Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:00 AM)

Good morning everyone! We're ready to roll, and I'm sure you've got plenty of questions ... Let's get right to 'em!

Justin (Indiana)

somebody wake up cockcroft

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:00 AM)

Don't worry, Justin, my coffee's handling that.

Greg (Syracuse)

Tristan, gearing up for baseball. Would you take Sizemore over B.J. Upton in the second round? Why is Soriano being rated so low? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

I would. I'm as big an Upton fan as anyone, actually preferring him to Brandon Phillips at second base, but to me, he's not QUITE a second-rounder, or at least not one ahead of Grady Sizemore. Sizemore has a little more experience, a loaded lineup and he's a little stronger bet, I'd say, for 25/25 numbers at least. As for Alfonso Soriano, I think people do genuinely worry about the drop in steals last year, and at age 32, I doubt he'll ever be a 40-steal guy again. That said, he's a solid second-round type himself.

Evan (New York)

Keeper Question for '08: Mauer or Tulowitski?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Troy Tulowitzki. I'm actually not nearly the Tulo fan that a lot of other people are, expecting the inevitable step backwards in 2008, but I think we need to see a healthy, power-filled season from Joe Mauer before we put him up there with a solid shortstop at Coors. Tulo's possible decline is not something I'm terming significant by any means, and shortstop is actually not as deep as you'd think once you get past the top guys.

jacoby ellsbury, boston

380 SLG last year in AAA, no way do i hit 10 homeruns. you're off your rocker

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Well, one thing's for sure, I know you're not actually Jacoby Ellsbury, you must be a holdover from my chat last week, when Ellsbury was a hot topic! And you know, maybe you're right, and what you're doing is serving as very valuable caution to owners from overrating the guy. I do like Ellsbury a great deal, but it needs to be said, while I do believe he cracks double-digit homers -- and mind you, I say that ONLY if he's a regular or near-regular -- it's the steals, batting average and runs scored (if hitting high in the lineup) you're paying for.

Mike(Charlotte)

Hey Tristan, in my dynasty I can keep 2 of these three, which ones? Greinke, Guthrie or Loewen.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Well, that's a tough one to accurately answer without more details, or without a better sense of Adam Loewen's prognosis. From the information I have today, though, and thinking dynasty-like, I would throw Jeremy Guthrie back in the pool. Loewen is supposed to be fully healthy for Opening Day, and you know, if he is, I see no reason he can't at least match Guthrie's output. And what he brings to the table that Guthrie doesn't is upside, as well as nice long-term value.

Craig (MPLS)

Isnt it a better idea to wait and take Kendrick, Kinsler, or Weeks later instead of risking a regression from Upton or Phillips? Also, does Hermida contribute enough to be a 3-5 OF in mixed leagues?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

If you can, Craig, but I know a lot of people who aren't going to let you wait all that much longer on an Ian Kinsler or Howie Kendrick. Rickie Weeks? Maybe, but isn't there at least as much risk he's hurt or inconsistent? He's no batting-average option, that's for sure. And I'm not about to say "go grab Brandon Phillips or B.J. Upton" nice-'n'-early, I just think they're going to be fairly high, probably third rounders off the top of my head. Maybe fourth. I doubt either really regresses much, they're in or nearing their primes, after all. As for Jeremy Hermida, absolutely, though as a No. 3? Probably not. Think more No. 5, MAYBE No. 4, but I see a lot I like in Hermida. Solid hitting skills, extraordinary finish to 2007, and that Marlins lineup isn't the throwaway a lot of people might be thinking it is.

Tom (NY)

Tristan,Trying to get this question answered for the past few chats. Your thoughts on a new strategy fro5x5 mixed roto,12 team. Rds 1-8 pick stup SPs and hitters that give youavg, sb and runs. Rds 9-12 grad 4 closers. You end up trying to win 8/10 categories and get 98 pts. We start 6 sp,4 rp, and 14 hitters. Thanks and keep up the good work.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Tom, I understand the strategy, and you know, I don't think it's completely insane this season, not with baseball shifting back towards being a bit more pitching-oriented than it was, oh, say, a half-decade ago. Still, there's that old saying that ANY pitcher is a risk to get hurt, and certainly more often than a hitter might. So, what you do with your strategy is put yourself at greater risk for a team collapse. After all, where are more of the midseason values found as pickups? That's right, on the pitching side. Not to totally knock your strategy, as I do admire creativity, but I can say from experience that I've built teams around big-time pitching, speed, batting average and runs, and really struggled to remain competitive. Why? It's because those categories are the ones that can vary the most. Big-time power, that's the kind of thing that usually remains fairly consistent in a player.

