Category archive: Jeff Gordon
New 2013 Toyota Gets Kyle Busch Approval
I'll be the first to admit that numbers can be misleading.
Of course, except mine. My statistics have only good intentions, looking to guide you and me together on a path of enlightenment.
But other numbers can be misleading, especially when it comes to drivers at Charlotte. So let's break down three drivers, one who is worse than you thought, one who's better and a third who's a bit of both.
Jimmie Johnson: Charlotte is sometimes referred to as "Johnsonville." There was a period of time when the dude owned the place, at one point winning four in a row. But that time has passed.
Johnson's driver rating has slipped at Charlotte over each of the past six seasons (see accompanying chart), except a rebound in 2009.
Johnson looked like he was making a comeback at Charlotte in 2009, when he ran a race-high 71 fastest laps in a win. After that, though, the drop continued.
Over the past four Charlotte races, Johnson has run 88 fastest laps, a still-respectable number at sixth-best in the series but certainly not worthy of track ownership.
Kyle Busch: Busch's career at Charlotte was rocky at the start of his Cup career. In his first seven races there, he finished 25th or worse six times. But in his past nine starts, he's finished eighth or better in all but one.
Despite not having won there, his numbers are among the best. In the past 10 races at Charlotte, Busch has put up two of the three highest single-race driver ratings, but finished second and sixth in those races.
Tony Stewart: Early in Stewart's career, he was a regular front-runner at Charlotte, with six top-5s and nine top-10s in his first dozen races there. In his past 14? Not a single top-5.
But there's hope, Smoke fans. Last fall at Charlotte, Stewart put up a 121.2 driver rating, his best in his past 14 races there.
Looking for trouble
Every week, my fellow members in ESPN Stats & Information crunch the numbers and tell us what to watch for this weekend.
Since 1990, more drivers have recovered from accidents and gone on to post top-10 finishes at Charlotte than any other intermediate track.
Carl Edwards (three times), Jeff Gordon (twice) and Martin Truex Jr. (twice) are among those with multiple "saves" at the track. Edwards has more such recoveries at Charlotte than all other tracks combined (two).
The Eliminator: Charlotte
For those of you new to my little blog, every week I use a device called The Eliminator to make a pick.
It's pretty simple: Instead of telling you somebody will win, I'll point out why everybody else has to lose. The driver remaining, by process of elimination, is the race winner.
And if you want to see who was eliminated in each step, I'll post the info Friday on my Twitter account (@MattWillisESPN).
1. The past 14 Sprint Cup Series winners finished 16th or better in the last race at the track. (31 drivers eliminated, 16 remaining).
2. Nine of the past 10 Charlotte winners were 11th or better in the last Kansas race (eight eliminated, eight remaining).
3. Eight of the past nine Charlotte winners had a previous top-two finish at the track (three eliminated, five remaining).
4. There have been 10 different winners in the past 10 Charlotte races (three eliminated, two remaining).
5. The past three Charlotte winners finished 17th or better in each of the past three races (one eliminated, one remaining).
Your winner: Kyle Busch
Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Martinsville Speedway had a little something for everyone. It had long green-flag runs, slam-and-bang racing, heated tempers, controversial cautions and even a beacon of light for the conspiracy theorists out there in David Reutimann's late-race caution.
But regardless of what you enjoyed best, the checkered flag and grandfather clock now belong to Ryan Newman, who picked up the unlikely win.
That makes it eight wins in the past 16 races for Stewart-Haas Racing, but the focus of this race is going to be on the wreck during the first green-white-checkered that took out the top three cars, driven by Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer.
According to the ESPN Stats & Information crew, that was just the third wreck involving the cars running 1-2-3 in the past 150 Cup points races.
The other two took place in the Daytona 500. In 2009, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. were involved. In 2011, Regan Smith, Kurt Busch and Bowyer tangled.
Bowyer, remember, also was a victim (or the perpetrator, depending who you ask) of Sunday's wreck.
Trivia break! Besides Stewart-Haas Racing, what other teams have multiple wins in the past 16 races?
Gordon's heartbreak
Gordon was going for all sorts of history Sunday. Not only would a win have been his eighth at Martinsville, good for third all time, it would've given Hendrick Motorsports its long-awaited 200th victory.
Gordon led 328 laps but finished 14th. In Martinsville history, that's the seventh-most laps led by a driver in a non-win and the most since Rusty Wallace led 343 in April 2000 but finished 10th.
