Jayson Stark

  (1:01 PM)

Welcome to the Debate Room. Let me just say you don't have to be a resident of Florida, someone who vacations in Florida or even a fan of grouper sandwiches to participate in this chat. We'll take questions from everybody. And if you have a nomination for a surprising non-Florida team that you think will outwin both of them, we'll ponder those questions, too. So let's get going.

Julio: Miami, Florida

Agreed that the Rays have what seems to be better pitching, however, the Marlins, have the livelier bats. Pitching should come around pretty soon which will make the Marlins even more difficult to beat. Top to bottom the Marlins have the better line-up, if pitching lives up to expectations we might have another playoff season, and we all know what happens anytime the Marlins reach the playoffs.

Jayson Stark

  (1:03 PM)

Julio, I'm not sure why you think the Marlins' pitching is so sure to come around. The whole starting rotation won 20 games in the big leagues combined last year. And the opening-day starter -- Mark Hendrickson -- got released last August. I'm big on track record, and I don't see enough track record in that staff to make that assumption.

Richard (Holland, Pennsylvania)

The Marlins have played 9 games against the Nationals, 5 games against the Pirates, 3 against SD, and 6 to the Brewers. They have only played the Mets and Braves in 1 series and have not played the Phillies at all. The schedule has been a breeze and is going to get brutal.

Jayson Stark

  (1:05 PM)

Great point, Richard. Schedule is a big part of this. The Marlins have played the most home games in the division. They've played almost all their road games against teams that were under .500 at the time. And they haven't been to New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Chicago or the west coast yet. Those are the big tests of any team. Take a look at what's happened to the Diamondbacks over the last week, when their schedule turned tougher.

Eric (Albany)

How many wins do you think the "winner" gets? Above .500?

Jayson Stark

  (1:06 PM)

That's an excellent question. I have a tough time projecting either of these teams to win more than, say, 85 games. Anyone disagree?

Justin (ny, ny)

Jayson, similar to Richards comments - the Rays have played the yankees in 2 series (going 2-4), the red sox, the angels, etc... they've had a tougher schedule than the marlins, and their success has been pretty good!

Jayson Stark

  (1:10 PM)

I agree. They've swept the Red Sox, Angels and Blue Jays. So that tells me something, even though all of those sweeps were at home. Nevertheless, this team has had a funny schedule, too. After opening the season on the road, they only played two games outside Florida over the next three weeks. So since April 6, they've had one road trip longer than two games. In other words, the schedule will test them, too.

Tommy (Lexington KY)

If the pitching staff stays healthy, i cant see any reason why the rays couldnt shake out 90 wins this year..the rays have already played a TON of games in the Division and thus far have more than held serve....

Jayson Stark

  (1:11 PM)

I hear people make those kinds of predictions for the Rays. And while I think they're better, I don't see how they're THAT much better. That team won 68 games last year, remember, and gave up 944 runs. So where are those extra 22 wins coming from? Matt Garza and a little bullpen improvement alone aren't gonig to equal 22 more wins.

Craig (ATL)

I think one major point that you're forgetting is that the marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball. If management would spend some money on pitching, the marlins would be hands down better than the rays. so i think that when you factor in the payroll, the marlins are better than the rays because they are being just as succesful with less resources.

Jayson Stark

  (1:13 PM)

Dave, I admit they're guaranteed the league in wins per payroll dollar. But so is Tampa Bay, I'm betting. The two of them combined have a $65.6-million payroll. Their COMBINED payroll would still only be the 24th highest in the sport. Plus, that wasn't the question. The question was which would win more games.

Jeremy (nola)

I Believe the rays can be a potenial wild card winner. Shields is going to be a Cy young canidate. Kas has Ace potenial as well. Plus the bullpen can actually cut the game to 6 innings. And Crawford and the crew can get them enough runs to make them legit.