Adam (NY,NY)

I am seeing Bedard ranked much lower than expected in alot of early rankings. I am assuming this is mostly due to injury risk, is there something else I am missing? Would you rather keep him or Webb?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

I assume it's because we haven't seen how healthy he is in the spring camps. Check back in a month, maybe everyone else will be hopping on the bandwagon. Oh, perhaps the higher win potential in Arizona has something to do with it, too. I don't think you can go wrong with either,but I'm going with Erik Bedard. Just who I want of the two.

David (FLA)

What percentage chance do you think the Chargers have of beating the Pats?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

I dunno, 15 percent, and that's if I assume every team gets 10 percent automatically because of the "any given Sunday" thing? I like what the Chargers have done this postseason, but that's a tall task. Too tall, if you ask me.

Eric(DC)

As a whole is there much meat behind the sophmore slump theory?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Well, Eric, sadly, it'd take many multiples of the amount of time I have to answer your question to do the statistical research, which I love to do to either prove or debunk these kinds of things. I'll note that down for later, but I always suggest to people, use such statements as guidelines, "tiebreakers" in terms of comparably valued players, if you will, but don't use them as a draft crutch. Every player is different and in a different situation. You'd be silly to just say, "I'm tossing five extra bucks the way of any 27-year-old player," wouldn't you? Same kind of thing.

dave (boston)

Isn't BJ Upton a CF?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Yes, but he has second-base eligibility in a good share of leagues, because he played more than 20 games there in 2007.

Chaz (WV)

hey Tristan, was wondering if you have heard what Joba's role is going to be this year for the Yanks? Also, do you see Gorzelanny and Snell continuing to improve on their numbers? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

I follow the Yankees very closely, and thanks to Hank Steinbrenner's complete willingness to talk to the media every 10 minutes this winter, I bet everyone has been following 'em nicely as well. From what I understand, Joba Chamberlain enters the spring as a starter, and I think he only gets bumped back to the bullpen if the team feels it has five strong starters WITHOUT him. What I'm doing right now is forecasting around 140-150 innings for Joba in 2008, because that's what I'd call his safest projection. That means a little of both roles, which I sure could see happen. Don't go TOO nuts over the guy. As for those Pirates, I'm a big Ian Snell fan. Tom Gorzelanny, what we saw last year, I think that's about what he is for 2008, but Snell has room for growth. I'd throw the extra buck his way. Shame that team doesn't win more.

Joba (NY)

Am I the most asked about player? I think I even annoy myself, Yankees fans need to calm down.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

People actually pester me more about Jacoby Ellsbury, at least so far in 2008! But you're right, Joba Chamberlain is getting a lot of buzz, and that's dangerous in fantasy. Again, don't go nuts, folks. There's always a limit to draft-day prices.

Joe(SF)

Fields, Longoria or Gordon just for '08?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Wow could that swing any of the three ways, and spring training will almost certainly be my deciding factor. Asked today? I want Alex Gordon. I just have this feeling he takes enough of a step forward that he beats out the other two. It's that modest steals contribution, folks.

Terry (nyc)

who do u see as a better fantasy of option this year, rasmus or ellsbury?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

I don't know what all the excitement is over Colby Rasmus, frankly. Not that I dislike the guy, not by any means, but he's 21 and was in Double-A ball last year. I'd be shocked if he makes the team and remains consistent the entire year. I bet he's streaky, his batting average suffers and his best asset is the power, but given the choice, I'd like the little safety net Jacoby Ellsbury provides in batting average and steals.

Jack Bauer (LA, CA)

Will I ever come back? How would you rank Tejada, M Young, Furcal, OCab, Renteria, and Lugo at SS?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

I miss you Jack! Can't YOU figure out how to end this writers' strike? C'mon man! As for the shortstops, hmmm, Miguel Tejada, Michael Young, Rafael Furcal (those three so very close), Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Julio Lugo, Lugo easily the last.

Del (Chicago)

What about the 26 steals Fields had in '06 to go along with Ozzie Guillen's green light?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

For all of Guillen's "green light," Josh Fields stole one base in 100 games as a rookie. ONE! So I'd call the 28 steals in the minors the outlier. He's a candidate to barely nip the double digits, I suppose, though I'd project more like 6-7, and the batting average risk more than eliminates that appeal.