Only one driver has ever led more than 300 laps in a Martinsville race and finished worse than Gordon. In 1971, Donnie Allison led 367 laps but finished 15th.
Trivia break! After Gordon and Johnson, what driver has the most wins for Hendrick Motorsports?
Best of the worst
NASCAR releases a stat called driver rating, which closely mirrors the NFL's passer rating. Anything over 100 is good, and it maxes out at 150. The stat involves many of NASCAR's loop-data numbers and is a good indicator of overall performance above just finishing position.
Well, Gordon's was a 133.0 on Sunday, despite the 14th-place finish.
Going back to the start of the 2007 season, Gordon's mark is the best single-race rating for a driver not to finish in the top 10. The previous best mark was Kyle Busch's 132.7 in the 2009 Chase race at Texas, where he finished 11th.
Sunday also was Gordon's first race this season with a driver rating of over 100.
Trivia break! Who are the only two drivers with more Martinsville wins than Gordon?
Trivia break answers
1. Penske Racing and Roush Fenway Racing have two wins apiece in the past 16 races.
2. Terry Labonte won 12 races with Hendrick, third-most with the team.
3. Richard Petty has 15 Martinsville wins. Darrell Waltrip has 11.
The men's and women's college basketball tournaments are down to just four teams each, but here in my NASCAR Bracket of Massive Significance, I'm not ready for that yet. Our quarterfinals have left us with some very intriguing matchups:
Earnhardt Bracket
Greg Biffle versus Martin Truex Jr.: Biffle's numbers at Martinsville are less than stellar. He's never had a top-5 finish there. Truex just has one top-5 but was eighth there last fall, so he's my pick.
Allison Bracket
Dale Earnhardt Jr. versus Matt Kenseth: These two have a history dating back to the Nationwide Series before it was the Nationwide Series. Junior has been excellent at Martinsville lately; I like him to reach the semis.
France Bracket
Kevin Harvick versus Tony Stewart: Fun matchup between last year's Martinsville winners. Stewart won his last start, but his three before that were all 24th or worse. Harvick has three straight top-5s at the Paper Clip, so he's my man.
Petty Bracket
Clint Bowyer versus Paul Menard: The only non-1-versus-2 matchup in the bracket. Bowyer's Martinsville numbers aren't great, but Menard has never had a top-10 there.
Three-man show?
In the previous 10 races at Martinsville, three drivers have separated themselves from the pack: Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson.
Those three all have an average finish of 5.1 or better in that time. No other driver has a mark better than 10th.
So, looking inside the numbers, who's the man to beat? Or who's the guy to pick up if you can have only one on your fantasy team? That depends on how you look at it.
In terms of how many times these drivers have been passed the previous 10 races, Johnson has been passed the fewest at 292. And he does the best of staying up front with an average position of 5.4. The other two each have been passed more than 300 times in those races, with average positions between sixth and seventh.
But if you look at pure speed, Gordon has been the fastest driver on the track most often. He's run the fastest lap on 559 circuits over the 10 races. Johnson's at 491, and Hamlin 420.
At the end of the race, a tight finish also favors Gordon. Over the final 10 percent in each of those 10 races, Gordon has a plus-2 pass differential, while Johnson and Hamlin have put up negative numbers.
However, not much separates these drivers, and all three will be heavy threats up front all day Sunday.
Looking for trouble
Every week, our stats and analysis team compiles a breakdown of the wrecks at the next track on the schedule. Here's this week's takeaway:
For everybody who missed the slam-banging action at Bristol two weeks ago, you might be in luck.
Since 2004, when Martinsville was repaved, no track has featured more accidents than Martinsville with 154. The next highest is Charlotte with 108, then Bristol at 103.
And when deciding what end of the track to focus on, pick Turns 3 and 4. Since 1990, there've been 130 accidents in Turns 3 and 4, opposed to 86 in Turns 1 and 2.
The Eliminator: Martinsville
For those of you new to my little blog, every week I use a device called The Eliminator to make my race pick. It's pretty simple: Instead of telling you why one guy will win, I'll point out why everybody else has to lose. The driver remaining, by process of elimination, is the race winner.
1. Eleven of the past 12 Martinsville winners finished in the top 20 in the previous week's race ( 26 eliminated, 19 remaining).
2. The past seven spring Martinsville winners finished ninth or better in the previous Martinsville race (12 eliminated, seven remaining).
