Eric Karabell

  (11:01 AM)

Hello everyone and welcome to another fantasy sports chat session... lots to get to today. A certain Hall of Fame QB retired Tuesday. That's big news. Spring training has started. So ... any questions?

Nick (Greenwich, CT)

Hey Eric! What's your number one fantasy rule when it comes to Baseball?

Eric Karabell

  (11:02 AM)

Enjoy yourself. It's a game, both baseball and fantasy. I have strategy things I like to follow, but if I'm not enjoying the league or the game, then what's the point? There are enough things in life to sweat about...

Scott, IA

Hey Eric what are you projections for the Upton brothers for this year and the future? I have both in a 12 team dynasty league.

Eric Karabell

  (11:04 AM)

I think the older one, B.J., is on his way to a 25/25 season, but I do not expect him to bat .300, let's put it that way. Still, a great player when you throw in 2B eligibility. As for Justin Upton, I don't think he's ready. I project some time in the minor leagues and a low batting average. In 2 years, watch out.

joseph baltimore

Eric, Keeper total points league just got offered David Wright for Peavy i have to accept right?

Eric Karabell

  (11:05 AM)

No matter the format of the league, yes, you have to accept, fast.

Todd, San Diego

Eric, Is anyone more undervalued than Jeremy Hermida? ESPN has him 49th among OF's, but I feel a year like Markakis' 2007 is very much in reach for him.

Eric Karabell

  (11:06 AM)

I concur, especially since the Marlins might bat Hermida No. 3 in the order, a perfect spot for him to get to 25-100. He might not run very much, but then again, there's no guarantee Markakis is going to do that again. Hermida is a steal there.

Brian (Boston)

Eric, I just drafted my team last night and my draft did not go as planned. Please tell me that my young outfield of Cory Hart, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton can get by.

Eric Karabell

  (11:07 AM)

Well, that's not bad, but it's not the safest outfield you could put together. I think Hart is a 25/25 option, and Hamilton will hit 30 home runs, so no worries there. Kemp will play, but I'd project about 20-80-15 for now. Upton could be terrific, mainly in steals, but I think he'll struggle initially.

Jim (Albany NY)

Hello Eric, Do you think Felipe Lopez will be a useful fantasy contributor this year? .270 10hr's 80 runs 70 rbis 30 steals attainable?? thanks

Eric Karabell

  (11:09 AM)

I'd probably take the under on all those numbers, but yes, they are attainable. He has to get into the lineup first. For now he's the backup middle infielder to Guzman and Belliard, as hard as that is to comprehend. I don't think Lopez has power, but he can steal 30 bases if he plays 150 games. Not a bad risk late.

Fresh Prince from Philly

Hello Eric, Could name a few $1 pitchers you would target in a 15 team league.

Eric Karabell

  (11:11 AM)

Sure, Prince. Or should I call you Fresh? How about Jon Lieber or Ryan Dempster? Randy Wolf or Mark Prior? Kenny Rogers or Jeff Suppan? Chad Gaudin or Braden Looper? I could do this for another hour. Plenty of pitching out there in deep leagues.

Patrick (Seattle, WA)

Eric, I usually hate drafting closers in my points league, but 200 players are off the board and there are some tempting alternatives. Should I gamble on Reyes, Ryan, Accardo, or CJ Wilson?

Eric Karabell

  (11:12 AM)

I would gamble on BJ Ryan first, because signs point to him being ready sometime in April. Get him and Accardo, you've got Toronto's saves. Texas could go in a number of directions, but Wilson might be the leading contender for now. Tough to tell.

Alan(Charlotte)

How will Favre's retirement effect a guy like Ryan Grant fantasy-wise?

Eric Karabell

  (11:14 AM)

I don't think it helps, but that is not really a slight on Aaron Rodgers. Some people took my Favre spin column from Tuesday morning as a Packers hater thing. Not at all. Favre is a Hall of Famer who threw 28 touchdown passes. Do you think the Packers expect Rodgers to do this in 2008? No way. So that has to affect those around him. Grant should be a workhorse, which is good. He'll get a lot of touches. I have him early round two overall. I downgraded the wide receivers more.

