Keith Law

  (1:02 PM)

OK, folks, one hour to talk about the Upton brothers ... or something like that.

Jackson (wolcott,CT)

Do you think Justin will be moved back to SS any time soon?

Keith Law

  (1:02 PM)

No chance.

Jason (Milwaukee)

Granted he has lost rookie eligibilty, but is J. Up a better prospect than Jay Bruce?

Keith Law

  (1:03 PM)

Yes. If he'd had ten fewer ABs, he'd be the #1 prospect in baseball, bar none.

George, Scottsdale, AZ

Just to clarify - Justin is the Diamondbacks right fielder. Center belongs to another young star - Chris Young. I certainly agree with justin's greater upside.

Keith Law

  (1:05 PM)

I should have been clearer about what I meant. One, Justin's certainly capable of playing centerfield, to the point where that's become his natural position. (I understand he was a SS all through HS, but that was never his future.) So to grade him properly, I wanted to consider him at the hardest position he could reasonably play in the majors. Two, as much as I do like Chris Young as a prospect and believe that his higher walk rates from the minors will show up in the majors, we can't ignore the sub-.300 OBP. Arizona's front office is not going to leave Young out there to make 450+ outs every year if he doesn't improve, and they have a fantastic option sitting there in RF if they have to make such a move.

Grant (Atl GA)

I agree with the pick, and your affinity for Justin Upton is well documented, but if you had to pick one for just this upcoming season it would be _____?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

Strictly for 2008, I'd have to take BJ.

John (Mahwah, NJ)

I think B.J. is better because of his versitilty to play every position. He has always been a great hitter and adds a boost of speed everywhere he plays. Justin is not the same caliber player as he is

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

BJ can't play anywhere but the outfield and maybe 1b. He's a butcher at ss, 2b, or 3b. So he doesn't bring that versatility after all.

Nick (Allston, MA)

Shouldn't a proper valuation take into account both upside AND likelihood of reaching it? And since BJ's already performed at a star level in the bigs doesn't that shift the argument in his favor?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

Has he performed at a star level? That seems like an exaggeration to me. I'm not denigrating what he did - a .380+ OBP at age 23? thank you, sir, may I have another? - but he's still got a good bit of development ahead of him, offensively and defensively.

Bob(Pittsburgh)

Could BJ have been the same player he is today if he would have been taken by the Pirates?

Keith Law

  (1:09 PM)

That's a very good question. My instinct is to say no. The Pirates have been a horrendous developmental organization for the past six or seven years; they've even mishandled Walker and McCutchen, the two best hitting prospects they've had in that timeframe. Littlefield and Graham probably would have tried to make him a catcher or something.

ben (boston)

If Obama can win in Idaho, we can run a successful campaign for you to be the Pirates GM.....Is not drafting B.J. the biggest mistake Littlefield made?

Keith Law

  (1:11 PM)

I've been told by a few people - not by Littlefield himself, though - that Kevin McClatchy vetoed the Upton selection and forced Littlefield and his scouting staff to take a college player instead. I've also heard separately that Ed Creech, the new scouting director at the time, wanted a college player who'd get to the majors faster to make him look better. I wasn't in the room, so this is rather speculative, but my point is that I'm not going to pin this one all on Dave.

Beasley (Shreveport, LA)

Isn't this like the argument "Ginger vs. Mary Ann" or "Steak grilled with charcoal vs. steak grilled with gas" or "sex in the morning vs. sex at night"? I'll take either one anytime I can get them. Prefer Justin because of upside argument K-Law makes and because of younger age, which should translate to longer career.

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

I agree. I'd take either one. This is a very lightweight topic.

Clint (slc)

Does the Rays signing of Floyd and Gnomes mean they want to give BJ a shot at 2B? They now have 2 superior outfielders (crawford and Baldelli)1 solid in BJ and 2 borderline in Gnomes and Floyd. I know there is alot of health risks there but still...

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

Gomes and Floyd are going to platoon - I don't think you'll ever see BJ in the infield again, nor should you.

Odie (Portland)

No question the Upton brothers are good. I just don't see a point in having this debate, because Justin is still so green. Sure, he's got the scouting reports, and he has the minor league track record, but all that major league success that's being thrown his way is pure conjecture. That being said I'd gladly take either of them. How would you rate the Upton boys compared to some other scary good power/speed guys out there? Matt Kemp, Chris Young, Nick Markakis?