Jayson Stark

  (1:17 PM)

Sorry, I don't see wild card in this team's future, either -- at least not the near future. Don't get me wrong. I like the team. And I like the upside. When David Price, Jake McGee and Wade Davis arrive -- assuming they all stay healthy -- that's when it's time to talk wild card. But I don't think this year is their ETA in the postseason. It's 2009 and beyond.

Jeff (Tampa)

I see the Rays getting to 85 to 88 wins. Someone asked where the extra 22 wins come from? Simple! The Rays are winning the close ballgames this year. They are confident and have finally learned to win and to hold on to games in the late innings. Last their bullpen had a 6+ era. Not the case this year.

Jayson Stark

  (1:19 PM)

You're on the right track, Jeff. The bullpen has been a huge difference-maker, and that part has been by design. But this team is on pace to give up about 200 fewer runs this year than last year, and that's nearly unheard of. So I'm not sure it's safe yet to project that this is what this bullpen is going to be all year.

Mike (St. Petersburg, FL)

The Rays defense is the silent reason the pitching has turned around from its historically bad performance last year. Clearly, their defense, plus the veteran leadership now present in the bullpen will anchor the team to minimize the lean times and inevitble slumps. Don't forget, the Rays also lead MLB in DL appearances early on and the bats have yet to come alive. The O was the ostensible strong point at the start of the season. I say the Rays get over .500 (barely) while the Marlins will trail off, and soon.

Jayson Stark

  (1:22 PM)

I think I agree with this point as much as any that's been made so far. The Rays didn't just finish dead last in Baseball Prospectus' defensive-efficiency rankings last year. They finished last among all teams in the last 49 years! They're currently second-BEST in the AL and fifth in the big leagues. I'm not certain they'll stay that high all year. But this is definitely an improved defensive team.

Travis (DC)

Do you think playing in the warm weather Florida gives these teams an advantage early in the season? The Rays and Marlins are 13-7 and 12-9 at home respectively, while the Tigers and Rockies are 8-12 7-10 at home respectively.

Jayson Stark

  (1:26 PM)

Yes and no. I do think it impacts the offensive production of teams like the Tigers and Indians to play in so much horrible weather early in the season up north. On the other hand, Tampa Bay had never had a winning April in the history of the franchise. So weather, in the big picture, is overrated. In baseball, anyway. In life, it's never overrated.

Max (Coral Gables, FL)

The rays pitching definitely makes them the better team in my opinion. Andy Sonnanstine has been pretty good so far, and James Shields, aside form the debacle against the Red Sox, has been spectacular, not giving up more than 3 earned in any other start. The Marlins on the other hand..... Their pitching is suspect at best. When Mark Hendrickson and Scott Olsen cool off, and they will, the Fish are in some serious trouble

Jayson Stark

  (1:28 PM)

Max, I generally agree with you. It's easier to look at that Rays rotation and project this kind of improvement than it is to look at that group in Florida and project the same level of pitching success. But I do want to give credit to Mark Wiley, the new pitching coach in Florida. I think he's one of the best in the business, and you can see how much he has already helped guys like Olsen and Andrew Miller.

Sam (Chicago)

Jayson, if you had to choose between Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez, who would you build your team around?

Jayson Stark

  (1:30 PM)

Fun question. I love watching Carl Crawford, but Hanley Ramirez is as multi-talented as any player in the whole sport. He'd be my pick. Feel free to try to talk me out of it.

Justin (ny, ny)

The Rays have been doing all this without the help of Kazmir!!!

Jayson Stark

  (1:32 PM)

Well, they had been until the last week, anyway. Which is another good point. They've pitched amazingly well, considering that the guy who is, theoretically, their best starter has one win. I'm not so sure James Shields isn't really their best starter. But Kazmir did lead the league in strikeouts last year.

Jason (Madrid, Spain)

We have to consider not just the schedule so far, but the division they are in. While i think the Rays are the better team, playing so many games against Boston and New York (who so far has under-acheived) and the like-wise underacheiving Jays is going to catch up to the Rays. The Marlins have the Phillies and Mets to contend with, but if i get to pick my division i pick to play in the NL East any day over the AL East.

