Chase shake-up at RIR? Not likely

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RICHMOND, Va. -- Unless something surprising happens Saturday night, the 12 drivers who make the Chase under the new playoff rules will be the same 12 who would have made it under the old rules.

And the 12 guys who enter the race inside the playoff field probably are the same 12 who make the 2011 Chase.

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John Harrelson/Getty ImagesDale Earnhardt Jr. needs to finish 20th or better at Richmond on Saturday to lock up a Chase spot.

All those interesting changes about winning races for wild-card spots, setting up the possible drama of a win-and-you're-in scenario for Richmond probably won't happen.

I have to say "probably" because anything is possible, but don't bet on it. It will take a major shocker under the lights on the Richmond short track for someone to get into the Chase who isn't already in the field.

Oh, well. It was, and still is, a good idea, putting more emphasis on winning. Making the final two Chase berths based on victories was the right thing to do.

The wild-card format has changed the way teams raced this season. Almost every week, somebody took a chance and gambled on winning. And sometimes it worked.

Drivers won this season who never won in the past. Three of them -- Paul Menard, Marcos Ambrose and David Ragan -- still have a shot at the Chase.

The drivers who led the most laps rarely won because teams took chances on fuel mileage and pit strategy. The unexpected became the norm.

But as it turns out, the drivers 11th and 12th in the points standings (Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin) also happen to be the wild-card qualifiers.

Officially, 11 drivers outside the Chase 12 still have a shot of getting into the playoff. That's a first, and it's great. At least they have a chance.

Unofficially, their chances are about as likely as another earthquake striking the East Coast on Saturday night. If the ground starts shaking, blame me.

Menard is the only driver not inside the Chase cutoff with a guaranteed win-and-you're-in situation for the Chase-decider race. A Menard victory at Richmond would place him into a wild-card spot (and knock Hamlin out) because Menard would have two victories.

"Richmond is definitely a track that has been a challenge for us," Menard said. "We're slow there for some reason. We qualify well, but don't race well."

Menard's chances of winning here appear remote, but so did his chances of winning the Brickyard 400.

A lot of guys could win and maybe get in. Maybe. It depends on how many points they gain in the process, but no there are guarantees.

The seven drivers who rank directly below Hamlin in the standings all are winless this season. Even with a victory, only two -- AJ Allmendinger (13th) and Clint Bowyer (14th) -- have any realistic hope of passing him in the points standings. Ties in the wild-card spots are decided on points.

"The Chase thing is pretty much over," Bowyer said Thursday.

Bowyer was talking about his chances. He's 12 points behind Hamlin, so his chances are better than those of most guys. He could get in with a win if Hamlin finishes outside the top 10. Allmendinger is one point ahead of Bowyer.

So who is on the bubble? Keselowski has clinched a spot with three wins. Three drivers still could fall out -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. in ninth, Tony Stewart in 10th and Hamlin in the final wild-card spot.

They could, but probably won't. Keselowski would love to move into the top 10 in points because he would start the Chase tied for second at worst, or tied for first with Kyle Busch if Keselowski wins Saturday and moves up.

Not likely. Earnhardt needs only to finish 20th of better to stay in the top 10, even if Keselowski wins. Stewart needs to finish 18th or better if Keselowski wins.

A Keselowski move into the top 10 would free up a wild-card spot. So will those wild-card eligible guys let him by Saturday night?

''I hope they give me some breaks," Keselowski said Friday. "It would be kind of dumb if they didn't."

Not necessarily. Keselowski probably needs to win to have any shot at moving into the top 10. That's great for Paul Menard, but not good for all those winless guys hoping to pass Hamlin.

The drivers who need to win to get in are drivers who, statistically speaking, have little chance of winning this race or can't make up enough points to catch Hamlin. But a victory is the only way, so it could make for some desperation moves on the track, part of the reason this format works.

Without a Saturday-night shocker, the wild-card format won't play out as hoped this time. And that's OK.

But you never know. Thanks to the format change, 2011 has been a shocking season, in a good way. No matter what happens at Richmond, it was a change for the better.

Terry Blount is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His book, "The Blount Report: NASCAR's Most Overrated and Underrated Drivers, Cars, Teams, and Tracks," was published by Triumph Books and is available in bookstores. Click here to order a copy. Blount can be reached at terry@blountspeak.com.

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Terry Blount | email

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• Senior writer for ESPN.com
• 25 years for Texas newspapers
• Member of Texas Motorsports Hall of Fame