Nate Ravitz

  (11:01 AM)

I'm here, prepared to chat about all things fantasy.

Jdog (Washington, D.C.)

I know experts usually preach hitting over pitching in keepers..and I generally agree. But, how far does that carry? Would you keep two elite pitchers (Santana and Bedard) over a V. Wells or Dan Uggla? How about over a Delmon Young?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:02 AM)

I'd keep Santana over any of those three, and probably Bedard, too. The hitting over pitching things applies when you're comparing players of similar value, ie. keeping a superstar hitter (like Wright) over a superstar pitcher like Santana.

Gray (Chicago)

Nate, Do you think Casey Kotchman may be a sleeper this year in that lineup and with a chance to make some of those doubles to turn into HRs? Do you see him becoming a 20 HR man in the next few years? People forget he is only 25...

Nate Ravitz

  (11:05 AM)

I don't think people forget that he's 25. I think they remember that he's had trouble staying healthy and never hit a ton of homers in the minors. That said, I do think he's a sleeper, and I do think he'll hit at least 16-17 homers this season.

Gray (Chicago)

In a dynasty league would you rather have Casey Kotchman or Joey Votto...disregard steals in a points league, not very valuable.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:05 AM)

Votto, but they're about the same.

Kelly (Des Moines, IA)

How good do you expect Elton Brand to be once he returns? Is he worth the gamble for the final month of the season?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:06 AM)

He's worth the gamble if you don't have to give much up. I suspect he'll be 70 percent of his usual self.

Rudy (Conn.)

It seems like some sites are really high on Aaron Hill and others do not have him in the top ten 2B. What are your thoughts on him?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:08 AM)

I'm high on him AND I don't have him in my top 10 at 2B, although he's probably 11 or 12. Second base is pretty strong this year.

Allen (Asheville NC)

Mr. Ravitz, 6 x 6 10 player lifetime keeper league. Last pitcher keeper Zito, Blanton or Hughes? Thanks

Nate Ravitz

  (11:08 AM)

I'd keep Hughes, even though I'm not a Hughes guy. Blanton is the safest bet.

Ethan (Memphis)

Hey Nate, is ESPN going to have it's player rankings up anytime soon? I like to use them as a starting point for mine.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:09 AM)

They'll be launched with our draft kit next week.

Jon (Eden Prairie, MN)

Injuries are killing me. Bynum, J. O'Neal, Hill, Conley, Deng... Are Cassell and Brewer worth adding as temporary replacements?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:11 AM)

Yes. I added Cassell myself a few days ago.

Bill (Boston, MA)

Can keep 5 of the following: Braun, Holliday, Markakis, Pujols, Rollins, Weeks, Bedard, Lackey, Liriano. Also, can keep one of the following youngsters as a sleeper pick: Ellsbury, Buccholz or Hughes.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:12 AM)

I'd keep Pujols, Rollins, Holliday, Braun and Bedard. And Buccholz would be my "sleeper" pick

Rich (Wentzville MO)

Nate, Who would you pick Pujols or Ryan Howard? Are the concerns of Pujols' elbow something to really be concerned about?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:12 AM)

The Pujols elbow rumblings are enough for me to knock him a few spots down my rankings, but he's still the No. 1 first baseman.

Ira (LA)

Can you give me a realistic prediction for Carlos Pena? Is Pena worth keeping considering he's being drafted in the 7th round of 12 team 5 x5 leagues? My league allows 5 keepers and I'm not currently keeping a picther (Reyes, C. Lee, Maggs, Bruan and Pena). I would only have to give up a 15th round pick?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:14 AM)

He's easily worth keeping as a 15th rounder. I'll say he hits .275 with more than 35 homers.

Tommy (Atl)

Will Daric Barton play anywhere other than 1B? If not, what happens to Dan Johnson?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:14 AM)

I think Cust will get plenty of PT in the outfield, so there's plenty of room for both Barton and Johnson to play regularly between 1B and DH.

Reggie (Orlando)

Bedard was 13-5, 221 K's, 3.16 ERA on a 93-loss team last year. If he gets traded to Seattle, would you keep him over Dan Haren in a lifetime keeper league?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:15 AM)

No. Seems I get this question a lot. I'd keep Haren. I place more value on durability than most when it comes to pitchers. Bedard has maybe 15 percent higher upside than Haren with about 100 percent more risk.

