Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's roll right into those questions...

Doug (New Hyde Park, NY)

Who is the first pitcher to overthrow the current closer for the job?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

First? Hmmm ... I think Rafael Betancourt deserves to close over Joe Borowski, or Tony Pena over Brandon Lyon, but "deserves" doesn't always equal "does." I'd pick Pena. I still think by, say, June 1, he overtakes Lyon, who hasn't been particularly consistent, durable or K-worthy throughout his career. And by the way, that's looking pretty much at the closer situations that matter, which is what counts on the question.

Mike (Maine)

the set up man

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Ha! Not always, Mike, just ask Joba Chamberlain, a possible starter! Not that I think he closes this year, but hey, anyone could get hurt I suppose, so who's to call Mariano Rivera a guaranteed health guy?

Joel (Atlanta)

Is Jimmy Rollins worth 1/6 of my auction budget? Spring training doesn't matter, right?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

When it comes to veterans, no, spring training pretty much doesn't matter, unless there's something (read: health issues, declined performance you can see visually) that clearly stands out. That said, I'd put Rollins a little beneath the one-sixth point, but not much below, and no, I'm not dropping him in the rankings. Period.

Chris (Syosset, NY)

What round does Johnny Cueto go in a mixed 12 team league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Well, he looks like he's going to crack the Reds' starting five after all, so I'd say take a late-round flier. Keeper league? Maybe 15th round or so. That said, Homer Bailey should serve as your caution not to go crazy here. I still say you get almost your entire staff set first before grabbing Cueto.

mike (atlanta)

is tulo a STEAL at pick 61 in a 10 team H2h league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

End of the fifth/start of the sixth? Absolutely. I still say shortstop is thinner than you think after you get past the likes of Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Tejada and Michael Young.

Vinny (nyc)

What are your expectations for I.Kennedy this season. Worthy 5th/6th SP in mixed?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

He's better than people give him credit, and likely to be in the rotation, based on the spring returns thus far. So I'd say if he's treated in around the same fashion as the aforementioned Cueto in mixed -- final pitcher or two on your staff -- that's just about right. No higher than that, though. Don't go nuts with rookies.

Scott (DC)

I'm in an AL only league. I'm rolling the dice on some closers-in-waiting. What chance do you think these relievers have in closing in 2008: Neshek, Betancourt, or Benoit? Any? All? Thanks for chatting!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Pat Neshek's best chance is a Joe Nathan trade, and you know, that's absolutely a possibility. Rafael Betancourt, he's a better actual fit in my mind than Joe Borowski, but there's something to be said for the bullpen where the best arm can be slotted in pretty much anywhere in the game, so it's no lock he takes over, either. As for Joaquin Benoit, I'd really LIKE to see him close in Texas, but to date, I pretty much don't hear him at all mentioned as a serious candidate. I'd rank 'em Betancourt, Neshek, Benoit in terms of speculative saves.

Jack (on hiatus)

Tristan - thanks for chatting with us. Which SF pitcher do you like more - Cain or Lincecum - and why? Thanks bro.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

I like Matt Cain better, and I'll happily admit that this debate is largely a matter of opinion, not a "one pick is clearly the right one." For me, I like the guy with a little more experience, a slight bit less tendency to be erratic. Cain, I've seen some stretches where he has been downright dominant, and if he puts that all together this year, which seems about right for his experience level, boy...

jay (NY) NY

what do you think of doumit as a catcher in a 12 man h2h league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

Not enough at-bats to make a big impact in H2H. Not that I dislike Ryan Doumit, but it matters in that format.

