Big Brown will win the Preakness, not the Belmont

Updated: May 16, 2008, 4:22 PM ET
By Bill Finley | Special to ESPN.com

Big Brown will win the Preakness. He will not win the Belmont.

Here's a look at how the next three-plus weeks will likely unfold and how you should bet the Preakness:

Big Brown probably won't run as well in the Preakness as he did in the Kentucky Derby, an effort that is even better than it looks on paper. He broke from the 20 post, was about five paths off the rail the entire trip and still obliterated his opponents. It was nothing short of sensational.

But that was off five ...

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