Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Busy day, with all these spring games underway ... let's get right to your questions!

kevin (zanesville Ohio)

Is Brandon Phillips the highest rated 2nd baseman in the N L and can he reach the 30-30 club?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Don't forget Chase Utley! But sure, I'd say Phillips ranks among the game's five best candidates for 30/30. Just don't count on a high batting average.

Tom W (San Francisco, CA)

Tristan, I read on mlbprospectnews.com that Colby Rasmus could be starting at center field as early as this summer. Do you think be could be fantasy relevant this year, especially in a deep league (like mine)?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Oh yes. He brings a respectable level of power and speed, and I wouldn't say Rasmus is a lock to begin the year in the minors; he might be the Opening Day center fielder! I'm not as big on him as some, but he needs to be watched closely. If he makes the team, while batting average should be a problem, he could be a sneaky 20/15 guy.

Jack (Pitt)

I have the 3rd pick in the draft and was offered the 12th pick and a 3rd rounder for the 3rd pick and a 5th rounder. What's the right call?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Seems fair enough to me, though to note, if I've done my math right here, that third rounder you're getting is the 36th pick overall, and the fifth rounder is the 51st pick overall. So it's a 15-spot boost for a nine-spot drop in the first round. To me, that might not be enough, though I do think the first round is largely a matter of opinion, how much you think the third-best player is over the 12th-best. Fair, but I don't call it overwhelming as an offer.

Marc (Philly)

Ellsbury or Coco Crisp as the opening day CF in Boston?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

I really think it SHOULD be Jacoby Ellsbury, and I'm going to make that bold call if only because I really believe in him. Just the way I see it.

Mike (Scottsdale)

Tristan - P categories of W,L,CG,K,Sv,ERA and WHIP in a H2H league - How would you set up your staff (SPvsRP/CP)? Managers usually go 8 sp and 2 CP - is this best use?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

I'd say that's about right. I might even go as far as seven starters, three closers, though it really depends what's on your roster. I bet most teams will have a solid five starters in their lineup every week, two closers, too, and then you shuffle in the matchups with your other three spots. That's how I run those things.

GOB

Tristan, I am in a 12 team AL only keeper. Who is going to be the best source of cheap SB(most AB) out of Willits, J. Owens, and Gaithright. Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Most at-bats? Hmmm, gotta be Reggie Willits or Jerry Owens, and while Owens might have a slight better chance at the at-bats since Ozzie Guillen seems to love him from the leadoff spot, I do think Willits is your better overall fantasy choice. I like the on-base/speed combo types.

Mark, Albany NY

If you wait on a SS, is Yunel Escobar a good sleeper to target late?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Sure, though owning him means you're solid in batting average but don't get a lot else. Well, runs scored perhaps, since it appears he'll bat second, but if he goes 10/10 in power and speed, I'd call that a decent year for him.

Marty (Hollywood, FL)

Tristan, hate to keep asking but Figgins for a 7 vs Weeks for a 23 is killing me!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Understandably so, as those are both very fair prices. I do believe Rickie Weeks will be healthy enough to at least be a 20/20 man, with plenty of upside from there, and he's the better value compared to the price in rounds. Save those early picks!

matt (omaha)

Speaking of steals, I think Michael Bourn will swipe 60 this season. Am I crazy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

If only because Bourn shouldn't -- note SHOULDN'T -- be playing against left-handers, and stolen bases is a quantitative category, reliant on playing time. That said, he's absolutely a sleeper. I'll say 40 easy, though, and upside to your number in the absolute best-case scenario.

J (OH)

McCann for Pence? Fair?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Sure. For this year, I'd actually probably rather have Brian McCann, but in no way do I see that as a deal slanted much more one side than the other. All gut instinct talking there.

Rick (NY)

Better for this year: Ken Griffey or Matt Kemp?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Even with my concerns about Kemp not getting everyday at-bats -- I do think he'll get close, though, at least 450 -- I can't pass on him for Griffey. No way.

James, HELP!