3. The past nine Martinsville winners had a top-10 in the most recent Richmond race (three eliminated, four remaining).
4. The past seven Martinsville winners had a top-5 finish in the previous New Hampshire race (three eliminated, one remaining).
Your winner: Tony Stewart
Looking straight up at the Sprint Cup winners at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, two teams have dominated Victory Lane -- Hendrick Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing, combining to win 12 of the 14 races at the track.
And although Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards have both won there recently, I want to analyze two Hendrick drivers for my little blog this week. And I can, because it's my blog.
Jimmie Johnson has won four of the past seven Las Vegas races, but in true Sin City fashion, it's been all or nothing for the 48.
Besides those four wins, Johnson has never had a top-5 finish at Las Vegas, and he's finished 16th or worse in three of the past four races. His race here last season was especially a letdown.
In that race, Johnson was passed 84 times under green flag, the most he's been passed in a Vegas race since NASCAR began tracking loop data in 2005. He also failed to lead a lap and spent just 37 percent of his laps in the top 15, so a 16th-place finish might've been better than he ran.
Jeff Gordon is another story. He has one Vegas win, coming back in his last championship season, 2001. But Gordon has been overdue for a win at Vegas, as he's had five top-5 finishes in his past seven races.
So what's his problem?
Plain and simple, Gordon has to run a clean race. His only two non-top-5 finishes in the past seven events there were races he wrecked out of, including a hard crash in 2008 that was scary to watch. Last year, Gordon finished 36th after wrecking out. Over the past four Vegas races, he's the only driver with multiple crash-related DNFs.
In fact, Gordon has been involved in four accidents at Vegas since the track opened, the only driver involved in that many.
Looking for Trouble
Every week, our stats and analysis team sends out a breakdown of the wrecks at a track. I'm going to call this weekly entry Looking for Trouble. Here's this week's takeaway:
Watch out for Turn 2 at Las Vegas. Statistically, the second turn is usually the most dangerous, as six of the past seven most-wrecked areas of all tracks are the second turn. But Vegas' second turn is especially treacherous.
At Vegas, 46.8 percent of all wrecks take place in the second turn. That's the highest percentage of any track's accidents in a single area dating back to 1999.
The Eliminator: Las Vegas
For those of you new to my little blog, every week I use a device called The Eliminator to make my race pick. It's pretty simple: Instead of telling you why one guy will win, I'll point out why everybody else has to lose. The driver remaining, by process of elimination, is the race winner.
1. The past eight Las Vegas winners finished 16th or better in both of the previous season's Charlotte races (32 eliminated, 11 remaining).
2. Every Las Vegas winner finished in the top 15 in the most recent Chicagoland race since that track opened (five eliminated, six remaining).
3. Every Las Vegas winner had a top-4 finish in one of the first two races of the season (five eliminated, one remaining).
Your winner: Kevin Harvick.
I'm going to call it like I see it. As a stats guy, I love it when I'm right. Who doesn't?
But, sometimes, I like being proved wrong when it means somebody has thrown past evidence aside to succeed, and that's why I'm digging Brad Keselowski after he finished second at New Hampshire.
It's a little strange that Keselowski struggled to the degree he did last season. I mean, he was winning a Nationwide Series championship while simultaneously putting up no top-5s and two top-10s on the Sprint Cup side. And none of those top-10s came in the first 31 races, and he didn't finish better than 10th all year.
Maybe something just clicked, and maybe it was the addition of crew chief Paul Wolfe on the Cup side that got him the rest of the way there. Either way, Keselowski's improvement has been impressive.
Let's take a look at his driver rating, a figure that measures a driver's total performance on a scale from 0-150. From last year, his driver rating is up 22.2 points, the biggest jump by a full-time driver this season.
To compare, last year, only one driver had a jump that big, Kevin Harvick, whose rating jumped 22.3 points as he finished third in the points.
Keselowski's driver rating this year is a solid 87.3, 11th best in the series. But that's not a fair look at it, since Keselowski did struggle somewhat early in the year.
After the July Daytona race, Keselowski's driver rating on the season was a 76.6, ranking 20th among the full-time Cup drivers. Since then, his driver rating per race averages out to 103.7. If he put up that mark for the entire season, he'd rank second in the series behind Kyle Busch.
I was among the many who were just waiting for Keselowski's Cinderella run to end. Now, I'm starting to think it just might not.
The Eliminator: Dover Edition
Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking a name off the top of their head. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.
1) The past 12 Dover winners had a top-20 finish in the previous Phoenix race (25 drivers eliminated, 20 remaining).
