Jeremy Gary IN

The only problem I see with cubs is the rotation. After Carlos Zambrano and Dempster they seem to all have eras in high 4's. I like that they sent hill down to get some work and brought leiber into the rotation. When Hill gets back on track they need to put marquis in the pen. Also the middle of the bullpen neds to get back on track maybe when scot eyre comes back it will help.

Jerry Crasnick

  (12:59 PM)

Jeremy, Ted Lilly has pitched better of late, even thought his velocity isn't quite where he wants it yet. I think he'll be fine. They just called up Sean Gallagher, who struck out 12 guys in 7 innings in his last Triple A starter. And Jon Lieber should be a decent No. 5 guy on smarts along. Obviously, the Cubs rotation will be even deeper if Rich Hill can get his act together in the minors.

Eric (St. Louis, MO)

The NL Central Division will come down to which closer can fail the least. Whoever ends up with the fewest blown saves takes the division. But it looks to be a solid 3-team competition the entire season.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:01 PM)

Eric, Great point. This is bound to be a huge soap opera all summer, with Wood, Isringhausen and Gagne all struggling in various ways. (And that doesn't even include Derrick Turnbow, who was just designated for assignment by the Brewers).

Michael (Houston, TX)

After a sweep of the Brewers, is there not a case for the Astros at all?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:03 PM)

Michael, Hey, Astros fans have reason to feel good right now. But you really have to wonder about the staying power of a rotation that includes Shawn Chacon, Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Sampson and Jack Cassell after Roy Oswalt. The lack of starting pitching will catch up to them eventually.

Steve (Minneapolis)

How close would you say the Cards have to stay until they get Carpenter back after the all star break? If they are within a few games and they get Carp back they have to be considered the favorites?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:04 PM)

Steve, But do we really know how much they're going to get when Carpenter returns, just a year after Tommy John surgery? For that matter, I don't think the Cardinals know what to expect from Mark Mulder or Matt Clement, who are on track to return before Carpenter.

Nick (Houston, TX)

Look at the number of quality starts in the list of Astros starters you mentioned. You might be surprised.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:05 PM)

Nick, No question, Houston's starters have surpassed expectations. But Backe has a strikeout to walk ratio of 25-to-25, and Chacon's is 24-to-18. I suspect they're living on the edge a little bit.

jamie

i know it's not as interesting as hitting but defense is still 1/3 of the game. According to John Dewan's Revised Zone Rating (RZR, the brewers are the worst defensive team in all of baseball and the cards are the best defensive team in all of baseball (just ahead of oakland). the cubs are in the middle but soriano looks lost in left field. not that duncan is graceful in left for the cards, but at least he catches the balls he gets to.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:06 PM)

Jamie, Thanks for bringing that up. For what it's worth, the Astros have only committed 12 errors all season and have the best fielding percentage in MLB at the moment.

Jon (Iowa City, Iowa)

I think if it comes down to the bullpen the cubs will win. Even if Wood continues to struggle then can replace him with Marmol. And even though Wood blew 3 saves he still has a low OBA, whip and era

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:09 PM)

Jon, This is going to be an ongoing issue with the Cubs all summer. A couple of things worth noting: Marmol already has seven outings where he's pitched more than one inning. He's too valuable in his current role to move to closer. And while Kerry Wood has blown three saves, he's still throwing in the upper 90s, and NL lineups are batting .189 against him. It's not as if he's getting clobbered every night.

Tim(Illinois)

What about Dempster getting lucky with a strikeout to walk rate of 22 to 19? This divison has bad pitching.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:09 PM)

Tim, Duly noted.

Adam (Oshkosh, WI)

Is gagne's problem more machanical or just mental, why does he blow every other save attempt?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:12 PM)

Adam, In spring training, the Brewers were saying that they thought Gagne would rebound this year because he's another year removed from surgery. I just don't think he has the overpowering stuff now to overcome his marginal control. And if you're cynical, you might bring up the fact that he was named in the Mitchell report. But I'll leave that one alone.

