Fantasy Sports w/Christopher Harris
Send your questions now and join Harris in The Show on Monday at 11 a.m. ET!
Christopher Harris (11:01 AM)
Hi, everyone. Thanks for coming on this frigid Monday (at least here in the northeast). Let's get right to the questions......
What do you do about Liriano? Where do you see his K's being this year?
Christopher Harris (11:04 AM)
Hi, John. Well, so far I don't hear anything, because Liriano hasn't been able to get back into the country, because of a past DUI problem. The Twins are hopeful he'll be in the U.S. tomorrow, though that's not certain. He's been throwing at the team's Dominican academy, though. Listen, I'm rooting for the kid, and I wrote a piece for the magazine saying I think he's worth taking a chance on. But don't go crazy. In mixed leagues, he's not a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy starter, so don't draft him that way. There's too much uncertainty. He claims not to have pain, and that's good. But returnees from TJ surgery often don't have pain, and often get their velocity back right away. It's location that takes longer. I think Liriano might struggle a little to begin the year, but then hit his stride later. I think he'll wind up with maybe 130 K, because his innings will be well below 200.
John (San Antonio, TX)
Frigid Monday? I think I'd prefer the cold to the projected 90 degrees it's suppose to be here today.
Christopher Harris (11:05 AM)
Heh, John. I'm headed to Arizona on Thursday, so I'm hoping to experience a little warmer weather. I'm a former resident of Austin, and I recall that January and February were my favorite months, weather-wise.
Hey Chris -- if you miss out on Hanley, Reyes and J-Rol in round 1, who are you targeting as your go-to shortstop?
Christopher Harris (11:08 AM)
Jeter's next on my list, but if the mock draft ESPN.com's fantasy experts had last Friday is any indication, it might actually be worth waiting for Troy Tulowitzki. Jeter went 28th overall in that draft, while Tulo went 47th. (Carlos Guillen actually went one spot ahead of Tulo, but I like Tulo better, personally.) I do like Jeter more than Tulo, but not that much more. I think Tulo would be a mighty fine value there....
Am i keeping the right guys? 12 team with 5 keepers. I am thinking of keepiing Wright, Utley, Braun, Fielder, and Sizemore. I would let go of Hafner, Markakis, Webb, Beckett, and Hamels. Am I keeping the right five?
Christopher Harris (11:11 AM)
Hi, Scott. It's painful to give up some of those guys...you sure had a good team last year. The only quibble I might have is Webb over Grady Sizemore. Listen, Sizemore might be awesome, but I do think there are some warning signs about the tradeoff between contact and power in his swing. He's adding steals and that's awesome, and I'm not trying to take anything away from his value. In a pure vacuum, maybe I'd even say he should be kept over Webb. But in this case, you're already keeping four hitters. I don't hate the idea of taking Webb. But I also don't think it would be a "wrong" decision to keep Sizemore instead.
Thoughts on Michael Young this season? Will his numbers continue to slide, or can we expect a rise in his SLG and other numbers? Thanks
Christopher Harris (11:13 AM)
Hi, Emmett. My thoughts on Young are that he might be a little undervalued this year. Very few players are going to give you the at-bat totals, the line-drive rate and the batting average that Young will. He's never going to be a power guy again, but the average should be over .300 once more, and again, with all those ABs, that's all the more valuable. I took him in that mock draft I just mentioned, in the 8th round of a 10-team mixed draft. I think that was a decent bargain.
What do you project for Aramis Ramirez this year? He seems to have an injury every year but still puts up solid #'s.
Christopher Harris (11:15 AM)
Hi, Shaun. Aramis is another guy I took in that draft. I got him 30th overall, which I think is *insane*. You're right, the injuries do tend to bite him, and last summer he had patellar tendinities and fluid in his right wrist. But once that cleared up, he was the same ol' 35-HR guy, and I think that's what we'll see this year.
doug (planet earth)
speaking of this mystery mock draft? are we ever going to see it, or is it as fictional as berry's dating life?
Christopher Harris (11:16 AM)
Hi, Doug. Well, cut us a *little* slack. It happened late Friday. Yes, there'll be something posted about it in the Draft Kit, as soon as someone writes it. I don't think it's me. I don't think.
