Keith Lipscomb

  (3:01 PM)

Good afternoon, everyone! Hope you're having a great day. Let's get to your questions.

Mike (Albany, NY)

Hi Keith, please help!!!! Choose 4: Crawford, And. Jones, Arm. Ramirez, Soriano, Granderson, McCann, Tejada, Nathan, King Felix, Chris Young (SD pitcher)?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:03 PM)

Hi Mike. Assuming this is just keeping for this season only, I would have to go with Crawford, Ramirez, Soriano and Granderson.

Broseph (getting hit with a burrito in San Diego)

General baseball keeper question. How come all "experts" value keeping hitters over pitchers based on predictability? Assuming you are getting $$ or draft round value, why not keep as many pitchers as possible and plow your additional $$$ or high round picks into what IS predictable, typically, and that is hitter's stats.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:08 PM)

That's no way to treat a man while he's chatting! I can only speak for myself, Broseph, but I have seen others use your suggested approach successfully, too. I personally find it easier to KEEP the players I feel most comfortable with attaining their projected value, which are often hitters for me. Then, I can draft my pitchers since win totals are much more difficult to predict than, say, batting average, to use one example.

Gray (Chicago)

Keith, with Santana gone, how do you see the Twins rotation shaking out to start the season?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:10 PM)

Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Slowey, with the No. 5 spot up for grabs in the spring.

Steve Balboni (Bronx, NY)

As it stands, 3 of my 5 keepers are OF (Ichiro, Markakis, and Chris B Young to go with A-rod and Haren). I am thinking about keeping Cano over Ichiro (I can't keep him over the others) Obviously I lose a lot in the SB dept., but Cano should still hit for a very good avg., hit more homers and drive in more runs than Ichiro, and will give me better roster flexibility going into the draft. What do you think?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:14 PM)

Good to hear from you, Bye Bye...Well, I have Ichiro ranked a few rounds higher than Cano. I actually would keep Cano over Chris B. Young in this case, since you'll get the steals with Ichiro that Young would give you, except your BA would receive a huge boost by keeping Cano instead of Young. I like Young a lot, but you've got strong keepers and can set yourself up nicely in BA, so that you can still draft Young early on in your draft. And you'd still have that flexibility that you desired, positionally.

On the Ledge (Richmond)

Keith - please tell me that the Cowboys aren't going to trade MBIII to the Dolphins. My keepers are MBIII, Lynch and Ronnie Brown. If this happens, am I better off keeping Fitzgerald over Ronnie?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:17 PM)

I must say I was surprised to hear Barber's name come up in trade, although it's no secret Jerry Jones loves Darren McFadden. I don't like to act much on rumors, until I hear that a deal is officially on the table for one team to decide, but there's no question that Barber and Brown would hurt each other's value if they were on the same team. And for that reason alone, you would be better off picking one of them and keeping Fitz.

Steve Balboni (Bronx, NY)

As stated in my original question, I cannot keep Cano over Chris B Young in my league format.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:19 PM)

Misunderstood what you meant, so I apologize. I would keep Ichiro over Cano personally.

Jerry, CA

which gets the better side of this: Lackey and Big Poppi for Johan

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:23 PM)

While there's no arguing Johan being a better option than Lackey, at least Lackey is going to give you big innings, win games and really quite consistent overall. And to add Papi as well, I'd have to take that deal, because of the power numbers he'll put up. If the team that's trading Papi has plenty of hitting depth, I can see trying to grab the best starting pitcher in the game, though. But in that proverbial vacuum, I like getting Lackey and Papi.

Brian (SF)

Lifetime keeper league question: 86.5K salary cap; salary min of $1050. Trade of Helton ($3020) for Harden ($1560). I get Helton. I need to drop salary to get under cap - already have Teixeira and Overbay at 1b, so would drop Overbay ($2080). Thoughts?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:26 PM)

Brian, you're chatting with someone who thinks Overbay is generally undervalued, so maybe I'm a bit biased. The biggest thing Helton has on Overbay is BA, which he'll likely get him by 20 points or so this season. However, if you take Overbay's numbers when he was healthy from '04-06, he averaged .296-19-83-81 runs, which is awfully close to what Helton will get you in those final three categories. So I'd save the money by keeping Overbay and maybe look for another deal. Overbay's also three years younger than Helton, which could begin to factor in more.

