Fantasy Sports w/Keith Lipscomb
Send your questions now and join Lipscomb in The Show on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET!
Keith Lipscomb (3:00 PM)
Good afternoon everyone! No huge trades in the NBA today (they already happened). Let's talk fantasy.
I was reading the TMR's draft day plan and saw what he referred to as the "Crazy John Walsh" strategy. Do you buy into this?
Keith Lipscomb (3:03 PM)
For those of you who haven't read it yet, it's good reading, so I hope you do. But what Trey is speaking of is a strategy in which you target the guys you want (not all studs, of course) and do whatever it takes to get them. While I've never truly targeted more than a couple guys I'd really like to get each year, it's certainly a strategy in which you will come away very happy with your team if you succeed, at the very least. If you feel very confident about 10-15 guys, and you think you can get most of them without running out of money and hurting the rest of your team, I say go for it. Maybe I'll have to try this approach one of these days.
Are Gil Meche and Brian Banister good late round picks?
Keith Lipscomb (3:06 PM)
Zach, I'm not sure how deep your league is, but I would definitely take Meche before Bannister. I feel Bannister was very fortunate last season and don't expect him to have the same type of success. Meche, on the other hand, has a better chance of repeating his 2007 performance, in my opinion.
Keith, what are your thoughts on Pujols for this season? In a keeper league, would you rather start with Pujols & T.Hunter or Webb & Magglio?
Keith Lipscomb (3:09 PM)
Can I start with Webb and Pujols instead? Just kidding, Brad. I've dropped Pujols into the late first/early second round on my list for now. I'm not as concerned as some that he'll miss considerable time at some point this season. Who's to say he has any more pain than he had last season? Combining the two players going forward for 3-5 years, I'd take the Hunter/Pujols combo, even though I do like Webb a lot.
Jeff (Charlotte, NC)
Keith, what kind of numbers can Jose Guillen put up in KC? Similar to last year? Also, Berkman or Markasis, choose 1 and why?
Keith Lipscomb (3:11 PM)
Jeff, I really see no reason to believe Guillen will do anything different than he's done when healthy in recent years. He's good for about 25 HR and 95-100 RBI in KC this season. I'm not concerned about the 15-day suspension, either. And I'll take Berkman over Markakis, because I think Berkman gets back to the .300 range in average and should hit at least 10 more homers than Markakis does this season. But it's close.
Keeping Hanley, Grady, Teix and Bedard, need to pick between Atkins and Webb for my 5th keeper, thoughts?
Keith Lipscomb (3:13 PM)
For those of you who show up here every Thursday at 3 ET know, I'm big on hitters over pitchers, but in this case, I'm taking the pitcher (yeah, I said it). I really like Webb and feel you'd have a better chance of getting Atkins in the first round of your draft than getting a stud like Webb back. Not too shabby starting your staff with two big strikeout artists like Bedard and Webb. Your hitting is already off to a great start with that trio as well.
i guess salmons will be one of the dropped players huh?.... please rank these players - charlie v, wright, or warrick...
Keith Lipscomb (3:16 PM)
Not looking good for Salmons having great value without someone getting hurt or in trouble (you know who I'm talking about). Sad, because anyone that had him on a team this season knows how much he did for your squad. I would rank those three: Wright, Warrick, Villanueva, with a big dropoff from second to third. Not enough opportunity there, because the team is committed to Yi still and splitting minutes will help neither. Keep your ears out for a possible 10-player deal between Seattle, Chicago and Cleveland, though...
Chuck (Little Rock)
How do you handle the draft in year 2 and so on of keeper leagues? I feel the team who picked last in season 1 should pick 1st in season 2. Everyone else wants to redraw for random positions.
