Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Erich (San Francisco, CA)

I've heard the thought process that guys with awful home/road splits are less valuable in h-2-h leagues because they aren't the same player when they're away from their hitter's parks on road trips. Is this enough to drop Holliday out of the first round in this format in your opinion?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

I'd agree with that overall strategy, but not as it pertains to Matt Holliday. I might drop him a couple spots in that format because he's a bit more of an "ordinary" outfielder -- and by "ordinary" he's an All-Star yet not quite a mega-stud -- and it's not quite as tough a position to fill. But this is a special hitter we're talking about. The guys in question here, I'm thinking more like Pat Burrell, who is ACTUALLY ordinary on the road.

Seth (PA)

Hi Tristan. Do you think Dukes takes advantage of Pena's injury in Washington and becomes a viable fantasy play? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Great power, bad batting average, questionable, um, attitude? Think Milton Bradley with more power and less raw hitting ability. So that's a player I'd take AFTER Bradley, and Bradley's a late-rounder at that. Still, it also means he's not a discard.

Jack (NC)

Speaking of home/road splits- Do you see a bounce back from Ervin Santana this year? He obviously has the talent, but is his mind able to handle the road games??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Wow, if there is ever a home/road split guy, it's Ervin Santana. The Angels either need to line him up to pitch entirely at home, or they need to find some sort of way to transport all his home amenities with him everywhere they go. Seriously, he's that good at home, that bad on the road. I think some of it is an aberration, and they come back closer to the norms this year, in kind of a Chien-Ming Wang way (and not that I'm saying he's like Wang, just the difference in splits). Still, I much prefer Wang. Santana's a late-round flier. Matchups potential, really.

Paul (NY)

Homer Bailey make an impact this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I'm really starting to wonder whether he'll be a career bust. Not that we should write him off entirely like that, but SOMEONE in each prospect class has to fall far short of his expectations. He's an early candidate for the class of 2007. For this year, I'd say reserve pick in NL-only leagues, nothing more. He'd need to do a lot in the minors to get back on track in the near future.

antonio(Miami, FL)

Need some help with starting pitchers and i am a big fan of your daily notes!! Can you give us some names of those pitchers that you like for week 1 also please rank ankiel,butler or cduncan?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

I'll be perfectly honest with you, Antonio, I'm working the transition from preseason to regular season now, and as we chat I actually have my projected pitchers spreadsheet sitting in the background on my laptop. So, you can tell, I'm getting pretty geared up! And I'll say this: Keep an eye out the next, say, 48 hours, because I've got some really good Week 1 tips coming for you very, very soon. I'd rather wait and have the full research for you and the full starters list than take guesses today.

Matt (Jamestown)

Hey tristan who do you see having the better year Loney or Kemp?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Matt Kemp, because he could match James Loney's numbers in batting average, homers and RBIs yet tack on 15-20 steals. Or more, even.

Gray (Chicago)

Tristean, who are the offenses this season that you will try to avoid starting marginal pitching against? Any aside from Boston, NYY, NYM, and Detroit?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

The Phillies, particularly IN Philly. Those three, certainly, and I'd even argue that a lefty facing the White Sox IN Chicago is going to be a tad risky.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Any projections for Mike Sweeney?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

About 250 at-bats, .275 batting average, maybe eight homers? In other words deep AL-only worthy, but that's about it.

Nick (Greenwich, CT)

Hey Tristan..Now that Gagne went back to the National League..do u see him becoming an elite closer again? Or is his time over with?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

His time as a dominant force is over. I'm pretty convinced of that. That said, I do think there's some value in him. He's a back-end second-tier closer in my mind, and the concern with him is health. Think a year a little like the ones Jose Valverde offered you in 2005-06. Kind of like that.

John (Boston, MA)

What would you pay Lackey or Kazmir in AL auction? How about Escobar?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

Probably in the $13-15 range for John Lackey, $20ish for Scott Kazmir, and since you asked me what I'd pay, I'd pay no more than $3 for Kelvim Escobar. I really am convinced this is going to be a trying season for him, if he has a season at all.

Adam (Chicago)

I drafted Tony Pena thinking he had the closer job. How long until he gets it?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

I made my bold prediction recently that Brandon Lyon has a year like, which was it, 2005, I believe? He closes, and decently enough, until early-to-mid May. But by then, it's clear Tony Pena would do a better job of it. And that's all just personal opinion, no inside scoop I have. For know, all we know for certain is that Lyon is the closer on Opening Day.

Jeff, Boston

Carlos Gomez or Adam Jones: six of one, half dozen of another?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

I'd rather have Jones, but then I'd always rather have the guy I believe can be an impact guy with the bat right now. Gomez, he's pure steals, and I don't think you can expect anything else.

