Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Dave (Hoboken)

Any idea when Carpenter goes on the DL? Also, will the D-Train get on the right track?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

DL moves -- and Chris Carpenter is an inevitable DL guy -- generally happen within the final week of spring training, so I'd say any day now. All roster technicalities and such. As for Dontrelle Willis, I'm not expecting big things from him. He'll get the run support, perhaps 15 wins, but the ERA might be four or higher. Just not an elite arm.

Bruce, Big Lake MN

Who are your DEEP AL Only sleepers? Drafted last weekend and need to add a pitcher to my squad. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

Deep AL-only pitching sleepers? How about Dana Eveland, the A's probable fifth starter; Kevin Slowey, a nice ratios guy if he can keep his homers in check; John Danks, a former top prospect having a decent spring; Kazuo Fukumori, who might by all rights be the Rangers' closer by May 1; and J.P. Howell, whose second-half Triple-A dominance bodes well.

John (Niagara Falls)

Does Clayton Kershaw get a call up this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

I'd be shocked if he didn't. And if you want to price him appropriately, I'd say he's got a shot at a year kind of like Yovani Gallardo's a year ago. Of course, I'll also note Homer Bailey's rookie year to show you that nothing is guaranteed, but a similar number of starts to those two, I could see it.

aaron: (springfield, mo)

snyder or Molina in a league that also counts OBP?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

It's not going to change regardless of format, if that's Bengie Molina he's the guy. Possible cleanup hitter, for one. Chris Snyder would be the obvious choice, though, if that's Yadier (or Jose) Molina.

Kevin (NJ)

Rich Hill has looked god awful this spring (especially his last outing). What are your thoughts on him for this year? Should I be looking to get a more solid #3 starter?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I'm not that troubled. Don't read TOO much into spring returns, save for things like Noah Lowry's or Barry Zito's brutal performances. Though, I will say that this continues to demonstrate that Hill isn't exactly an ace-caliber arm, and more of a No. 2/3 type for a big-league club. Where he's priced/drafted right now, that seems about right to me, no higher.

Tom Tuttle (Tacoma)

Predictions for Corey Patterson? 15/35 or bust?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Well, there's a clear difference between what SHOULD and WILL happen here. I say Patterson falls short. I'm simply not a fan. By all rights he should play two months, play them underwhelmingly, and then Jay Bruce takes over around June 1. So I'll put him in the "bust" category, since his batting average will be bad either way. But hey, it's a Dusty Baker team, stranger things have happened.

Chris (Saratoga, NY)

Better chance for saves in 08 - Howry or Pena?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that Tony Pena is the choice. The Cubs have better options.

aaron: (springfield, mo)

Bengie Molina's OBP was UNDER .300 last year? I just don't agree...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

So what? One category. The rest will be better than Chris Snyder.

Justin (Birmingham, AL)

How about a hockey question? I am in a 12 team, H2H, 3 keeper league with standard scoring. Do I keep Heatley, Price, and Fluery or do I drop one of the goalies and keep Brian Campbell instead? No loss of draft picks or anything for keeping certain players. Thanks,

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

I think of Campbell as a somewhat replaceable commodity in a keeper league. Not that I think Marc-Andre Fleury is a GREAT keeper in that format, and I'd recommend you try to trade up for another decent forward, but I'd keep the two goalies. Harder to replace than Campbell.

aaron: (Springfield, mo):

do you play in any leagues against other fantasy experts from competing companies?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Sure do. Check out my LABR-NL review, up now on the fantasy baseball page.

Vinny (Elmont, LI)

Trying to choose between Patterson and McLouth for a balanced (HR/SB) hitter off my bench. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

I suppose Corey Patterson's upside is greater than Nate McLouth's, but since I'm not that big a fan and think is downside is also greater, I'd go McLouth here. He's having a fine spring, and is pretty underappreciated. Safer, I'd say.

Eric (Fort Collins CO)

How would you rank the following starters? Sonnanstine, Germano, Bergmann, Lieber? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

Hmmm, probably Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Bergmann, Jon Lieber, Justin Germano, and Lieber could slip to fourth if he doesn't get the rotation spot he surely deserves (sadly, Ryan Dempster might get it undeservedly). Not that I see any of these guys being any more than matchup types all year.