Need advice on choice of draft order. We get to choose where we pick. Its a 12 team, 5x5, and we start 13 hitters. where you would pick and why? IM thinking #3 so i can get one of the top SS and get rios in round #3 (hope to get texeria in round 2). Thoughts? THANK YOU!!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

You know, I actually had a league like that were you got to pick your draft position (before it shifted to auction), though we drew names to see who picked his spot first. I don't know how yours shakes that out, what if everyone wants the No. 1 pick? Really, I don't think draft position matters all that much. Pretty much if you have one guy you want, I'd likely take a draft position two spots or so ahead of where he should be selected (go by average draft position). For me, I'm kind of indifferent, though I'd probably prefer to be in the middle, say, fifth.

Lee (Dallas, TX)

Tristan, I've got an hour to make my pick in a keeper points league (single=1, double=2, triple=3, homer=4, RBIs and runs = 1, steal=2, K= -1) and need an OF. Soriano, Ichiro, or Beltran?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

I haven't run the numbers based on that system, but having played in similar formats, from my experience I'm going to say Carlos Beltran is probably your best bet there. All very good options, though.

Justin (Queens)

I'm on the clock...in a standard H-H 5x5, who would you take, Holliday, Cabrera, Utley or Santana? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

I'd take Matt Holliday. All are fine picks, I just rank him highest.

Carlo (Omaha,NE)

2 of your collegues answered this question differently. Settle this PLEASE! 12 team 5 man (2offense2pitch1flex) keeper. Am keeping Utley Braun Santana Hamels. Who from Pujols Pbon Chone R.Hill and WHY??? I have 3rd pick after the keepers, would you use that to redraft Pujols or do you stay away?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

See, that's the fun part of all this, we're here to give you our opinions, but the point of the matter is to take the feedback we provide and make your own, educated decision. I'm not out to be a "tiebreaker" for you, I'll just tell you my strategy ... I'd keep Albert Pujols, especially if it means you can keep him in future seasons, too. I just don't rank the other guys anywhere near what he can provide when healthy, and I just can't get complete panicked about him right now, especially not when you have four other megastud keepers. I think you'll be fine, and have the highest upside of the bunch with Albert. Just my take, you go for the guy with the best ability to dominate your format, and don't fret too much about minor risks. Frankly, I think if you want to worry about Pujols, well, I'll tell you, I have similar health worries about Cole Hamels. Seriously. (And that's not meant to panic Hamels owners, it's meant to say I think of him as a 25-27 start guy, not a full 33.)

Mike(CT)

Derek Lee @33 seems high Tristan. He's really only had that one good year and the career .281 avg is telling. Why are you so high on him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Last year was a bad year? Hmmm, I didn't think it was. Plus, he had a nice power boost after the All-Star break in 2007, a sign, at least to me, that he's getting a little closer to his old self, or at least the one from that monster career year of his. Maybe I rank him a little too high, but I'm absolutely a believer.

Ethan (Memphis)

Good morning, is kelly johnson a decent 2b/ss option or could you recommend a couple decent options that might be available or would probably be undervalued to trade for? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

I think he'd be a fine choice for that, especially as the leadoff man in the Atlanta lineup. Want some other underrated middle-infield bargains? I like Aaron Hill, Mark Ellis and Khalil Greene, too.

Paulie (Philly)

If I end up drafting Chipper Jones, what caliber backup should I draft to cover for Chipper's highly probably DL stint?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

I'd probably look to stash a late-round, high-upside type and merely spend the season researching the position to find a nice value even if the guy you select doesn't pan out. For instance, I might grab a Chad Tracy, Andy LaRoche or Chase Headley and see if one works out. If not, there should be something worthwhile to handcuff to Chipper during the season. Not that I think you should really go nuts finding that guy.

Thaddeus (Denver)

In a recent mock draft, i was ridiculed for taking Cory Hart with the 70th pick and Liriano with the 91st pick of a ten-team draft. I thought those two actually provided pretty good value there considering Hart rounded out my outfield and Liriano was my second start. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Hey, you'll be laughing when Corey Hart provides better value even than that! I have him ranked around the No. 50 overall range; I'm absolutely a believer. As for Francisco Liriano, I do think you took him a little early, but the reports on him are glowing. I think you can afford the occasional reach if you really like the guy, though I have him going a few rounds later than that.

dan(Minn)

better keeper: Delmon Young or Josh Hamilton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

If it's a long-term keeper format, I want Young. Come to think of it, I want Young either way.

