NASCAR expert picks: Texas
Matt Kenseth won at Texas in April, but hard-charging Tony Stewart and consistency king Carl Edwards are looking to separate themselves from the field. Who will be the lone winner as the Chase heads to the Lone Star State? ESPN NASCAR personalities Ricky Craven, Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace, Brad Daugherty and Jamie Little share their podium picks for Texas Motor Speedway.
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Matt Kenseth has been the driver who has shown me the most strength on these 1.5-mile tracks, especially in the Chase. He ran extremely well at Texas in April, and I don't see anything changing this weekend. He made a very uncharacteristic mistake in being too aggressive in a payback situation at Martinsville and may have taken himself out of the championship battle. But stringing together a couple of top-5 finishes in these remaining three races might give him a shot.
A lot of us picked Jeff Gordon to be the guy to beat in this Chase, and that hasn't held true. But looking back at his Atlanta win makes me think he'll finish well at Texas because the two racetracks share similarities, mostly in banking and grip level. He'll be right there with Kenseth.
In third, I'm going with Tony Stewart. Momentum is a wonderful thing to have on your side, and I look for him to apply even more pressure on Carl Edwards. I still think Edwards will finish in the top ten but I expect Stewart to make things closer in this Chase.
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Matt Kenseth is taking the same car he won with at Charlotte a few weeks ago to this weekend's race in Texas, and he really needs a win. The last few weeks have been very damaging to his championship hopes. But keep in mind that there aren't many drivers who can chase down Kyle Busch late in the race and pass him the way Kenseth did at Charlotte, a track that didn't see a lot of passing. You can't count him out at Texas, especially with his successful history there.
Jimmie Johnson, my second-place finisher, left an impression on me last year when he passed Denny Hamlin battling for the championship. He's a risk taker. For the same reason he wrecked at Charlotte, I'm picking him to be among the leaders at Texas -- he has a unique ability to lay it on the line every week regardless of the consequences.
Texas has also been a strong track for Carl Edwards, and he's the only driver with top-5 finishes in the three previous 1.5-mile tracks. I expect him to continue his good-on-average approach and finish third.
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With three career wins at Texas, the points lead and the golden horseshoe on his side, Carl Edwards is my pick to win it. He's been consistent the last few months, but not the fastest man in the field. I think Texas is where we'll see the No. 99 car outshine the others and prove why he's going to be a champion in two weeks.
After his win in spectacular form last weekend, the Tony Stewart of old has been unleashed! No more humble pie for Smoke. He made it very clear he's cashing in his nice-guy tickets, starting now. He is trying to get in Edwards' head with a little smack talk. And although they will be near one another all race long on Sunday, I'm giving that edge to Edwards.
After finishing 31st last week and watching the hopes of another championship slip further out of reach, Matt Kenseth will come to Texas with some unfinished business. The thought of Brian Vickers and their (multiple) run-ins last week may just be the fuel he needs to power to the front. Kenseth won there in April and finished second a year ago. If he wants to get back into the championship hunt, he must make up some serious ground on Keselowski and Harvick. And Texas is just the place to get it done.
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Carl Edwards has always run well at Texas and he's been targeting this track for a long time, saying he's going to have a good race. But the recent resurgence of Tony Stewart makes me think he'll be in the mix as well. With all of his momentum, you have to believe he's going to have his act together and be ready to go. And lastly, I don't think anyone can overlook the strength of a driver like Jimmie Johnson. He finished second at Martinsville, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him near the top of the Texas leaderboard, either.
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I think Carl Edwards is going to have to win a race in this Chase to win the Championship, and it starts this weekend at Texas. Back in April, Edwards finished third and Matt Kenseth won, but both of those Fords were dominant all race long. I'm expecting similar results out of that group. I'm going to go with Kevin Harvick to finish third. I don't think his team always has the speed needed to win, but they find a way to get up there in the top five and make things happen.