Smooth (SC)

Someone in my league just picked up Odalis Perez. Can I make fun of him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Yes. Because it's fun. I mean, Perez? Really? Nationals, THAT'S your Opening Day starter? Sheesh.

JP (Boston)

Please Rank: Willingham, Hall, Kubel

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Josh Willingham (a tad safer than the next guy), then Jason Kubel (nice sleeper play), then Bill Hall (strikeout king with pop, just a scary type to me).

Lou (Hackensack, NJ)

Tristan, may be crazy but would you trade CBY for Granderson? I am thinking of making the upgrade now but I am wary about the fracture your thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

I'm one of the bigger Chris Young fans out there, but I'd make that deal, sure. You get yourself safer in batting average and don't really lose much in the deal, other than taking on health risk. And frankly, I've already said this, but will say it again, I don't think that's that severe a thing to recover from. Think three weeks' regular-season time lost, at worst.

JP (BX)

Pedroia or Cano

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

The huge Yankee fan in me says Robinson Cano. Actually, the fantasy writer in me, and everything in me, in fact, says Cano.

Bob Ma

drop Hermida for Ankiel ?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

Could be a needs issue, so I won't call that crazy, but you might be wiser to wait until Jeremy Hermida perhaps hits the DL, then you can DL him and get Rick Ankiel. Ankiel could be big power, 30-plus easy, while I think of Hermida as the much nicer batting average/RBIs type.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Cano: .300+ 90 runs 25 HR 95 RBI?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Homers is the only one I have to think about, the others are that easily, I'd say. No reason Cano CAN'T hit 25, I just don't know that I'd call that a guarantee. Hey, 20 shouldn't be a problem, and it's five off, no biggie.

Brick (Brooklyn)

I was the one who picked up Odalis Perez. It is a 30 team league with 30 man rosters.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

That's a deep league. But isn't it still something to laugh at? I mean c'mon, it's Odalis Perez the Opening Day starter!

Bill (Hilton Head)

Is Ankiel more valuable in an OBP/SLG league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

Yes. That said, it's not merely batting average the category that worried me with him. It's the tendency for a player like this to become painfully streaky. Ankiel owners: There's value there, but you must be ready to deal with the tough spells. They WILL happen.

Mike (Indy)

Why no love for my Indians on the offesnes you should avoid pitching to?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

I knew I'd get called out for that, and I actually typed it and then deleted it. In other words, it means they're right on that fringe, but without a huge, massive power source in the lineup, and I'm sorry, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez won't lead the league in homers, just not happening, I was a little hesitant to condemn opposing pitchers facing them. I'd sure think about sitting 'em, though!

Pat (Boston)

Strategy Question... This is my first league with a SP limit (190 starts). If I blow through my starts, do you think I will be to deal off my SP for some big bats? I'm new to roto strategy. Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I'm going to be perfectly honest with you, Pat. From my experience, not a chance. And it's because if you're in a league where you've got opponents as careful as me to track where you're at versus your starts limit, I'll hold out until you undersell your starters, since I know you can't use 'em anyway. It changes the market for starting pitchers, leagues like these, and it's something you need to know going in. So pick your starts carefully all year, because if you go way ahead of pace, you're going to burn up all the bargaining power you have dealing them.

kevin (zanesville Ohio)

what are your thoughts on Corey Patterson and is he a everyday player with Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper on the team?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

I think he'll platoon with one or both of those guys, and since he's lefty, that means, say, five out of seven starts per week on average? So I'd treat him as a near-regular. Not that I'm a C-Patt fan, but if he comes cheap, hey, cheap steals. I just don't like stomaching his poor batting average.

Kenny (ny)

sorry, but i think Pedroia is better. I think Bucholz is better then Chamberlain and I think Lester will be better then Hughes. Cano will not hit 300 and have power like that

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

To each his own on the second base debate. But I will agree with the Clay Buchholz debate of being better than Joba Chamberlain. I have this feeling Buchholz is going to be the better player, though both should be excellent in their prime.

Rob (NY)

Adrian gonzalez of Berkman this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Lance Berkman, better park, more power. That said, this debate is a lot closer than you think it is.

Adrian (Libertyville IL)

Need help on 3b. Had Fields but he is in AAA so I need to chose from Blake, Blaylock, or Imawara. Who do I pick up?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Hank Blalock. I'm back on the Blalock bandwagon, because he impressed me greatly with his late-season surge.

Hal (Detroit)

Your thoughts on Byrd this year? Is Cueto worth dropping him for in a non-keeper?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

You know that phrase "empty batting average"? I'll call Paul Byrd "empty wins." If he weren't on the Indians he'd be pretty much forgotten for fantasy, because the win potential wouldn't be there. So no, I wouldn't make that swap, and it's because as I continue to stress, it's better to hoard the upside (assuming they have roles) right now, and do the fall-back thing to the predictable, so-so types later if your gambles don't pay off.