Jayson Stark

  (1:34 PM)

Your point seems fine on the surface. But I don't see where it's that much "easier" to face the Mets, Phillies and Braves than it is to face the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays. The Nationals are worse than the Orioles, so I'll concede that one. But I'm not conceding that the NL East is a cakewalk. Sorry.

John (Portland, ME)

Were you surprised to see the Marlins actually open up the wallet and pay Hanley?

Jayson Stark

  (1:37 PM)

No, not at all. I actually mentioned in my chat last Friday that that was their No. 1 priority. Now that they can see that new ballpark coming, they had to make that guy the centerpiece player as they head into that park. The only question was whether Ramirez was willing to go along. I think we know the answer to that question now.

Steven Krajnyk (TAMPA BAY, FL)

Could Dan Uggla be the most underrated player in the MLB?

Jayson Stark

  (1:39 PM)

He's definitely on my all-underrated team. Does ANYBODY know he had 83 extra-base hits last year? And he's on the same kind of pace this year. Check your list of middle infielders who have had back-to-back 80-xbh seasons. You've heard of them! The only other second baseman who has ever done that? How about Rogers Hornsby!

Eric (NYC)

I think you've got to give the Rays lots of credit for getting Percival to close for them. He's been a revelation this year and really helps solidify that entire Bullpen.

Jayson Stark

  (1:41 PM)

When I gave out my April awards, I made him the reliever of the month -- not just because he had a 0.00 ERA, but because he has done so much to change the mindset of that bullpen, that staff and that team. In case you missed the nugget I unearthed in that column, by the way, if the Rays go from worst bullpen in baseball to the best, they'd be the first team to do that since the 1913-14 Tigers. Who knew!

Wesley (Kansas City, MO)

This is somewhat off-topic, but should the teams continue their successes, will the people Florida come out and watch? The Rays and Marlins are averaging 18k and 14k (and the Rays perhaps because of visiting teams' fans). Whose fans will rally behind the team more?

Jayson Stark

  (1:43 PM)

Yeah, that's off-topic, but it's an important question for both teams. Sooner or later, both these franchises have to demonstrate that they can actually draw. I'm not in the group of people who thinks baseball will never succeed in that state. But they've both faced big obstacles. The Rays have never even had a winning season. The Marlins have turned off too many fans with those two fire sales. And both stadiums are mediocre facilities. But now that the Marlins are going to get a ballpark and the Rays are turning the corner, we'll find out a lot about their ability to draw.

Matt (tampa)

What do you think of Evan Longoria's shot at ROY? I know Ellsbury is doing good, but I think Longoria can overtake him by putting up much stronger HR and RBI numbers.

Jayson Stark

  (1:45 PM)

He was my rookie-of-the-year pick before opening day, and he didn't even make the team. That ought to tell you where I stood on this question.

Jayson Stark

  (1:45 PM)

Before I go on here, I was looking for a chance to throw this question out there, and we're running out of time. Can anybody name the Marlins' highest-paid pitcher? And don't cheat!

Jim (St-Petersburg)

About the weather comment: The Rays play in a dome so it is not a factor for them. Do you think we will see the likes of David Price in the starting rotation by the end of the year for the Rays?

Jayson Stark

  (1:49 PM)

I'm aware that's a roof up there. I interpreted that question as a comparison of the climate these teams play in versus the northern teams. But I never actually pointed that out, so thanks for helping out. It's amazing how many people in baseball think David Price could pitch in the big leagues right now. But you'll remember they had to shut him down this spring with some health issues. So health and service-time questions are about all that could keep him out of the big leagues before the end of the year.

JT (Cranston, RI)

Kevin Gregg

Jayson Stark

  (1:50 PM)

We have a winner. Kevin Gregg, at $2.5 million, is not just the highest-paid pitcher on the Marlins. He's the highest-paid player. I sure hope you didn't cheat. OK now, which pitcher is the second-highest paid?