Keith Lipscomb (3:19 PM)
Well, I always think it's good to get everyone's input and go with the majority, so that you feel like owners are happy with the league they are in. That being said, many leagues I'm in draft in reverse order of standing from the previous season. That's if you're keeping enough players (at least 5, I'd say) where the worst team deserves a shot at the best available player left unprotected. If everyone else wants to redraw, then maybe you should please the masses and/or take a vote on any issues the owners have so at least everyone had a chance to rock the vote.
Is Artest staying put (can I drop Salmons now?)? Also, I need rebounds (among other things)...should I go after someone like Dampier or is J. Foster or even T. Outlaw a better choice all around?
Keith Lipscomb (3:22 PM)
Yeah, it sounds like Artest is sticking in Sacto. I didn't hear any viable deals that were in the cooker this afternoon. And whether you go for Damp/Foster or Outlaw depends on your needs, really. Outlaw is a better all-around choice, because he can help you in more categories. But if you need boards badly, then Dampier should be pretty consistent in the second half, because of the opportunity he'll receive with Diop gone. He'll also offer the most blocks among the three players.
Do you have a specific strategy for drafting when you pick at the turn?
Keith Lipscomb (3:25 PM)
I wouldn't say I have a true strategy, but I do go in with the mindset that I can shape the draft. What I mean by that is, I can start runs on positions -- not on purpose, of course -- and sometimes, that can play into your hands, because you get two guys you covet and others follow by picking from that same position and by the time it gets back to you, you still may see others at positions of need that you covet available to you. I always find it amazing how every draft I'm in plays out differently, though, so it's not something you can predict.
Keith Lipscomb (3:27 PM)
DJ and Rich have suggestions for you Chuck from Little Rock for your keeper league...
DJ (Charlotte NC)
The only way to make a keeper league work, is to increase the price you pay each year to keep guys (i.e. use draft pick 5 rounds earlier than you took the guy the previous year - so obviously all picks 1-5 go back into the hopper each year) Makes the competition much better and the decisions more challenging...
To Chuck in Little Rock. what would are your feelings for season 3 then? on your logic it would go back to the manager who got 1st pick in season 1.... Usually is Previous Years standings. put some options out there and vote. Majority Rules
Keep one - Pujols or Soriano?
Keith Lipscomb (3:29 PM)
Very tough call, as I have them next to each other on my list. Right now, I'm going with Pujols, but that could easily change in the next few weeks.
H. Matsui. Why is he ranked so low? Will he have a good season?
Keith Lipscomb (3:33 PM)
The concern is that his knee still isn't fully healed from offseason surgery, and the team may use him at DH to start the season. That concerns me, because Matsui's a tough guy and I'm not convinced that knee won't give him trouble all season long. If he can get back to 100%, I certainly think he can be the player he was before, so don't let him fall off your radar entirely.
Alex G ( Pullman WA)
Which positions can I put off at the front of the draft and get value later
Keith Lipscomb (3:36 PM)
I think that you can get pretty good value at both 2B and SS this year, so if you can't get the best of the best at those positions, you still could get value from the likes of Uggla, Kendrick, Kent, Weeks, O. Cabrera, Renteria, etc. later on.
Keith Lipscomb (3:38 PM)
Also, l always let others grab the top closers and scrounge up those who have the top gig for lesser teams. Last year, I targeted Valverde in a few leagues and that worked out. It doesn't always work, but saves are way too tough to predict from year to year.
Does Rich Hill improve on last year's numbers or thats what to expect from him
Keith Lipscomb (3:40 PM)
That's a million-dollar question for me, too, Bob. I like Hill and I think he should win more games, but he'll need to keep the ball in the park a little more to bring that ERA down into the 3.60 range. I'm expecting a slight improvement in ERA (maybe 3.75-3.80), but think he can win 13-15 games.
Follow-up to my previous question: My other keepers are A-Rod, Crawford & A-Ram. Does that change your decision on whether to keep Pujols & T.Hunter vs. Webb & Magglio? It's a 12-team, 5x5 H2H league. Thanks again!
