Jayson Stark

  (1:00 PM)

OK, all you Phillies and Mets fans ready to start arguing? Can't wait. Let's get going.

Aaron from Cleveland

Is it really up to Johan? I say it all falls on Pedro. If you have him in there with his post-season accomplishments, he is the one that will take the Mets back to the place they haven't been since 2000.

Jayson Stark

  (1:03 PM)

I don't think you're ever going to see that Pedro again. You're going to see a guy who makes something like 22 starts, averages a little over 5 innings a start and gets it done with his pitching IQ, as opposed to stuff. He's a fun guy to have around, but not as a centerpiece anymore. I had a scout say to me yesterday that this division will come down to John Maine and Oliver Perez, versus Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick. Who do you like in that matchup? I think I'd take the Mets twosome, but not with any great conviction.

Steve (Ship, PA)

I admit, Johan Santana is a great pitcher, but he is the only significant addition to the Mets team, and he is only a factor once every 5 days. The Phillies became stronger with the addition of Myers in the rotation and Lidge bullpen and at third base with Feliz.

Jayson Stark

  (1:05 PM)

OK, let's list all the "big-name" additions for both teams, assuming Santana happens: METS - Santana, Brian Schneider, Ryan Church, Matt Wise, Angel Pagan. PHILLIES - Lidge, Feliz, Geoff Jenkins, So Taguchi, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett. So the Phillies have added more useful parts than the Mets -- but nobody who can have the impact that Santana can have if he's healthy. The Phillies, I think, are deeper. But that doesn't mean they're better.

Adam Manayunk pa

Why do people compare the mets offense with the phils when the phils get the advantage of 81 games at CBP and the mets have to play at Shea?

Jayson Stark

  (1:07 PM)

That's a fair point. Their respective road numbers were fairly similar, but the Phillies still were better across the board.

Andrew (NJ)

That's the first time a list of "Big name" additions includes Matt Wise and Eric Bruntlett! What, no love for Steven Register?

Jayson Stark

  (1:08 PM)

Sorry, Steven. I regret that I also omitted Valentino Pascucci, Brian Stokes and Ron Chiavacci.

Rick (Wash. DC)

Are we forgetting, the Phils lost Aaron Rowand?

Jayson Stark

  (1:11 PM)

Of course not. I don't forget ANYTHING. But it's a good excuse to list the "big-name" players both teams lost: METS - Tom Glavine, Shawn Green, Lastings Milledge, Paul Loduca and (ahem) Guillermo Mota. PHILLIES - Rowand, Michael Bourn, Tadahito Iguchi, (ahem) Geoff Geary, (ahem) Freddy Garcia and (ahem) Jon Lieber. Again, I'd say advantage Phillies. Victorino will be as good defensively in center as Rowand was. And I'd bet Jenkins/Werth will basically supply equivalent offense. And they'll get more offense from Feliz, all that hacking notwithstanding, than they got from that platoon last year.

Jeff, Champaign, IL

Jayson, I'm a cubs fan first and foremost. I have to admit I found it a little humorous when you listed Angled Pagan as a "big-name" addition for the Mets. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a solid player, but do you really think he has the ability to be anything more than just a fourth outfielder and pinch-hitter/runner?

Jayson Stark

  (1:13 PM)

Uh, I'd better nip this "big-name" debate in the bud before it takes on a life of its own. I was basically listing acquisitions who, I think, are safe to project as being on the team. Definitely didn't mean to imply that Pagan was going to make the all-star team or anything like that.

Billy M. (Nazareth, PA)

Would you really pick a team to win a division with a rotation consisting of Adam Eaton and his 6.29 ERA, a 45 year old Jamie Moyer, and guys like Kyle Kendrick and J.D. Durbin with one so-so year of big league experience?

Jayson Stark

  (1:14 PM)

That's THE question about the Phillies -- the rotation after Hamels and Myers. I don't see El Duque/Mike Pelfrey in the Mets' fifth hole as being any kind of sure thing, either. But the questions about the back end of the Phillies' rotation definitely outnumber the questions about the bottom of the Mets' rotation.

