Nate Ravitz

  (11:01 AM)

Hey guys and gals. It's the down season for fantasy, but I'll take any and all questions.

Bradley (Minneapolis, MN)

Who would you keep for next year and beyond: Randy Moss or Brian Westbrook? I'm already keeping LT and Addai.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:04 AM)

Wow. Tough call. You have a chance to have 3 of the top 5 backs in fantasy (Peterson and Jackson being the other two) for 2008. I think you keep Westbrook, and here's why: You could get more in a trade for Westbrook than Moss. Keep all three until draft day, and then deal one back for a No. 1 WR and a good flex.

Matt NY

Baseball keeper question, keep 3 of this crew: Papi, Manny, Chipper, B. Phillips, Markakis, C. Guillen

Nate Ravitz

  (11:04 AM)

I'd go with Phillips, Papi and Guillen. Manny is slipping, and Markakis isn't *quite* in the elite group yet.

Brick (Brooklyn)

AJ Mass stated in his last chat that Juan Pierre is worthy of consideration in the upper tier of players just outside the top 3 or 4 players. Insanity or no? Should he really be taken before the 4th round?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:06 AM)

AJ likes Pierre more than I do, but he doesn't like him in the first round. The guy did have 64 steals last year (Juan, not AJ). I personally wouldn't take him before Round 5 or 6.

Michael (Portland, ME)

Miguel Tejada: Top 3 NL-only SS?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:08 AM)

Not even close. Hanley, Rollins and Reyes are leaps and bounds better, and I'd also rather have Tulowitzki and Furcal.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Crawford, as good as he is, still hasn't developed that power that people always talk about. He is hitting that peak age about now- 20 hr 50+ steals 300+ average this year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:09 AM)

It's possible, but I don't think it's altogether likely. It's less a power issue and more a swing/approach issue. But then again, his downside is still a top 15 fantasy player.

george (boston)

Nate, do you play the gridiron challenge? What strategy do you use? I'm thinking of picking the cheapest TE and kicker and loading up on my super bowl picks.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:11 AM)

I am in gridiron. I had Cooley and Kaeding at those positions in Round 1. I'm leaning toward Witten and Folk for Round 2.

Steve (MA via E. Hartford)

Which Brian McCann should we expect this year, the .270 or .330 hitter?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:12 AM)

I'd figure .290 or so. The .330 was an anomaly.

Nick (Bronx)

Following up on the Tejada question- what do you predict his stats to be this year? .300 20-90 and a low number of runs?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:13 AM)

The ballpark in Houston isn't going to help him as much as people think, especially with mediocre OBP guys ahead of him. Your projection looks about right, with 85-90 runs and no steals. Very good, but not as good as those other guys.

Sean (Johnstown)

Nate, Back to Furcal as a top 5 NL SS. Do you see him being healthy and going back to his 07 numbers which were quite good down the stretch or is he fading into mediocrity

Nate Ravitz

  (11:15 AM)

Furcal was 12-for-12 on steals in September, which is pretty amazing, and pretty indicative that he was healthy (even though he didn't hit well). I'd figure him to go .285-12-60 with 105 runs and 40 steals

Jeremiah (Richmond)

Nate, do you think jacksonville has a chance against NE

Nate Ravitz

  (11:16 AM)

I do, though I doubt they win. I can see a scenario where the Pats get off to a slow start and the Jags run it down their throats. But at the end of the day, I think the Pats win something like 27-17

Michael (Portland, ME)

Does Matt Kemp break through this season, as in 30HR/100 RBI?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:17 AM)

I don't think he hits 30 homers this soon, though it's possible. I figure something like .300-25-100 with 20 steals for Kemp.

Zac (Utah)

Kevin Jones is a versatile back, who was in a Pass 1st 2nd and 3rd offense. Is it possible that with a new OC, he could be a very viable sleeper next year? Should I keep him or Chris Henry (Cin)?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:18 AM)

Very, very unlikely, especially after the all the injuries. The Lions will have a new RB next year. I'd hang onto Henry and see if Chad Johnson departs.

steve tx

if chipper stays healthy all year i dont think there is a much better option at 3rd

Nate Ravitz

  (11:19 AM)

He'd have to play all 162 games to have any chance at equaling Wright or A-Rod's value. Actually, no. He'd have to play about 175 games.