Keith Lipscomb (3:42 PM)
Actually, Brad, yes I would rather have a solid starter like Webb with so much other firepower at the plate. Thanks for hollerin' back.
Keith, really quick: In an auction league, I have a chance to keep Bucholz for this year, pretty cheap. Think he'll be in the bigs most of the year, or no?
Keith Lipscomb (3:43 PM)
Brian, yes I do. I'm not counting on Schilling, to be honest with you. And a team as good as the Sox should be able to bring along a talented youngster like Buchholz and deal with the ups and downs they go through.
mike - destruction island, WA
regardless of position, which 2 of these would you keep......granderson, b roberts and furcal? thanks!
Keith Lipscomb (3:46 PM)
I like Granderson and would take Furcal over Roberts, because I expect him to bounce back in his contract year.
Does Hafner bounce back this season? Where do you put him in your 1B rankings? Ahead of Morneau? Thanks!
Keith Lipscomb (3:48 PM)
Hafner's not in my 1B rankings, because I'm not in a league in which he's eligible there. But if he were eligible, I would have him ahead of Hafner. I really expect him to bounce back this season. Maybe not quite on the crazy pace he had going in 2006, but he's too hard of a worker to not improve upon last season's numbers, in my mind.
Gordon (Portland, OR)
Down to my last keeper, Keith. Should I hold on to Matt Kemp or Dustin McGowan?
Keith Lipscomb (3:50 PM)
I really think a lot of Matt Kemp and he has more upside than McGowan, so I'd keep him.
Furcal over B Roberts, really?
Keith Lipscomb (3:51 PM)
Yeah, I know it's not a commonly held view, Trey, but it's just what I expect to happen this season. That's why it's fun to chat about fantasy fortunes. None of us know for sure what will happen, but I like Furcal to bounce back and I don't expect Roberts to steal 50 bases again. Maybe he gets 40, and that's what makes the difference for me.
First round of draft in a keeper league and I need a SS and a 3B. I can take Car. Guillen in 1st and get Beltre in Round 2 or can take Zimmerman in 1 and get Young/Renteria in 2nd - which do you like better?
Keith Lipscomb (3:55 PM)
One thing to keep in mind in making this decision is the fact that Guillen is a 1B now and therefore, won't be eligible at SS next season (at least in most leagues). I like the Guillen/Beltre combo better. I like to have a little pop and neither Young nor Renteria gives me enough to take them with Zimmerman, who I like more than Beltre.
Paul T. (Cincinnati)
We're trying to figure a way to keep teams from tanking later in the year so they get a better draft position next year - we currently do reverse standings order - 10 teams. What about this - the team who finishes 1st gets 1 name in the hat, the team who finishes 2nd gets two, and so on and team who finishes last gets 10 shots at the first draft pick. The 10th place team has more probability of picking first but not absolutely. Think that would work? Or some variation?
Keith Lipscomb (3:57 PM)
That's one way to do it, but keep in mind that if you do that, you should maybe do it like the NBA does it, where you're really only choosing out of a hat for the top 3 picks, because with 55 "names" in the hat, the worst team still only has an 18% chance of getting picked first...maybe tweak it to find percentages you find more agreeable for what that worst team should have at getting the top pick, but you're on the right track.
Keith Lipscomb (3:59 PM)
OK, last one...
Mr. Berry LOVES Wily Mo in 2008 - while Mr. Karabell HATES him (Wily that is...)? Where do come down on Big Wily???
Keith Lipscomb (4:03 PM)
I'm probably somewhere in between, actually. To say I love Wily Mo would mean I think he's going to hit 30 homers -- which he's never done -- and drive in at least 90 runs, which he's also never done. He's definitely talented enough to emerge as the best fantasy option in that outfield, but he's never put up good enough numbers in the past for me to LOVE him. Definitely a sleeper candidate, though, let there be no mistake about that.
Keith Lipscomb (4:03 PM)
Thanks for all of the great questions and I'll see you next week!