2) The past eight fall Dover winners finished in the top 11 of the previous year's fall Dover race (12 eliminated, eight remaining).
3) The past six race winners this season all finished seventh or better in the previous week's race (seven eliminated, one remaining).
Your winner: Jeff Gordon
Color me intrigued by the Chase so far (or for our international friends, colour me intrigued)
Chicago provided a wild start, with fuel-mileage issues and penalties resulting in a shuffled Chase field in a year with a new points system in which poor finishes are punished even more and consistency is even more valuable.
New Hampshire marks the start of an interesting stretch of the schedule. First of all, it starts a stretch of distinctive tracks, after the flat magic mile, we get the high banks of Dover and then a couple of intermediates before heading to Talladega.
But it's also the stretch of eight straight tracks that the series has already visited this year. So it's time to use what we've learned. I hope you've been studying.
At New Hampshire, I like one driver near the top of the Chase to stay near the top, while I like a guy near the bottom to start making his way back up.
Earlier this year, it was Ryan Newman getting the win at New Hampshire in a race in which he had the most laps led and best driver rating. But I like his owner and teammate, Tony Stewart, to excel Sunday.
Dating back to 2005, Stewart leads the field in fastest laps run, and has the fastest average speed early in runs and in traffic. Plus, despite finishing second to Newman, Stewart has the best overall speed, plus the most fastest laps run.
And in the category that appeared to be Smoke's great weakness, speed late in runs (in which he ranks sixth since 2005), he was the strongest in the field earlier this year.
But don't rule out Mr. Four-Time, Jeff Gordon. Despite a ho-hum 11th-place finish at Loudon earlier this year, Gordon was running fourth with 10 percent of the race left.
Since 2005, Gordon ranks in the top four in all speed categories at New Hampshire, including first in overall speed and second in speed in traffic.
With six championships among them, I expect one of those two to come out on top Sunday (and hopefully not Monday again).
The Eliminator: New Hampshire
Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking a name off the top of their head. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.
1. The last nine fall New Hampshire winners had a top-15 finish in the last Richmond race (31 drivers eliminated, 15 remaining).
2. The last five New Hampshire winners had a top-seven finish in the previous Sprint Cup race (10 eliminated, five remaining).
3. The last four New Hampshire winners finished 14th or better in the previous two New Hampshire races (three eliminated, two remaining).
4. The last four New Hampshire winners had a top-10 in the last Phoenix race (one eliminated, one remaining).
Your winner: Kurt Busch
Ryan McGee tweeted it best when he wrote: "If the Chase is really a microcosm of the regular season, of course we'd start with a fuel mileage race."
Only instead of an upset winner, we had Tony Stewart, who had a strong car all race.
It started the Chase in a topsy-turvy way. Of the bottom four drivers in points entering Chicago, three had top-5 finishes. Of the top four drivers in points entering Chicago, three finished outside the top 20.
For those who finished outside the top 10, that might be their only chance at a slip-up over the next few months. In each of the past two years, Jimmie Johnson won the title with nine top-10 finishes. In the two years before that, it took a mere eight top-10s.
Plus, with the new points system punishing poor finishes more severely than before, it puts drivers in a hole. Denny Hamlin, 41 back, is about a full race behind after the Chase opener.
Another year, another win
Last year, it took 25 races for Stewart to register his first win. This year, he got there in 27. But Stewart just finds a way to win.
This is his 13th straight season with a win, the longest streak since Jeff Gordon won a race in 14 straight from 1994-2007.
What makes Stewart's streak remarkable is that he's never gone a season without winning a race, something that no driver with that many Cup seasons can say.
Trivia break! What two drivers hold the modern-era record for most consecutive years with a win?
Forty wins the hard way
Stewart is the 17th driver to 40 Cup wins, the fourth full-time active driver to reach the mark, joining Gordon, Johnson and Mark Martin.
It's a new age in NASCAR, one in which more drivers win regularly than in the past, so take this note with an asterisk:
Stewart got his 40th win in his 455th start, the second-most starts needed to reach 40 wins in Cup history. The only driver to take more is Martin, who needed 749.
Trivia break! Before Martin and Stewart, who needed the most starts to reach 40 wins?
Sixteen and counting ...
Stewart was the 16th winner this season in just 27 Cup races. You know I love variety.
The 27 races is tied for the third-fastest to 16 different winners in Cup history, trailing only 2003 (25) and 1961 (26).
