Keith Lipscomb

  (3:00 PM)

Hey everyone. Welcome to another Thursday afternoon edition. Let's get to it!

Pennypacker, NY

What's your thoughts on grabbing both Prince and Howard in a league? I can play them at a 1b, IF, or UTIL.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:01 PM)

Hard to argue with that. I've actually seen someone do that in a draft this year, I want to say with the 11th and 14th picks in a 12-team mixed league. You'll have plenty of pop and can focus your efforts on other categories for a few rounds at least!

tc (toronto)

I can't believe the Hype about M Bourn. I saw he went for $15 in the mixed league Tout Wars. My auction is this weekend - he WAS my big sleeper - do I need to set aside at least $15 if I want him? Thanks.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:03 PM)

With so many speed sources, particularly in mixed-league play, I would rather get my speed elsewhere if forced to spend $15. But if you're speaking of an NL-only league, then it might be smart to set aside close to that amount.

Beaker (Gainesville)

Better year in an OBP and SLG league...Ankiel or Hamilton?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:04 PM)

I like Hamilton there. I expect him to walk more, which could be the difference.

Jack (Roanoke)

I know this sounds crazy, but I was looking to trade Reyes in a keeper league. My other SS is Han-Ram. Thoughts? Suggestions?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:05 PM)

I don't think that's crazy at all, especially if you feel you're lacking in other important areas. You should be able to remedy those areas for sure with bait like Reyes.

Harvey (Greenville)

D-Train or Ervin Santana?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:08 PM)

I'd go with Willis to bounce back some, with the change of leagues and high-scoring ballclub to support him. He may not get back into the 3s in ERA, but I think low-to-mid 4s is possible.

Brad (Philly)

Hey Keith, fantasy basketball question for you. How would you feel with a keeper trio of Boozer, Josh Smith, and Jason Kidd?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:10 PM)

It's a solid crew, but not a knockout bunch, if you're in a league of 12 teams or more. I'm concerned about Kidd going forward. He already kills your shooting percentage and doesn't score a bunch, but he's not even averaging double-digit assists in Dallas, which worries me a bit going forward. Smith's inconsistency is tough to deal with sometimes, but he's still young and learning. Boozer's the steadiest of the trio.

Jimmy (Cleveland)

Is Velez going to start for the Giants? Can hit .260 with 40 sbs?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:13 PM)

It appears he will start and if he does so all season long, he could approach those numbers, yes. He's been a stolen base monster in the minors, but we'll have to see how he fares against major league pitching, since you've gotta be on base to swipe 'em!

Stan

Do you like Cueto or Volquez this year?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:14 PM)

I think I'm in the minority here, but I like Volquez more for this year, because he has experience facing major league hitters and has taken some lumps already. Hopefully, because of that, he's more prepared to handle the bad outings and bounce back the next time out. I also think you'll be able to get Volquez later than Cueto, since so there's been so much hoopla and comparisons to Pedro this spring.

Pat, NY

After a pretty good 06 and no 07, what are your thoughts on Nick Johnson?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:17 PM)

All my thoughts on Johnson are guarded, because of his injury history. But my colleague Brendan Roberts saw him yesterday and said he was impressed with how good he looked physically, so that's a good sign. I wouldn't expect more than 125-130 games, but if he plays that much, you'll be very happy to have him on your squad.

Dan - San Jose

Bill Butler, Josh Hamilton or Nick Swisher?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:19 PM)

I like this question, because it could be one I look at in September and laugh at my answer. There's no question that Swisher is the only true known quantity in terms of major league performance, but I am willing to take the gamble on Hamilton this season, because his upside is so tremendous and he's certainly not hampered by that ballpark, either. Butler will be more valuable if/when he plays enough games to qualify in most leagues at 1B. I like him a lot as well, but I'd go with Hamilton.

phil (youngstown)

True or False Alex Gordon goes 20/20.. and over/under on 85 rbis

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:21 PM)

Well, I'll say false on 20/20, because while I think the 20 homers is possible, I think he'll remain in the 15-steal range this season. And I'll still say under 85 RBI, although I think 75-80 is a good bet. You'd take that, right?