Carlo (Omaha, NE)
Chris What are your thoughts on Albert Pujols this year? Would you keep him over Lord of the Dance (Pbon)? If he was left in a keeper league after the keepers (starting at 60) would you redraft him at 63, or do you not touch him at all?
Christopher Harris (11:18 AM)
Hi, Carlo. Boy, Pujols is getting scarier and scarier, isn't he? I went on the Sunday morning "Fantasy Insider" show (on ESPN News...tune in, it's the only fantasy show I've seen that people who know something about fantasy don't get pissed off about) and said that knowing what I know at this moment, I'd take Ryan Braun over Pujols. Now, that could change. Maybe Pujols has a great spring and puts all the questions about his health to bed, and then we'd have to re-consider. But at the moment, given where you have to take him to get him, I just don't think he's worth the risk. You can't win a fantasy draft in the first round, but you can lose one, for sure. In the case of your particular rules, though, if you can keep him as the No. 63 overall pick? Yes, I'd keep him. At that point, he's more than worth the risk.
Over/Under on 40 steals for Jacob Ellsbury and Cameron Maybin??
Christopher Harris (11:20 AM)
Hi, Chet. At this moment, before March even starts, I'm going over on Ellsbury and under on Maybin. I really think that when all's said and done, despite what Theo Epstein said last week, Ellsbury will be the starting CF in Boston, and Coco Crisp will be gone. The presence of Bobby Kielty on that roster tells me it's unlikely Crisp and Buchholz will both be there when the season starts. As for Maybin, the Marlins obviously want him to grab that job, and I think he probably will to start the year. But I also think he's going to strike out an *awful* lot to begin his rookie year, and I don't think the Fish will be able to justify using him at the top of their order. Could he still get 40? Yes. But I worry he might struggle a little too much with the bat at first. It's February, though. I'm entitled to change my mind based on what we see this spring.
Jim (Albany NY)
Clay Bucholz inside track for the rookie of the year in the AL? Projections please?
Christopher Harris (11:23 AM)
Hi, Jim. I think Buchholz has No. 1 upside eventually, but I don't think he's the AL Rookie of the Year. I think Evan Longoria will be. I know, Longoria doesn't even definitely have a job yet in the bigs, but hey, neither does Buchholz. The Sox signed Bartolo Colon last night to a minor-league deal, and while I wouldn't touch Colon with a ten-foot hoagie, clearly the Sox are looking for some insurance in case Buchholz proves not ready. Even if he makes the rotation (I think he will, actually), they won't all be no-hitters. In the end, I can see 12 wins, 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, maybe even a K per IP. Very good numbers. Probably not ROY numbers.
Gotta have my keepers in today, Keep 3... Peavy, Webb, Manny, Phillips, Morneau... 12 team 5x5 plus OBP and K/BB, I hate to keep 2 pitchers but my gut says Phillips Webb and Peavy.
Christopher Harris (11:24 AM)
Hi, Jeff. I clearly don't have the nuances of your scoring system completely worked out in my head, so take this with a grain of salt. But yeah, I think you've probably got it right. I still like Manny a little more than Morneau this year, but they both do seem quite a bit below the top three guys. Heck, you're getting to keep two of the NL's three top starters, and that's nothing to sneeze at.
Help me understand why BJ Upton is valued so much higher than Uggla, 32 vs 92 in the rankings. Is this for rotisserie leagues only or H2H points also? Uggla significantly outscored Upton last year in my league. Also, is taking Hamels with the 37th pick or 4th round a stretch?
Christopher Harris (11:27 AM)
Hi, Mark. I agree with you that Upton is overvalued. I argued for him lower; I think the batting average was lucky last year, and he won't hit like that again. But of course, Upton is going to give up on the order of 25 steals (with the upside of even more than that), while Uggla won't get you any. For all league times, I would have Upton ahead of Uggla. You can read my Flordia Marlins team preview I wrote over the weekend for a discussion of why I'm a bit down on Uggla. It's not like he's bad...in fact, 31 homers from a middle infielder is awesome. But that batting average, and low contact rate that underlies it, scares the heck out of me. I worry he hurts you nearly as much in average as he helps you in dingers. So yes, while I agree Upton is high (in my opinion only), I would still have him ahead of Uggla.