Thomas (Cleveland)

I'm in a 5x5 H2H Keeper. I can keep 5 players and already have chosen Reyes for Braun. Who would you take for the last 3 between: Webb, Bedard, Pence, Hart, A. Gonzalez.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

I couldn't let Brandon Webb or Erik Bedard go, even if it's going to lock in two pitchers for your five spots. Too valuable, both top-tier arms. Then I'd go Corey Hart.

Nate, Wa

What's your thoughts on Shane Victorino this year? Is he being drafted too low?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

I have Shane Victorino lurking just outside of my top 100, and it's not meant as a knock on his talent, it's more that I'm trying to remind myself that he's no guarantee to play the full 162 games this season. He had health issues last year, so I can't quite go ALL in on him. That said, I do believe in the kid, a nice steals bet once you get around to that 100th-overall stage of a mixed draft. I really wanted to get him in our mock and just missed out.

Mike - Chicago

Think Matt Diaz wins the job and if so what kind of numbers should we get from him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I'm choosing the phrase again: He SHOULD win it. WILL he? Maybe not; a Diaz/Brandon Jones platoon sure seems in the cards to me. I do believe Diaz plays a similar amount of time to 2007, and I'll put him in the .300-.305 batting average range, say, 15 homers. A good NL-only pick, perhaps fringe mixed. Don't go nuts, though, the Braves really seem to have him locked in as a lefty killer who sits against tough righties.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

plain and simple: the most important aspect of winning a H2H league is ______________?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

If it's categorical, the answer is "balance." No reaching, no stacking the deck or ignoring one area, no gambling on the high-risk/high-reward guys, boost up the category fillers. If it's points-based, the answer is "not overrating categories." I can't tell you how many times I see people just pick a speedster or a closer and ignore the fact that maybe their scoring system devalues a speedster such that a guy in a Rotisserie league you might think is five rounds lower is actually better than that speedy guy!

Hank (Buffalo, NY)

There is a lot of love for Corey Hart amongst the ESPN experts. What is the difference between him and Pence? Are they very different?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Well, for me, it's that it wouldn't shock me at all if they're identical in every way except for one: Hart will steal 10 more bases. Seriously, I look at my projections and I have them almost identical, but Hart's exactly 10 steals ahead.

Chris (Bloomfield, NJ)

Points league with keepers: Trade Beltran and CYoung(SD), get Lackey and Markakis. Starters need to win to have value in this league, so is the better win potential of Lackey enough to warrant the OF downgrade?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Don't overvalue win potential. Tim Lincecum is going to prove that to you this year, he'll pitch great but disappoint in wins. Just saying, wins can be such a fluky category sometimes. That said, in terms of raw value, I say make the deal. I'm a big Nick Markakis fan, I have him within a reasonable range of Carlos Beltran, but I without question have John Lackey further ahead of Chris Young than there is in the outfielder gap.

Jim (Fl)

Garza or McGowan?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Dustin McGowan. Don't be fooled by that ERA last year; he pitched much better than the raw numbers indicate.

Sam (Chicago)

Please give me a fool-proof method to winning a 12 category H2H league....

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

If I could give anyone a "fool-proof method" for winning any game based even partly in chance, I'd have won the lottery long ago...

Phillip (Rodgers WV)

I have the next pick and need a closer. Both Jenks and Rivera are on the board for about the same price. Who do I take?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

There are going to be people out there who call me crazy for thinking this is a serious, legitimate question, but it absolutely is. And I'll tell you, maybe this surprises you, but I'd actually prefer Bobby Jenks. It's by a hair, but that's your answer. Love that second half of his, he showed me a lot in terms of his development.

Jack (NYC)

Trist, what 3 would you keep between hafner, atkins, putz and guillen? TY.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

I don't know the rest of your keeper details, but I can say that I don't overvalue saves. They can be built at the draft table or during the season, and that has me saying keep the three hitters. Way too talented to let go.

Sam (Chicago)

How about one insider tip than.....

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Check the above question, didn't mean to come across like ignoring the question. But I can tell you this: You absolutely must be committed 100 percent, every day of the year, if you want to win ANY league. So my best advice, as general as it is, is "be the best owner you can be."