Raul

Do you think Atkins could turn out to be a top 4 3B?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:23 PM)

Top 4 might be tough with A-Rod, Wright and Cabrera hard to budge from that list. That fourth spot could be up for grabs, though, and since Ryan Braun qualifies at 3B for now, I could take Atkins over him. Could Atkins outperform everyone else? Yes, but I think in the 5-7 range is where he belongs.

C (Omaha)

Cmon Keith, tried both chats with this: Keeper league, would you move Gordon, Atkins, or Y. Escobar for Carmona or Tulo? The other team drafted Longoria for their 3b and despises their only backup, Lowell. I have Braun and C. Guillen. No MI or CI, just a UTIL spot. My top SP are Wainwright, Smoltz, Johan, and Hamels. Also, would you try to get Longoria on the cheap...it is a keeper league after all. Thanks a bunch man!

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:26 PM)

No question I'd like Longoria in keeper leagues. He'll be up in a couple months for good, in my opinion. As far as your proposed deal, I would definitely move Gordon or Escobar for Tulowitzki if they are willing to do that, because in that keeper league, you'll need a SS next year with Guillen being a 1B, and I like Tulo a lot. I'd try to hang onto Atkins, of course, but I'm not sure what kind of owner you're dealing with here.

Dennis

Am I in trouble if Roy Oswalt is my ace? I took hitting with my first 8 picks.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:30 PM)

Not necessarily, Dennis. I like Oswalt, but the key is who you have behind him on your staff. Who your ace is isn't as important as the sum of your pitching staff, so just make sure you get depth and you'll be cool.

Peter (Norfolk, VA)

I badly need a closer. CJ Wilson is available. What are the odds that he gets 25 saves this year?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:32 PM)

Wow, that's really anybody's guess, but I'm not a huge Wilson backer, at least in terms of getting that many saves. Between Fukumori and Benoit, I expect one of them to either steal saves from him occasionally or just outright snatch the job away from him. But that's just my gut feeling.

Richie (San Francisco)

I need one for my last backup spot: Frank Thomas, Conor Jackson, Billy Butler, Todd Helton, Rick Ankiel. Since it's my last spot, I'm thinking I should go for upside. What do you think?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:35 PM)

I would agree, Richie. Why not take a shot at someone who could blow up and do something they haven't done before, but appear capable of pulling off. That would mean your choice is likely between Butler and Ankiel. I like Butler as a flat-out raker, although Ankiel certainly has more homer pop in him. Since we're going on the possibility of breaking out in a big way, I'll go with Ankiel here, just because of the possibility of a huge HR season.

Mike (CO)

Do you think this is the year that Zimmerman can make the leap to #5 at 3B? I think with his new park and a solid lead off guy this year that 90 Runs, 27 HRs, 110 RBI, 12 SBs and a 285 BA is totally within reason. You?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:37 PM)

When answering the earlier 3B question, Zimmerman's the guy I feel could jump both Aramis Ramirez and Garrett Atkins this season. Funny thing is, he hit very well at RFK and not so well on the road, so we'll see if he enjoys the new park and improves away from DC. I think he will and those numbers you offer and realistic.

Chris

Are you a believer in Pena getting to 40 HR's?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:39 PM)

Well, Chris, 40 is a tough number to reach every season and while I do think last season wasn't a fluke for Pena, I'm thinking he winds up in the 32-36 range. But his power is legit. He's always had a power stroke. The numbers don't lie there, so 40 is certainly a possibility. I'm just not feeling it.

Joe (NYC)

Last Bench spot: N. McLouth or Yunel Escobar? thanks!

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:42 PM)

I like McLouth, actually, because of his ability to help you with some pop and on the basepaths. However, if you feel you're a little weak in the infield, it never hurts to have extra depth there and Escobar would be a nice option. Analyze your roster and decide accordingly.