Keith Law

  (1:15 PM)

Kemp is the only one of those three guys who could hang with the Uptons on tools. I think I'd still rank him third, just because I think the Uptons show a better feel for the game (Kemp was a basketball star in HS, so he's developing a bit late as a baseball player), but I think all three will be superstars.

Jim (NJ)

Do you see any resemblance in BJ's follow through to Arod's? He looks like a skinny Alex to me. Whats his power ceiling? 40 hr's? Thanks

Keith Law

  (1:16 PM)

A-Rod gets a little better extension and better loft as well. But the similarity is that both guys are so strong from the elbows out to the wrists that they can extend their arms and take balls away or down and drive them when most players can't.

Cioch (Niagara Falls, NY)

I apologize for my figures, as I was looking at total career. However, last year still shows a noticable decline: .320/.396/.545 in the first half, .285/.379/.482 in the second.

Keith Law

  (1:17 PM)

Cioch is referring to BJ's first half/second half splits from '07. I don't see that as that big of a decline - a drop of 17 points of OBP is probably within the range of random variation.

Matthew ( Franklin, Ma)

Will Justin Upton be as good as Delmon Young?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

Much better.

Irvin (Sharlton, VA)

Keith: on the 20-80 scouting scale, where would you rank Justin's bat? Am I out of line thinking he should be a perenial .300/40/20 player?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

Future grade? Probably a 60. Future power is 70 though - I think he'll be more of a big power guy (40 HR) than a .320-.330 type of hitter.

Brett (WI)

Upton was scouted as a speed guy more than power guy. Do you think his power numbers were a bit inflated this year? Is it reasonable to expect a decline in power & strikeouts and an increase in OBP & SB?

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

I don't think that's accurate - he was a five-tool player in HS, and power is one of the tools. I remember reports from the time had the hit tool (ability to make contact/hit for average) as his best.

Jay (Hazleton, PA)

A.) Never in my life did I think there would be an hour-long chat dedicated to the Upton brothers. I think you could wrap this up before 1:25 if you really wanted to. B.) Who did the Pirates choose instead of BJ and where is he right now?

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

A) Tempted. B) Bryan Bullington. Blew out his arm (I am shocked, shocked), had had a few cups of coffee, is never going to stick in the majors.

Ross (CA)

If Justin remains in right field due to Young in CF, will the fact that BJ plays CF be taken into account that he will be more valuable to his team?

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

Yes. A player's offensive performance has to consider the position he plays - this is a core concept of VORP - and a CF has the chance to contribute more value on defense than a RF.

Jayson (NJ)

If BJ could just get out of Tampa on the roster of a better organization, the sky is the limit with him! Justin fits in well with The D'backs whom pridefully rolled thru last season with most of their players younger than 25 and unheard of. 5 tool players indeed, imagine them on the same team? The new non juiced bash brothers!

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

The Rays are going to be pretty good pretty soon. If Brignac and Jaso both pan out as prospects, they'll have a star-caliber player or prospect at every position except 2b by 2009, and they have an incredible arsenal of young arms.

Ryan (Boston, MA)

Can you clarify how BJ loses 3 years of development to Justin by being sent to the minors? Unless I'm mistaken, getting ABs in the minors is still development.

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

ABs in the majors, if you're ready to handle them, are much better development. You're facing better pitching - guys with better stuff and better feel.

Jeff (Tucson)

Since your talking "upside," which is a function of how good they "might" become, a younger player always has an advantage in that argument. Now, when the two players are playing at a similar level and they are a few years apart the younger player is clearly the choice, as generally, the closer a player gets to his prime (26-30) the less he can make those big jumps in performance. Now, if Pittsburg would have drafted him, or if TB wasn't as stubborn, BJ may be much more advanced. Sad story, how which organization a player starts out with can affect his entire career (see any young Philly pitcher, or anyone who begane their career on Montreal's concrete turf). Justin has been much luckier in that regard than his bro.

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

You have a valid point - ceteris paribus, I'd take the younger player if the question is upside. However, I do think that Justin is ahead of where BJ was at the same age, and that was my #1 reason for taking Justin.

mike az

klaw, I worry that cy will struggle at the begginging of the season trying to live up to last years 30 hrs. However i do believe as the season progresses and into the future his numbers with respect to walks and strike outs will resemble that of his minor league career

Keith Law

  (1:25 PM)

I wouldn't be upset to see C Young hit only 15 homers next year if it came with more walks and a lot more willingness to go the other way. Long-term, the power isn't going away, but he needs to show the ability to alter his approach based on pitch type & location, rather than just being pull-happy all the time.

