Matt Kenseth Analysis

ESPN.com preseason rank: No. 4

So what did the racing geniuses at ESPN.com think of your favorite driver? Check out how writers Terry Blount, Ed Hinton, Ryan McGee, David Newton and Marty Smith as well as editors Joe Breeze and K. Lee Davis voted heading into the 2012 season. The Vote

2012 Outlook

Don't tell Matt Kenseth that his teammate outraced him in the Chase last season. Matt's not buying it.

Yes, Roush Fenway Racing teammate Carl Edwards scored more points and tied Tony Stewart for the top spot (points-wise), but Kenseth thinks his No. 17 Ford team was right there with Edwards and the No. 99 Ford.

"I'm trying to word this the right way," Kenseth said. "I think we performed better than Carl down the stretch. We really did. I think most races we ran better than him. At Homestead he was a tick better than us, and a couple other races. But really, just off of performance, I thought we could outrun them."

OK, let's review the 2011 Chase. Kenseth had one victory (Charlotte) and six tops-10s, which included five top-5s.

Edwards didn't have a victory in the Chase but posted nine top-10s, including seven top-5s. He finished ahead of Kenseth in seven of the 10 playoff races.

So Kenseth's statement doesn't seem to make much sense, until you consider one thing -- Brian Vickers. Kenseth was second in the standings with four races to go, only 14 points behind Edwards, before tangling with Vickers at Martinsville and Phoenix.

Kenseth admitted deliberately wrecking Vickers at Martinsville after Vickers bumped him several times. That incident may have caused a cut tire for Kenseth later in the race that led to a 31st-place finish.

It was payback time at Phoenix when Vickers obviously wrecked Kenseth intentionally, leading to a 34th-place finish for Kenseth in the next-to-last race of the season. Kenseth's championship hopes were over.

It was a surprising way to go down for one of the calmest and most calculating drivers in NASCAR, a man who prides himself on keeping his composure and staying out of trouble.

"Wrecking out of both of those races really hurt us," Kenseth said. "But we know how good we were. We weren't as good as Tony, so we still need to get better. But if we can build on that performance and make it a little bit better, and I can do a better job behind the wheel, I think we're capable of great things."

Kenseth's one Cup title came in 2003, the year before the Chase started. And the way he won, coasting home in the final weeks with a huge points lead over Jimmie Johnson, was a factor in NASCAR opting to go to a playoff-type format.

Kenseth has finished fifth or better in four Chase seasons, including second to Johnson in 2006. The ESPN.com guys believe he's capable of another top-5 run in the Chase, but he needs to step it up a notch to win another title.

He'll need to do it this year with an RFR organization that cut back from four to three cars.

"I don't think it's going to be much different," Kenseth said. "We still have both [Richard Petty Motorsports] cars in all of our meetings and share everything, so you've still got five teams there. I think that's plenty.

"I think there's a number that's not enough and a number that's too much. I don't know what those are. I know from a business standpoint they always think bigger is better. I think from a performance standpoint, you can be too big."

One thing Kenseth doesn't have enough of this season is sponsorship. Best Buy has signed on for nine races, and a few others have one-off deals to fill about a third of the schedule.

It's part of the economic times when a former champion on a top team, and a man who finished fourth in the standings last season, can't find full sponsorship.

But another factor for Kenseth is the fact that he just doesn't stand out. He is a quiet man who enjoys spending time with his children and reading books. He probably receives less attention than any other top-10 driver.

That will change if Kenseth finds a way to win another championship.

"I just think everybody is different," Kenseth said. "There are all different kinds of personalities in this sport and I think that's what makes it exciting. I don't think you want everybody to be the same."

Odds of winning it all in 2012: 7-1. Kenseth is the most consistent driver in NASCAR. He's smooth and calculating. And he's probably the best in Cup at making a good finish out of a bad day. He rarely makes mistakes, but he also rarely take chances. A little more of the latter might help.

2011 In Review

2011 Preseason Rank: 10

Obviously, Matt exceeded our expectations last season. What he couldn't do was exceed his teammate, Carl Edwards. Kenseth had two more victories than Edwards (three to one) but seven fewer top-5s (19 to 12). That partially accounts for the 73-point difference between them at the end, along with the fact that Kenseth had three DNFs and Edwards had none.

Grade: B-plus. Kenseth had three victories and 20 top-10s, third-best in the series last season. But finishes of 31st and 34th in two of the last four races ended his chances of winning the title.

-- Terry Blount