Willy Mo (NJ)

Adrian Beltre. Discuss. Why does he drop so far in drafts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

I have no idea. He shouldn't. Frankly, there isn't a much safer .280-hitting, 25-homer candidate third baseman around, obviously discarding the elite guys (of course we know they'll do it). But of the "non-studs," I mean, he's about as good a bet for top-10 status as anyone. Give me a choice, Adrian Beltre or Alex Gordon for 2008 alone. I'm taking Beltre. No doubt at all.

Jeffrey ((Pittsburgh PA))

With how close duke came to losing to belmont how far do you think duke will get in the ncaa tournament

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

Hey, I had 'em advancing pretty darned far, so maybe that'll just serve as a wake-up call?

Jamaal (Mount Laurel, NJ)

What do you expect from Tim Hudson this year? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

More of the same. Maybe a SLIGHT drop-off in numbers, but nothing too dramatic. I like that Hudson seems to have settled in nicely as what he is today; he's a ground-balling, low-risk guy who's not quite an ace but is still very good. Think much in the class of the Fausto Carmona/Chien-Ming Wang/"lite" Brandon Webb class, though with more K's than Wang and lesser numbers obviously than Webb.

ryan chicago

Which side do you like Carmona and Street for Hafner??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Travis Hafner, but then I prefer to build around hitters and I'm not the kind of guy to overrate saves.

Steve (Kansas)

Please help - in a keeper league which two do you want? Torii and Beltre or Zimmerman and Francoeur?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

The latter. Much better long-term potential. Similar 2008 value on either side of the deal, but better upside on the latter. Ryan Zimmerman's going to be a star, I can see it.

Bill McGuinn (Omaha)

CLOSER ALERT? Who is closing in AZ, TEX and Chicago (cubs)?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

All pure speculation, and mine is that on Opening Day, it's Brandon Lyon, C.J. Wilson and Kerry Wood. But if I'm picking "most saves" on those teams, it changes, to Tony Pena, Kazuo Fukumori and Carlos Marmol.

Rich (TX)

Who is the Best bet for cheap power in an AL Only league: Daric Barton, Luke Scott, or Jason Kubel?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

"Cheap power" is the operative phrase here, so it's Scott.

John (NY)

Where do you rank Lackey now that he'll only make 25 starts? Above/below guys like Javy, Gallardo, Cain, Shields?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Below, below, below and below, because I don't even think 25 starts is a lock. Not a fan of the guy guaranteed to miss at least a month, because it often winds up more than that. Slash his projection by 40 percent and rank appropriately, which for me puts Lackey in more of the No. 30-35 range or so among starters.

Lil Jon (NY)

Why is Rollins ranked so far below (relatively speaking) Reyes and Ramirez. He went 30-40 last year. I think he deserves top-5 status.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

I agree, though I do think his 2007 was his ceiling. Not that I think he's due for a decline, I just think that's about the best it gets, while there's a tad more upside in a Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez. Believe me, while I have Rollins in the 6-8 range overall, I won't laugh at anyone picking him in the top five.

Alex (LA)

What do you make of our 3B situation? Trade for one? Wait on Nomar? Wait on LaRoche?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

The trade market hasn't been especially strong this spring, though we might yet see a flurry of final-week deals as teams settle their Opening Day rosters. I'd say a deal is better than 50/50, getting a guy to pair up with Tony Abreu. If not, then I bet Abreu and Blake DeWitt platoon initially.

kevin (state college, pa)

How big is the dropoff between Carlos Lee and Nick Markakis? Was just offered Markakis and Haren for Carlos Lee. I love me some CLee, but the upside of Markakis and move to the NL for Haren makes this a no-brainer, right?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Obviously the guy who gets bumped from your lineup/roster comes into play here, and I don't know who that is, but I have a feeling that's a great trade for you. That's a top-10 capable starter and an outfielder I have ranked within a few spots of Lee, perhaps a round or so later in a draft. Great deal for you.

Gus from Philly

Shane Victorino......Unappreciated this year? I see guys like Byrnes being drafted a lot earlier, but can't the Flying Hawaiian putting up similar numbers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

He won't approach Eric Byrnes in home runs but I'd be stunned if he can't swipe more bags. Very underrated player, though I do know enough people on the Victorino bandwagon to get him into the back end of the top 100 players overall. I put him right around that cutoff, which is a nice rank for him.