Joe

What advice can you give to someone doing an auction for the first time?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:30 PM)

Joe, each auction I've been in has been totally different, but two things I've found to be true are: 1.) Don't be afraid to pay for that stud you covet; 2.) Have a list of salaries you'd be willing to pony up for each guy. There are magazines and websites that offer auction values, so I'd recommend grabbing/checking out a few of them, at least, and most importantly, make sure that you base your numbers proportionately on whatever your cap might be, whether it's $260, $400, whatever. Good luck and have fun with it!

Craig ( PA)

Is their a HUGE gap between a pitcher like Eric Bedard and a pitcher like Aaron Harang?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:35 PM)

Not at all. You'll see many of the top pitchers, like the two you mention all over people's draft boards. After the season Bedard had in '07, especially with his crazy strikeout rate and great WHIP and ERA, he'll be ahead of Harang on most people's lists. Harang is a lot like Lackey, in that, he's done it for longer and has become remarkably consistent. Bedard has more upside, but seriously, how much better could he be than he was in '07?

The Comcast Slowskies

You are a hunt and peck typer, aren't you? Just admit it.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:36 PM)

Actually, I'm just a slow thinker/overanalyzer, but thanks for noticing one of my many faults! :-)

Todd, San Diego

Keith, Would you offer Ryan Zimmerman (3yr contract at $7) or Howie Kendrick (3 yr contract at $2) for Clay Buccholtz (3 yr at $2)? I also have Aaron Hill and Ryan Braun at 2nd and 3rd.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:38 PM)

Todd, this is tough, because I like both Kendrick and Zimmerman going forward. With Braun only having this season left as far as 3B eligibility, I would consider dealing Kendrick, if you're concerned about having a quality corner guy for '09. Kendrick's high average is what makes is so difficult to do, I'm sure.

Frank (Boston)

Go out on a limb and name 5 guys who you think will be picked 10th round or later this year and will be picked in the top 5 rounds next year. Here are mine: R. Weeks, Hermida, Kemp, Lincecum, Chamberlain. Thanks!

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:41 PM)

Well, you named some good ones already, but to throw a couple of other possibilities out there, I would say Delmon Young, Matt Cain and Alex Gordon. I'm not so sure that some of those others will be taken in the 10th round or later, either.

Lee

how long do you think parker is gonna be out?...also, i just traded felton and aldridge for josh howard...do you think howards's number will decrease if kidd goes to Big D?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:44 PM)

Well, Parker's supposed to have an MRI tomorrow to determine how much time he'll miss. I know this: Pop won't let him come back any sooner than he should, because he knows it's most important to have him at 100% for the playoffs. But to answer your second question, I can't see how an acquisition of J-Kidd would do anything but help Howard's numbers, really, just because Kidd is about setting up teammates.

Rick (CA)

Keith: Is there a good website that lists the day of the game weather forcasts for all the games?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:45 PM)

I know the Weather Channel's site does something, but it's really not something I've paid a great deal of attention to, to be quite honest.

Matt (Alabama)

How do you rate Mauer and Tulo in relation to each other? I know its hard because of different positions, but which round would you take each player?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:48 PM)

I have Tulowitzki rated as a late 4th-rounder, early 5th-rounder in 10-team leagues, although he could go higher than that for sure. And I have Mauer as more of a 7th or 8th-rounder.

Dan (MI)

6 player H2H keeper league. Keeping Teixeira, Reyes, Wright, Holliday, and Santana. WHo should I keep as # 6: Soriano or Beckett? Thanks.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:50 PM)

I like Soriano better. I have him rated a round or two higher on my draft board.

Jack (LA)

Are you sir a Geovanny Soto believer? Project away for 2008...

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:54 PM)

This is dangerous territory with such a small major league sample and one huge power season in the minors -- in the PCL, no less. However, I'd say he's arguably a top-10 catcher and can see him hitting .275-13-67 to throw some numbers out there.

Matt,mpls

Would you pick up Damon Stoudamire if you were desperate for PG play?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:56 PM)

I guess it depends on your definition of desperate, Matt. If he does indeed land in San Antonio as is being reported, I can't see how he'd have sustained value, especially once Parker is back on the court. There's a big difference from the top 3 options in San Antone and the rest of the guys.

John (NY)

Is this finally the year that either Trevor Hoffman or John Smoltz see a significant decline?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:59 PM)

I know Smoltz is 40, but it would be a wild guess to say he falls off big-time this year. He's just been too good and worked deep into games last season to suggest that. For Hoffman, the evidence is not as convincing, since he only appears to be on a bit shakier ground. If I had to pick one of the two, Hoffman is certainly the one I'd pick. But a significant decline? I doubt it.

Keith Lipscomb

  (4:01 PM)

That's all the time I've got this week, people. Thanks a lot for all the questions, once again. See you next week!