Jack (SD)

Tristan, look into your crystal ball and guess Jay Bruce's 2008 stats.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

Well, again, spring training decides a lot, because he has a shot at winning the center field role. Today, I'm forecasting he begins in the minors, but gets called up to play a Hunter Pence/Ryan Braun share of games, let's say like 90-100. If that's the case, I'd say he could bat, oh, .290, and maybe 15 or so homers? I'd probably treat him very much like I might have Braun or Pence a year ago, and I'm saying ENTERING THE DRAFT, not that you price him like you expect those guys' actual stats.

Frank (Boston)

Is this the year Scott Kazmir puts a full season together? He's one of those guys ranked in the 10-15 range amongst SP's, but in reality I think you'll either get a top 5 or top 20 starter, with the ranking based on upside/risk. He was a top 5 mixed league starter in the 1st half of 2006 and 2nd half of 2007, so he really just needs to put it together for a full season. Those concerned about W's should realize he had 10 W's at the All-star break in 2006 before arm troubles shelfed him and 13 W's last season on a bad team that is improving. Plus the AL east factor is minimized by his career success against the the Sox and Yanks. Shandler forecasts $28 value, 15-10, mid 3 ERA, 240 K's, right there with Bedard and Haren. What do you think?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

A little secret for you, Frank: I love Scott Kazmir this year. Really. Top-10 starter value, I'd say, is pretty certain in my mind. Only thing keeping him from Erik Bedard or Dan Haren value, I'd say, is the walks, but this kid can dominate enough to get the wins he needs, regardless of team.

brian (nd)

for fantasy football next year I would like to implement a waiver wire list. How do they usually work?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Usually what happens is that each week, the waiver order gets run based on reverse order of the standings (ties broken by fewer year-to-date points). Then as each team is awarded a claim, it's bumped to the bottom of the list. The following week, the list refreshes. That's the traditional system.

Joe(SF)

Did Kaz Matsui improve as a hitter last season or was most of his production pretty much Coors related?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Improve? I really doubt it. The Astros would be smart to platoon him with a guy who hits lefties, actually, but I doubt they will. Assume Matsui's value drops, perhaps a noticeable amount at that. I'm not a fan.

steve (jersey)

hey tristan , do you see any similarities between LaPorta and Braun, im not sayin Laporta comes up and does what Braun did but do you think he could do some damage this year for the brewers if given a shot?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

Matt LaPorta is a name fantasy owners need to familiarize themselves with, but with Ryan Braun now shifting to left field, I feel like LaPorta is pretty locked into a full year in the minors, if only because that seemed like his eventual position. How the Brewers handle that in late 2008/2009, that'll be the interesting thing. I do believe LaPorta might not be far off what Braun is when he eventually arrives, though. Great hitter.

Chaz (WV)

Speaking of Ryan Braun ...wow...the kid can flat out hit! There's no way he can put up the same kind of numbers he did last night right? do you have a 2008 projection?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

Absolutely, Chaz. He's a great, great hitter, and I actually believe the shift to left field takes enough pressure off him on defense that he can focus now on the hitting, and remaining at that elite level. You know, I've been tweaking my projection for him for a couple weeks now, and he's the hardest of pretty much anyone on my entire list. No matter what system I use, I seem to always get around a .300 batting average and up to 40 homers, 110 RBIs and 15 steals. So you know, I probably have to go with that. When the numbers keep pointing you in that direction, eventually you can't ignore them. Second-round value, it's really true, probably right in the ballpark of where teammate Prince Fielder goes.

Ryan Braun (Milwaukee)

Follow up to Steve's question...does that mean I may be in CF? Would I become the #1 CFer in fantasy for those who play specific OF positions?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Nah, that'd be awful for Milwaukee's defense, this year OR long term. It's a corner outfield spot for Mr. Braun. Mike Cameron is the center fielder, and you know, I do really like him as a fit for that team. It helps the pitching staff, and I think he might surprise as a fantasy value in that park.

Chris (Orlando)

Hey Chaz, Ryan Braun put up numbers last night? Hmm... you must know something I don't.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

Considering the year Braun did, he might HAVE still been putting up numbers last night. I'm sure Chaz meant last YEAR, though. We'll forgive.