Eric (Fort Collins CO)

Isnt Fukumori 3rd on the depth chart for saves in Texas. Why do you think that Wilson and Benoit will both fail?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

Health, both have been nicked up all spring. Plus, I think C.J. Wilson has too much value to that team as a situational reliever. Not that I'm saying you pour all your draft resources into Fukumori, I'm just saying with his great spring, he's an absolute saves sleeper. These are guys you need to know, scout and stash on a bench just in case.

Curtis (Washington Twp, NJ)

Are you worried about a drop in Nick Markakis's value? He really has minimal help in that lineup!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

Nope. Great players get their stats. If anything gets hurt for Markakis, it'll be runs and RBIs. It's not like the lineup is the worst in the game besides; that honor belongs solely to the Giants.

Peter

Who are the guys you are targeting in an OBP leaugue?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

Great values compared to batting average formats include Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Jim Thome, Carlos Pena, Gary Sheffield...

JAY (Lower East Side, NYC)

who would you take 1st: Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy (NYY) ?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Hughes. Higher upside. That said, Kennedy is looking like quite the nice late-round sleeper, and part of that is because he's on a team so strong offensively.

Colin

Whats a total team number of projected steals that you should have?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

In one of my most competitive 12-team mixed leagues in 2007, 170 steals would have ranked you fourth, the middle teams were around 160 and if you were under 150 you were dead in the water. I'd say you want to approach 175 to be elite. MUST be over 150 to be competitive in the category, ballparking it.

Billy

Do you like Furcal as a bounce back?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

If Juan Pierre isn't a regular and Rafael Furcal can snatch back that leadoff role, I'd absolutely call him a bounce-back candidate. And I think he's probably going to be in that spot a fair share, since Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are playing too well for Pierre to play regularly.

Spiros (Sunny FLA)

Do you think Joe Blanton is underrated? He's 27 and has a great home ballpark, you think he could hit his stride this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

I do, and I especially think that because there's a very real chance the A's will look to deal him at the deadline, perhaps to a team that will make him stronger in the wins category. Nice mid-round bargain.

Jack (Pine Bluff, UT)

Randy Winn 15HRs-15SBs this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

I'd call him a solid bet for it, yet no one seems to be giving him the credit for that projection.

Frank (Boston, MA)

What do you make of Josh Hamilton's spring? I heard he 'looks like Mickey Mantle out there' according to one Cactus League scout. Is there a better bet amongst mid-to-late round sleepers to have a huge, top 5 round caliber for 2009, breakthrough season??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

I'm hearing raves about Hamilton, too, though I won't go as far as to compare him to Mickey Mantle. As I wrote in my "30 questions" piece on Hamilton a couple weeks ago, I have precisely one, ONE, concern about him: Health. If he's healthy, no doubt he can be that top-50 overall player. But it's a risk. One you need to take, I'd say.

Michael (Forsyth, IL)

In a standard NL-only keeper league, I have Rich Hill, Harang, and Lincecum for a total of $30. Should I go after one of the available Ace pitchers (Santana, Haren, Smoltz) and try to lock up the pitching categories? Or fill in with cheap upside pitchers and spend the money on hitting?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

I'd probably spend on hitting. Don't I always spend on hitting? NL pitching is deep enough that you should be able to bolster that staff with some decent bargains, but I think it's going to be tougher for you to get bargain hitters in that league. Pay up for the bats!

Brick (Brooklyn)

Who do you handcuff street with?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

I wouldn't. Not everyone needs a handcuff, after all. The handcuff option, after all, has to have some true value to a fantasy team. Does Alan Embree fit that description? I'd say no, he's a better in-season pickup in the event he gets another shot to step in. But I'd actually call Santiago Casilla a pretty decent bet to be next in line for 2008, considering Embree has had a rocky spring.

Mary (SD)

Show a midwest girl some love! With injuries to Lackey, Kazmir and Beckett - who are your top 10 pitchers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard, Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, John Smoltz and Dan Haren.

Ben (Minneapolis)

I love baseball.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

As do I!