Jon (Phoenix, AZ)

I have been offered Manu Ginobli for Stephen Jackson. I like having Jackson because he can play F/G in my league but I am seriously thinking about accepting. What should I do?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:19 AM)

Ginobili is a much better player.

Cole (Monroe, LA)

Do you think Tom Brady will have another year like this one?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:20 AM)

No, but if Moss comes back I think he'll throw about 40 TD passes.

Mark (Kearny, NJ)

Will Earnest Graham be Tampa's #1 back next year? I heard he has 1 year left on his contract and he wants an extension this offseason. I am asking because I am in a keeper league with an auction, and I might have the option of trading him for auction dollars. I already have LT, Gore, and Wayne to keep.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:21 AM)

Whether he comes back or not, I think he'll be overvalued in 2008, and I'd sell while his value is at its peak.

Nick (Manhattan)

Following up and adding onto Steve from Tx's comment- based on where he is drafted, Chipper may be the best option at 3rd if he plays 162.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:22 AM)

Based on where he'll be drafted, sure. Then again, he hasn't played even 140 games since 2003, and he's almost 36.

Timmy (Omaha)

Andruw Jones- resurgence in LA? .265 40-100?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:22 AM)

That's the best-case scenario.

Ben (Michigan)

When is the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit going to come out?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:22 AM)

On or about February 1.

Ryan (PA)

Hey Nate, my Dynasty baseball draft is coming up. These guys are all available and I have the first pick. Which one do I go with? I do have Alex Gordon already but could use Longoria at DH if needed. These guys are all available: Longoria, Bruce, Buccholz, Maybin, McCuthcen and Rasmus. Thanks

Nate Ravitz

  (11:23 AM)

I would probably take Jay Bruce. I like his short-term upside almost as much as Longoria and his long-term upside quite a bit better.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

plain and simple: if you were Berry, who would be in your top 5 baseball love/hate for 2008?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:24 AM)

not sure I can give you 5, but my loves would include Kemp, Kendrick and Iwamura, and my hates would include Chris B. Young, Kazmir and Josh Fields.

Mark (Kearny, NJ)

Is Matt Holliday the definitive #1 OF? More importantly, where would you rank him overall? Worthy of a mid-first round pick?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:25 AM)

He's the top OF by a hair over Crawford and Ichiro. I have all three of those guys in the 5-10 range.

Jay Soderberg (Bristol)

Nate- I miss you so much now that we don't do a podcast everyday. What will the future podcasting schedule be like? As a producer, I should know that- but as we all know- I'm a crappy producer.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:26 AM)

Laughing.

Big Joe (Trenton, NJ)

Nate. If Chase Utley is available with the 3rd or 4th pick in the 1st round do you think I am nuts for taking him? That kind of production out of a 2B is simply amazing!

Nate Ravitz

  (11:27 AM)

You're not nuts at all. He's probably 5 or 6 for me.

Nick (Manhattan)

Kelly Johnson- step forward, back or to the side this year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:27 AM)

To the side, but it might look like a step forward because he should play a bit more.

Brian (Michigan)

If there was an 8-team playoff, would Michigan be in it?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:28 AM)

Not even close. I can't be that homerish. Although the bowl game showed how good they could be with Henne/Hart healthy and proper motivation.

Jay Soderberg (Bristol)

Seriously Nate, what will the future podcast schedule be like?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:28 AM)

We're going to go weekly in about a week or 2 and pick up a daily schedule in mid March.

Brick (Brooklyn)

What do you hate most about Chris B Young?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:30 AM)

The problem with Young is everyone knows he's a 30-30 guy, but if you asked most people to guess his Runs and RBI last year, they'd probably say 100 runs and 85 RBI. Well, his actual numbers were 85 and 68 to go with a terrible BA. He's a very good fantasy player, but also certain to be a poor value for where you'll have to take him.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

Ichiro follow up: 5-10 overall or 5-10 outfielder? Also, Sizemore or Beltran?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:31 AM)

5-10 overall, although at the back end of that. People don't properly value his AVG. Only A-Rod and Mags were more valuable in fantasy last year.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:32 AM)

Sorry, that was supposed to say, only A-Rod and Mags were more valuable in the AL. But Mags and Holliday were the only OFs more valuable.