Trivia break! In 2003, who was that 16th different winner in the 25th race? Hint: It happened in the Southern 500.
Power Rankings
I wanted a way to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I came up with my own little nerdy formula, using recent performance this season, along with recent performance at the specific track.
Remember, this isn't for the Chase as a whole, only heading into New Hampshire.
1. Kurt Busch
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Tony Stewart
5. Carl Edwards
6. Ryan Newman
7. Kevin Harvick
8. Denny Hamlin
9. Kyle Busch
10. Brad Keselowski
11. Matt Kenseth
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Trivia break answers
1. Ricky Rudd and Rusty Wallace both won races in 16 straight seasons.
2. Bill Elliott needed 430 starts to reach 40 wins.
3. Terry Labonte was the 16th different winner in 2003.
Ah, here we are at the Chase, and I do believe it's my time to shine.
But, how much can we depend on past numbers to judge performance at Chicagoland Speedway. After all, this is the first time it's been the first race of the Chase. And unlike past races, this one will be run during the day instead of at night.
Plus, a September race in Chicago is bound to have different temperatures and different track conditions than on a hot, slippery July night.
But let's try to break down some of the notable Chase contenders using past numbers at Chicago, starting with Mr. Five-Time himself, Jimmie Johnson.
This is one of the rare tracks where Johnson has never won, but in seven of his nine starts there, he has finished eighth or better, including a pair of runner-up finishes. But in two of the past four years, Johnson has struggled and finished 37th (2007) and 25th (2010).
Johnson leads all drivers dating back to 2005 in average start and average midrace position at Chicago, but his average finish in that time is 13.5. Speed isn't a problem: His 187 fastest laps run paces the field, with Matt Kenseth (156) and Tony Stewart (124) the only other drivers over 100.
Speaking of Smoke, I'm not ready to rule him out of the Chase, despite his uninspiring performance this year. But Stewart has shown the ability to drop the hammer this time of year, even when he has entered the playoff struggling.
In 2006, Stewart missed the Chase but responded by winning three playoff races, and he finished second and fourth in two others.
It might not matter where Stewart starts, either. Since 2005, his pass differential at Chicago is a plus-141, better than double the next best on the list, Carl Edwards' plus-70.
What about the quiet one, Matt Kenseth? Kenseth is quietly solid in every situation at Chicago, and has shown the speed to win on the 1.5-mile track this season.
Kenseth is third in green-flag speed, speed in traffic and the second-fastest driver late in runs behind Stewart. Kenseth's Chicago finishes over the past couple of years haven't been anything special, but he led a lot of laps in both 2005 and 2006.
Finally, Jeff Gordon has finished second and third at Chicago the last couple of years, and he certainly has more speed this year than the last couple. Expect him to be up front all race, as he didn't fall outside the top 15 in either of the last two Chicago races.
The Eliminator: Chicagoland
Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.
1. The last six Chicago winners finished in the top 11 in the previous Chicago race (37 eliminated, 11 remaining).
2. The first Chase race always has been won by a Chase driver (five eliminated, six remaining).
3. The last three Chicago winners finished 17th or better in each of the two previous Chicago races (three eliminated, three remaining).
4. Three of the last four Sprint Cup Series winners this season finished in the top three in the previous week's race (two eliminated, one remaining).
Your winner: Carl Edwards.
It should be pretty widely accepted that this is the best sports time of the year. We have the Chase, the start of college and pro football, baseball pennant races, and so on.
But, I'm here to talk Chase, since that's probably why you clicked on me. (Thanks for clicking on me.)
Let's talk about how juicy this Chase is. I'm talking nicely-seared, but still moist on the inside. Who wants to join me for a steak?
First, you have Jimmie Johnson. Formerly known as vanilla, Johnson suddenly has himself a heated rivalry with another champ, 2004 title winner Kurt Busch.
I'd say something about Kurt Busch here, but I haven't quite finished this article yet, and I'm worried he might tear it up before I can send it in, like he did here.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is back in the Chase after a two-year absence. Junior's not showing the speed of his teammates right now, but, like Lloyd Christmas said in "Dumb and Dumber," "So you're telling me there's a chance? Yeah!"
And while five-time's going to try to become six-time, there's another driver looking to join Johnson, Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty as drivers with at least five Cup titles, and that's Jeff Gordon.
Let me break it down for you -- numbers style.
Stay Away From the Top
The No. 1 seed for this year's Chase will be Kyle Busch, and his history from that slot isn't great.