Joe (NY, NY)

I like taking catchers late, anyone you like as a end of the draft pick?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

Mixed or AL- or NL-only? Mixed, hmmm, perhaps a Ramon Castro, good bat who can't hurt you, or Kurt Suzuki, decent youngster, maybe Chris Snyder, with his underrated power, or J.R. Towles, with all his upside (and I'd probably rank them in the reverse order, come to think of it). AL-only? Hmmm, Mike Redmond, Kelly Shoppach? NL-only, Chris Coste, Chris Iannetta, Miguel Montero.

brad (harrisburg, pa)

plain and simple: do you have any problem w/ Rollins and Phillips as your 1,2 picks?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

Not really, but I'll be honest, if you get Jimmy Rollins, and I think of him as a mid-to-late first rounder, I'd be hoping for a little stronger second rounder. Just my thinking; I have Brandon Phillips in the 25-30 range overall.

John (Boston, MA)

Why would you "really LIKE" to see Benoit close? Are you related to him or did you just draft him as a cheap source of saves in all of your leagues?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

I think he has the makeup and the stuff to do it, not that I own him in any particular league (I might have him as a reserve in one). He's durable enough and pitched well down the stretch, but really didn't get a serious chance in the role, and I think with what he did, he at least warrants a shot. That's all.

Ashlen (Omaha, NE)

while we are on catchers who do you start Varitek or Carlos Ruiz

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Ugh, I'm not at all a Jason Varitek fan but I doubt I could pass up his power/RBI potential in that lineup for Carlos Ruiz, who isn't quite proven enough yet. It's close, though.

Malcolm wilmington, nc

What is the chance that Pearce in Pittsburgh and Balentin in Seattle make the opening day roster?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

I'd say Wladimir Balentien has a better chance at it, since the Mariners are a tad thin in right field. Steve Pearce, I like him as an NL-only sleeper, but the problem is he'll need to adapt regularly to right field, and the spot is filled for the Pirates, so he could get some useful Triple-A time. He'll be up this year for sure, though.

Adam (NY)

Mclouth worth a late round flier in a 12 team mixed league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Apparently I'm the world's biggest Nate McLouth fan. And I guess that comes across badly, because I don't totally love the guy, I just don't think he belongs on the discard pile, that's all. He can rack up double-digit homers and steal in the 20s, and that's a valuable guy to have to round out your outfield. So "flier" definition? Absolutely, I'm saying.

Ray (NC)

Do you see either Clement or Wieters as starting catchers in 2009?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Matt Wieters has a much better shot. I really doubt Jeff Clement's future is behind the plate, though if memory serves, Kenji Johjima's contract is up next winter, so you never know. I really do think Clement is either at first base or DH in 2009, though, so I'd say pretty even that they're both in the majors. But you asked about catching; Wieters, yes, Clement, no.

Matt Doe (Canandaigua, N.Y.)

Do you think Celtics are going to get an NBA title?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

I thought that looked like a heck of a team heading into the season, and it has done nothing but make me think even higher of it since. So yeah, I'd say they're a really strong bet. Of course, anything can happen in a playoff series, so...

Jacob (Alberta)

I picked up Crede because I thought he was going to SF. Is that going to happen or is he staying in Chicago.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

He looks awful this spring. Of course, he has his GM in Chicago saying he'll be at third base if healthy, and at least he looks healthy, he just looks like a shell of his former self, that's all. I think the White Sox are merely showcasing Joe Crede. I'm pretty convinced of it. So, in other words, stay the course, but it's always smart to start formulating your backup plan, just in case. That team will be awfully silly to hand Crede third base and demote Josh Fields.

George Fox, NYC

I took Phillips over Carlos Lee yesterday, did I make a bad move?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

No, I've got them ranked within range of each other (five spots at most), so that's about right based on position/categorical needs, which change from format to format.

Chad (dc)

What do you see from Rudi Johnson this year, starter, back-up, cut?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

I really think his 2007 was more a matter of him being less than full health than him being "done," but he has a lot to prove. I bet the Bengals bring him back and keep a few decent alternatives around to push him, or spell him in-season. In other words, might be a timeshare, he's the slightly better bet of a bunch that ranks below the league average. A lot can change between now and September, though.

wes, boston

bailey or garza?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

Matt Garza is just a little more experienced, and is in a little safer ballpark for his purposes. So I pick him.