Darin (Houston, Tx)

It's not like the Cubs are dominating with their pitching. Ted Lilly looks lost, Ryan Dempster has a K:BB ratio of 22-to-19 (kinda like Chacon) and Jason Marquis is well, Jason Marquis. Right now, I think it's too early to start talking about any team running away with this division. It's a 2 team race right now (Chicago and St Louis) with one team on the way down (Brewers) and one team on the way up (Astros).

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:13 PM)

Darin, I'm not saying the Cubs will run away. But I have more faith that Ted Lilly will make a dent in his 5.97 ERA than Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse & Co. will continue to pitch the way they have.

Ryan (chicago, IL)

what do you think about using the LaRussa theory and batting Soriano in the 9 spot?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:14 PM)

Ryan, Can Piniella find a way to bat him 10th?

Pete(Milwaukee)

Jerry- I'm depressed about my brewcrew right now. We have one reliable starting pitcher, most of the lineup is slumping, our $10 mil closer has blown 5 saves, and we just got swept by the inferior astros. Make me feel better about my boys' chances this year, please.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:17 PM)

Pete, Well, the Brewers led the majors with 231 home runs last year, and the offense hasn't come close to getting untracked yet. And after all the bad stuff that's happened lately (Gallardo's injury, Turnbow's implosion, Gagne's difficulties, etc.), things can't get any worse, right?

Mike (St. Louis)

Is waintwright a legit staff ace?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:18 PM)

Mike, Wainwright is pretty darned good as far as I'm concerned -- not in the Santana, Peavy, Brandon Webb category. But if you run down the list of No. 1 guys on staffs, he doesn't look out of place.

Sam (St. Louis)

Do you see any of the three teams making a big trade before the deadline. Chicago has been trying to get Brian Roberts, and St. Louis has been trying to get rid of Reyes, do you see it happing?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:20 PM)

Sam, As long as Baltimore hangs around, it's hard to see Brian Roberts going anywhere. I could definitely see Anthony Reyes leaving St. Louis, but his trade value keeps getting lower. I doubt John Mozeliak can get anything for him that's going to have a substantial short-term impact.

Displaced Cardinal Fan (Florida)

In your opinion is all of the lineup switching that LaRusa does beneficial or does he over manage at times?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:22 PM)

Displaced, Well, he's getting a lot of production from the Aaron Miles, Brendan Ryan, Adam Kennedy triumvirate at second base. Other than Albert Pujols, the Cardinals don't have a bona fide star in that lineup. So this team seems to play to La Russa's strengths. He can really go to town and use his imagination with this bunch.

Marcie (Carpenter, SD)

With Fukudome's numbers, you'd think he could take over as the Cubs' leadoff hitter. Will the Cubs consider this?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:25 PM)

Marcie, I get the impression that Los Piniella is being very careful in dealing with Soriano's psyche and ego. If you heard Lou on the ESPN broadcast last night, he talked about how Alfonso is most comfortable batting leadoff. Soriano has stunk so far, but the Cubs are going to need him over the long haul. Unless he becomes a total lost cause, Piniella is going to keep running him out there and hope he snaps out of this funk in the leadoff spot.

Stephan Ft. Lauderdale, Fl

What roles do you assume the Reds and Pirates might play in the race with regards to playing spoiler, trades, and/or being the race themselves? These teams are capable of ruining a couple teams chances. And with the likes of Hatteberg, Alex Gonzalez, Xavier Nady, Jason Bay, and others being available, these teams might add a couple for the race.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:27 PM)

Stephan, Teams are usually hesitant to trade within the division, but the Reds and Pirates have some struggling starters (Bronson Arroyo and Ian Snell, to name a couple) whose names will probably be bandied around in trade speculation this summer. A lot of teams need starting pitching -- think of the Yankees and Braves, to name a couple of clubs. So the interest isn't going to be confined to just the NL Central.

Chris B (Decatur, IL)

Surplus Pitching + Surplus OF's + a good catching prospect should = numerous trade possibilities for STL...do you agree, or am I being optimistic?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:29 PM)

Chris, The Cardinals might have some surplus pitching if Mulder, Clement and Carpenter come back. But how much are they going to get in return for guys like Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper, Anthony Reyes or Joel Pineiro?