Andrew (Old Bridge, NJ)

Brad Lidge is going to have a mental breakdown the first time he gives up a routine flyball to left field at home that ends up in the stands.

Jayson Stark

  (1:17 PM)

He wouldn't be the first if he did. But he did pitch in Houston, remember. That isn't exactly Petco. Nevertheless, Lidge is as pivotal a figure in this race as anybody you can bring up. He HAS to get back to what he was, because what's Plan B? Flash Gordon? Moving Myers back to the bullpen? That move has to work, or the Phillies have major pitching issues. It was the centerpiece of their entire approach to the offseason.

Eli B. (Atlanta, GA)

I know you want to leave the Braves out of the equation right now, but it seems wrong to talk about best of the NL East without them. The Braves are short on speed, but are just as good as the Phillies and Mets at every position, (much better behind the plate).

Jayson Stark

  (1:19 PM)

Well, I figure I'd better get this issue out of the way, too. The format of these Hot Stove Heaters can be described as "One or the Other, This Team or That Team, Column A or Column B." This is my third debate, and there was a reasonable third option in all of them. But that's not the format. So I'm perfectly willing to concede that the Braves could end up being better than either of these teams. Heck, they'll take 10 legitimate big-league starting pitchers to camp. But the rules say we're debating last year's division champs versus the team that just made THE move of the winter. So with that preamble, NO MORE BRAVES QUESTIONS! Got that?

Mike (Harrisburg)

Jayson, I think you are not giving Chase Utley his due credit vs. lefties... a .282 vs lefties isn't bad at all... also Pat Burrell owns the mets, the phillies defense and fielding is overall more superior, and if Cole Hamels keeps progressing he will definatly challenge Santana for the cy young. Myers is a wild card, he COULD win 18-20 games, but he could struggle... so while both teams have questions, the phillies have a greater talent pool to build from, they also have more heart then the mets by far.

Jayson Stark

  (1:23 PM)

You're right about Utley. He actually hit .318 vs lefthanders last year. But if you're on the other side of the field, would you rather see him heading for the plate in a big spot to face a righthander or a lefthander? Pretty easy answer, isn't it? I think all of your points about the Phillies are on the mark. They're definitely capable of winning this division. The other teams in the league are always talking about all the "gamers" the Phillies run out there. I don't know how many wins that's worth. But they definitely have a different energy than the Mets. I agree with that.

Dennis (DC)

Another big question for the Mets is the mental aspect. If they struggle for a week in Aug or Sept, does it become a self feeding monster like last year?

Jayson Stark

  (1:26 PM)

The mental aspect of this race is one of the most fascinating questions out there. When a team goes through a historic collapse, what kind of scars does that leave? Conversely, when a team like the Phillies -- that was constantly told it didn't know how to win -- finally does win, does it change that team in some way? I think both teams will have some sort of carryover from the way last year finished. But I think the Santana deal erases a lot of the Mets' pain. Don't you?

Dan (New York)

While the Santana add is huge, Pedro and ElDuque still has to stay healthy in the rotation and I worry that the Mets dont have enough depth to replace Alou when he goes down.

Jayson Stark

  (1:29 PM)

I'm with you all the way on this front. Moises Alou WILL go down. History tells us that. And Endy Chavez and Angel Pagan don't nearly replace his production. Meanwhile, does anybody expect Pedro and El Duque to combine for 60 starts? 50? 40? If they miss 30 starts, who makes them? Jorge Sosa? And then who? Big depth questions on a team that decimated its farm system to make this trade.

Dan (New York, NY)

The biggest asset in the deal is that now everyone will focus on how good Johan is, not how aweful last year's collapse was. The met's would like to assume that last year was a fluke and the that the phil's don't own us, but they did and without any personel changes who is going to convince them that is going to change. JOHAN for president.

Jayson Stark

  (1:31 PM)

I agree with everything except the Johan-for-president line. He's ineligible to run, I'm pretty sure -- even as an independent.