Cosmo (New York)

Soria for $2 in AL 4x4 W Whip Era and S?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

Steal. I'd almost assuredly have him more in the teens, say, $16-18, in that format.

Ben Len, langdale

What's going on with Rafael Soriano right now?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

His elbow is a bit sore, and the Braves aren't being much more forthcoming than that. That's always a concern around this time, but I wouldn't totally panic, not yet. Just don't treat him like an automatic top-10 closer, that's all. And it's a shame; I really felt he was one of the stronger closer breakouts.

Nick (Greenwich, CT)

Hey T..can u take a keeper Football question. Manning, Edge, Chris Brown for McNabb, Welker, and McCallister..is this fair?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

I'd rather have Peyton Manning's side. There's too much risk on the other end. Big drop-off at quarterback, and I can't say that's an improvement at running back either. And I'm not that big on keeping No. 2 wide receivers, to be honest.

AT (Boston)

Hey Tristan, great stuff. In an established keeper league with the first pcik this year. The best 4 available are Dunn, Granderson, Hart, and Pena. Rank em'

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Curtis Granderson is the clear standout, especially in a keeper league. Then Corey Hart, then I'd say Adam Dunn, then Carlos Pena, though the last two are awfully close in value to each other.

Sam (VA)

With the resent reassigment of Lance Broadway, does Jack Egbert have a better than average chance of staying in the majors this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Well, I'm hearing that the White Sox's rotation is all but settled, and it's Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd (how he'd be the three, I don't understand), Jose Contreras and John Danks. Though, with all that risk, I think there's no doubt we'll see Egbert this year, perhaps before the All-Star break. He's an AL-only sleeper, and I'd agree with you that it's a good sign he lasted in camp longer than Lance Broadway. It means he might be the next-in-line for a spot.

Rich (Richmond)

If Rafael Soriano can't go, who is the next closer-in-waiting for the Braves?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

Well, it's not Mike Gonzalez, because he's not healthy. Soooo ... let's say Peter Moylan, that's my clear pick. But I'd treat Moylan in very much the same fashion today that I would Tom Gordon. Very similar fantasy value picks.

Kent(Dallas)

Which SS past the 1st round will provide the most value this season in relation to their current adp.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

I think Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal and Khalil Greene aren't getting their fair shakes in terms of early drafts I've seen.

Mike (Orange County)

Tristan, I need steals in my NL only league. Who do you like between Nyger Morgan and Rajai Davis? Will either get enough AB's to make a fantasy impact?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

Well, this goes back to the earlier Nate McLouth question, as Morgan is battling him for the center field role in Pittsburgh (which is the only reason I won't go all in on McLouth in every format). That said, I'm a bit more skeptical Morgan gets a full slate of at-bats than I am Davis. I like the Giant a tad better, and actually think he should be starting there. Take him.

Ryan(NJ)

You like ALex Gordon's chance of a breakout this year, followed by a mega-breakout in 09'?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

I think that's a very smart way to treat the kid. Decent step forward this year, but the big thing doesn't come until 2009. For this year, I say his best is that he barely cracks the top 10 third basemen, which is still a very nice step forward.

Garrett (NC)

Tristan what do you think of Daric Barton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

I think his hand injury really scared me early, but it's good to see he seems over it this week. That said, I don't think the power will be there for him. Let's say he's a batting average/runs scored contributor, hitting in that No. 2 lineup spot. Maybe he bats .285 and gets in the 80s in runs? That's not a bad year, not from a corner infielder or AL-only first baseman.

Brad(PA)

Are you the guy in a league who is the first to draft a pitcher or do you live by the rule of drafting offense early and pitching later? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

I might be the LAST guy to pick a pitcher in my league. Well, unless buddy Eric Karabell is in the league, of course, then I'm second-to-last! I'm all on board with the idea of building around offense. Here's why: Where do the in-season value pickups come? That's right, more often from the pitching side. It's so volatile, pitching in general.