Chris - I have a chance to keep Buchholz, but now I'm worried because of the Colon signing. Should I be?
Christopher Harris (11:28 AM)
Hi, Brian. I don't think the Colon signing should change your thinking all that much. Of course, if you have a little while before you have to have your keepers in, you might wait and just see how this plays out. I think Colon is an insurance policy only. He was throwing 88-91 in Winter Ball, and was hit pretty hard; Colon really doesn't have much in the way of other pitchers, so if the fastball is way down there, he's not going to be effective. Colon's deal is a minor-league one, and there's every chance he doesn't make the team. But yeah, I mean, it'd be nuts not to stay tuned....
Bryan (Deerfield Beach, FL.)
I drafted Zimmerman this year, but I?m worried about the wrist injury lingering. So I nabbed Kouzmanoff and Longoria later in my draft. With these 3 options do you think I?ll get enough production from the 3 of them to have a top 12 3b?
Christopher Harris (11:31 AM)
Hi, Bryan. From everything I've heard about Zimmerman, the wrist should be okay. For the uninitiated: he broke a bone in his wrist while swinging working out this winter. And I guess actually technically it wasn't a "broken wrist," it was one of those pesky hamate-bone injuries. I think he's going to be fine. (Check out Stephania Bell's stuff for a way more educated supposition about this than mine.) By himself, honestly, I expect Zimm to be a top-10 3B. The fact that you have the upside of Longoria waiting is heavily in your favor.
Bob (Milwalkee, WI)
Weeks got hot and healthy at the end of last year and he's hitting leadoff in a good line-up. Nice sleeper at a premium position?
Christopher Harris (11:33 AM)
Hi, Bob. It's funny...on the Insider show for two straight weeks, we've taken emails about Rickie Weeks...he's really inspiring a wide variety of opinions. I worry about Weeks, and I don't think at this point he's going to wind up being much of a sleeper. Yes, he's a year further removed from wrist surgery, which is good, and he stole 25 bases last year, which is also good. But the contact rate is worrisome, and it's why hitting in the .230s last year wasn't a big surprise. If you really can get him at a discount, yes, he can be a good sleeper. But honestly, I probably won't take him in the first 10 rounds.
Jim (Cambridge, MA)
Any chance of getting the links to fantasy chats back on the fantasy web pages. I know I'm just lazy in not wanting to go to SportsNation everyday, and I'm sure ESPN wants me to have to go all over their site, but it's a pain. I liked it better last year.
Christopher Harris (11:34 AM)
Hi, Jim. I'm told by our crack editor-in-chief Pierre Becquey that if you go to the main fantasy page, you'll find an entire "Chat" module (I think it's a tab, maybe?), and all our chats are listed there.
I remember reading in a chat the the ESPN fantasy experts were going to be holding their own mock draft. Is this true? Any idea when it will be held?
Christopher Harris (11:35 AM)
Hi, Mike. In fact, our first experts' mock draft was held last Friday. I had the 10th overall pick (last in the first round) and took Ryan Braun, followed by Johan Santana. I was pleased by this. I'm assuming that draft will be part of our draft kit very soon...if not today (maybe today!) then in the next day or two.
Hey Chris, can i get some trade advice in a Dynasty league that we keep our entire starting roster every year. I give up Lincecum/Hughes and Howie Kendrick for BJ Upton. I would still have CC, Verlander, Cain, and one of those 2 and would give me Bruce, Kemp, Rios, Delmon and BJ for my 4 OF spots and DH. I would have to draft aother 5th starter early to fill that spot.
Christopher Harris (11:39 AM)
Hi, Ryan. All right, I'm sort of flying by the seat of my pants here, and obviously don't have time to do a really thorough analysis of your league rules and your keepers, but I can try to answer the central question here, which is: would I trade Kendrick and either Lincecum or Hughes for Upton in a dynasty league. I think the answer is no. I like Upton more than Kendrick, for sure; I think Kendrick is overvalued for this year. But as I mentioned earlier, Upton isn't even a .300 hitter, in my opinion, let alone a .330 or whatever he was for a lot of last year. And I like Lincecum and Hughes both enough, long term, that I wouldn't want to part with them just now. That's my take, but again, I'm not as familiar as you are with the intricacies of what sounds like a really cool league.