Steve (Kansas)

People are big on McGowan this year but I can't get anyone to give me projections on him - can you help?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:44 PM)

Our projections have him at 15 wins, 4.04 ERA, 155 K and a 1.29 WHIP. I am on board with that and am hopeful for an even better WHIP. We'll see, though.

Alan (Richmond, VA)

Just traded OF Chris Young and SP Adam Wainwright to get 2B Brian Roberts. With my good depth at OF and SP did we make a fair trade or did I give up too much?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:46 PM)

I think you gave up an awful lot, even with the depth you've got. I'm assuming you really needed the help up the middle, but I think a straight-up swap of Young for Roberts (considering your great depth) would've worked better for you. I'm not as optimistic about Roberts' stealing that many bases again, though.

John (Charlottesville)

Is Teixeira ever gonna get back to his 2005 numbers?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:48 PM)

This could be the year, John, at least in the homer category. I think he could hit 40 homers this season, but it's hard to predict 144 RBI. I think 120 is possible. I do think Tex will have a big season, though, just not quite at 2005 levels.

Anthony (OH)

Trade Frank Thomas for Yunel Escobar? It would make Pedro Feliz, Mark Teahen, or Mike Cameron (When he gets back) my UTL. Need a backup 2nd baseman for R.Weeks.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:49 PM)

There's no question it's smart to seek out a quality backup for Weeks, because let's be honest, he's never been the picture of health in the bigs. While Thomas still has something left in the tank, he can't help you when you're left scrounging for a part-timer if/when Weeks goes down.

James (UT)

I think the McGowan projections are fair but could you see him getting 17 wins, 3.5 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP? Mr. Berry seems to have an unhealthy mancrush on him.

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:51 PM)

You could say that about a couple big leaguers, couldn't you? Hey James, anything's possible and those numbers you post aren't outrageous. I just don't want to expect such lofty stats for McGowan this season.

Marc (Toronto, Canada)

What are your projections for Hafner this season? Will he bounce back from last year with a good avg and lots of power?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:53 PM)

I really do like Pronk for this season and while his 2006 season was just crazy nice before it ended prematurely, I think he can return to the 33 homers he hit in 2005 and drive in 110-115 runs again. And I fully expect him to get back up in the .300 range again, too. He really scuffled last season and he's simply better than that.

Brett (San Diego, CA)

Is this finally the season Hermida puts it together? Is he okay to use as my 4th OF?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:56 PM)

Man, Brett, I hope so. I've always liked Hermida and I want to see him do well. He's already dealing with a hammy issue, although I'm sure the Marlins are being cautious with him in hopes of having him for Opening Day or a few days afterwards. He was outstanding after the break last year, and while he won't hit .340 like he did, I do expect him to hit in the .280-290 range and put together a 22-25 homer season. Not sure if he'll ever steal as many bases as I thought he would, though.

Brendan (DC)

Keith, which is the ultimate pairing - Arod and Morneau or Utley and Miguel Cabrera?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:57 PM)

For me, that's easy...I like the latter. Utley and Cabrera both can hit for high average, supply plenty of pop and even the SBs will be closer this season than they were last year.

Tim (Reading, PA)

How about a HOLDS question? Moylan or Lindstrom? Which has better numbers?

Keith Lipscomb

  (3:59 PM)

Well, for Lindstrom it will depend on if Kevin Gregg hangs onto the closer's gig, because I think Lindstrom would be next in line in Florida. If he does, I like Lindstrom a bunch out of the pen. Moylan is not in the closer plans in Atlanta, so you don't run that same risk by selecting him.

John (Niagara Falls)`

Keeper league question? Alex Rios or Matt Kemp??

Keith Lipscomb

  (4:01 PM)

I'll take Rios. He's just 27 years old -- whether or not you believe in that as a magic number or not -- and I think he's still getting better, which is scary.

Keith Lipscomb

  (4:01 PM)

All right everyone. Thanks for all the great question. I'm sorry I couldn't get to more of them. Best of luck if you're drafting this weekend and enjoy the first week of the season!