Adrian (Libertyville IL)

How bad is Kazmir's injury. And should I pick up a backup like Silva just in case?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

I'm not ready to freak out, especially as I'm very impressed with the kid that he is committed to getting himself healthy in time for Opening Day. If you can add Carlos Silva as some insurance to begin the year, sure, do it, but in no way am I suggesting you enter panic mode.

Joe (Billings, MT)

Tristan, sell me on Corey Hart. I'm not buying given his rise from fantasy obscurity and decent (not great) stats when excluding June from his totals.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

OK, well, briefly, I'm a big fan of the prospect who got decent raves but backed them up with stellar minor league numbers. Despite being a big guy, Hart was a vastly underrated baserunner; he was like a 25-steal guy every year. That shows me a complete package of skills, so I think of him as a kid smart enough to swipe 20-plus, easy. And if we want to take the "one-month wonder" argument to heart, well, I'm sorry Hideki Matsui fans, but he fits the class too. Hart's a category filler, the type of player I love, and by the way, for all the "poor play" outside of June, he did bat .323 with eight homers after Aug. 1. Nothing wrong with that.

Britt (New Zealand)

Is Victor Martinez worth keeping? Other options are prospects or trading for an Aramis Ramirez type. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Absolutely. He's a bona fide keeper stud.

Jim (Philly)

How do you think Iguchi will fare with SD and is Matzui a risk for 2b?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

I don't believe all that much in Tadahito Iguchi, I think he's just under the cut of middle-infield worthy in mixed leagues. Think NL-only value, not a lot of upside. As for Kaz Matsui, I'm not at all a fan. Overrated based on last year's run, and a platoon specialist with a strong partner for that in Mark Loretta. I just think he'll be overpriced, and I have him well outside my top 10 second basemen.

Tim (NYC)

Hey Tristan: Do you believe in the never pay for saves theory. I'm thinking of cutting Valverde and Saito to keep Victorino and D Magowan. Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I do not. But I DO believe in the "never OVERPAY for saves" theory. Saves have value, they're just one of the categories that tend to be overdrafted the most. I think, in general, people are getting a little smarter about drafting them each year that passes, but I continue to remind those who have yet to catch on. As for your question, I'd probably keep Takashi Saito and Shane Victorino; they're strong enough in saves and steals that they should be retained.

Eric (Orlando)

Which SP would you take to round out your staff of a 12-team 25 round draft? Kendrick or Owings?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Micah Owings, not that I can put any guarantees on either sticking on your roster for long. Kyle Kendrick has that ground-ball tendency I like, but the low K rate and the ballpark scare me.

Jenny (Alberta)

Tristan, please stop selling people on Corey Hart... if you keep hyping him, how am I supposed to catch him at a bargain?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Ha! Well said, Jenny. Um, everyone, Corey Hart is terrible! (OK, Jenny's league mates, at least, I direct that at you...)

Tiger (Providence, RI)

You keep mentioning "category fillers" -- who are the best? Who are slept on?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Well, you know all about the David Wright, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore types. It's the guys well above average in homers, steals, RBIs, etc. ... but sleepers? Hmmm. The aforementioned Victorino, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, maybe even guys like Jeremy Hermida, Nate McLouth and Randy Winn.

Bob (Howell)

BJ Upton or Vlad as your first outfielder in a 12 team 5x5?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Vladimir Guerrero. But it's close. If I knew that Upton would be fine in batting average, believe me, I'd leap at the chance to get him first.

Mike (NC)

What do you expect for Gordon and Fields?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Decent step forward for Alex Gordon, and I do like him better of the two. Maybe a .270 batting average, 20 homers, 12-15 steals, with upside for more, certainly. Wouldn't shock me if he's a second-half wonder, by the way. As for Josh Fields, I'm a fan, I think he's bargain power, 30-homer ability, and might even smartly swipe double-digit bags. Of course, be prepared for a drain on your team batting average. He WILL do that.

Pam (Scranton,PA)

Good Pujols insurance policy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

Are there really such things as "good insurance policies" for first-round picks? But if you're thinking first base sleepers, I do like Casey Kotchman, Conor Jackson and Daric Barton.