Vinny (LI, NY)

Snell or McGowan?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

I actually have them ranked right next to each other, so you could pretty much flip a coin. My gut instinct? It's Dustin McGowan. Just a little better win potential, and something tells me that ERA of his last year was awfully misleading.

Alex New Orleans

How far apart in value do you have Hart and Granderson... Where do you rank Rios with those three? I think that Hart is going to take a big step forward, while Granderson is what he is...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

A round, maybe. And I actually have Rios a couple spots (in the overall rankings) ahead of Granderson. I agree with you, Curtis Granderson "is what he is," but isn't what he is a great thing? I'd say it is. At best I say Corey Hart becomes Granderson's 2007. But again, that's not at all bad!

Mike (Carbondale, IL)

You seem to have Brandon Phillips lower than most...what guys do you have above him? Beltran, Berkman, Prince, Papi?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Yes, no, yes, yes. And it's all about the batting average risk, to me, with Brandon Phillips. I've got him with the lowest projected batting average of anyone in my top 40 overall players (.270).

James, Old Tappan, NJ

Travis Hafner projections? Also, just curious, do you think he's a "classic roid guy"? Thanks TC.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

I'm not going to throw around "roid guy" allegations; I don't want to live in a game centered around paranoia. Besides, Hafner had a great little run there, and though I don't have the exact numbers on it, there's a lot of data out there that says the late-blooming sluggers often don't have as long an elite portion of their careers as the ones who peak early. My projections? I still say a bounce-back year, .290-35-100 kinds of numbers. Big Hafner fan here.

Corey (Philadelphia)

I took David Wright number 3 in a 14 team roto league (a-rod, hanley went 1, 2) what do you think about that pick, was it a reach?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Nope, love David Wright this year. Can't say it better than that.

Mike (Carbondale, IL)

You say pick pitching late...what round would you start looking for a pitcher?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

I usually grab my first pitcher somewhere in the sixth-round range, though that varies, and I can't make it a specific "I do this every draft" comment. For instance, if everyone is going with my strategy, and Johan Santana slips into the second round, I'm all over him there. It's the same with any pitcher I see slipping 10 or more spots beneath where I'd rank him. But in general, I'd say I usually get my first arm around the sixth, by the 10th I generally have seven hitters, three arms (or 6/4 if the value was there), and I try to keep it 3-4 hitters ahead of pitchers on my staff until the later rounds.

Andrew (Springfield)

The NL hitter who will come from nowhere this year to be a stud is ______________.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Jeremy Hermida. But we're talking debatable words when we say "from nowhere" and "stud." I just like the kid to surprisingly come from the mid-to-late rounds and be a potential elite performer. Big split in ADP compared to actual value, I'd say.

Jeremy (NJ)

Staying on the pitching theme, is taking Johan at number 1 overall then not taking another pitcher til say round 10 a good strategy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Sure, but I still think it's smarter to get a hitter in the early half of the first round. A-Rod, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Matt Holliday, to me, are without question safer selections to build around than Johan Santana. Just my feeling.

Jeff (Somerset, NJ)

Garret Atkins or (yo)Adrian Gonzalez? Why?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

For as much as I like Gonzalez, it's Atkins all the way. Safer bet for batting average, much deeper lineup, much more favorable ballpark. Those things matter quite a bit in terms of the value difference.

Doug (New Hyde Park, NY)

Lackey or Harang?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

John Lackey's health must be monitored up until the second in your draft you need to make this call, but as of right now, this very second, I'm not ready to push the panic button on him. He might miss one turn in the rotation, if he misses any. So it's him.

Nima (Great Neck, NY)

Thoughts on Scott Hairston?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

Great NL-only sleeper, but be prepared for some slumps, especially in that ballpark. The kid could belt 25 homers in the best-case scenario. He could also bat .250. But I like these upside plays late.

Joan (Silver Creek)

Having some serious problems with this pick - obp league (no average) - please rank ortiz, braun, fielder. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

Not a keeper league? If it's yearly, it's David Ortiz. I've got him as a virtual lock to easily surpass a .400 on-base percentage, so that bumps him up.