Cody (Illinois)

Why are there so many doubters on the Cards. Their pitching is fine and is only gonna get better with Mulder, Carp, and Clement. And with Wainright and Lohse I'd take them over Any other 1-2 punch in the NL outside of Webb, Haren

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:30 PM)

Cody, The Cardinals are getting an awful lot of production from guys like Adam Kennedy, Brian Barton, Aaron Miles and Ryan Ludwick. If they can keep it up all summer, great. But you have to think they're going to come back to earth eventually. Is Adam Kennedy really a .330 hitter?

Goran (Green Bay)

Weeks batting leadoff is KILLING the Brew Crew! Yes??

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:32 PM)

Goran, After the way Rickie Weeks finished last season, he's really been a disappointment. He's been drawing some walks, and Ned Yost keeps telling the Milwaukee reporters that he's been hitting in a lot of bad luck. But I can see why Brewer backers are getting tired of waiting for this guy to have a big season.

Blake (Indiana)

Jerry - Would you be willing to say that the NL Cental is among if not the top division in baseball right now? I find it ironic how well they're playing considering how bad the division was last year.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:35 PM)

Blake, I don't know if I'd take that leap yet. But it's certainly not the slam dunk worst that people were making it out to be. Just look at the highly-billed NL West: San Diego has been brutal, the Giants are no great shakes, and Colorado has had a tough early run. The perception certainly has changed since spring training.

Chris B (Decatur, IL)

Jerry, Lohse probably won't be somebody they re-sign(due to scott borasitis),so I look for him to be included. If those guys stay consistent(outside of Reyes) combined with the aforementioned OF's, I think something could be worked out. Should be a good test for the 1st year GM.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:35 PM)

Chris, Yep, at his current contract, with his current agent, Kyle Lohse screams "summer rental."

Jon (Iowa City)

Who is the biggest suprise from the division? My vote is for Geovany Soto.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:37 PM)

Jon, Soto would rank well down the list. He hit in the minors, and he looked very good when the Cubs brought him up last season. In fact, a lot of people mentioned him as a top Rookie of the Year candidate. I think you could pick about six Cardinals ahead of him.

Pat (St. Louis, MO)

How amazing is Dave Duncan?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:38 PM)

Pat, Duncan's approach doesn't work for everybody (did someone say "Kip Wells"?). But when pitchers buy into that two-seam FB philosophy, they certainly seem to flourish in St. Louis.

BK (mpls)

Jerry, thanks for the chat. If each team could make 1 addition to their lineups, what would it be?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:41 PM)

BK, The Cubs lead the majors in runs right now, so offense doesn't appear to be a problem. Unless Bobby Howry turns it around, they need another reliever to take the load off Marmol. St. Louis could use a bat, but I don't think the trade market is going to start percolating until mid-June at the earliest. As for the Brewers, well, it depends on the day. They already signed Jeff Weaver and stowed him in the minors, so I assume he'll be up eventually.

ESPN Management (CT)

Umm......what does this have to do with the Red Sox and Yankees?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:41 PM)

Management, Let's take a break with the sarcasm, OK?

raj (knoxville, tn)

if you only needed 2 strikes to get someone out Kerry Wood would strike everyone out. Unfortunately he always works the count from 0-2 to 3-2 and either strikes them out or walks them. When is he going to grow up?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:43 PM)

Raj, Wood is still new to the role, so he deserves a little more time, dontcha think? I'd gladly take what he's throwing compared to his two NL Central counterparts, Gagne and Isringhausen.

Todd (WI)

I think you are right that things can't possibly get any worse for the Brewers and they are still right in the race. their bullpen outside of Gagne has been pretty solid and the offense will come around eventual. the only major concerns i see is Parra and Villanueva in the starting rotation.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:45 PM)

Todd, Funny how the Brewers were perceived to have this big pitching surplus in spring training. Then Capuano and Gallardo got hurt, Sheets came up with the obligatory health scare, and Bush briefly pitched his way back to the minors. One problem with Parra and Villanueva is, you can't expect them to go deep into games. That puts additional stress on a questionable bullpen.