Chris: My league is moving from a snake draft to auction this year. We have 21 roster spots 6 of which are bench spots. I was thinking about basically only alocating $1 a piece for each bench spot so that I could mave more money to use on guys I think will start. Is this foolish or something that some managers do with success? Thanks.
Christopher Harris (11:41 AM)
Hi, Ben. I wouldn't be quite so dogmatic about *definitively* only allocated a buck per bench guy. In auctions, as you know, sometimes there are awesome youngster values to be had for $2 or $3...guys you don't want to start immediately, but who have massive upside and might wind up being Ryan-Braun-esque bargains later in the year. It's really nice to be one of the only ones with any money above the minimum left at the end of an auction, and have someone say "Ryan Braun, $1" and be able to swoop in and say "Ryan Braun $2" and be unchallenged. The theory of low dollars for bench guys is a good one...I just wouldn't give yourself no wiggle room.
.275/25/85 too optomistic for Joey Votto this season?
Christopher Harris (11:43 AM)
Hi, Chet. It's maybe a little optimistic. Here's the thing...even though Dusty Baker has said all the right stuff about how he'll use Votto and Scott Hatteberg, it's February. I'm worried that when push comes to shove and Votto struggles for a couple weeks, Dusty will go back to his veterans as he always seems to do. With Votto, I think it's all about at-bats. If you can convince yourself that he's going to get 500? Those numbers sound pretty good to me (though the average might be high). But if he gets 330? Those projections are probably high.
I think you missed part 2 of Marks question earlier. Is taking Hamels in the 4th round a stretch or about right for him? Would you rather have someone like Lackey or Verlander?
Christopher Harris (11:45 AM)
Hi, Kyle. Hamels in the late fourth or early fifth isn't a stretch; he went No. 41 overall in our mock draft last Friday. I know that in our draft kit, we have Hamels rated above both Lackey and Verlander, but if I were given the choice, I think I'd probably take Verlander (then Hamels, then Lackey, though there's obviously tons to love about all three guys). I think Verlander's going to have a big year.
2nd round- already drafted Wright but I have 3 UTL spots if available who would you take, Ortiz, Braun, Sizemore..?
Christopher Harris (11:46 AM)
Hi, Ryan. I'd take Braun. I've clearly drunk the Kool-Aid.
Baseball keeper question: I need to keep 3 out of 5 between David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Lee, Justin Morneau, and Erik Bedard. Do you think they are ranked in the correct order? We don't give up draft position for our keepers. I have the 8th pick in our 12-team snake draft for a head-to-head weekly points league. Also, I get to keep 2 rookies (rookie tags). My eligible rookie keepers are: (hitters have to meet the following criteria for rookie status - cannot have more than 800 at bats in career) Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Delmon Young, Josh Hamilton, Kelly Johnson, Tim Lincecum, John Maine, and Brian Bannister (pitchers have to meet the following criteria for rookie status - cannot have more than 350 Innings pitched AND cannot have more than 100 game appearances). Which 2 "rookies" are the best keeper candidates? Thanks
Christopher Harris (11:49 AM)
Hi, Dan. Phew. I think there are two questions there. First, the overall keepers: clearly Wright and Hanley, in some order, are must-keeps here. The third guy? Yeah, I'd probably go Lee. I think Bedard will have a big year in Seattle, but I'd be concerned enough about his health to put the safer Lee above him. (I would put Bedard over Morneau, though.) As for the "rookies" (which, as you note, aren't really rookies), for this year I like Hamilton best of the hitters you mention, and Maine best of the pitchers you mention.
Jeff (Atlanta, GA)
hey chris. hope to get this one in under the gun. standard 5X5 head to head league. i need to decide on my 4 keepers. which of these would you keep: hanley, prince, vlad, morneau, granderson, braun? thanks
Christopher Harris (11:50 AM)
Hi, Jeff. Hanley, Braun, Fielder and Guerrero, for me.