Nick (Manhattan)

So Kemp is like a late 3rd or 4th rounder? Those are really solid numbers.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:33 AM)

I don't think you'll need to take him anywhere near that high. He's probably a guy you can get in Round 8 and get third-round production from.

Michael (Portland, ME)

Jason Bay: is it him or is the Pirates really bad?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:33 AM)

I personally think it was his knee, and he'll see a partial bounce back this year.

John (Hamilton, Ontario, Canada)

I know it is early Nate but who would you keep in a four keeper league where we start 1QB 2RB 2WR and 1RB/WR flex. My choices are Palmer, Barber, Jacobs, Turner, White, Fitz, Andre and Calvin

Nate Ravitz

  (11:34 AM)

I'd keep Barber, White, Fitz and Jacobs.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Stephen Drew. He has to improve on that .238-12-60, right? 16 team man's league, does he start?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:34 AM)

Yes, and he's definitely a starter in that size league. Big sleeper this year.

Joe (Whitefish, MT)

Hey Nate, I finished 17 out of 18 in a 5 player keeper league, H2H 5x5 (no keeper restrictions except one hitter and pitcher at least), so I could definitely use your help. I have: Webb, Kazmir, Wang, Andruw Jones, Joba, Billingsley, Hughes, and Beltre. I'm thinking the first five guys.. I know its rough sailing but any suggestions?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:34 AM)

I'd keep any of the three you left out over Joba.

Tyler (Nashville)

True or false: Ace pitchers are the most valuable commodity in fantasy baseball. They're taken comparatively late only because of their unpredictability and injury risk.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:36 AM)

False. Your premise (that pitchers slip because of unpredictability and injury risk) is correct, but it's very difficult for a pitcher to have as much value as the top 5-10 hitters, partly because even a guy like Santana helps in only 4 categories.

Zac (UT)

Do you think that Lendale White could be relegated to goal line and short yardage carries only next year? I know he had a 1000 yards, but he is absolutely not a big play threat. Kind of like Bettis was. Do you think Chris Henry will play a bigger role in the offense next year? Dynasty League.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:37 AM)

No, I don't think he will be. Big-play threats are great, but not inherently better than guys who consistently churn out 3-6 yards.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Do you see considerably less questions in each chat now that we are between fantasy seasons(who really counts basketball and hockey anyway?)?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:38 AM)

Fewer questions, but less of the boring "who do I start" ones. I'm enjoying this chat.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Tell Joe to keep Billingsly!!! 17 wins, 3.00 ERA, and 200 K's are a-coming this year!!!

Nate Ravitz

  (11:38 AM)

That's a tad optimistic, but I really like him too.

Matt (DC)

Nate, Auction Keeper league question. We've got an expansion draft and get to protect three players. I'm already protecting Brandon Phillips ($2) and David Wright ($31), but I can't decide on my third guy. Grady Sizemore ($23) or Justin Morneau ($17)? Thanks for the help.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:39 AM)

Tough call between those two. I'd probably go with Sizemore.

Paul T. (Cincinnati)

Follow-up to Tyler's question - if it's a cumulative points league (not roto, and not H2H where you win categories each week), then his statement is true, correct?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:40 AM)

Probably, but it depends on the cats.

Rico(Melbourne)Keeper League

Football keeper league: Addai, Brady, AP (Minn) keep one Baseball keeper league: A-Rod, Utley, Hanley, V-Mart keep three. Tough choices

Nate Ravitz

  (11:40 AM)

Peterson for football, and A-Rod, Utley and Hanley for baseball.

Nick (St. Johns, MI)

Which players do you see breaking through next year in fantasy football?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:42 AM)

Cutler, DeAngelo Williams, Calvin Johnson.