Bill(NJ)

Ian Kennedy or Zack Greinke as a sixth starter?? Also, looking for some cheap speed, what do you think of Carlos Gomez?? Thanks

Eric Karabell

  (11:15 AM)

I've actually taken Kennedy in a few leagues already. I like his upside, and his team, and think he'll make 30 starts and win 12. Greinke isn't a bad option either. In AL-only drafts, these guys aren't sixth starters, more like 4s. And yes, Gomez will run, probably 25 or more.

Harris(Philly)

Given the shallow pool in AL, would u keep German for $4 or Willits for $10. Thanks EK!

Eric Karabell

  (11:17 AM)

Probably German. Can play second base, and if he steals 10, and Willits 20, that extra money could come in handy. I don't expect Willits to play nearly as much as he did in 2007. German should, though.

Mike (Austin, TX)

Do you see Berrian's fantasy appeal going up, down or the same with his move to the Vikes?

Eric Karabell

  (11:18 AM)

I think it goes up just a little, because Tarvaris Jackson throws a decent deep ball, and he's emerging, ever so slowly. I don't like the Chicago QB situation much. But let's not make Berrian a top 40 WR either.

Mark (maryland)

What are the chances Ryan Shealy gets 400+ AB this year?

Eric Karabell

  (11:21 AM)

There's always a chance, but I think the Royals intend to play others at first base ahead of him, notably Ross Gload and Billy Butler. Shealy should find his way to playing time, but I don't think he's the next Ryan Garko, a guy who suddenly hits 20 homers.

Eric Karabell

  (11:22 AM)

By the way, on the Berrian question, I meant top 20 for wide receivers. The point is you can still do better.

Steve (MA via E. Hartford)

Are spring training stats competely useless in terms of predicting a players performance this year?

Eric Karabell

  (11:24 AM)

Largely useless. I do look at who is running a lot, who is taking walks, some power spikes, but even the players who play the most for certain teams have no chance to make the team. I'm also looking at who is failing. If Felix Pie, for example, doesn't take a walk and hits .200, that tells me something. But Orlando Hudson could go 0-for-30 and I don't drop him in the rankings one bit.

Joe (New York)

Who do you think will be better this year Alex Gordon or Evan Longoria?

Eric Karabell

  (11:25 AM)

I'll take Gordon. I think he breaks out. Longoria could be a great one right away, but I likely won't be taking that chance. Others will draft him too high. I think Gordon, as today's blog will say, really emerges.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

plain and simple: andruw jones = super sleeper? judging by ESPN's projections for him, he's an enormous steal.

Eric Karabell

  (11:26 AM)

I think the power comes back, though it didn't really leave, and he hits about .260 or so. Basically, I could see 35-110 from him, so yes he is quite the bargain.

Jon (LA)

You obviously like Hamilton. Where do you rank him amongst all CFs? Not OFs, CFs.

Eric Karabell

  (11:29 AM)

Remember Jim Edmonds? That's Hamilton. Power and durability questions, can't hit lefties but still gets the numbers you need. I have Hamilton in the 9-11 range for pure center fielders, guys who will continue to play there. Like Andruw Jones and Vernon Wells. Hamilton has more upside.

Bill (home)

Who is most likely to end up first on the player rater at the end of the year besides AROD or Santana?

Eric Karabell

  (11:30 AM)

It's normally a starting pitcher who ends up No. 1, so I'd say Peavy and Webb have the best chance.

Scott (Albany NY)

Everyone seems to think that Dice-K will have a much better season than last years - Are you in agreement and what are your projections? Thanks

Eric Karabell

  (11:31 AM)

I think he'll have a similar season, and there's nothing wrong with that. I expect an ERA over 4, but 15 wins and 200 Ks.

Steve (Shelton, CT)

Which NL OF has the greatest value: Victorino, Hermida, Wilingham, Duncan or Ankiel?

Eric Karabell

  (11:31 AM)

Depends what you want. Victorino is a legit 10-homer, 40-steal guy, but Hermida should flirt with 25-100-10.

Phil (Cleveland)

Eric - Auction question. I will be playing in my first auction league. How do the dollar values adjust when you play in a shallow league with 8 teams?

Eric Karabell

  (11:33 AM)

I spend a lot more on the stars, knowing that there are fewer teams and more good players will be available late for cheap prices. If David Wright is a $40 player normally, go to $45 at least in an 8-team league. I wouldn't worry so much about prices in that format, just get whom you want.

Nate (Effingham)

Who takes over the CF job in ATL if Kotsay falters?

