Short of kidnapping points leader Matt Kenseth and holding him for ransom to keep him out of the final three races, dreams of winning the Winston Cup championship are all but over for his three closest challengers, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson.

While Kenseth continues to look down from his comfortable perch atop the standings heading into Sunday's Checker Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway, Earnhardt Jr., Harvick and Johnson are all continuing to do what they've done all season: look up at Kenseth.

With a 258-point lead over his closest challenger (Earnhardt Jr.) heading into this weekend's race, it's almost a certainty that Kenseth will clinch his first Winston Cup championship (and the first in the 16-year history of Roush Racing) next week at Rockingham, N.C.

"It's over," Harvick dejectedly said following Sunday's disappointing 20th-place finish at Atlanta, all but conceding the title to Kenseth.

Mathematically, Kenseth could even clinch this Sunday at PIR, but it would take a lot: namely, Earnhardt Jr., Harvick and Johnson would all would have to wreck out of the race or finish near the back of the pack. (Even Jeff Gordon, currently 296 points behind Kenseth, could keep his title chances mathematically alive by finishing ahead of or just behind the points leader on Sunday). Kenseth would have to leave Phoenix with a 303-point margin to crack open the champagne, assuming he makes all of his remaining starts.

Regardless of where Kenseth clinches, his three pursuers are left with one remaining battle: to see who will finish second.

"Matt has all but sewn up the championship, so the real battle is for second place," Johnson said. "With only three races left, we still have some fight left in us. I'm confident that we can ride the momentum we've built over the last month to finish the season on a high note."

Earnhardt Jr. leads Harvick by four points and Johnson by eight points. Gordon, who has won the last two races, is also knocking at the door, just 30 points behind teammate Johnson and 38 points behind Earnhardt.

"Our main focus has been second in points," Gordon said. "We've made great gains toward that. I guess if there's a miracle, there's still a possibility.

"These past two weeks have really given our team the needed confidence to take on these tracks where we know we can win but haven't (Gordon has yet to win at Phoenix and Homestead-Miami in his career). With only three races left, I think we have some more left in us before it's all over this year."

	Kenseth won at Phoenix last season.

While Earnhardt Jr. knows the real battle in the three remaining races is for second-place, he still hasn't quite given up on catching Kenseth, either. It was just a few weeks ago that Kenseth went from having a dominating 429-point lead to quickly losing 177 points in two consecutive races (Talladega, Ala., and Kansas), thus significantly tightening the championship chase. And while he's recovered from that two-race bobble, Junior knows Kenseth could go back into the tank.

"We gained a few points on Matt (at Atlanta)," Earnhardt said. "We'll just keep gaining until we can't gain any more."

Whether the attainable prize is a Cup championship or a runner-up finish, there are key points on the line at Phoenix. And Earnhardt Jr. still has a sour taste lingering in his mouth from last year's race at PIR. He led 105 laps in that event, arguably had the strongest and fastest car in the field, only to run out of gas, forcing him to coast back to pit road. However, he did mount an admirable comeback, ultimately finishing fifth.

"It's safe to say I was about as angry as I had been all season when that happened," Earnhardt Jr. said. "That killed any chance we had to win."

As for returning to Phoenix and being in the midst of a tight points battle for second place, Earnhardt Jr. says, "The point standings are so close right now, we can't afford to make a mistake like that (running out of gas) again, but I believe we're a much better team than we were one year ago."

But no matter what Junior does, Kenseth is in the driver's seat. And while it's unlikely Kenseth will suffer the greatest points meltdown in Winston Cup history (short of a season-ending crash), he's not taking anything for granted.

Even if Harvick so firmly claims "it's over," Kenseth isn't resting on his laurels. The defending Phoenix race winner knows there is still work to be done.

About as close as he'll come to saying he's on the verge of winning the title is a simple, "Yeah, that's (258 points) quite a few points, but anything can happen. But there's only three races to go and we've been real strong in the past at both Phoenix and Rockingham, so I look forward to this. The big picture looks good."

Jerry Bonkowski covers NASCAR for ESPN.com. He can be reached at Motorsportwriter@MSN.com.