Lee (NY)

drop zito for meche?...drop lester for jake westbrook?...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

I'd do the first one. Not a Barry Zito fan, and the win potential should be identical besides. The latter, toughie, that'd be cutting the upside for the known quantity. Hey, Indians are a good team, and Westbrook had a strong spring. I think I'd do that too, though it's close. Lester's WHIP just scares me.

lastings milledge

watch out.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

I will. And I'm not joking. What a spring!

Blaine (Colo)

Hey Tristan, quick one: Who gets the saves in TB if Percival goes down, Al Reyes?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

I still think pretty highly of Dan Wheeler. Reyes would probably get the first crack, barring any change in performance between the Reyes/Wheeler duo (i.e. Wheeler vastly outperforms him), so there's that. Probably smarter to grab Reyes now, but I'd be watching Wheeler very closely in the early weeks.

Jorge (NYC)

Who would you rather have: Webb/Tejada or Haren/Dunn?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

Dan Haren and Adam Dunn. Not a big drop-off on the pitching side, and the power return is rather nice.

Sam (bos)

Paulino or Doumit? Need a cather

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Both are pretty solid, but you'll get more quantity out of Ronny Paulino, and he shouldn't hurt your batting average. Not that Ryan Doumit would, either, but if they're fairly even in batting average, but Paulino plays more, it stands to reason he has a better shot of helping in the counting numbers.

Jason (Atlanta)

What's your projection for Zimmerman? Since it looks like he's fully healed, could you see 30+ HR from him this season?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

I could, but I'm more realistically thinking he hits somewhere in the ballpark of high-20s homers, think 27ish. I buy him more because I believe in his raw hitting ability; a .300 season with 100 RBIs isn't unthinkable. My projection entering camp was .285-23-95, and I think it bumps up a little across the board.

Chris (Franklin Park, NJ)

Hi Tristan: I have asked this constantly and it has not been answered. I dropped H. Kendrick for Y. Escobar due to position flexibility and sleeper potential. Was this a smart move? Kendrick is not my starting 2B thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

I think of Howie Kendrick as a small step up from Yunel Escobar across the board in the Roto categories, but if you can't even use Kendrick, I can understand it. After all, no point in having a guy on your bench and riding a terrible shortstop (or third baseman?) as a starter if you can fix the problem. That said, if this is all bench chatter, I'd have rather had Kendrick.

DJ (MN)

Is Carlos Delgado worth keeping?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

Yes, but I'd hope he's not a key member of your offense, not a guy you're counting on for big things. His 2007 decline, I'd say it's for real. I wouldn't expect a lot more than that.

Bruno (the capital of the baseball world)

you trade BJ Ryan and BJ Upton for Derek Lee? alreaady have Howard but I could slip him in the Util slot.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

I would not. In fact, I wouldn't deal Upton for Lee straight up. And I like Derrek Lee!

William (NY)

Assuming Kemp gets 500 AB, do you want him or Frenchy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

OK, let's assume for a second that Matt Kemp gets 500 at-bats, or better. Sure, then I'd say he's a better choice. But the point here is that he's not an absolute guarantee to get that, it's what I've been cautioning all spring. He could get close, sure, but this is a case of two young guys, and Jeff Francoeur plays every day. He's simply safer, period.

Steve (NY)

is ian snell a big time breakout candidate that no one seems to talk about, save for the wins?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I sure think so.

Kevin (Carlsbad)

Non-keeper, Slowey or Cueto?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Johnny Cueto has the higher upside, but I think Kevin Slowey is actually the smarter pick for 2008 alone. His skill set seems to suggest a lot less risk -- remember that Cincy's ballpark is rather hitter-friendly -- so I'd take him.

Bryan-MA

What kind of a season do you think Oliver Perez will have? 15 W's 180 K's?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

I could see that, but I'm not counting on a good WHIP, not at all. Perez should be streaky, and it's clear to me that I'm on the low end of the scale in feelings about him. Not a big fan, not me. It's all about those wins and K's, I don't expect anything else exciting.

Jim (Albany NY)

Andy marte will break out in a big way in 2008, mark that down. Your thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Well, it's his last chance really, and he'll make the team. And Casey Blake is the third baseman, and at Marte's peak he should be better than that. So ... Deep AL-only owners, here's a nice sleeper for you, but I still haven't seen a lot in Marte that makes me think he's figured it out. I'm not ready to pounce with any substantial draft resources, just a late-round flier.