Eric Karabell

  (11:34 AM)

I don't think Kotsay will falter, but he could get hurt again. I'd think the Braves will not rush Jordan Schafer from the minors, but instead fill in the gaps and bat a guy eighth like Joe Borchard or Omar Infante there.

Zac, Boston

Eric, would you protect Kemp or Hawpe?

Eric Karabell

  (11:37 AM)

I would go with Hawpe, who is safer and could be better even if Kemp gets 500 at-bats. Kemp is being overdrafted. Sure, he should be good, but Hawpe already is good.

Michael (Tucson, AZ):

Last time before I go, I promise. Late round speed, who do you like or are they all about the same: R. Willits, Jerry Owens, or R. Davis (SF)? I drafted Davis but then dropped him for Owens.

Eric Karabell

  (11:38 AM)

Owens is going to play, and he really could steal 40 bases kind of easily. Doesn't need more than 400 at-bats to do it. He could platoon with Carlos Quentin, but it appears he has opportunity now.

BJ (Chicago)

here's the thing though Eric, if you project Jones at 260/35/110, how does that make him the 137th ranked player. That doesn't make sense. I bet those projected numbers don't have 136 guys better than that

Eric Karabell

  (11:39 AM)

Jones is in my top 100, quite easily.

Lee

Hey Eric, would you trade Michael Young for Felix Hernandez?...I still have Tejada and Perralta..

Eric Karabell

  (11:40 AM)

Yeah, why not? I'm not the biggest Young fan, though what he does, he certainly does well. I do think Felix takes strides this season.

Sull (South Boston)

What are your thoughts on Manny Parra?

Eric Karabell

  (11:41 AM)

Strikeout lefty hasn't been able to stay healthy, and could steal some starts if Gallardo is on the DL. I don't think Gallardo goes on the DL, though. Parra probably gets stuck in middle relief, and is a fill-in guy. I like the upside, but there's no opportunity yet.

Brett (Bolingbrook)

I notice Joey Gathright is running alot this spring, does he have an everyday starting job? Good late round grab for steals?

Eric Karabell

  (11:42 AM)

Yeah, he just had a 3-steal game, which is always nice. Of course, a year ago he was getting caught as much as he was successful. I think the Royals realize this is not a great player, but as a fourth outfielder he should swipe 20 or so. If it's a late-round grab, sure.

MJ (edmonton)

Is this the year Bush finally cashes in on his strong peripheral stats and posts an ERA around 3.90, with a WHIP around 1.15?

Eric Karabell

  (11:44 AM)

I'm past projecting this for Dave Bush, because he always seems to mess something up and I think the Brewers are losing patience with him and might convert him to relief at some point. But yes, based on the peripheral numbers, he should have an eventual breakout. I'm no longer counting on it for any year soon though.

Jon (Boston)

What type of season do you think Granderson will have? Has he hit his ceiling?

Eric Karabell

  (11:44 AM)

Not at all. I think he can run more if he so chooses, and eventually he will learn how to at least hit a little against lefties. He could be 30/30 with a decent batting average soon.

Patrick (Seattle, WA)

Speaking of Bush, do you happen to know what his BABIP was last year? For someone who can strike people out, he seems to get hit a lot.

Eric Karabell

  (11:45 AM)

I know. He seemed, statistically, to be really unlucky. But remember, BABIP doesn't always even out. A guy can just continue to be unlucky. I'd think better infield and outfield defense will really help Bush.

Brad(NM)

Eric, what do you think about Michael Bourn?

Eric Karabell

  (11:47 AM)

I think the Phillies made the right move in sending him away, because he'll be overmatched as a starter. He will run, though, so fantasy owners are going to think he's a star, but he's a Jerry Owens type who steals bags, that's it. If you want a 30-steal guy, go for it.

Todd, San Diego

Eric, Hiroki Kuroda has pitched very well so far. Do you see him as a guy who could be a great value as a late pick or $1 player?

Eric Karabell

  (11:47 AM)

I see him as more than a dollar guy, an innings eater with an ERA around 4 and 12 wins, at the least. Looks like a good value pick to me.

Ted (Philly)

How much are you hoping the rumored Larry Fitzgerald to the Eagles trade comes to fruition? What would that do to his value?

Eric Karabell

  (11:48 AM)

It would be nice. I don't think it changes his value much, but it helps the Eagles. I don't see Arizona parting with him.