Jake (St. Charles, Mo)

With the way the Cardinals outfielders are hitting the ball, do you see them bringing up Colby Rasmus anytime before September?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:47 PM)

Jake, When I was in spring training in Florida, I talked to a scout who absolutely raved about Colby Rasmus. But I just checked, and he's hitting .217 in his first 31 games for Triple A Memphis. So the kid isn't exactly making a compelling case for a callup.

Jeff Ithaca NY

does Soriano realize his leash is getting short? Me shows no signs of ever trying to improve on his weeknesses. How long can the Cubs continue to score despite starting every game with 1 out?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:49 PM)

Jeff, Alfonso Soriano has never been a guy who's willing to adapt or change his approach. He does play hard, however, and he makes up for that lack of refinement with some big time skills. I just wonder: When a guy signs an eight-year, $136 deal doing things one way, what incentive does he have to change after age 30?

Bob (New York)

does prince feilder becoming a vegetarian have anything to do with his lack of home runs

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:50 PM)

Bob, I suspect not. But I imagine Prince is already tired of hearing that question.

John (Springfield, IL)

What about Reed Johnson as the one of best off season pick ups? His bat has been decent and his glove superb; plus the Cubs didn't have to give anyone up.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:52 PM)

John, It was a good, low-risk pickup by Jim Hendry. You could tell that Piniella wasn't very enthused about running Felix Pie out there day in and day out, so Johnson is a nice security blanket. In case you haven't noticed, Sweet Lou doesn't deal well with young players making mistakes when he's in "win now" mode.

Toby (Minneapolis)

What is the deal with Jason Marquis? It seems like people (including Cubs management) don't want to cut him much slack. He's not a top three starter on any team, but he seems to fit the bill as a 4 or a 5.

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:53 PM)

Toby, I don't know exactly what it is about Jason Marquis, but he seems to find a way to wear out his welcome. First Atlanta, then St. Louis, and from what I hear, now Piniella has seen about enough of him in Chicago. Too stubborn, I guess.

Jason MN

You would take Wood over Izzy?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:55 PM)

Jason, Yeah, I think I would. Izzy has the savvy and experience to make do with so-so stuff. But he's really living on the edge this year. Say what you will about Wood's performance so far, but I love closers who can throw the ball past hitters (at least, most of the time). As I mentioned before, Wood's strikeout-to-walk ratio, hits per inning and other secondary stats have been very good.

Tim (St Louis)

How would you rank the three bullpens?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:57 PM)

Tim, Chicago, St. Louis, Milwaukee. The Cardinals have more reliable guys in the middle, but Marmol is a category unto himself. And while Bob Howry has been terrible so far, he has a track record for slow starts and good finishes.

Josh (Newburgh, IN)

Jerry, thanks for taking the time to chat with us. What is it going to take for you to believe the Cards might be for real?

Jerry Crasnick

  (1:59 PM)

Josh, If Mulder and Clement come back and can help them, I think that'll be a huge step. And it will give John Mozeliak the flexibility to make a deal or two -- even if it's a marginal upgrade to the offense.

Matt (wiscosnin)

Jason Marquis needs to go, he thinks of himself as a #1 starter, maybe for a minor league team. the cubs have many pitchers that could take over that role, mainly Jon Lieber, who should have been given that role in ST. Marquis is a possible trade candidate, along with a few others, like Matt Murton, and Ronny Cedeno who is tearing it up. what would be good to get in place of them?

Jerry Crasnick

  (2:00 PM)

Matt, Marquis' contract and lack of production mean you won't get much in return for him. And the Cubs couldn't even pry Marlon Byrd loose from Texas in exchange for Murton. So I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Jerry Crasnick

  (2:01 PM)

Thanks for the emails, everybody. It was fun. We'll be back with another debate next week.