Jeff (Newton, NJ)
Chris, keeper question. I need 4 of Bedard, Webb, Hafner, Jose Reyes, Manny, Lackey, KROD, Corey Hart. Thanks
Christopher Harris (11:51 AM)
Hi, Jeff. Reyes, Webb, Bedard...and the fourth one is tougher. I think I'd go Lackey, even though that does give you three starters....
Patrick (Seattle, WA)
Christopher, I run into the same problem in my draft every year. The owners in my league adore starting pitching, drafting guys like Tom Glavine while offensive guys like Hideki Matsui are still on the board. Naturally, I stock up on hitting as long as I can, but at what point do I have to deal with the problem? Should I be drafting bench hitters with my rotation half-filled, and hope to make trades? Or do I bite the bullet and draft Twins pitchers?
Christopher Harris (11:53 AM)
Hi, Patrick. I like the strategy of continuing to take hitters who should be starting, provided past experience has taught you that your league-mates eventually realize the error of their ways, and will actually do trades with you. Unfortunately, if this is a league where no one will admit their hitting stinks and thus won't trade, you might need to bite the bullet and take a couple pitchers where you don't think they're the best value on the board. But overall, I like the strategy of taking glaringly best-available players without heed to position, and worrying about it later in trades.
Amy (Blaine, MN)
Chris was wondering for some advice on a 12 man 5 keeper league my boyfriend dragged me into. Currently I have V-Mart, Brian Roberts, Morneau, Aramis Rameriez, Markakis, Sizemore, Webb, and CC Sabathia. I have to keep 2 pitchers, 2 offense and one of my choice. Obviously I'm keeping Webb and CC. Am having a hard time deciding the others though. If you could give some quick hits on what I should do that would be really fantastic. I'd love to finish in the winners bracket this year and throw it in my boyfriend's friends' faces!!!
Christopher Harris (11:55 AM)
Hi, Amy. Always crush the boyfriend's and the boyfriend's friends' souls, wherever possible. On the hitting side, I think your two are Aramis and Sizemore. The flex guy? I think Markakis. Big upside there. I think there's an argument to be made for Roberts or Morneau as well, but I think I'd try Markakis.
last keeper: gorzy or snell
Christopher Harris (11:55 AM)
Hi, Brian. I like Snell quite a bit more.
Where did Granderson and Rios go in your expert's draft? Which do you prefer?
Christopher Harris (11:57 AM)
HI, Tarr. Granderson went *alarmingly* high to A.J. Mass, at No. 24 overall. That was one of the most shocking picks of the early rounds. I took Rios with the last pick in the fifth, at No. 50 overall. I have them rated close to one another; I can see the argument for Granderson, but *not* in the third round. His contact-rate problems mean he could be in for a market correction, but man, what a year last year. I think in a total vacuum, I might take Rios.
do you think kemp will be a full timer or will torre platoon him?
Christopher Harris (11:57 AM)
Hi, Jim. I think he's a full-timer. At this point, it's just a guess, but I'm running with it. I took Kemp 51st overall in that experts' draft, my biggest reach of the day.
Thoughts on Vernon Wells? Are you seeing a big bounce back and where do you think he goes?
Christopher Harris (11:58 AM)
Wells is yet another guy I took in that Friday draft. I got him with the last pick of the 9th round, and I felt that was excellent value. I do expect a bounce back...the down year in '07 was entirely due to a torn labrum, and he's had surgery and is healthy. I think he winds up being a significant fantasy contributor.
Manny or Magglio?
Christopher Harris (11:58 AM)
Is David Ortiz healthy this year? I recently got him in the 3rd round and thought it was a steal even if he only gives me last years totals when he wasn't 100%. Is .315/40/130 out of the question?
Christopher Harris (12:00 PM)
Hi, Jeff. Yeah, Big Papi had knee surgery to repair what ailed him last year. I'm not sure of the 40 HR, but the rest of your projection sounds good to me. Ortiz went 22nd overall in that mock I've been referencing (just to remind everyone, it was a 10-team mixed draft), which I thought was pretty good value. So I think you got...pretty good value.
what round did Nick Swisher go in the draft? Can I expect him to be there with my 9th or 10th round pick? Is that stretching, too early?
