Tuesday, October 26
By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com
Good luck to Jim Beattie or Pat Gillick if one of them takes over as the Mariners' new general manager, courtesy of Scott Boras, who, incidentally, is not exactly Gillick's lifetime buddy. Boras has told the Mariners that no matter where Alex Rodriguez is traded this winter, he will not sign until he's tested the free-agent market next fall.
"Alex wants to play it out in Seattle and honor his contract," says Boras. "Most players get to this point with a year to go and want to get an extension. Alex wants to honor his contract and see what happens."
|  | | Alex Rodriguez has indicated he won't sign if traded and will test the free agent market after the 2000 season.
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That sounds noble and all, but Boras knows that A-Rod may well be the greatest free agent -- ever. The problem for the Mariners is that not only is Rodriguez a free agent at the end of next season, but so is Ken Griffey Jr., arguably the best all-around player in the game. Also, while Junior Griffey is older than A-Rod, he will also be making a run at Henry Aaron's 755 at the back end of his coming deal.
Can Seattle sign Griffey and let A-Rod play it out? Can they gamble and trade Griffey and see if the owners will parlay their Nintendo and Microsoft stock options into keeping Rodriguez next fall? The problem now is that Boras' stand has diminished A-Rod's trade value. If the Rockies thought they could sign him, they would have discussed a logical deal for Larry Walker, who might have waived his no-trade to play near his British Columbia home; but under these conditions, they will not. Would Cleveland or Atlanta take the shot and presume they could sign him at the end of next season? Probably not, now. The Mets might, but at what cost?
"At this point, to trade for Alex would cost that team three quality major league players," Boras says. "And any team willing to give what it would take for him would be so depleted it would likely not be the consistent contender Alex wants to play for. His situation is not dissimilar to Bernie Williams last year. He played it out, maintained a positive relationship, the club remained competitive and, in the end, had two viable options (along with Boston) and worked things out."
The Yankees had offered Williams $60 million. The Red Sox went up to $91 million, and Williams eventually settled on $87 million from the Yankees. Weeks later, Boras saw Kevin Brown get a high offer of $68 million, then had the Dodgers swoop in at $105 million.
One can look at the list of this winter's most notable free agents and realize that not only is it a B list, but that two or three teams will overbid on players just to tell their fans that they "want to win," and that will simply drive up the price of the greatest free agent class ever, that class of 200. Besides Rodriguez and Griffey, consider some of the players eligible for free agency after next season:
Positional Players Pitchers
Mark McGwire Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez Andy Ashby
Chipper Jones Mike Hampton
Shawn Green Robb Nen
Craig Biggio Andy Pettitte
Carlos Delgado Armando Benitez
Juan Gonzalez Roger Clemens
Barry Larkin Ismael Valdes
Jim Edmonds Darren Dreifort
Carl Everett Charles Johnson
Then throw in some of these big-time arbitration cases for the end of the 2000 season: Jose Lima (fifth year), Andruw Jones, Kevin Millwood, Travis Lee, Matt Mantei, Sidney Ponson, Derek Lowe, Kerry Wood, Sean Casey, Pokey Reese, Magglio Ordonez, Jose Rosado, Mike Sweeney, Chan Ho Park (fifth year), Brad Radke (fifth year), Dustin Hermanson, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, Mariano Rivera, Ben Grieve, Bobby Abreu, Jason Schmidt, Shawn Estes, Edgar Renteria, Fernando Tatis ...
Juan Gonzalez and Manny Ramirez have already stated that they want Kevin Brown money; the Rangers' ownership keeps circling on Gonzalez, so this is something to watch. If Aaron Sele's agent, Adam Katz, is right and Sele is going to hit a $9 million payoff this winter, then what are Mussina and Hampton worth?
Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will now cost so much in the arbitration market that in a winter when Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Ramiro Mendoza can also go to arbitration, there is speculation around baseball that, as the Yankees re-tool for the next century, Bernie Williams might well be marketed, with shortstop phenom Alfonso Soriano moved to center field in winter ball. That may be hard to believe, considering the uncertain 2000 status of Paul O'Neill, the hole in left field and the declining stats of Tino Martinez, but it's out there, no matter how illogical.
Toronto has made it clear that it would like to sign Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado or, preferably, both. Problem is, they seem to be running into a wall on Delgado, and they don't know what effect bringing Cito Gaston back as hitting coach will have on Green, whom Gaston did not care for when he managed.
Would Toronto try to pull a blockbuster and try to get Walker and Todd Helton from the Rockies for Green and Delgado? Very possible. Rangers GM Doug Melvin will see what the market bears for Gonzalez while waiting for owner Tom Hicks' decision, with the Mets one of the first teams in line. The Astros must decide whether or not to start re-aligning what has been a strong, contending team for five years, and, given that Jeff Bagwell and Moises Alou are free agents at the end of the 2001 season, begin that re-alignment by exploring Biggio's trade value.
San Diego has already let it be known that it will trade Andy Ashby, who is a solid, front-line starter. The Tigers are interested in Ashby, in something involving San Diego native Tony Clark and perhaps Justin Thompson in an expanded deal. Ashby, who has a no-trade clause to Detroit, will apparently waive it. The Indians have called, and the Yankees have let it be known that they want the Padres to wait; Ashby has a no-trade to New York as well, but the Yankees know players want to play for them because they are perennial contenders, and the atmosphere around the team is special.
While the tireless John Hart tries to retool the Indians -- the impending sale to the Ohio branch of the Dolan family will not immediately impact Hart's work -- he has to decide on Ramirez's worth. As he looks to find pitching and likely allows Mike Jackson to walk via free agency, Hart is letting it be known that he'd like to move David Justice (3 years, $21 million remaining) and Kenny Lofton and that he'd be willing to discuss Travis Fryman and possibly Jaret Wright.
