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Jason Grey

  (3:01 PM)

Hey everyone...Before I get started, a couple of corrections on my Top 340. There were a couple of typos I didn't catch before I sent them in, and they are going to be corrected today.

Jason Grey

  (3:02 PM)

Joe Nathan - should be 123 not 223, slots in between Paps and K-RodCurtis Granderson - should be 59 not 259.I also accidentally flip-flopped Robinson Cano and Mike Mussina when I was sorting on the Yankees in Excel. Cano should be 130 and Mussina 316 and not vice-versa. The high and low got thrown out so it didn't affect the overall staff ranking list. My apologies for not triple-checking my list before I sent it in.

Jason Grey

  (3:02 PM)

As a side note, I don't know how others do their rankings, but I sort of automate the process a bit, taking projected stats for the balance of the season, calculating the earned dollar value from those stats and then tweaking from there, as opposed to just eyeballing names and picking one over the other. I think that's why a lot of times you see me on the high or low end, as I'm trying to put a little more math into the method. I can't speak for how others do it.

Steve (NY)

Hamilton at #2?! I admire the guts (and won't argue since I own him). Curious as to your thoughts on Johan. Haven't seen you write anything about him, but I've seen enough of him (Mets fan, watch almost every game) to feel like he's just not that dominant any more. Think it's a good idea to trade him while his name and second-half rep can still bring a ton of value? Thanks.

Jason Grey

  (3:04 PM)

I think Hamilton is just going to keep doing what he has been doing, he's not necessarily over his head. My rankings tend to be a little more "out there" I guess because I'm not trying to play it safe. A lot of Johan questions like this today... I certainly haven't seen THE Johan yet, but I;m willing to give the benefit of the doubt...If someone wants to bowl you over, though, I have no qualms moving him - like this one:

Ted (Londonderry,NH)

Jason, please take this, need a scout's insight. Recently been offered Miguel Cabrera and one of Marcum, Bay, Volquez, for Johan Santana in a keeper league. Is now the time to sell him as his numbers after the break last year were far away from his norm or is the dominance on its way?? Thanks!

Jason Grey

  (3:05 PM)

That does seem like a rather large package to turn down, even given a second-half surge from Johan.

Tom (Boston)

I discredit your opinion after having Hamilton #2. I can mabye see an argument for Top 10 but #2? Thats wild.

Jason Grey

  (3:06 PM)

He's #3 in earned value so far, and I think Utley and Berkman slow down a bit while Hamilton stays steady.

Jeff (C'Town)

Jason,I see you were very high on Kinsler (top 10 overall) do you thing it gets 30-30 this year?

Jason Grey

  (3:07 PM)

He's actually already in the top 10 in earned value, and i think he keeps up the steady production 30/30 won't happen - 20/30 could.

Brian (Annapolis)

Why do you hate Furcal? I just traded for him in a keeper league and now you've got me worried. Is it just you dont think he will be back for a while or do you expect the back to linger all season?

Jason Grey

  (3:08 PM)

I don't hate him, just my gut speculation on his back problems really depressing his value.

JD (NYC)

Hey Jason, Alexei Ramirez has been hot lately. Would you rather have him or Polanco from here on out?

Jason Grey

  (3:09 PM)

Ramirez - he's starting to take this job and run with it, and he has more offensive upside.

Dave (San Diego)

Your "Out of the Box" comment on Wandy said his wacky home/road splits were continuing, but last night's solid start was on the road. What do you think of Wandy for the rest of the season?

Jason Grey

  (3:09 PM)

Small sample sizes but 0.98 at home and 6.92 on the road thus far. I only like him in NL-only leagues.

Peter (Quahog)

Talk me off the ledge for drafting Bedard instead of Webb...

Jason Grey

  (3:10 PM)

Wish I could.

Ed(SF)

Grienke got shelled big time last night. Is it time to worry that his ERA will rise big time??? Seems to me he hasn't been as sharp lately, or am I just over reacting???

Jason Grey

  (3:10 PM)

That wasn't a good matchup for him. I think he's going to be fine going forward.

Jake (Albany)

Do you publish this "earned value" anywhere? I would be curious to look.

Jason Grey

  (3:11 PM)

Last Saturday's Grey Matter broke down the top 15 by position and also a monthly breakout.

JR (NYC)

Just a Daniel Cabrera comment here...have you noticed that he's not striking out nearly as many as he has in the past and seems to have better control. I have a feeling the two go hand. He's making players hit his pitches. This leads me to believe he could have turned the corner from being a thrower to a pitcher. Thoughts?

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

His K/BB ratio is actually worse than it was the past two seasons...he's been a little bit lucky as well. He may have turned a corner, but I don't know if it's going to lead to a huge jump in performance when it's all said and done. There are some concerns.