John (Charlottesville)

Do you agree with TMR that Markakis, Hart and Hunter will all go 30/30 this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

No, but each absolutely can, each has the skills to do it. And really, it's not that I doubt any of their power. I love the first two guys, and respect the third a great deal. I just think it's smarter to write in guys like Nick Markakis and Torii Hunter at 15-20 steals, not go nuts in that department. Corey Hart, I'm thinking 20-25 there. But, again, each has the talent to do it, I just don't like getting overzealous with guys like these.

Nick (Omaha)

Keeper league: Parra, Cueto, or Kershaw. This year and next 3.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

I'd be all over Clayton Kershaw. He's this year's Yovani Gallardo type, I'd think. And that's just me being fun with predictions, I just say he's closest to that type of impact guy. Manny Parra is best for this year, though riskiest for the next three. Johnny Cueto is the middle dude in each debate.

Bill (Chicago)

Hey Tristan, when does Kershaw get called up?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Hey, I'm in a "let's have some fun with bold predictions" kinda mood (heads up if you've got a question targeted to that!). So I'll say, hmmm, June 15.

kc oakland

drop Garko for Conor Jackson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

I put both in a similar category, but today, I prefer Jackson. I really think there's a higher ceiling for him.

Jake (VA Beach)

Ok, so predict the over/under for starts with Sheets and Harden

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

If I'm setting over/unders, I set it at 22 for Ben Sheets, 15 for Rich Harden. And I take the over, and the under.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

(By the way, obviously, since I set those over/unders, I'm assuming when I made those picks that they're so-very-close.)

Brad (Philly)

Tristan, make a fun, bold prediction here. Who's better in 2008: Billingsley, Shields, or McGowan? And why?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

I think it's James Shields, because there's nothing nicer for a fantasy owner than a consistent, predictable, no-nonsense kind of pitcher. I love me those consistency kings.

Lee (NY)

hey Tristan, you mentioned kershaw but do you have anymore can't miss players in both batting and pitching?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

I think Evan Longoria is your midseason "can't-miss" type. I think the Rays are absolute fools if he's not up by Memorial Day, which would probably be late enough for him to dodge the "super-two" arbitration cutoff. I'm going to forecast May 15 for a promotion. He's way too good to hold down for longer.

Jake (VA Beach)

Who's your HR champ, SB leader, and RBI king?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

Well, it's not bold, sadly, but leaders rarely are. Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes, A-Rod.

Steve (NY)

TRISTAN, SAY D MAC. YOU CAN DO IT.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I really wanted to, Steve. I really did. Dustin McGowan was close on that question. Bargain bet, folks. Seriously.

Mike (Carbondale, IL)

Over/Under on saves by Kerry Wood. I set it at 16..what are you taking?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

The under. Carlos Marmol has that look, feel, stuff, to be the closer there. And Kerry Wood, is he really any less brittle than Rich Harden?

Eric (Orlando)

How about Wins leader, K's leader, and Saves leader?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Johan Santana, I WISH Scott Kazmir had been healthy as that was my guy, but instead I'll say Erik Bedard, and J.J. Putz.

John (Charlottesville)

Fun, bold prediction for Francouer?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

He's hitting 30 homers. I love that kid. He's going to surprise you, .290-30-100 easy. Just watch.

Jake (VA Beach)

Season 7 of 24: best yet or another let down like 6?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Better than Season 6 but not up to Seasons 1 or 5 standards. And dude, I can't wait another what is it, 10 months? Sheesh.

Steve (NY)

Tristan, I know you've had like 4 Kershaw questions, but isn't it interesting that he's still in the major league camp? Schmidt is finished and Loaiza is bad. Maybe this could be a April or May kind of thing, no?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

It certainly could. The thing I do advise people: Pay attention to WHEN cuts happen in the spring. The longer you hang around, the more likely it puts you among the earliest in-season call-ups. Absolutely, Kershaw could make the team earlier than my forecast, and hey, he could even make the team!

Bryan-MA

Francouer, Adrian Gonzo or Morneau?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Justin Morneau. But I like 'em all.

Miller (Charlotte)

Bold prediction for Longoria: .290-18-70...all after the all-star break. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

That's bold. I'll take that stat line, and let's boost the homers to 20, to add to my earlier forecast of a May call-up.

Jim (Albany NY)

Colby Rasmus, when do you think he gets called up? Schumaker Ludwick there horrible.. thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

All-Star break, but then I admit I'm not much of a Rasmus guy. I actually prefer Rick Ankiel skills-wise for 2008, and you know, I'm not much of an Ankiel fan.

Mike (OH)

Boring question: Bengie Molina or Ramon Hernandez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Molina.

Homer (Springfield, U.S.A.)

So would you take McGowan over both Lester & Owings?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Without a doubt. Not even a contest.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Well, that's all for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours ... Take care! And enjoy Opening Day, everyone!