Grant (NY)

Speaking of rankings.. who are your top ten going into the season?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:17 AM)

My personal top 10 is 1. A-Rod 2. Hanley 3. Reyes 4. Wright 5. Utley 6. Rollins 7. Pujols 8. Cabrera 9. Holliday 10. Crawford. Let the hate mail begin

Thaddeus (Denver)

Why do players such as McCann and Mauer go two to four rounds earlier than Posada in most of the mock drafts that I am seeing? Even if Jorge takes a step back, he could hit .290/20/85.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:18 AM)

That's the effect of people thinking McCann has .330-25-100 upside and Mauer has .350-15-100 upside. Which may be true, but I agree that Posada looks like a bargain in drafts so far.

Jim (Albany NY)

Hey Nate, Are you a Nick Swisher fan, 290 .520 100 runs 100rbis's 100 bb reasonable projection for him? thanks and appreciate your work.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:19 AM)

I'm not a fan. Those projections are reasonable except for the BA. He'll be lucky to hit .270

Eric (Orlando)

Hey Nate, I got a keeper question for you. Please pick 5... M. Cabrera (1), Fielder (3), Rios (8), Bedard (9), Martin (17), Markakis (18), Maybin (24), Longoria (25).

Nate Ravitz

  (11:23 AM)

Assuming that's Melky Cabrera. I'd keep Fielder, Rios, Bedard, Martin and I guess Melky.

Nils (Stamford)

Long-term keeper question: I like Saltalamacchia's upside, but can he stay at C for at least the first half of his MLB career?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:24 AM)

He can and probably will. That said, I think he's overrated in the short term and likely to spend much of this season in the minors.

Cpt. Obvious (Bristol, CT)

Melky?? I think Eric might be talking about Miggy Cabrera . . .

Nate Ravitz

  (11:24 AM)

Highly unlikely that he has Miggy at a dollar.

Adam (New York)

Hey Nate, who you think is going to land Santana?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:25 AM)

The Twins. But I could easily be wrong.

Dan (NYC)

Hey Nate, in a league transitioning to dynasty, would you rather have Morneau or BJ Upton (not factoring in his 2B eligibility this year - going forward he's only OF eligible and this is my concern)?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:25 AM)

I'd rather have Upton, which is no knock on Morneau.

Eric (Orlando)

The parenthesis were rounds to be kept in. Sorry for the confusion.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:29 AM)

Got it. I was thinking dollars. So, my new answer is 1. Markakis 2. Bedard 3. Martin 4. Rios 5. Longoria

Paris

Tuesday morning is a strange time to be drunk already Nathan.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:30 AM)

Pot. Kettle. Black.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

plain and simple: what's your beef w/ Kazmir this season? he made serious strides in the second half.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:33 AM)

Who says I have a beef with Kazmir? I just don't like him as much as others. He pitched better in the second half, but I'm not sure I'd call it "strides". Each of the last three seasons his walk rate improved in the second half, and each of the last two he had control problems right out of the gate,

Trey (VA)

Markakis vs. Grady. Who you got?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:33 AM)

Grady, though Nick is closing the gap.

Todd, San Diego

Who do you feel are the three most undervalued "stars" going into drafts. I got Manny, Maggs and Markakis (what does Sizemore do that Markakis doesn't four or five rounds later?)

Nate Ravitz

  (11:35 AM)

Haren, Saito, Jason Bay.

Dan(Richmond, VA)

25/25 for Torii Hunter with the move to LA?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:36 AM)

Something like that. Steals are a tad high.

Nate, Wa

Who's your top 11-20 overall?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:39 AM)

With the caveat that I'm not going further: 11. Santana 12. Howard 13. Soriano 14. Ichiro 15. Peavy 16. Sizemore 17. Braun 18. Ortiz 19. Fielder 20. C. Lee

Dan (NYC)

Nate, what kind of season do you think Chris Young has? Serious improvements in average and OBP?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:39 AM)

Small improvement in AVG, better improvement in OBP.

Frick (LaGrange)

Back to Kazmir, you don't consider an 8-3 record with a 2.39 era and 124 Ks after the all star break to be serious strides

Nate Ravitz

  (11:42 AM)

Correct. It's a great second half, but not necessarily indicative of sustainable improvement. Could be, but might not be.

Adam (Chicago)

A question on your personal top 10 - why Utley at 5 overall? Even if you project his stats over a full year, he's still below Phillips. This year can't you wait for a 2b until late?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:44 AM)

Your premise is misguided. Utley played 26 fewer games than Phillips last year and STILL drove in more runs and scored only three fewer. That combined with a 45+ point edge in BA more than makes up for the steals difference, and the home runs should be close to equal.

