Commentary

Don't bet against the defending champs

Updated: October 27, 2010, 9:40 AM ET
By Jeff Carlisle | ESPN.com

David Ferreira and Javier MoralesAP PhotoCreative forces: FC Dallas' David Ferreira and Real Salt Lake's Javier Morales will look to create opportunities for their respective sides.

Real Salt Lake vs. FC Dallas
Saturday: Real Salt Lake at Dallas, 5 p.m. ET, Fox Soccer Channel
Nov. 6: Dallas at Real Salt Lake, 10 p.m. ET, Fox Soccer Channel

Playoff matchups featuring the second- and third-place teams often require a microscope to discern the likely winner. And while the series between reigning champion Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas appears to fall into that category, further inspection reveals a bit more daylight between the two sides.

Real Salt Lake is currently riding a 14-game unbeaten streak that includes a 2-0 win over FCD on Oct. 16. The last team to beat RSL? Dallas, of course, which in the midst of fashioning a league-record 19-game unbeaten run secured a 2-0 win of its own July 17.

But as the playoffs beckon, it appears a spate of injuries has finally caught up with Dallas, as its once airtight defense has looked less cohesive of late. Given the array of attacking weapons at RSL's disposal, that will need to change in a hurry if Dallas is to make its way to the Western Conference final.

Key matchup: Real Salt Lake midfielder Kyle Beckerman vs. FC Dallas midfielder David Ferreira

It's a classic destroyer-versus-creator matchup, although to be fair, there is more to Beckerman's game than just breaking up attacks. That said, much of Dallas' offense flows through Ferreira, and it will largely fall to Beckerman to keep the Colombian in check.

Beckerman possesses the physicality needed to knock the Dallas midfielder off his stride, and his ability to contribute to the offense has long been an underrated attribute. But Ferreira has proved to be adept at avoiding the kind of physical challenges for which Beckerman is known, with his mobility, especially in transition, allowing him to pop up all over the field.

Key players: For Real Salt Lake: defender Jamison Olave, midfielder Javier Morales and forward Alvaro Saborio. For FC Dallas: defender Ugo Ihemelu, midfielder Daniel Hernandez and midfielder Brek Shea.

[+] EnlargeSalt Lake City
Tom Hauck/Getty ImagesReal Salt Lake celebrates winning last year's MLS Cup after defeating the Galaxy 5-4 on penalty kicks.

RSL set a record this year by allowing just 20 goals, and Olave -- with his size and mobility allowing him to put out plenty of fires -- was at the heart of the team's defensive success. Real has a varied attack, but Morales is still the team's primary creative force. Saborio has been one of the finds of the season, and his consistent finishing stands in stark contrast to the erratic Robbie Findley.

Ihemelu has only just returned to the field after recovering from a concussion he sustained in August. It's still unclear whether manager Schellas Hyndman will opt to start the veteran over rookie Zach Loyd, but Ihemelu's athleticism will come in handy against Saborio. Hernandez has proved to be an effective bulwark in front of the back line and often drops deep to initiate the attack, but a hamstring injury could limit both his minutes and effectiveness. Shea hasn't been as impactful since getting sent off against New York on Sept. 16 and then getting called up to the U.S. national team. His pace and power will be needed to test RSL's back line.

X factors: Real Salt Lake goalkeeper Nick Rimando and FC Dallas goalkeeper Kevin Hartman

Each keeper is a candidate to tip the series in his team's favor, but for different reasons. Rimando has enjoyed a dream season, and given his knack for prevailing in penalty shootouts, he inspires plenty of confidence throughout the team. Hartman has been sidelined since injuring his knee courtesy of New York forward Thierry Henry's ill-advised goal celebration. But given the subpar form of stand-in Dario Sala, Hyndman appears to have no choice but to throw Hartman in there, rust and all. Even if Hartman plays at 85 percent of his pre-injury form, it will be an improvement over Sala.

Outlook: A month ago, this matchup would have been impossible to predict, but given the upheaval in Dallas' defense, as well as the struggles of players like Shea and Dax McCarty, this matchup is leaning RSL's way.

Granted, Ferreira certainly is capable of conjuring up one of those magical runs that make playoff legends. What's more, RSL will need to be careful not to get sucked into a track meet with a speedy Dallas side. But FCD's undoing might be that too many of its players have either just returned from nagging injuries or peaked too soon.

Real Salt Lake has not been perfect in the last month -- Colorado, for one, exposed some flaws in its back line -- but Jason Kreis' side has still been able to grind out results despite a punishing schedule. With the likes of Ned Grabavoy, Andy Williams and Will Johnson helping out Morales in midfield, the defending champs seem to have more attacking options at their disposal.

Jeff Carlisle covers MLS and the U.S. national team for ESPNsoccernet. He is also the author of "Soccer's Most Wanted II: The Top 10 Book of More Glorious Goals, Superb Saves and Fantastic Free-Kicks." He can be reached at eljefe1@yahoo.com.

Jeff Carlisle covers MLS and the U.S. national team for ESPNsoccernet.