Mark (Bangor, PA)

I know Franklin Gutierrez is older, but how would you compare him to these 2?

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

I'm not 100% sold on Gutierrez as an everyday player. Tools-wise, the Uptons are faster and would get much higher "hit" trades.

Jay (IA)

Jay Bruce over both these guys?

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

He'd be #3 behind both guys.

raymagnetic (Bronx, NY)

Are any of them signed with Scott Boras? I'm just wondering when the Yankees will be signing one of them to a 10 year contract.

Keith Law

  (1:27 PM)

I believe both are represented by Larry Reynolds (Harold's brother).

Bill

Any credit to BJ's better stats at the same age?

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

Just in the big leagues? That's a pretty small sample to work from.

Jack (Chicago)

Just for perspective, who is a good comparison to the brothers at a similar age, ie, what established major leaguer(s) was comparable as a prospect? Thanks

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

Ken Griffey Jr is the obvious one, just because he was an athletic CF who reached the big leagues at age 19. But Griffey's approach at the plate was ridiculously advanced for his age, better than either Upton brother's. There isn't an ideal comp among current ML CF's.

Greg (NYC)

How long until BJ ends up full-time in the OF? TB keeps him around 2B for _____ more games?

Keith Law

  (1:32 PM)

Zero.

Mike (Chicago)

With Carlos Quentin now gone in Arizona, will Justin Upton step up this year to be the full time starter with good numbers this year or will he be like the Quentin of last year who had so much hype about him being one of the upcoming star prospects?

Keith Law

  (1:33 PM)

I think you'll see some ups and downs from Justin this year, with good power production (20-25 HR), a healthy walk total, a lot of Ks and a so-so average. That would be a good output for a 20-year-old in the majors.

Sarah (Honolulu)

Do you believe justin upton will go through what they call a sophomore slump this year?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

I don't believe in the "sophomore slump." And no, I don't think Justin will take a step backward this year.

scott (boston)

Hi Keith- thanks for answering this, Crasnick was on the other day claiming 7 of 9 scouts all prefer Joba over Clay, I know you are a Clay guy, What do you think is the determining factor that puts him slightly ahead of Joba in your book? To me it is his secondary pitches which are already top of the rotation worhty. You?

Keith Law

  (1:35 PM)

I'd rank Joba ahead of Buchholz. Four pitch guy who can hold his velo for 100 pitches versus three-pitch guy who doesn't have the big fastball ... It's really, really close, but I'd take Joba.

Pork Chop (Chicago)

Does Rickie Weeks have a better year than both these guys?

Keith Law

  (1:36 PM)

I don't think he has the raw power to match BJ in 2008, but don't be surprised if Rickie has the better OBP this year.

Jared (SF, CA)

When Justin was drafted, a lot of folks believed that him going first overall was backwards and signaled a reverse trend. Do you disagree with Justin going as high as he did?

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

No, that made sense to me - you take the best overall talent at #1, and there wasn't anyone that year to match him. Even now, with hindsight, the only guys in the top 10 who would have been valid alternatives are Gordon and Tulowitzki, and I'd take Upton over either guy.

Cedric (Boston)

Keith - since the Upton question isn't really much of a debate due to how close it is, what do you think about the other heaters (besides the Clay vs Joba one you just answered)? I think Pujols vs A-Rod, Peavy vs Beckett, CC vs Santana. I believe you answered the Tulo vs Hanley one yesterday. Thanks, two chats in one week from you is getting me through the end of the work week...

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

I haven't read any of the others (I was on vacation), but I'd take A-Rod, Beckett, and Sabathia (because I'm a little concerned about how Santana finished 2007).

Ross (CA)

Was the Lincecum Gallardo debate even legitimate? That doesn't even seem like a valid comp.

Keith Law

  (1:40 PM)

I had that conversation with the baseball editor yesterday - they're such different animals.