Jack (Pitt)

Better late pick - Parra or Kershaw?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

There's going to be an inevitable buzz surrounding Clayton Kershaw this spring, now that he's in the big-league camp, and I do think it means we'll see him sometime this year. Still, Manny Parra really needs to be on the Brewers' Opening Day roster, and I'd be shocked if he's not. And, I'll also say, he should be in the rotation. Great sleeper, and he's my choice here.

Scott Charles, Roslyn,NY

Liriano or Sheets?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Maybe I'm just not a Francisco Liriano believer, but the history of Tommy John returnees is too shaky for my tastes. It takes time, folks, often up to a full year of active game action before a guy regains his full past form. They're both risks for 2008, but I like what I see from Ben Sheets so far this spring. He gets the nod.

Jon (Mad-Town)

Who closes for the Cubs, Wood or Marmol?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Should be Carlos Marmol, but again, "should" doesn't mean "does." I keep hearing Kerry Wood is making a strong case for the role, at least as things stand today. Could be a Wood begins the year, Marmol finishes it thing.

Rick (Springfield, NJ)

King Felix or K-Rod, 5th round, 16 team, 72nd pick overall?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Felix Hernandez. I'm on board with this "don't pay for saves" thing. Well, at least I am with regard to taking them before, say, 80th overall. I just like Felix's upside better.

Lenti, LI

Pence or hart, keeper league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

This year matters most in my mind, even in a keeper league, and both are keepers anyway. So it's Corey Hart.

Mark (maryland)

Any hitters you see having a 20%+ spike in HRs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

The first guy I think of is the guy I'm taking a lot of heat for ranking higher than the masses, and that's Derrek Lee. I think his late-season power boost bodes well for his 2008.

Brendan (Boston)

Is a last round BJ Ryan pick a good risk/reward pick?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Absolutely. I'd be happy to treat him as such, since the spring reports are promising enough. Again, though, don't go nuts, Tommy John returnee.

Paul (New Orleans, LA)

Hamels or Kazmir?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

I actually do have Cole Hamels ranked higher, though they're oh so very close. Which is a lot higher than most people will have Scott Kazmir ranked, I can tell you that!

Andrew (Springfield)

The NL player who will start in the minors and have the biggest impact this year is ______________.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

First guy who comes to mind is Jay Bruce. I'd be shocked if he's on the Opening Day roster, and I'd be equally shocked if he hasn't made his case to be the everyday center fielder before, say, the All-Star break. And, in fact, I think it could be May 15, accounting for how talented he is.

Bruce Rycki (CT)

How many more years do you think Mariano Rivera has left?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

What did he sign, a three-year deal I think? (Memory is lagging a tad there on whether it was a two.) I think he completes the deal. But if you're wondering if he'll close the entire course of the deal, I actually am not convinced. I'd say he has about a year and a half of solid, reliable closer numbers left for fantasy. And even then, he'll finish 2009 in the role, but maybe he'll be a frustrating Todd Jones type, for all we know.

George Sherill, Baltimore

Why haven't I been named closer yet? Is there something that people don't know???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Hey, you gotta "earn" the job, man, that's what they all say in Baltimore, know what I mean? Ha. I'm kidding, really. This is all for show; it's gotta be Sherrill. Treat him as a third-tier closer.

Jimmy (NH)

Tristan, is Billy Crystal a stretch to take in the 5th round?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Ha! Awesome. Yeah, add him to your sleeper list. (Special note: Tristan does not actually suggest this, he is merely joking, and is putting in a special note because the last time he made such a joke, someone believed it.)

Shaun(NYC)

Brandon Lyon or CJ Wilson(SF)?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

I assume that's Brian Wilson you're talking about, and I'd say him by a nose, because the job security is better.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours ... always trying to tackle as many as I can! We'll be back in the afternoon to chat with you again, though, so see you then! Take care...