Mike (San Diego)

Are you a Delmon believer?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:45 AM)

Yes, although the 25-homer power may be another full year away.

Trey (VA)

With Crawford in your top ten, are you thinking he gets to 25-30 HRs this year?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:46 AM)

Not at all. But he doesn't need to. A .300 BA, 100 runs, 75 RBI and 50 steals are top 10 numbers with only a dozen or so homers.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

plain and simple: do you see a decline coming for Vlad or Beltran this season?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:46 AM)

No. Vlad declined last year but should stay at close to that level this year. I doubt Beltran declines any time soon.

Nate, Wa

What do you think is the thinnest position this year, besides catcher?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:47 AM)

Depends a bit on the type/size of league. I actually think OF is pretty thin in terms of mid-range players.

John (Lakeland)

Pick one to keep: Cano (cost 5th round pick), Hamels (6th), Rios (6th), Carlos Pena (10th), Gallardo (10th), or Rowand (21st)?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:48 AM)

Tough call, with everyone but Cano being a legitimate consideration. I'd probably keep Rios.

Train (OAK)

Good morning Nate! Carlos Pena's hr/fb rate jumped from career 18% to 30% last year. He maintained this rate all year and his other bpi's were consistent with his career (fb%, contact rate, etc.). Do you see this rise in hr/fb rate as a fluke or a result of growth that can be maintained in 08? Thanks!

Nate Ravitz

  (11:48 AM)

I think it's mainly growth, but a slight regression is still possible if not likely.

mike (newport beach)

what do you see from eric chavez, does he still rank in the top 10 third baseman

Nate Ravitz

  (11:51 AM)

He's barely even a top 25 third baseman. Third is one of the deepest positions now. That said, for where you can draft him, he's a low-risk, medium-reward guy.

Cory(DC)

Milledge or Carlos Gonzalez for '08?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:51 AM)

Milledge, easily, but just for this year.

James (NYC)

Why don't you like Cano in the 5th?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:52 AM)

Because he's not at all a good value there, assuming 10 or 12 teams. I have him ranked around 80, but even if I'm being too hard on him, there's no way you can justify taking him among the top 50 or so.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

plain and simple: Kendrick projections? If I don't nab Utley at #6, I'll be looking at him and Weeks late.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:53 AM)

Assuming a full season, I think Kendrick hits .320 with about 12 homers, 15 steals, 100 runs and 70 RBI

Train (OAK)

Hi Nate, pls explain why you think Bay will bounce back from last year. thanks!

Nate Ravitz

  (11:54 AM)

Bay had knee surgery prior to last year and had pain in the knee for much of the season. To me, that seems like a logical explanation for a (then) 28-year-old to fall off the table more than any other reason.

Matt

Nate - Five keepers from the following: Reyes, Cabrera, Crawford, Texeira, Magglio, Bedard, Halladay. Thanks for your help.

Nate Ravitz

  (11:54 AM)

Reyes, Crawford, Cabrera, Tex and Bedard

Trey (VA)

Do you think it'd be worth it to take Bonds as a last round pick in a league that values BB and OPS?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:55 AM)

No. Only if legal briefs is a category.

Sam (Chicago)

If Pujols starts to drop in drafts, when does it become "completely insane" not to draft him? 10th pick?

Nate Ravitz

  (11:56 AM)

I'd say right around there.

Frank (Boston)

Nate - you do HATE Kazmir. 8-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 126 K's in the 2nd half as pervious poster mentioned after he went back to his old delivery. 10 W's at all star break in 2006 should dispel questions of run support/bullpen as Rays pitcher, as should his career ERA against Sox and Yanks. I do not see why Kaz shouldn't be a top SP 8 option (weighing risk/reward) since he the potential to be up there with peavy/johan if he puts two halves together and worst case is top 15 like last year.

Nate Ravitz

  (12:00 PM)

Sigh. Can't we just agree to disagree? he has tremendous upside and also a lot more risk than most of the guys I'd rank ahead of him. And he absolutely was NOT a top 15 pitcher last year. Our player rater had him 19th among starting pitchers.

Nate Ravitz

  (12:00 PM)

And with that, we now get a one-week break from me being bludgeoned for my "hatred" of the evil Scott Kazmir. Remember, there's another fantasy chat at 3:00 pm ET.