Bryan (Fayetteville, AR)

Jason, Royals minor league question here. What is your opinion on some of the pitching prospects in their system, specifically Carlos Rosa, Dan Cortes, and Edward Cegarra?

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

I like Rosa a lot - think he's a middle of the rotation starter in the bigs. Cortes is more of a fifth starter type for me, but servicable. I don't think Cegarra is going to hold up well against upper levels of hitting.

Ichiro's oddly low avg (.287 at the moment)

I am trying to figure out what to expect from Ichiro--should I expect him to hit .350 the rest of the way (i.e. be the 2007 Ichiro), or is he going to be lucky to even become a .300 hitter? trying to decide whether to keep him in the hopes he'll boost my lagging team avg or trade him and let someone else hope he starts hitting for avg

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

Ichiro's BABIP is about 50 points lower than his career norm, so yeah, we should expect him to finish above .300. Maybe not much above, but above nonetheless.

C (Omaha,NE)

Jason, here is the topic, feel free to address any aspects you think the general fantasy public would want to know: David Ortiz. Thanks!

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

I'm worried that the possibility of season-ending surgery hasn't been ruled out. These tendon sheath injuries are tricky. If he does return without surgery, how much authority is he going to lose with his stroke, if any?

Ameer (Bloomington, IN)

Nick Swisher...all his peripherals, including babip, LD%, and HR/FB say he's been incredibly unlucky. But everytime I watch the guy on TV I can't help but think he looks awful. Can he hit 15-20 hr from here on out with a .360ish obp?

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

Ish... yeah, .240, .340 OBP 15 homers is doable.

Chris (Boston MA)

Do you think J.J. Putz is a good pick up for the remainder of the season even though his performance so far has been noticeable sub par?

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

If a waiver pickup, yes. I'm not trading for him. As I noted this week, he's not throwing as many fastball and his velocity is down across the board. Something might be up.

Ameer (Bloomington, IN)

Chance that Juston Upton has an Arod-like .330/.400/.575 second half? I think those odds are better than most people realize...

Jason Grey

  (3:14 PM)

Perhaps better than most people realize - he's still capable of it - but he's also capable of continuing to show it only in flashes, which is just fine, given his age.

Nick (NYC)

Who would you rather have the rest of the way Hoffman or R. Soriano?

Jason Grey

  (3:14 PM)

Soriano.

Jason Grey

  (3:14 PM)

John (NYC): Which end of this trade would you rather be on without knowing the team needs: The 2 Uptons for Carlos Z and Kevin Gregg.

Jason Grey

  (3:14 PM)

The two Uptons

Lee (New Orleans)

What's the deal with Chris Perez? Am I an idiot for picking him up? Why is Ryan Franklin closing instead? What am I supposed to do with Perez? I must have missed something... your thoughts?

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

You're not an idiot, but rookie relievers rarely get thrust in the closer's role. Closer of the future doesn't mean closer of the now. Franklin is doing the job to the team's satisfaction so there is no reason to move him from the role at the moment. You never know what happens down the road.

Pam (franklin)

Liz, Francis, Maddux, Wolf? Please rank.

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

In mixed leagues I like to try for the upside so I could go in that order. I'd probably swap Francis and Liz though. Depends if you want to be risky or play it safe, and that depends on the makeup of the rest of your pitching staff.

Sue (pittsfield, ma)

Ryan Zimmerman just got dropped, worth a pick up? Or hurt all year.

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

I think so if you have the room to stash him. If he can avoid surgery, that could pay off.

Tim (Wethersfield, CT)

McGowan is on my waiver wire. Is he better than Oswalt, Verlander, or Kershaw for rest of this year? Also, could a Jacobs-CoJack platoon (Jacobs vs RHP, otherwise CoJack) result in a top 10 1B?

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

I think McgGowan is better than Oswalt, and probably Kershaw, depending on how the Dodgers continue to deploy him. CoJack on his own is already a To 10 first baseman based on his numbers thus far, and could continue to be if he stays healthy.

mary warr.i.

need sp have plenty of outfielders..who would you trade dunn or bruce and where would you rank the sp you would you be looking for in return thanks....

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

I think you offer both of them around in an open email and see which one gets you the best offer. As far as what SP it's all about what the market will bear in your league. I can't speculate because what would be offered in one league may not be in another. Offer them up, so who gives you the best pitcher in return and decide if that's enough. Best I can tell you.

James (Lansing, Michigan)

Who should be on my roster Rich Hill or Liriano?

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

Liriano - Hill's been scuffling at AAA

Willie (Ocean City,NJ)

Hey Jason - In my 15 teamer I lost my 2 top SP's in Gallardo and Smoltz. Please rank the following guys for me - Perkins, Francis, Lannan, Suppan, Robertson and Marquis. Thanks

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

Perkins, Robertson, Francis, Lannan...