Jayson Stark

  (1:32 PM)

Oh, one more thing. The true importance of this move is that it changes the entire nature of the conversation about the Mets this spring. And that's a big deal, not a little deal.

Jake (Ohio)

Jayson: Did the Mets deal really affect their minor league system that much? Doesn't seem that way to me. I am fairly familiar with the Phillies minor leaque system and can't think of too many major-league ready players that they could call up.

Jayson Stark

  (1:36 PM)

The Phillies' system was already thin. They at least took pains to hold onto what prospects they had this winter. The Mets, aside from Mike Pelfrey, really have just about nobody left to call up if they need help. Fernando Martinez is at least a year away. And only one of their remaining top 20 prospects (as ranked by Baseball America) played above double-A ball. That was Joe Smith, who's just a situational bullpen arm. The Phillies' system isn't much deeper, true. But their big-league team is definitely deeper.

Chris (NY, NY)

Jayson, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse were mentioned as Plan B's for the Mets. Is there any way they still sign one...you know, for that depth if/when El Duque and Pedro go down?

Jayson Stark

  (1:36 PM)

Not impossible, from what I've heard, but unlikely.

Not Billy in Nazareth

Dude - that rotation won last year with Freddie Garcia and Jon Leiber penciled in the top three slots.

Jayson Stark

  (1:38 PM)

You know, dude, Lieber wasn't even penciled into the rotation until Garcia got hurt if I remember correctly. And the opening-day starter (Myers) was in the bullpen by Memorial Day. So if your point was that last year didn't go quite the way they drew it up, I agree with that. But I still don't see how they match up with the Mets' rotation, here in the post-Santana era.

Andre GA

If Pedro or El Duque go down ... wouldn't it be better to sign Freddy Garcia as a back up?? He'll be cheap and a one year deal should do.

Jayson Stark

  (1:40 PM)

Freddy isn't going to be ready to pitch until deep into the season. So he's just an inventory signing, no more and no less.

Na'eem (Queens, NY)

What do you think about the Mets bullpen? Wagner has yet to have a season that makes New Yorkers forget the guy that closes across town and outside of him, what else is there? Who is going to eat up the innings (on a regular and reliable basis) to get the ball to the 9th since we know that our starters won't exactly be pitching complete games every night?

Jayson Stark

  (1:41 PM)

Duaner Sanchez is another pivotal figure in this discussion. They missed that shutdown setup arm all year last season. If he gets back to being that guy, I'd take Wagner-Sanchez-Heilman over Lidge-Gordon-Romero. Anybody disagree?

David (New York City)

Jayson, It seems to me the key match up is Myers v. Pedro. The former has to transition back to the rotation and the latter has to stay healthy. The other big question is can Lidge close in Philadelphia and does Reyes bounce back from a bad second half or does he become Juan Samuel, a really talented guy who could never make adjustments.

Jayson Stark

  (1:45 PM)

These are all good questions. I'd take Myers over Pedro, the 2008 edition, just because I think Myers will pitch 50-75 more innings. I don't worry about Reyes at all. My wife is a volleyball coach, and I tell her all the time that progress isn't measured in a straight line. Jose Reyes hasn't even turned 25 yet. He's still going to be a great player. He was due for a stretch like that. Lidge is tougher to figure. His stuff is still great. The guy struck out 31 percent of all the hitters he faced last year. Mariano Rivera was only at 25 percent. Wagner was only at 28 percent. So obviously, it's still in there. The question is whether Lidge now has confidence issues. If he does, Philadelphia isn't normally the kind of place that guys like that rebuild their psyches. Ever noticed that?

Jack (Philadelphia)

I disagree with the Wagner-Sanchez-Heilman over Lidge-Gordon-Romero. Down the stretch - when it mattered - Gordon & Romero were better than Wagner and Heilman

Jayson Stark

  (1:47 PM)

You're looking at an awfully short sample. You're right. But let's step back and look at the big picture. Romero got RELEASED last year. Gordon is no sure bet to be healthy, and he's 40 years old. And Lidge has had a rough couple of years. I can see a scenario where the Phillies' bullpen it's better. But I don't see how I could possibly predict it will be better.