Mabdul (Miami, FL)

You've been talking about this for an hour and no one has mentioned the Marlins bullpen, which has been superb in keeping this team in games even when they've had spotty starting pitching. The pen has an 8-4 record and a 2.95 ERA, 2nd in the NL. They're a big reason the Fish have won so many close games, and that goes a long way in explaining how they've put together a good record despite a small run differential.

Jayson Stark

  (1:51 PM)

Thanks for bringing that up. I wonder how many people walking the streets of, say, Wyoming could name a single member of that bullpen. But that group has been tremendous. A real testament to the Marlins' amazing ability to spot good arms.

Leo (Miami, FL)

Do you think that if the Marlins keep playing well, Loria et al will open up their wallets for some pitching this season via a trade or two?

Jayson Stark

  (1:53 PM)

I do. When they've had a shot to win, they've always been buyers, since Loria bought the team. I give him credit for that. Two years ago, they never actually pulled off a deal, but I've heard they made a serious run at Alfonso Soriano on July 31. Just couldn't quite get it done because they wouldn't trade Cameron Maybin.

Tom (Philadelphia)

Jayson, I believe the Marlins' highest paid pitcher is Kevin Gregg. Wasn't he their highest paid player until the club recently signed Hanley Ramirez to that 6-yeah, $70 million contract. I'd like to point out that the contract might be the biggest bargain in baseball. Hanley Ramirez is baseball's best all-around talent, and he is the reason the Marlins will beat out the Rays this year. But both teams won't win as many as the Phillies.

Jayson Stark

  (1:53 PM)

My understanding is that Ramirez's new deal starts with next season, so he still wouldn't be higher-paid than Kevin Gregg this year.

Jay (Philly)

Mr. Mike Hampton

Jayson Stark

  (1:54 PM)

Hey, great guess. But the Marlins are done paying Mike Hampton. I think he's still the highest-paid pitcher in Marlins history, though -- and he never threw a pitch for them!

David (Clearwater, FL)

Jayson: Which of these teams do you think has a chance of becoming MLB's new dynasty for years to come?

Jayson Stark

  (1:55 PM)

I think the Rays have more "dynasty-type" pieces in place right now than the Marlins do, and they have more on the way.

Ray (West Warwick, RI)

Jayson, what are you talking about? The Marlins didn't have Cameron Maybin 2 years ago! They just acquired him in the Cabrera/Willis trade.

Jayson Stark

  (1:57 PM)

Oops. My bad. Just a stream-of-consciousness chat mistake. But you're right. I'm wrong. At any rate, they did make that run at Soriano. So at least I'm HALF-right.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Which player is a hall of famer/ends up as the best player 20 years down the road: HanRam, BJ Upton, or Carl Crawford?

Jayson Stark

  (1:57 PM)

I had a scout tell me last year that Hanley Ramirez was going to the Hall of Fame -- and he had one full season in the big leagues at the time. So he'd be my pick.

Rob (hollywood, FL)

Still Andrew Miller

Jayson Stark

  (1:59 PM)

Andrew Miller is, in fact, the No. 2 highest-paid pitcher, even though he has less than a full year of service time. Those major-league draft-pick contracts are a beautiful thing, huh?

Jayson Stark

  (1:59 PM)

OK, let's take one more.

Kory, (Columbus, OH)

What do you see the Rays doing with their rotation in the next couple years when Price, Mcgee, and Davis are ready to go?

Jayson Stark

  (2:01 PM)

It's never safe to assume all three of them will stay healthy. But if they do, it puts the Rays in position to trade away arms. The other big question they face is whether they can sign Kazmir long-term. He's the one piece they haven't locked up. So I think that tells you something. Wouldn't shock me if they trade him at some point, depending on how the rest of those pitching pieces fit together.

Jayson Stark

  (2:01 PM)

Hey, they said we couldn't make it through a whole hour talking Florida baseball. But we did it. Thanks for the great questions -- and payroll-trivia answers. See you in the Debate Room next Monday.