Mike (Shorewood, IL)

1B is a problem here - Pick up Hafner,Garko,LaRoche or Butler or stick Gordon at first and pick up Headly, Stewart or Crede?

Jason Grey

  (3:16 PM)

I'd probably go the Gordon at first/Crede route

Will (The OC)

Do trade rumors about Holliday make him a sell-high candidate?

Jason Grey

  (3:17 PM)

His road splits have never been great, so yeah, that's a possibility, but I don't know if the Rox are actually willing to pull the trigger on that. I would probably hang on to him.

Mitch (Miamisburg)

Hey Jason do you know anything about Reds minor league OF Drew Stubbs? Heard he is a good prospect, but not much about the kind of player he is or his timetable.

Jason Grey

  (3:19 PM)

A load of talent and athletic ability, but struggling to make contact even in the low minors without compensating power. Overrated, and a ways away if he does makle it

Jeff: (Long Beach CA)

Better utility hitter the rest of the way Adam Jones or Mark Reynolds?

Jason Grey

  (3:19 PM)

I think Jones, as he should heat up a bit and Reynolds will face some playing time pressure a bit. I was faced with this exact same question in a H2H league and I chose Jones.

Scott (Montpelier, Vermont)

Jason! My man! I see by your high rankings in the new Top 340, you?d like my AL Only League team that features Ellsbury, Kazmir, Quentin, Go-Go Gomez, and even ?The Duke?, Justin D. You?d not be happy with my 1Bers (Konerko and Garko), and I?m not happy with them either! Anyone in that first group of 5 you?d sell high on to get a real corner boy? Thanks for chatting!

Jason Grey

  (3:21 PM)

If you can move the Duke for a good first baseman, I would. If not, I'd stick with Konerko. I probably pushed him a little too far down my list anyway to be honest. I had concerns about his bat speed and his injury but I probably did penalize him too much.

billy (nc)

PLEASE HELP....LAST MIN ADVICE!!!! Who do you start in 15 mins? John Maine or Matt Cain or both?

Jason Grey

  (3:22 PM)

I think both could be decent plays today in that park.

Marc (Toronto, Canada)

I spent a ton of money on Hafner and Sheffield coming into this season in my auction, and am obviously regretting it. I am having a hard time letting them go. Is it time? Would you drop them for Bradley, Alexei Ramirez?

Jason Grey

  (3:23 PM)

Both those players obviously have risks...but I'd definitely drop Sheff... I think he's about toast. Hard to bet against Bradley hitting cleanup in that lineup if he stays on the field.

Howie Fanatic (LA)

You ranked Howie Kendrick at 49. What are you season end predictions for him?

Jason Grey

  (3:25 PM)

I have a hard time being objective about Kendrick . 300 10 hr 10 sb - perhaps more.

Brandon (Boston)

I noticed in the rankings you're down on Adam LaRoche, would you replace him with Billy Butler after he returns from AAA?

Jason Grey

  (3:26 PM)

I probably wouldn't do that until we see Butler is actually starting to hit for power, but LaRoche is in the middle of another horrendous slump, just when it appeared he might pull out of it, so he got knocked down again.

Fred (East Lansing)

Jayson,Why does Alex Gordon still get a favorable ranking? Do you realy think we'll ever see an upside?

Jason Grey

  (3:28 PM)

Well, he was actually fairly good last seaosn, just not in line with wild expectations...15 homers and 14 steals were useful numbers, and I expect 15 homers and 10 steals at least with an average better than .247 this season.

Bob Ma

Lost my Holds pitcher in Joba,Any chance he goes back to the pen ? can you rank the tops here for holds : Brocail,Betancourt,Devine,Carlson,ZumayaBoyer,Morrow,Lindstrom

Jason Grey

  (3:29 PM)

I want Morrow, then Lindstrom.

Matt (Little Rock)

Great work Jason, love the scouts perspective on fantasy. For the rest of the year who would you rather have. A young Kershaw or a declining Oswalt?

Jason Grey

  (3:30 PM)

I really, really wanted to believe it was just a slow start for Oswalt, I know the peripheral numbers say he's had some bad luck, but I just couldn't get on board. I may be wrong. Kershaw, provided he sticks in the rotation.

Adam (Bethpage, NY)

Hi Jason, Jeff Clement, Carlos Gonzalez, or Colby Rasmus for the next two years? Manny Parra or Homer Bailey? Trying to target rookie keepers...

Jason Grey

  (3:31 PM)

Clement and Gonzalez, but Rasmus eventually overtakes Gonzalez - maybe not in next two years. Bailey.

