5, in a rout
No. 4 vs. No. 13
No. 4
Best 3: Rasheed Wallace ('95); Dikembe Mutombo
('91); Stephon Marbury ('96)
Worst 3: Reggie Williams ('87); Chris Morris
('88); Antonio Daniels ('97)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Drew Gooden ('02); Eddy
Curry ('01); Marcus Fizer ('00); Lamar Odom ('99);
Antawn Jamison ('98); Donyell Marshall ('94); Jamal
Mashburn ('93); Jimmy Jackson ('92); Dennis Scott
('90); Glen Rice ('89); Chuck Person ('86); Xavier
McDaniel ('85)
Analysis: Can you believe a team once felt so
good about Dennis Scott that they made him the fourth
overall pick? All that hype went right to his waist.
Meanwhile, Reggie Williams is one of many -- (so
many) -- indescribably bad picks by the Clippers
from '85 through...what year is it?
No. 13
Best 3: Kobe Bryant ('96); Karl Malone ('85);
Richard Jefferson ('01)
Worst 3: Michael Smith ('89); Dwayne Washington
('86); Terry Dehere ('93)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Marcus Haislip ('02);
Courtney Alexander ('00); Corey Maggette ('99); Keon
Clark ('98); Derek Anderson ('97); Corliss Williamson
('95); Jalen Rose ('94); Bryant Stith ('92); Dale
Davis ('91); Jeff Grayer ('88); Joe Wolf ('87)
Analysis: I would pay a lot of money to sit in
a bar with Bill Simmons to hear him talk about how he
felt when the Celtics took Michael Smith in '89. Tim
Hardaway (14), Shawn Kemp (17), Vlade Divac (26) or
even just saying "We pass" would have been preferable.
The Pick: No. 13 Don't call it an upset. At the
top, No. 13 is a gold mine; on the flip side, blowing
it at that spot doesn't stink nearly as bad as
whiffing with the No. 4 pick.
No. 3 vs. Rest of 1st Round
No. 3
Best 3: Grant Hill ('94); Baron Davis ('99);
Pau Gasol ('01)
Worst 3: Chris Washburn ('86); Benoit Benjamin
('85); Dennis Hopson ('87)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Mike Dunleavy ('02);
Darius Miles ('00); Raef LaFrentz ('98); Chauncey
Billups ('97); Shareef Abdur-Rahim ('96); Jerry
Stackhouse ('95); Penny Hardaway ('93); Christian
Laettner ('92); Billy Owens ('91); Chris Jackson
('90); Sean Elliott ('89); Charles Smith ('88)
Analysis: Shapes up as the "Reputation Pick"
(and, somehow, the "Duke Pick,") which explains a lot:
With an exception or two, all of these guys
should have ended up better than they are/were.
They are not quite the talents that the No. 1 and No.
2 picks usually are, yet are often stuck on teams that
are just as crappy as ones picking before them. Maybe
we should just call it the "Kiss of Death" pick.
Rest of First Round
Best 3: Latrell Sprewell (No. 24, '92); Joe
Dumars (No. 18, '85); Steve Nash (No. 15, '96)
Second-Best 3: Shawn Kemp (No. 17, '89); Peja
Stojakovic (No. 14, '96); Mike Finley (No. 21, '95)
Analysis: It's a little unfair to give this
group every other first-round pick after the
lottery (with no "Worst 3") but then again, their
opponent in this fantasy bracket could have had ANY of
these guys at least 11 picks later. But don't
misunderstand this for some type of advantage; what's
interesting is how few players from 14 through the end
of the first round turn out to be major contributors.
The Pick: No. 3, with little enthusiasm
No. 6 vs. No. 11
No. 6
Best 3: Antoine Walker ('96); Tom Gugliotta
('92); Hersey Hawkins ('88)
Worst 3: William Bedford ('86); Doug Smith
('91); Sharone Wright ('94)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:DaJuan Wagner ('02); Shane
Battier ('01); DerMarr Johnson ('00); Wally Szczerbiak
('99); Robert Traylor ('98); Ron Mercer ('97); Bryant
Reeves ('95); Calbert Cheaney ('93); Felton Spencer
('90); Stacey King ('89); Kenny Smith ('87); Joe
Kleine ('85)
Analysis: How many names within this
uninspiring group resulted in draft-night sports-radio
call-in proclamations like "Calbert Cheaney is an
All-Star for years to come," which one of your family
members surreptitiously recorded and annually leaves
on your answering machine?