"If every one of those 2000 free agents were allowed to go on the market at the same time, it might finally begin to depress the market," says one general manager. "How many teams can afford to be having two to four $10 to $20 -- in A-Rod's case -- million-dollar players? Teams like Houston, San Francisco, Arizona, Texas and Boston are already stretched to the max, and in most cases, lost money. Where are the new revenue streams coming from? But, of course, they won't all be allowed to hit the market simultaneously, and instead of real market forces, we will keep jacking up the prices artificially."
Rodriguez and Griffey will never have any artificial price, because they are legitimate superstars. So is Jeter. So are Pedro and Nomar. But a lot of very good, big-name players are going to be paid as legitimate superstars, with the good and not-so-good players pushed along by the arbitration market right up to the next labor deadline in 2002.
Trade rumors
The Dodgers will be active. One early rumor: Eric Karros and Ismael Valdes, both 2000 free agents, to Colorado for Helton. With Dan O'Dowd, Buddy Bell and Marcel Lachemann in place in Colorado, teams are buzzing to make deals. Another possibility: Dante Bichette to the Tigers for Bobby Higginson. The Reds had interest in Bichette, but backed off with an apparent eye on Justice instead.
The Reds have another contract problem: Denny Neagle may demand a trade, per his right after being traded in the middle of a multi-year contract.
The Phillies are trying to get into the trade market for a big-time pitcher to line up behind Curt Schilling. Whether or not what they're offering -- LHP Randy Wolf and OF Reggie Taylor -- is enough is speculative. Ditto the Cardinals, who want to get a veteran pitcher with an offering of Juan Acevedo, Manny Aybar and/or Jose Jimenez.
The Giants are offering LHP Kirk Rueter for power, preferably at third base. There have been recurring rumblings that highly respected GM Brian Sabean is a mystery candidate in Seattle and would be willing to leave the Giants for the right position because of some internal conflicts. Speculation is ripe in the Bay Area that both Sabean and Dusty Baker will be willing to walk at the end of next season. There are internal problems, and there are cash-flow problems, as the debt service on the new ballpark will severely limit payroll.
Braves, Yankees get pilfered
In the '90s, the two most successful franchises have been the Braves and Yankees, because of their management and market size. We now see other clubs bearing down on these two organizations for what they perceive as winning leadership.
It started with the Brewers, who went for John Schuerholz's assistant GM, Dean Taylor, to take over the Milwaukee front office; if, as reported, the choice was former Indian assistant Dan O'Dowd, that follows, because the Indians are the third-winningest team of the decade and they have lost eight significant members -- not counting manager and coaches -- out of that organization in the past year.
Now we are seeing a bidding war for the managerial services of Braves coach Don Baylor, apparently won by the Cubs. Grady Little, a Braves organization graduate and currently bench coach for Jimy Williams, Bobby Cox's long-time ally, is interviewing in both Milwaukee and Baltimore. Yankees coach Willie Randolph is considered a front-runner for the Brewers' job, and Yanks batting coach Chris Chambliss is in the mix for a number of jobs, including the Angels if Bob Watson gets the general manager's job now that Expos VP Bill Stoneman has turned it down.
"I think the appeal is that Willie, Chris and guys like that have been around winners as players and coaches," Joe Torre says. "And they are good people."
Randolph will be the first to add that it helps him to have observed Torre's honest, direct, respectful leadership. As for Baylor, the Braves connection has given him publicity, but he was a respected winner as a player, and as everyone saw this year, was hardly the problem when he managed Colorado. In fact, he may have pushed the Rockies above and beyond their real ability levels.
The Cubs clearly want Baylor, so much so that they prepared his page on their web site. The Brewers remain undecided, as are the Orioles, although Ken Griffey Sr. interviewed well there. In Baltimore, it appears that third-base coach Sam Perlozzo is the leader until Griffey, Jim Riggleman or someone else edges past him. Anaheim depends on the general manager; it seems incredible that the Angels decided on Stoneman, then couldn't work out a deal.
Indians GM John Hart is interviewing a number of candidates for his vacant opening, including Chambliss and Baylor. Pitching coach Bud Black has thrown George Brett's name into it, and George wants to manage. But, in the end, Hart is expected to stick with his hitting coach, Charlie Manuel.
The Seattle GM job is apparently between Gillick and Expos GM Beattie, and if Beattie were to leave, the Expos' GM position would come down to either current international scouting director Fred Ferreira or former Montreal scouting director Gary Hughes.
Then there is Cincinnati, where Jack McKeon guided the surprising Reds to their best regular-season record since the days of the Big Red Machine. He has gotten the runaround on a new contract, and when he met with team president John Allyn Friday was told that he has a one-year, take-it-or-leave it offer for less than $600,000. That could force McKeon to walk., and open the door for Bob Boone to take over as manager. To some, that is a slap in the face to a man whose life has been baseball, and who held together a team that was reloading and rebuilding.
Final thoughts
Sammy Sosa is having a birthday bash to beat all birthday bashes on Nov. 12. Among the invited guests are Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Jesse Jackson and the presidents of the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. Imagine the party favors. ... Did you realize that after the Braves, Yankees and Indians, the winningest team of the '90s was the White Sox? And that the three losingest teams were the Tigers, Twins and Royals, and the Twins won a World Series in '91. ... It's the pitching, stupid. The Royals scored the most runs in the history of their franchise, 856, and they had the worst record in the history of the franchise, 64-97. But GM Herk Robinson won't talk about trading Johnny Damon for pitching. |  |
