Phoenix Chase chances, Friday the 13th edition 

November, 13, 2009

Once again, it's time to burrow deep and get all dirtied up in the numbers concerning the Chase racers' chances at this week's track, in this case the one-mile flat "roval" (road course + oval) of the Phoenix International Raceway.

As always, I rank the 12 Chasers in order of who I think has the best chance of winning this weekend, based on their career numbers at PIR, recent momentum and how they ran there in the spring. After glancing at the digits, I have two immediate observations: (1) Last week it was amazing how many different Chasers had won at Texas, eight of the 12. This week it is amazing how few have won at Phoenix, only five of the dozen. (2) Mark Martin needs to win perhaps more this weekend than any other during his storied career, and that's exactly what he did back in April. His lifetime numbers suggest he can do it again. Unfortunately, Jimmie Johnson's résumé is even better. Current points rankings are in parentheses.

Ryan McGee | email

ESPN Senior Writer