No. 11
Best 3: Reggie Miller ('87); Allan Houston
('93); Robert Horry ('92)
Worst 3: Trajan Langdon (99); Carlos Rogers
('94); Todd Fuller ('96)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Jared Jeffries ('02);
Kedrick Brown ('01); Jerome Moiso ('00); Bonzi Wells
('98); Olivier Saint-Jean ('97); Gary Trent ('95);
Terrell Brandon ('91); Tyrone Hill ('90); Nick
Anderson ('89); Will Perdue ('88); John Salley ('86);
Keith Lee ('85)
Analysis: On the one hand, Reggie, Allan and
Big Shot Rob represent three of the NBA's most clutch
shooters of the last decade. On the other, Trajan
Langdon represents one of the CBA's most clutch
jump-shooters of the last decade.
The Pick: No. 11. Those No. 6 picks read like
the Tweener All-Stars.
No. 7 vs. No. 10
No. 7
Best 3: Chris Mullin ('85); Kevin Johnson
('87); Rip Hamilton ('99)
Worst 3: Roy Tarpley ('86); Bobby Hurley ('93);
Chris Mihm ('00)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Nene Hilario ('02); Eddie
Griffin ('01); Jason Williams ('98); Tim Thomas ('97);
Lorenzen Wright ('96); Damon Stoudamire ('95); Lamond
Murray ('94); Walt Williams ('92); Luc Longley ('91);
Lionel Simmons ('90); George McCloud ('89); Tim Perry
('88)
Analysis: This slot should lose if only because
of Roy Tarpley's presence. But at least Tarpley had
the drugs; what's Chris Mihm's excuse? In five years,
Hilario, Griffin and Thomas may boost the stock of the
7s; alas, it's too late for Lionel Simmons to
contribute.
No. 10
Best 3: Paul Pierce ('98); Horace Grant ('87);
Caron Butler ('02)
Worst 3: Adam Keefe ('92); Johnny Dawkins
('86); Rumeal Robinson ('90)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Joe Johnson ('01); Keyon
Dooling ('00); Jason Terry ('99); Danny Fortson ('97);
Erick Dampier ('96); Kurt Thomas ('95); Eddie Jones
('94); Lindsey Hunter ('93); Brian Williams ('91);
Pooh Richardson ('89); Willie Anderson ('88); Ed
Pinckney ('85)
Analysis: Recently, the No. 10 has become the
"value pick" (a.k.a.
Player-Uses-Perceived-Disrespect-As-Motivation pick),
with guys like Pierce and Butler (but the trend goes
back to Eddie Jones, Brian Williams and Ho Grant). But
as you can see, one GM's "value" is another's Adam
Keefe.
The Pick: No. 10
No. 2 vs. Second-Rounders
No. 2
Best 3: Gary Payton ('90); Jason Kidd ('94);
Steve Francis ('99)
Worst 3: Danny Ferry ('89); Stromile Swift
('00); Shawn Bradley ('93)
Mixed-Bag Remainders:Jay Williams ('02); Tyson
Chandler ('01); Mike Bibby ('98); Keith Van Horn
('97); Marcus Camby ('96); Antonio McDyess ('95);
Alonzo Mourning ('92); Kenny Anderson ('91); Rik Smits
('88); Arman Gilliam ('87); Len Bias ('86); Wayman
Tisdale ('85)
Analysis: If No. 1 picks traditionally are
about getting a great big man, the best No. 2s have
been about snagging the best guard (or, at least, the
reputed best guard...hello, Jay Williams!)
Settling for "second-best" big players (like our Worst
3) has not been a good strategy.
Second-Rounders
Best 3: Mark Price ('86); Dennis Rodman ('86);
Toni Kukoc ('90)
Second-Best 3: Nick Van Exel ('93); Rashard
Lewis ('99); Gilbert Arenas ('02)
Analysis: To offer Second-Rounders a handicap,
we're again looking at only the good picks.
Considering these guys were totally overlooked on
draft night, doesn't say much for scouting. (As if
this entire rundown hasn't been one big expose of
scouts' inadequacies.)
The Pick: No. 2s. Second-Rounders are scrappy
overachievers, but the No. 2s are overwhelming. Even
No. 2 duds contribute. Second-rounders who make a
difference are few and far between.
Click here to go on to the QUARTERFINALS!
|