Jayson Stark

  (1:48 PM)

One of our ESPN researchers, Jon Kramer, passes along this Brad Lidge nugget of note: 10 career appearances at Citizens Bank ... 6-for-6 in saves ... 1.00 ERA ... 0 HR allowed

Michael C (Philadelpha, PA)

I'd take Lidge-Gordon-Romero. Watched Wagner play here in Philly, and he just doesn't have the same stuff now he did a few years ago. Gordon and Romero may not have the stuff of Sanchez, but as they showed last year they have heart and know-how. I would also expect Ryan Madson to play a role in the late innings in Philly this year.

Jayson Stark

  (1:52 PM)

I find all this sniping about Billy Wagner pretty amusing. You'd think he were Jorge Julio or something. Is Wagner what he was a few years ago? No. But the league hit .216 against him last year, with a .281 on-base percentage. 55 hits, 80 strikeouts. In other words, he basically turned the entire league into Gerald Laird. Or Adam Kennedy. He's still pretty darned good, compared to the masses. Trust me.

JR: (Philly)

Any chance of the Phillies bringing back Lohse or possibly going after Livan Hernandez? I really think Hernandez would be a great pickup because he is an innings-eater and the Phil's bullpen is so slim. Any thoughts?

Jayson Stark

  (1:54 PM)

No chance on Hernandez. They're still in on Lohse. But he's looking for $11m-plus a year, for three years with a vesting option. The Phillies' offer is $2m-3m less a year, and they prefer no more than two years. So he's going to have to get desperate.

Cheez Whit (Philly)

Reyes Wright Belran vs. Rollins Utley Howard?? I'll take the Mets.

Jayson Stark

  (1:55 PM)

You could win a World Series with either one of them. But I disagree. I'll take that Phillies group. Sorry.

Jesse (metsrefugees.com)

I think a huge part of the Mets success in the lineup this year depends on Delgado bouncing back from a career-worst year...What's your prognosis? Is he washed up or likely to come back strong in 08?

Jayson Stark

  (1:56 PM)

Well, he's definitely in decline. But this is a contract year. I bet he bounces back, if not to prime-time levels, then at least to a much higher level than last year. Another really pivotal player in the life of this race.

Noonan (Philly, PA)

$11M/year for Lohse? Man, I wish I could pitch. Though I think the Mets are the clear favorite with Santana, I can't wait to see him pitch in CBP. Could you imagine a Hamels-Santana match in Sept with the division on the line? The two best change ups in the game right there.

Jayson Stark

  (1:58 PM)

I can't wait to see Santana in this setting, period. It's An Event when that guy pitches. I know people think he's really good. But not enough people have seen how great he really is. Santana against Hamels, Smoltz, Zambrano, Peavy, ANYBODY in the NL is going to be tremendous theater.

Mike (Sparta NJ)

Do you think the mets will give santana 6 to 7 yrs

Jayson Stark

  (2:00 PM)

What choice do they have? Buster Olney described it perfectly in his blog today. There's immense pressure on the Mets to get this done. What leverage do they have? There may be some easily vested options in this package, but he'll get six or seven years in some way, shape or form.

Jayson Stark

  (2:00 PM)

Uh-oh. We're down to the end already. So let's take one more.

Danny(Philly)

Bigger Question: Who feels the heat first when one of the teams goes in a struggle- Randolph or Manuel?

Jayson Stark

  (2:02 PM)

Both. But of those two, I think there's more heat on Randolph. His team HAS to win. I don't know that Manuel is quite in that boat. Charlie's support in that front office could conceivably unravel. But Willie was much closer to getting fired last year than Charlie has ever been in Philadelphia, despite all the talk. So I'd say Randolph is the manager most likely to feel the sauna envelope him.

Jayson Stark

  (2:03 PM)

Thanks to everybody who participated. I had more questions on this chat than any one-hour chat I've ever done. Great issues raised by all of you. Thanks. See you back here next week in Hot Stove Heater Land.