Think back to 2008, when Busch came in looking like the man to beat, already having won eight races.
But his Chase started with finishes of 34th, 43rd and 28th, making him an afterthought.
This year, the talk is of the new Kyle Busch. Hopefully, he has a short memory.
Trivia break: Who is the only driver to win the Chase after starting outside the top three in points?
Feels Like the First Time
Brad Keselowski is the only first-time Chaser in this year's field, and like Busch, that hasn't been a good slot to be in.
In 2010, there were no first-time Chasers, but in the previous year, we had two, Juan Pablo Montoya and Brian Vickers. Montoya finished the Chase eighth in points, while Vickers was 12th.
Trivia break: Since the Chase expanded to 12 drivers in 2007, who has the best finish by a first-time Chaser?
What it Takes
So, having analyzed the numbers, here's what I think it'll take to win the Chase.
It might not take wins, four of the past seven Chases have been won by a driver winning one or fewer Chase races.
Over the past four years, Jimmie Johnson has averaged 6.5 top-5s and 8.5 top-10s en route to the title. His average finish was a 5.9 and he didn't record a single DNF.
It's a tall task, but one driver has to be up to it.
Trivia break: Who is the only driver to win a Chase without winning a Chase race that same season?
Chase Power Rankings
I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis.
So I came up with my own little nerdy formula, using recent performance this season, along with recent performance at the track.
Remember, this isn't for the rest of the Chase, only heading into Chicago.
1. Jeff Gordon
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Carl Edwards
4. Tony Stewart
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kyle Busch
7. Matt Kenseth
8. Denny Hamlin
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Ryan Newman
11. Kurt Busch
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Trivia Break Answers
1) Kurt Busch started the 2004 Chase seventh but won the title.
2) Clint Bowyer was third in 2007.
3 Tony Stewart won the 2005 title without winning a Chase race.
When you talk about road course racing in the Sprint Cup Series, two names instantly come to mind: Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart.
Gordon has nine wins in 37 road course starts, Stewart has seven in 27 starts. That ranks one-two in Cup history, with no other driver having more than six (each of the four drivers tied with six have at least 46 road course starts).
Among active drivers, only Mark Martin (with four) has more than two wins, and no active driver has a better winning percentage on road courses than Gordon and Stewart.
Here's why I think one of those two will struggle while the other excels Sunday at Watkins Glen (1 p.m. ET on ESPN):
First, let's talk about Stewart, who could definitely use a win to solidify his Chase hopes. Smoke's the all-time wins leader at the Glen with five, all coming in the past nine races, with no finish worse than 11th.
Stewart has been dominant lately at The Glen. Over the past six races, he ranks first in overall speed, and his loop-data ranks are blowing away the field.
Meanwhile, Jeff Gordon has four Watkins Glen wins, but those all came from 1997-2001. Since then, he hasn't finished better than ninth over a nine-race span.
Last year, Gordon ran over 92 percent of the laps inside the top 15 but never ran higher than seventh. Over the past two races at The Glen, he hasn't had a single fastest lap run, and in 2008 he had only a pair of fastest laps.
Over the past six years, Gordon's average speed ranks 10th in the series. Not terrible, but not great considering he is the all-time leader in road course wins.
Two road course icons, but two different trends at The Glen to watch out for on Sunday.
The Eliminator: Watkins Glen
Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking names off the top of their heads.
I don't pick winners -- I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.
1. The past eight and 16 of the past 18 Watkins Glen winners finished in the top 15 in the previous year's race there (32 eliminated, 14 remaining).
2. The past 10 Watkins Glen winners finished eighth or better in the most recent Richmond race (10 eliminated, four remaining).
3. The past four and 11 of the past 14 Watkins Glen winners had a top-10 in the most recent Sonoma race (three eliminated, one remaining).
Your winner: Carl Edwards.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Matt Willis
Matt Willis has been a researcher with the ESPN Stats & Information Group since 2006, working on "NASCAR Now" and "SportsCenter," among other shows.
He graduated from Ithaca College in 2006 with a degree in journalism. While there, he worked on ICTV on shows such as "Ya Think You Know Sports?" and "Sports Final."
He also was a member of the IC Comedy Club and figures about half the jokes he makes in his column are funny.
You can reach Matt at ESPNMattWillis@yahoo.com for any NASCAR-related questions or comments. Or, if you just want to talk. It never hurts to have an extra friend.