Mark (Kearny, NJ)

Forget wins, because SF stinks. But can Franchise Lincecum post 200Ks, sub 3.00 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP this year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:43 AM)

That seems too optimistic to me, though certainly possible. I think the ERA will be closer to 3.50

Rob (Grand Rapids, MI)

Which 5 would you keep? Sizemore, Vlad, Mauer, Rollins, Uggla, Webb, Verlander, Byrnes, Figgins or Teixera

Nate Ravitz

  (11:43 AM)

Rollins, Sizemore, Webb, Figgins and Vlad

David (Chicago)

What kind of numbers do you see Mark Teahen putting up this year? Will he rebound to his second half 2006 numbers or is he going to be a decent OBP, decent average type of player?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:44 AM)

He'll rebound, but not to second-half of 2006. .290-15-80

chad (TN)

What do see for Jake Delhome next year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:44 AM)

Assuming he's back in Carolina, he's a decent sleeper to be drafted in the 14-18 range among QBs and deliver top 10 numbers.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Jim Hoey- baltimore closer this year? Next great young closer?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:45 AM)

Possibly because they have no one else, although they don't seem to be leaning that way. And I don't think he'll be "great" regardless.

Rich (St. Petersburg)

Ciould you see Grossman heading to Miami next year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:45 AM)

No.

Paul T. (Cincinnati)

I traded away Utley last season as a deadline deal to make a run at the title and I came up short - which 2B could I target as a surprise/buy low candidate that will help ease the pain this year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:46 AM)

For sleeper second basemen, I like Jose Lopez and Orlando Hudson.

Dean (Vermont)

Deep AL-only league question: after the top 3b are gone, who's looking better: Josh Fields or Mike Lamb? Is Lamb going to play or will the lamb lie down?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:47 AM)

Lamb will play, but even I will concede that Fields has much higher upside. I'd go with Fields in a deep AL-only.

Mark (Kearny, NJ)

Why does Adam Dunn continuously get no love? What's not to like about 100+ runs and RBIs, 40+ HRs, and 10 SBs? I can live with his .250 BA with those other numbers. I say Dunn is a late second to early third rounder. Agreed?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:50 AM)

People hate on him because of his BA, but he also appears to have peaked as a 40-homer guy, and not the 50-homer guy we thought he might be. I'd say fourth round.

Ryan (PA)

Nate I need your opinion. In my dynasty baseball league we can keep our entire starting lineup (17 players) with no limits or values on players. Mid season last year I got torn apart for giving my 1st round pick for this season for Matt Kemp. After 12 teams keep 17 players didnt I get a great deal? In my eyes I see it like I traded a 17-18 round pick for a player with great upside. Am I setting the right value for future picks or am I missing something? I would gladly trade picks to nake 17 players I keep better. No?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:52 AM)

Assuming any player can be kept, that means that (roughly speaking) the top 204 guys are off the board by the time you pick. So yes, I think you did extremely well.

Bon Jovi (New Jersey)

Please rank for 2008: Kinsler, Uggla, KJ, Hill. Thanks. Also, can we expect Khalil Greene to hit that many HRs again?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:53 AM)

Kinsler, Uggla, Hill, KJ. And I don't see Greene hitting 27 again.

jason (manchester)

Football Keeper would you keep Brandon Jacobs or Reggie Wayne in a normal point league where you start 2 WR, 2 RB and 1WR/RB?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:53 AM)

Wayne.

Mike (San Diego)

Where do you rank Salty among catchers for next year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:54 AM)

Not in the top 15. Barely top 20. I think he spends 2-3 months in the minors.

Karl (Chicago)

What do you hate about Fields?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:55 AM)

It's not that I hate him, I just don't think the reality will match the hype. He overperformed last year, making some people think he's a 40-homer guy if he plays the full season. He's not.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Thoughts on Curt Schilling? 12 wins? 150Ks? 3.50?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:55 AM)

Sounds about right.

Pierre (Youngstown, Ohio)

Are you drinking the Jay Bruce kool-aid? I'm predicting NL ROY with great fantasy numbers even though he'll be a rookie. How early should I draft him so that nobody jumps ahead of me in a mixed league?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:55 AM)

I'm drinking it, but I still have a healthy skepticism on how much he'll play this year under Baker.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:56 AM)

I have to check out guys. Thanks for the great questions. Glad that baseball is almost back. There's another chat at 3:00 PM today, so check that out.