Pat (NY)

So based on your statements about major league AB's being better development than minor league, I take it you are all for rushing players to the majors. Why do scouts differ so profusely on this issue?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

Not rushing - just promoting them when they're ready. Both Upton brothers destroyed upper-minors pitching in their age-19 seasons. They were ready to come up. I don't agree with rushing a player just because you think he SHOULD be ready ("well, we drafted him three years ago, he should be ready now"). There shouldn't be any social promotions in baseball: You move up a level when you're ready.

ttnorm, Connecticut

Tools wise, where are Justin's main advantages over BJ?

Keith Law

  (1:43 PM)

Slightly quicker bat, a little more power, a slightly stronger arm. It's not a huge difference.

Chris (madison)

Seriously, how good could the 2005 draft class turn out when we look back on it in 15 years? It seems that every new star the past few seasons is from that draft class.

Keith Law

  (1:45 PM)

It's going to go down as one of the best ever. It looks like just two of the top twelve players (Ricky Romero/Toronto and Wade Townsend/Tampa Bay) will be outright busts, and there were a lot of very good players taken in the supplemental (Buchholz, Buck, Olson), 2nd (Slowey, Headley), and 3rd (Owings, Jensen Lewis). Plus a lot of other guys I didn't name. It was very productive.

Adam

2 KLaw chats in 2 days? I might faint.

Keith Law

  (1:46 PM)

I'm looking in the cast-member portal for the worker's comp form. I think I'm developing carpal tunnel.

Bill

I think 02 might be better with BJ, Hamels, Kazmir, Matt Cain, Nick Swisher, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida (who willl probably still be a star) and Prince Fielder all in the first round

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Others from that draft: Rich Hill, Granderson, Votto, Dave Bush, Broxton, Lester, and Guthrie. Not bad. But I think 2005 is going to pass that one as the high school kids start to emerge - most of the guys from that draft who've made it were college products.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

OK, I did my 45 minutes of Upton talk, let's open it up...

Craig (Chicago, IL)

You never put anything up on your blog about Glaus for Rolen. What do you think?

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

I don't get it for Toronto - they got the older, more hurt player who's an inferior hitter. They get a defensive boost, but they take on the extra year of commitment. And they improve their defense (which was already excellent) at a cost to their offense (which was their biggest weakness).

Devin (NYC)

What player does Carlos Gomez compare to? Will he ever hit?

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

That's a guy who was rushed, in my opinion. Ton of natural talent, but didn't belong in the majors yet.

Jack (Chicago)

Who are the big names from the famed 05 draft? besides the ones you mentioned.

Keith Law

  (1:50 PM)

Top 12 picks, in order: Justin Upton, Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Braun, Romero, Tulo, Townsend, Pelfrey, Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce. Not too shabby. And Ellsbury was a late first-rounder.

Easton (IN)

Assuming Jaime Garcia's shutdown was precautionary last year, what is your take on him? When will he make it to the majors? What is his upside? Thanks again, Keith.

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

Interesting guy if there's nothing wrong with his elbow - solid fastball with good sink, good curve. Mid-rotation starter. That said, four-month elbow shutdowns don't usually end well.

Flemming (Copenhagen, Denmark)

The more KLaw chats, the better. You did Disney World. When are you doing Legoland?

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

When my daughter is old enough to handle the flight and to appreciate the trip. So I'd say at least three years out.

Bob(Pittsbugh)

I think the problems in the Pirates lack of development of players goes back further than the Littlefield era. They tried to pass off Al Martin and Kevin Young as potential stars after Bonds left.

Keith Law

  (1:53 PM)

They used to screw up every hitting prospect they got - Richie Hebner was the AAA coach, and he forced every hitting prospect he got to go up hacking. Maybe Ron Wright and TJ Staton weren't great prospects to begin with, but a better club could have gotten more value out of them.

Rich (NY, NY)

Hey Keith, wanted to know what you thought about the bullpen situation in the Bronx in 2008. Right now Cashman is saying he plans to fill the middle-innings roles with mostly young guys--maybe Ohlendorf, Kennedy (assuming he won't be in the rotation), Britton. Do you think he's serious about this? And if so, how do you feel about this strategy? I think it's a great idea.

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

I do too. You can't buy a good bullpen. The Yanks tried it repeatedly and failed. The White Sox are trying it now, and I predict they'll fail too.

Ian

What's the upside for Slowey and Perkins, two MN pitchers?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

4th starters, probably a good 5th in Perkins' case.

Mike (Kansas City)

KLaw, knowing what you know now, who would be top 4 players picked in the 2007 draft?