Christopher Harris (12:01 PM)
Hi, BJ. Swisher went with the first pick in the 14th round. I think 9th or 10th is too early, to be honest. You're in the Windy City, so maybe you'll get folks in your league more excited about him, but I always worry about the low contact rate. His batting average got a little better last year, but he's still a .240 waiting to happen, IMO, and I also worry playing center might be too much for him. Not that I don't like him, but I probably wouldn't take him that high.
brad (harrisburg, pa)
plain and simple: your thoughts on two preseason hot topics, Kazmir and King Felix? do you see injury risk as their biggest negative factor?
Christopher Harris (12:03 PM)
Hi, Brad. Yeah, I think you'd have to say injury risks are the main limiting factors with Felix. Stephania Bell maintains that he's one of the guys she's worried most about, that his arm could just go kablooey. As for Kaz, there are concerns, but I'd say the main reason most are turned off by him is his control. Me, I'm really high on him this year. He was awesome in the second half of '07 after he made some adjustments, and I think he could win his second straight AL strikeout title. (That's right, he topped some guy named Johan last year.)
Erik Bedard (WA)
When did Berry pick me?
Christopher Harris (12:03 PM)
Alas, Berry wasn't actually in the draft. He was away at a wedding. (Not his own.) Bedard wound up going 27th overall, with lots of comments that there's no way he would've lasted that long had Berry been around.
Have you read AJ's chats? That pick is not a shock if you have.
Christopher Harris (12:04 PM)
You're right, Adam. AJ hasn't made any secret of his Granderson love. Still, I have to admit, sitting there I was pretty darned surprised to see him going *that* high. At least AJ walked the walk, right?
Will I have any value this year if I ever sign?
Christopher Harris (12:05 PM)
Boy, I don't know. I mean, if you're desperate for homers, could Bonds provide a few? Sure. He's going to deserve to be drafted if he signs. I just think he won't sign. The negative p.r. would be huge.
Missed the big name 1B.. looks deep though. Who do you suggest I go after in round 10-15?
Christopher Harris (12:06 PM)
Hi, Grant. First base is deep, so there's no shame in eschewing that position early if the picks don't fall right. I took Carlos Delgado with the last pick in the 15th round, and while I'm not sold that he'll bounce back entirely, he should hit me some homers, anyway. James Loney and Ryan Garko would be two other names I'd probably have taken in the range you're talking about.
Mike Cameron (Rehab)
How much will a 25 game suspension affect my value?
Christopher Harris (12:07 PM)
It affects it, no question. Cameron was sort of a forgotten man in that draft I've been discussing, and didn't go until the 25th round (that's the last round). I think he should go higher than that, because let's face it, it's one month. But it affects it, no question.
Is it me or is Adam Dunn a great value in the 8th-9th rd? He never fails to hit 40 long balls.
Christopher Harris (12:09 PM)
Hi, Jim. Dunn went in the sixth of our experts draft Friday, so yeah, I'd say in the 8th or 9th he's good value. I usually don't draft him, because he hurts your average quite a bit, and I figure you can find homers other places, especially where Dunn plays. But especially if you're in an OBP league, he can be very undervalued.
Christopher Harris (12:09 PM)
All right, gang. This chat room will disintegrate on us in a few moments, so I'd better wrap things up with one more......
Ted (Londonderry, NH)
Chris, your thoughts on Rich Hill v. Cole Hamels? Thanks
Christopher Harris (12:10 PM)
My thoughts are that while I like Hill a lot, he's still too inconsistent and too homer-prone to be considered over Hamels. As I say, I really do like Hill. He had a very underrated season last year. But Hamels has it in him to be an elite K guy, an elite groundball guy. He'd be my choice. (And yes, I would take Hill before I'd take Carlos Zambrano, one of my quirkier contentions of the spring so far....)
Christopher Harris (12:11 PM)
All right everyone. Thanks very much for coming. I'm sorry I can't get to every question, but honestly, there are an *awful* lot of them. I promise to try and do better the next time. And I'm very grateful for your participation and your readership...I know I wouldn't get to do this job without your support, and I continue to be extremely appreciative. Thanks, and be on the lookout for my Boston Red Sox team preview this weekend.....
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