Brick (Brooklyn)

Nick Punto? Super deep league. What kind of numbers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

If he gives you, say, 15 steals, consider yourself lucky, because his numbers will be ugly everywhere else. Think a .250 average, at best. And nowhere near the number of at-bats he had in 2007.

Wade (Pawtucket, RI)

No love for the name game? Carlos Gomez or the newly signed Kenny Lofton? Markakis or Hart?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

Gomez, as we don't even know where or if Lofton will sign at all. Markakis, because I think a tad more of his raw hitting skills.

Sam

I just got offered a big trade, and I can't decide who to pick. A-Rod and Jeter (send) or Reyes and Wright (recieve)?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

Get the Mets. That's two certain first-round, top-five-overall players coming back for A-Rod and a guy not in the top two rounds.

Matt (Chicago)

THC- Is Joe Saunders worth a pickup in mixed 5x5 with a pretty bare pitching wire? Any other deep SPs to keep an eye on?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

I might be the only guy around who actually likes Joe Saunders. He's a decent wins bet, and a solid matchups type. I'd just avoid him when facing an elite offense, which won't happen that often in that division.

Jim, Boston

What do you think of Hermida? He's being draft all over the place...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

I think he's a great breakout candidate who only troubles me in the health department. Like Josh Hamilton, but certainly with less power, and probably better batting average.

Nate Ravitz

Need some help here...would you drop Cust for McLouth?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

No, but I also admit I'm saying that because I want you to leave Nate McLouth out there so I can grab him in that league! (Kidding, of course, I'd say yes, cut Cust for McLouth.)

Dave (Phoenixville, PA)

Hey Tristan, any advice for someone who had no time to do intensive draft prep?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Print out our draft sheets, read as many of our columns as you possibly can with the time you have before the draft, and don't let on for a moment that you didn't prep nearly as much as your counterparts. Confidence is a big thing at the draft table, never let 'em know you've got doubts.

Scott (minneapolis)

What are you doing in your leagues with respect to the Red Sox - As games in Japan? Counting or not?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Most of my leagues count every single regular-season game, so yes, I'd say most of mine, they count. I do have an AL-only league that drafts a week from today and won't count them, but then it also excludes the final week of the season, too. I think the fairest way to treat those games is count 'em as part of Week 1, so that in those leagues you have to set Red Sox and A's players by Tuesday's first pitch, the rest of your lineup by Opening Day.

Brick (Brooklyn)

The first pick in 2009 will be _________.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

David Wright. Because I just want to be fun. Is there really a wrong answer here?

Billy

Does Sizemore move up the draft board in an OBP leauge?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Maybe a spot or two; most of the guys in the top 25 really won't change an awful lot in such a format. I WILL say, though, that Grady Sizemore is surprisingly underrated in OBP leagues. I'd be happy to get him late-first/early-second.

Justin

Rickie Weeks will_________

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

be a 20/20 player, possible 25/25, but the batting average will disappoint. Or, at least, that's how I'm treating him. There aren't many more frustratingly streaky players around.

Grimaldi (LBC)

Loved the labr column: my only question is, why didn't you get on Chris Harris harder for overpaying for Harden??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

Well, for one thing, it's his team, and if he believes in Rich Harden, hey, that's his opinion. I have no right to complain; I loved Harden a year ago when he had that phenomenal spring. He burned me, and now I won't forgive him. The other thing: LABR is so ridiculously deep -- it's BY FAR the deepest league in which I've ever played, which I absolutely love -- that it really wasn't as far a price stretch as Chris made it out to be.

Dan (Baltimore)

The _____ pick in _____ will be ______ and he will _____ and _____, while also providing _______ and ______. In short, he will be a _______ player!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

I love Mad Libs.

Jim (Oklahoma)

Is Gordon worth more as a handcuff than Marmol is as a maybe closer? (I've got Jenks, Marmol, Sherrill, Lyon, and Gordon as my relievers and was looking to cut one)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

I don't think so, especially not with news that Brad Lidge believes he'll be ready by Opening Day. I think at worst he misses a week of the regular season, so that's a short-term handcuff. And with Kerry Wood not yet a lock to close in Chicago, you can't let Carlos Marmol go, not yet.

