Man United headlines final CL match day

December, 7, 2011
12/07/11
10:42
AM ET

The final four berths in the round of 16 will be claimed on the last day of the Champions League group stage. Premier League leaders Manchester City and Manchester United are among those that have work to do to reach the knockout stage. Here are the scenarios and the Soccer Power Index projections for Wednesday's matches.

Group A

Bayern Munich has already advanced to the Round of 16 for the fourth straight year, leaving Napoli and Manchester City battling for the group runner-up spot. Napoli leads Man City by a point and advances with a win at Villarreal or a Man City loss or tie versus Bayern Munich. City needs a win and a Napoli loss or tie to advance. SPI gives Napoli a 71.3 percent chance to reach the knockout stage for the first time.

Group B

Inter Milan has won the group, reaching the knockout stage for the eighth straight season. The other three teams are separated by one point, with Turkish club Trabzonspor holding the edge. Either Lille or Trabzonspor advances by defeating the other. If they draw, CSKA Moscow advances with a win at Inter. SPI gives Lille a 58 percent chance to advance, Trabzonspor 36 percent and CSKA Moscow 6 percent.

Group C

Benfica has already advanced for the first time in six seasons. Defending runner-up Manchester United must win or draw at Basel to reach the knockout stage for the sixth straight season. Basel must beat United to advance past the group stage for the first time in nine seasons. United is an 80 percent favorite to advance, according to SPI.

Group D

Real Madrid has won the group, advancing past the group stage for a record 15th straight season. With a win, Real Madrid will be the fifth team to win all six group games, and the first since Barcelona in 2002-03. However, none of those previous four teams won the title. Ajax will finish as the runner-up unless Lyon wins, Ajax loses and Lyon makes up seven goals in goal difference. Ajax advances in over 99 percent of SPI simulations.

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