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

Are you saying money is not a question? I'd probably go Wieters, Price, Vitters, Porcello, Heyward, Parker, Dominguez, Main, Detwiler ... let's say Alderson 10th, he's rising in my eyes.

Adam

Jay Bruce won't be a star. Am I crazy for saying that? It sure seems like unless he hits .330 in the bigs he won't OBP enough to merit the stardom he's being awared (potentially.)

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

If he hits 35+ HR with a .340 OBP, that might still make him a star, depending on your definition. But I think he'll do a little better than that in the OBP department.

Joe (San Diego)

Where do you write from? Legoland isnt worth it if you live nearby, let alone a flight, FWIW.

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

I think Flemming was referring to the original one in Denmark. Which would be worth the trip just to go visit a country I've never visited before.

JP - Forest Hills, NY

Not to "beat a dead horse", if that's even the phrase, but taking a look at the stalemate in the Santana negotiations and the history over the past 4 months with it...do you think that Santana could get dealt to the Yankees in spring training at a reduced rate? Perhaps Kennedy, Cabrera, Horne, Austin Jackson, and Marquez?

Keith Law

  (1:59 PM)

I wouldn't be surprised if he was dealt in March, but I think it would be more likely that one of the New Yorks or Boston suffers a big injury in its rotation and decides to pull the trigger.

James (IA)

Back to the Uptons for a second....Are all signs pointing then to Justin starting the year with the big club and playing everyday?

Keith Law

  (1:59 PM)

Yes, I believe that's exactly it.

Steve (Denver)

Holliday, last two arbitration years $23m ... thoughts?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

Just cost certainty, I guess. Probably saves the club a little money, but the long-term impact is nil - they had him under control for both years anyway.

Daniel (La Palma, CA)

Don't forget Howie Kendrick in the '02 draft.

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

Apparently I did just that.

Nigel (PA)

Are Cain and Lincecum the best *young* (under the gae of 25) duo in MVB? Who do you like better, Cain or Timmy?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

If you're only talking about established guys, then off the top of my head I can't beat that tandem. Buchholz/Lester and Joba/Hughes/Kennedy will have something to say about it this year, and Billingsley/Kershaw probably in '09. (I think I'm forgetting another obvious pair.) I like Cain better - Lincecum's trouble getting through the lineup a second time is consistent with what I saw from him when he was in college, and it's why I've always liked him as a multi-inning reliever, a guy who takes the ball in the 6th or 7th and shuts the game down either into the 9th or to the end of the game.

Adam

Bruce drew 113 BBs in 1157 cumulative Minor League Atbats. His line was .299/.362/.543. If he can sit at .310 with that line (and the subsequent bump in OBP and SLG) then yeah, that's a star. Maybe I don't see the hype, but I know I don't see any reason to think he'll draw more walks at the MLB level.

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

The reason would be age - he's young, he's got time to develop as a hitter, and he's been young for his leagues so far. But riddle me this: What's the difference between him and Travis Snider except a year of experience?

Kelly ( Long Beach, CA)

quick Dodger question.. Do you think it hurts the Dodgers not having a left-handed starting pitcher? Are they counting on Elbert making the rotation sometime in '08 to compensate for this? Also, how does Kemp stack up against Bruce in your opinion?

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

I like Kemp better than Bruce. I don't think having a LHS is that critical - maybe in the AL East where there are a number of very good LHB, but probably not - and I would hope they're not counting on Elbert to come back that quickly after a missed season.

Matt (Brookline, MA)

Thoughts on Pena signing with TB? If produces just 75% of what he did last year, that is going to be a hellatious offense in 2009-10.

Keith Law

  (2:05 PM)

That third year looks like a screaming bargain to me.

Andy (Durham)

Speaking of Richie Hebner, he was Upton's AAA coach in Durham, could that explain the mediocre numbers in AAA for BJ?

Keith Law

  (2:06 PM)

I think it's a big factor. He's also not the best person when it comes to dealing to some of his players.

kevin (dayton OH)

I know this is about the Uptons, but i had a question from your last chat, have you ever read "on the road"-- could that be the best "American" novel?

Keith Law

  (2:08 PM)

I have read it and enjoyed it, but I have a hard time with that as the Great American Novel. To me it only encompassed a limited experience, too narrow of a focus to earn such a broad title. But hey, we can argue about literature forever, given the lack of objective criteria. At least we all can agree that one thing is true: Jim Rice doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame. Thanks!