Bill (Chicago)

What are your projections for Fukudome and where do you have him ranked overall? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Sorry to say I'm simply not a Kosuke Fukudome fan. I really think of him as a straight split in between maybe a Johnny Damon/Shane Victorino and Melky Cabrera. Probably closer to the former, granted, but I'm not going nuts is what I'm saying. My projection: .275-15-60-12. Runs scored should be a good category if he bats second, which is where I think he should.

Tony (NJ)

Kelvim Escobar....buyer beware? Or just some needed rest?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Buyer beware, absolutely buyer beware. Hate shoulder issues.

Jace (Buffalo)

Tristan: With good catchers at a premium would you keep a #2 like G. Soto over say Magowan or or C Guillen?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

For as much as I like Geovany Soto, no, there's no chance I'd do that. I'd almost never, ever keep two catchers, if I keep any at all. As for the other two, I like Carlos Guillen better.

Justin (Londonderry,NH)

Best low round high upside closer? Big Brian Wilson guy, went to HS with him...has that Papelbon mentality, but have been seeing some hating on him. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

Don't let yourself overrate a guy because he plays for your favorite team or because you went to school with him. I understand the fandom, but I don't advise you bring any of those factors to the draft table. I do like Wilson as a late sleeper, I just don't like that team at all. It'll limit his saves, maybe he gets 25-30 in the best-case scenario, and WHIP could be a little shaky. In other words, second- to third-tier closer, no more. But that's still quite good.

Jim (Albany NY)

Tristan, Do you think Jason Nix could be a viable 2nd baseman this year, say .270 14hr 60 rbi's 20sb attainable? thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

I doubt it. Bad minor league stats, especially in hitter-friendly environments, have a way of scaring me. That said, check out my camp notebook today, it seems Nix is the favorite for that job. Marcus Giles lovers beware!

Adrian (Libertyville IL)

How do you think the jump to the AL will be handled by Miggy and Dontrele?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I think it'll be easier on Miguel Cabrera than it will Dontrelle Willis. Though, being on a winning team could inject some life into the pitcher, too. They should both be fine.

Brian (Houston)

Since we can only see the ESPN's staff's cumulative projections, what are your personal projections for Hart?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

.290-28-105-22.

Dom (MA)

Ian Kennedy.....projection?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

More innings than you think, but not necessarily enough to make him a strong bet outside of deeper leagues (think more AL-only). Let's say 100-125 innings -- assuming he makes the team as I believe he will -- a 3.75 ERA, 1.25-1.30 WHIP, not a ton of K's. And I don't see HUGE upside in him as I do Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain.

Ethan (Memphis)

how much of a difference in value between crawford and sizemore in your book?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Minimal. Five spots in a mixed draft at best.

sage(chicago)

Which 3 would you keep with $260 cap and 12 teams? Webb $17,Hamels $14, Lincecom $1, C.Pena $1,Atkins $12,B.Roberts $15, Side note: the top 4 3b are already kept...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

Hmmm. I can't let Tim Lincecum or Carlos Pena go for those prices. I'm going to say Brandon Webb is probably your next best bet there, though Garrett Atkins is a fine price too. Still, I'm thinking Webb.

Brian (San Francisc0=o)

TRADE HELP - In my NL-only dynasty league I was offered Matt Holliday for Ryan Braun and Adam LaRoche. Is this a good move for the long-term? Braun could be better than Holliday in the next few years.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Sure could, but that's a pretty fair offer. All depends how close you think Braun is to Holliday right now. Me, I'd probably just stand pat.

Nate, Wa

Where do you think Crawford should be drafted in a 12-team mixed league - early 2nd round?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

I've got him at the very end of the first round or very early in the second. Right around 12th overall.

Francisco (Managua, Nicaragua)

Tristan, Hafner with 1B eligibility vs. Morneau? Lee?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Travis Hafner over Justin Morneau, but Derrek Lee over both.

Abe (Boston)

Akinori Iwamura was very nice when healthy last year.. Any chance he makes .300/20/100/15? If so, great steal late late?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

That's an awfully generous projection, Abe, though I will say that Iwamura doesn't make a poor corner-infield pick late. I just don't think he's as good in homers or steals as you do.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Good news: We're back in the afternoon again to chat with you, so see you then! Take care...