Peter

Do you have Micah Owings in any of your leagues?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I own him in a simulation league that goes off 2007 numbers and is keeper, and yes, I'll be keeping him ... boy can I not wait to see how he HITS in that league. If memory serves, I also have him in another keeper league, though I admit, I drafted him in each WELL before his rocky spring. He'll be in the Arizona rotation, I'd be stunned if he's not, but today, I'm a lot more hesitant to pick him. Think NL-only value, and mid-to-back of your staff at that.

Billy

If my league is 6x6 are SB's and saves overrated?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Yes. But then I also think they're somewhat overrated in 5x5. I can say this, though: Steals are suddenly becoming the most overrated of the categories in leagues I see. Saves, I think people are slowly starting to learn not to overvalue them.

Steven

Please rank....Pettitte,Owings,Maddux

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Swap Micah Owings and Greg Maddux and you're there.

tony (nj)

Quick rankings...J. Upton, Hermeida, Damon, Milledge...rank for the season and for a keeper league. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

This season: Johnny Damon, Jeremy Hermida, Lastings Milledge, Justin Upton. Long-term keeper: Justin Uptin, Jeremy Hermida, Lastings Milledge, Johnny Damon. I do believe by 2009, or at worst by 2010, Damon is going to be a pretty ordinary player.

Kenny

Thanks for chatting. What do you project for Howard and Pena's batting averages?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

I've got 'em both right around .270. Ryan Howard at .274, Carlos Pena .269.

Jason VA

Tristan- Would you use a bench spot for Eugenio Velez the 2b speedster in SF? 12 team mixed

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

Not in 12-team mixed, but I'd certainly take a shot on him in an NL-only league. That $7 bid on him in LABR is suddenly looking a lot smarter, though that's about where I'd cap him, and that's 13-team NL-only.

Greg (NY)

Who will win AL Cy young?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I'm really starting to believe it's going to be Justin Verlander. That's a nice mix of win potential AND raw talent there.

Tim (Kentucky)

Last bench spot...Giambia, Ankiel or Ramon Hernandez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Rick Ankiel. That's a ton of power upside to leave out there, even if I'm terribly skeptical about him in the batting average category.

Peter

You seem to be higher on Pettite than most of your collegues. Is this true?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Probably, and maybe it's just homerism, I admit. But I've watched Andy Pettitte pitch for years, and he's a gamer, a solid 15-win candidate with respectable ratios. Now, that's a reasonable forecast for him, it's not calling him an ace, not by a long shot. But after all the proven, elite fantasy arms are off the board, yup, I call him as good a pick as any.

Evan

Who are 5 other players you are higher on than most of your colleagues? Quick list

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Jeez, that's tough, I can't get into their heads instantaneously. From what I've gathered, I'd say Scott Kazmir, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jeremy Hermida, Milton Bradley and Rafael Soriano.

John (Charlottesville)

More HRs this year: Kouzmanoff, Encarnacion, or Conor Jackson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

You said home runs, and I can't go against Edwin Encarnacion in the category.

John (Niagara Falls)

Can Adam Jones put up the following numbers this year? .275-20-75 with 15 steals?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

That's a fair upside projection. I don't know that I'd draft him with that my assumption, but I won't say he lacks the skills to do it. I've got him in the teens in homers, and, say, 12 steals, but then I forecasted him not playing every single day too.

Doug (NJ)

Tristan, Dunn-Helton or CB Young-Delgado. Which would you rather have? 5x5.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Adam Dunn and Todd Helton, no contest. I want no part of Carlos Delgado.

John (Charlottesville)

How about overall - who do you like between Kouzmanoff, Encarnacion, and Conor Jackson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

I'm feeling pretty good about Jackson's chances overall. He gets the slight nod.

John (Niagara Falls)

After just finding out you are a Yankee fan, forget every good thing I have ever said about you! :-)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

It's amazing how "Yankee fan" has become a red mark on a person sometimes. Ah well. Hey, it's been a long, long time for me, no bandwagoning, at least I can say that. I say you pick a team and stick to it.

Peter

I took offense with my first 9 picks. Was that smart?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Well, I don't know your pitching staff, but I don't think that's a bad plan at all! A LOT safer than nine pitchers in a row.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all your questions, and have a great weekend and Easter! Take care...