Joe: (Boston)

I am allowed to keep one> Ian Kennedy or Clay Buccholt

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

Clay Buchholz simply has the higher ceiling. I can't disagree with the scouts on this one.

johnny ( ca)

how good can lincecum be this year, he seems to have a rubber arm and i love the k rate, do you think 12 wins, 200 ks and say a 3.4 era is too much to ask?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

I do not think that's an unfair projection at all. Mine will likely be right in the ballpark. The one thing I can say as a knock on Tim Lincecum is that I think that's a terrible team, with a weak offense and below-average relief pitching. In other words, wins is going to be a problem. Just look at Matt Cain's 2007.

Kent(FL)

I wonder if the new Nationals Park is a bandbox?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

It's something people need to track, but for the record, Year 1 of new parks usually have more extreme leanings than Years 2 and beyond. In other words, let's not make any concrete conclusions from only one year of data. From what I understand, the new park is supposed to be pretty neutral, though the fact remains that anything is better for the team's hitters than RFK. In other words, don't dismiss a guy like Austin Kearns forgetting the ballpark switch.

Steve (MA via E. Hartford)

Is there any way to choose between Bedard and Sabathia as a keeper other than using a dartboard?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

C.C. Sabathia's bump up in workload, and the postseason meltdown as a result, is a perfectly fine tiebreaker. It makes me say Erik Bedard by a nose.

Joe(SF)

Lyon or Pena?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

They'll compete and be on an even level in the spring, but you know, Tony Pena deserves that job. Liver arm, higher upside, and he really earned it with what he did in 2007. Today, I am picking him, there's really no question about it.

Andy (VA)

Going back to Kazmir for a sec, Tristan. I'm trying to decide between keeping him or Cole Hamels. What would YOU do?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I would keep Scott Kazmir over Cole Hamels and it's really no significant knock on Hamels' talent. The thing that worries me slightly about him, though, and enough that I bump him a little back of Kazmir, is that he hasn't been able to be fully healthy for an entire season as a pro, and he calls a bandbox his home. There's your "tiebreaker."

Bill Belichek

Only 15%??? OK Cockcroft that will make its way onto the bulletin board..thanks for the motivation...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

Happy to help. But ... uh ... Bill? Wouldn't that mean the Chargers want it on their bulletin board? Unless I misread that, it was the CHARGERS' chances at a W.

Eric(FL)

Do the Dodgers really plan on platooning Pierre?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

I'd be shocked if a guy like Joe Torre, who loves that National League-style ball (and I'm sorry, he does, if you remember the Yankee championship teams), sits Juan Pierre all that much. And the shame in all that: I think Matt Kemp is the guy who suffers as a result. As things stand today, I have a terrible feeling Pierre only sits against tough lefties, and gets like 500 ABs.

t (ny)

tristan, do you think cano has a chance at hitting third this year, i know alot of talk was about that late last year goin into this and if that is the case wouldnt he become the number 2 second baseman in fantasy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Actually, I don't think it's really going to matter whether Robinson Cano hits third, fifth, sixth, whatever, he's going to get his runs and RBIs in that deep lineup. Sure, hitting third might result in what, $2-4 extra value, but isn't the kid great already? Besides, I still believe No. 3 is Bobby Abreu's spot, because he's so good at getting on base for A-Rod to knock home.

rob (ny)

tristan, i know this is a bit of a reach as a question but my dynasty team really lacks a 3b and i got chase headley on my farm, any chance he helps me out this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Word out of San Diego today is that Chase Headley is taking fly balls in the outfield, and by the way, who's atop the team's depth chart in left field? That's right, it's Scott Hairston. Now granted, I like Hairston as a deep NL-only sleeper, but I think it's a sign the Padres believe Headley is ready to contribute. Expect him to get in a half-season's worth of PT.

Steve (MA via E. Hartford)

But you gave the Chargers a chance to win...how disrespectful to the Patriots!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Anyone can win any game, Steve. I'll grant 10 percent right off the bat. I mean really, how many people called for a San Diego win at Indy? I'm sure it wasn't many...

Hank(NY)

Hamels will probably get 5 more WINS then Kazmir this season though.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

Oh? I don't know about that ... Elite talent wins ballgames. ELITE talent.

Doug (NJ)

Hi Tristan, please help!!! Keeper question here, numbers are round values. Would you keep Johan with a 1st or Bedard with 5 and free up your #1? This is a H2H league and my other keepers are Holliday 3, Hanley 8, Atkins 12 & Phillips 16. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Erik Bedard with the five, since he's not worlds apart from Johan Santana in value anymore. And by the way, that'd give you a ridiculously good keeper corps.

Steve (MA via E. Hartford)

Oh I know...I'm a Giants fan anyway and they weren't supposed to be playing this week.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Exactly.