Josh (San Diego)

Is Chase Headley worth a late round pick in a dynasty league?

Eric Karabell

  (11:48 AM)

Absolutely. In fact, I did exactly that in my dynasty league a few days ago!

Jon (Grand Rapids, MI)

What is it with people?s love for Bush?Dave that is? I had never seen him pitch prior to last year and was sucked into drafting him by internet hype. Then I watch his first start of the 2007 season and after the first pitch wonder what I was doing. He holds the ball in his hand for the batter to see way before the pitch is even close to being released. Talk about lack of deception. How the heck is he suppose to succeed with that delivery? Not to mention his fast ball is as straight as an arrow.

Eric Karabell

  (11:50 AM)

Plain and simple, he finished seventh in ALL of baseball with a 1.13 WHIP in 2006. His career WHIP is 1.25. We're not just making stuff up on Dave Bush, he should be better than he is. Who knows if that actually happens though.

Jack (Pitt)

How early should Figgins go in an OBP league where he has 2b eligibility?

Eric Karabell

  (11:50 AM)

I never peg someone in a certain round, but I'd be more apt to take Figgins if he had that elig and OBP counted. Certainly in the top 50.

Howard (Duckford)

Is Hanley a "risky" pick at number 2? Seems like Wright is a safer pick but Hanley has more upside. Am I correct about that?

Eric Karabell

  (11:51 AM)

In theory you are correct, but I don't see him as a risky pick. They're all risky, to a degree. Wright could decide to steal 14 bases instead of 30, for example. I don't have too many concerns with Hanley.

Ben (Santa Barbara, CA

How would a trade to the Cubs affect Brian Roberts fantasy value in 2008?

Eric Karabell

  (11:52 AM)

I don't think it means much. He'll still steal 40 bases, he'll still score runs. People want to bump him up a lot if this deal happens, but I think he is who he is.

Roger (Hobbs NM)

Projections for Corey Patterson? Seems like Dusty Baker loves him....

Eric Karabell

  (11:53 AM)

No guarantees on Patterson, but I will say the fact he's on the Reds now is not a good sign for Jay Bruce. This guy starts in the minors unless Griffey is hurt. Patterson might get to lead off, which is kind of atrocious knowing his past OBPs.

John (NY)

In the first spring training game, Pujols had more HR (1) than all last spring. Any chance the elbow thing is exaggerated?

Eric Karabell

  (11:54 AM)

Doesn't mean a thing. And yes, it is exaggerated. Bottom line on Pujols is he can hit through the elbow problem, but might choose surgery if the Cards really stink. That's it. I'm still taking him in round one, so I guess I tipped my hand on what I think!

Jeff (Charlotte, NC)

Eric, you seem to like Hermida, is he a better option than Cuddyer this year? I was hoping he'd hit his 2006 numbers again.

Eric Karabell

  (11:55 AM)

I would take Hermida over Cuddyer. Similar power for both I guess, but Hermida has the brighter future and can run if he wants.

John (Park City, Utah)

More importantly, how would a Brian Roberts trade impact Markakis?

Eric Karabell

  (11:56 AM)

It won't. People make a big deal about reverse lineup protection. Hanley will be just fine without Cabrera. Markakis will still knock in runs without Roberts. Means nothing to me. Their teams might stink, but Markakis hitting third knocks in 100 runs no matter what.

Ton (Queens)

Eric: Bedard or Zambrano. Thanks!!

Eric Karabell

  (11:57 AM)

Bedard gets more K's, so he's the choice, but deep down I worry about each of these guys staying healthy.

Joan (Silver Creek)

Speaking of OBP leagues, how do you think the first round changes in a league that uses OBP instead of average?

Eric Karabell

  (11:58 AM)

I don't think it changes round one much, but it makes mid-round picks like Dunn, Thome, etc. look a lot better.

Rick (NY)

What do you see out of Adam Jones and Brandon Wood this year?

Eric Karabell

  (11:58 AM)

Breakouts for both, especially Wood if the Angels wise up and let him play short.

Brad (Philly)

Tampa Bay Lightning round! Garko, Gordon, Helton, or Loney at 1B?

Eric Karabell

  (11:59 AM)

Gordon, Helton, Loney and then Garko.

Eric Karabell

  (12:00 PM)

OK, time to fly. There's another chat later on with that stolen base lover AJ Mass. Check it out! Adios...