Mike (Boston)

I don't understand. From a non-fantasy standpoint, aren't Reggie Willits and Jacoby Ellsburry the same guy? Could we assume Willits last year number will be about what we should expect from Ellsbury this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

Oh no way. They're nowhere close to similar prospects. Now granted, most people know that, so the question might seem obvious, but I chose it for a reason. It's that I think Reggie Willits has a bit of sleeper potential, because not only is he speedy, but he gets on base at a very respectable clip for a speedster. I love that kind of combination, and really think it's a shame he won't play that regularly in L.A., probably. Keep his name tucked away if he gets a trade somewhere he'll get a shot to play.

Grant (NY)

Gotta keeper question.. league where we lose the round where we drafted the guy. Keep Hafner (1st), Markakis (10th), or Gallardo (17th)? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

There's no doubt it's not Travis Hafner. Bottom line, he's not first round worthy. The other two, that's a very tough call, I suppose it makes a difference if it's this year alone, or if you can then carry them over additional years. You know, in a close call, I usually go the lower pick. Yovani Gallardo has huge upside, and that's no price tag at all. Take him.

Eric(SF)

Speaking of Angels in the Outfield what happens to Rivera?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

He suffers as well, sadly. Perhaps he'll get some DH time, especially if Garret Anderson isn't up to the task of playing a full season. Man, the Angels seem to create AL-only sleepers, if only by signing clear starters and burying respectable talents on the bench, don't they?

Dan (Baltimore)

Thoughts on three keepers between Rollins, BJ Upton, Delmon Young, Berkman, Webb, Oswalt, and Lackey?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I'd say Jimmy Rollins, B.J. Upton and Brandon Webb give you the best chance at winning this season, and that's what this game is all about, isn't it?

Matt (Atlanta)

In a 5x5 league with OPS instead of AVG, which 3 players would you keep out of J. Santana, C. Utley, P. Fielder and Ichiro?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Well, there's no doubt I'm letting Ichiro go, then. No huge knock on the guy, I just think he's a clear fourth here.

Luke(DC)

Over/Under- 140 rbi for Miggy Cabrera?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Under. But not by as much as you'd think.

michelle(manhattan)

the force is strong with u tristan, so tell me , who is a later rd pick who can give me say 30 hr this year and not alot of people see him coming?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Off the top of my head, how about Josh Fields, Khalil Greene or Luke Scott? Granted, maybe the batting average is lacking with each if 30 homers happens, but I see some nice power upside in each. And again, off the top of my head.

Mike (Albany, NY)

Tristan: Keep 4. Haren, Lincecum, Gallardo, Verlander, Dice-K, McGowan, Sheilds. Thanks for the Help!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum are must-keeps. And, you know, Yovani Gallardo has to be as well, especially if you can go long-term. For 2008? I think I gotta go Justin Verlander there. He's an ace already, and that team is so strong on offense.

Ryan (PA)

Hey Tristan, if you dont mind could i get your opinion on my Dynasty Team. It is a 13 team league and we get to keep our starting lineup every year. I am clearly building for the future. You think this team can compete com '09 and beyond or am I taking to big of a risk? C-Johjima, 1B-Teix, 2B-Utley, SS-Tulo, 3B-Gordon, OF-Delmon, Kemp, Rios, Bruce DH-Kendrick SP-Sabathia, Verlander, Hughes, Cain, Lincecum. Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Compete for 2009? I dunno, Ryan, I think you might be able to compete THIS year, if the cards fall right and you supplement this team with strong draft picks. Nice, nice core you've got there.

Mike(NY)

Are you an Ankiel believer?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

I believe in the power, but there is a serious downside here. I really think he's going to quickly degenerate into an ideal platoon mate, a guy susceptible to breaking pitches, etc. Hmmm ... He's Pedro Cerrano! Yeah, that's the ticket. I bet he hits under .250, hits 25-30 homers. That exciting to you? If so, go for it, but I'm not that wild about such types.

Shawn (MN)

Seems like everyone is really high on Haren this year moving to the NL. I'm already keeping Vlad, Wright, & Utley and have to choose 2 more out of Byrnes, Hart, & Haren. Who would you take, I'm usually against keeping pitchers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Well, if your top three hitters are that strong, I don't think it's a bad idea to make the fourth Dan Haren, locking in a top-10 arm to get yourself started. All three are keeper-worthy, but I love Haren back in the National League. He dominated in interleague play.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Don't forget, we'll be back again in the afternoon to chat with you, so see you then!