Jordan (Columbus, OH)

Jason, you mentioned that you thought you dropped Konerko a little bit too much. What type of line are you expecting from him for the rest of the year? He's killing me! Thanks.

Jason Grey

  (3:33 PM)

Could hit 15 homers with a .250 average the rest of the way, but I'm still a bit wary of the wrist issues. He has not hit the ball with any authority since it happened, and it was probably more serious than they let on.

doug (pit)

What do you think Ian Steward does for the rest of the year. He has 2B eligibility in my league as of today but he's not in the line up this afternoon. Does he get at bats? Is he worth owning in a 10 team mixed?

Jason Grey

  (3:34 PM)

I think that's probably too shallow a league to own Stewart.

Who is Charlie Morton?

This kid has been lights out in minors! When do Braves give him a shot?

Jason Grey

  (3:36 PM)

I think it has to be soon. I profiled Morton way back in April in Minor Achievements so I was a little ahead of the curve. Yay me! Anyway, after getting rocked all over the minors in recent years, he made some mechanical changes at the AFL that made all the difference. He blew me away with his performance there, and has carried that into this season. A legit mid-90s thrower with four pitches now. At some point, he has to be considered to replace Reyes.

Eli (Bardstown, KY)

I'm the commish of a league where a guy has accepted a trade today that included john smoltz. The other owner has not been on today to have a chance to rescind the trade, our league keeps track of last known activity. Our rules state that all proposed and accepted trades will be allowed. Is this an obvious exception to that rule? I think so, because I don't think it is fair to force somebody to check their fantasy teams before they go to work in the morning. This other owner is notorius for letting sit out there for a week or two at a time. Thanks.

Jason Grey

  (3:37 PM)

I think in this circumstance, the commish is entitled to step in if he so chooses, even though the other owner likely knew Smoltz was a risk anyway. I wouldn't have a problem with that intervention.

Evan (NYC)

I drafted Chris B Young for his power/speed combo.. Is he not going to be stealing bases anymore? Its a keeper league so doesn't this devalue him greatly?

Jason Grey

  (3:38 PM)

The whole D-backs team hasn't been running much, but I do expect Young to pick it up a bit - he could still get 20.

Jimmy (Boston, MA)

What do you figure for final stats on Longoria...Will he continue to be an average-killer?

Jason Grey

  (3:39 PM)

I think he can still finish in the .260 range, which is about where I pegged him at the beginning of the season.

Colby Rasmus' brother (Email Smear Campaign)

If you don't talk about my brother Colby!!! Does he make an impact this year? When?

Jason Grey

  (3:39 PM)

He leads today's Minor Achievements column....save the emails :-)

Moe

Parra or Meche? Morrow or C. Perez?

Jason Grey

  (3:40 PM)

Parra and Morrow

Joe (NYC)

Hi Jason - love your approach to fantasy analysis. I'm looking for some info on 2 trade targets of mine: Shane Victorino and Carlos Gomez. I'm wondering why Gomez is ranked significantly higher. I know he's a burner, but don't Victorino's power, OBP, and lineup make him more desirable even with a lower SB upside? thanks.

Jason Grey

  (3:42 PM)

If we're factoring OBP and not BA then Victorino bumps way up. Gomez has shown pop as well. Perhaps there is to big a disparity in the rankings of the two players, even though i do clearly like Gomez more for the extra steals.

Robert (R.I)

Any chance Hairston has more value then O.Cabrera at SS - need the roster space and can't hold onto both

Jason Grey

  (3:43 PM)

Good question, but I just don't see it - I'd stick with Cabrera, whose numbers should be on the upswing.

Zach (Rochester,IN

Nick Markakis has been disappointing lately. Do you think that I should stick with him or Carlos Pena for my utility spot

Jason Grey

  (3:44 PM)

Markakis.

Ethan (SF)

Jason - share the knowledge. If you could grab one hitting prospect about one year away from the big leagues to stash in a keeper league, who would it be?

Jason Grey

  (3:46 PM)

I'd lean towards Rasmus...other considerations were Headley, Snider, Laporta, maybe Gamel...Maybin may be up but is probably another year out from making impact.

Jason (San Diego)

Jason, need a scout's perspective! How would you rank Connor Jackson against Kemp, Hart, McLouth?

Jason Grey

  (3:48 PM)

Kemp, McLouth and Hart have all earned more value than Jackson this year, and I expect them to continue to do so, even though I like Jackson.

joe (nyc)

Chase Headley's promotion ---- discuss.

Jason Grey

  (3:50 PM)

I know they probably waited b/c of service time considerations and to have him work on his defense, but there isn't much left to prove at Triple-A. His OPS is pushing .900 and he's batting over .300 - he's ready.

Jack (Chicago, IL)

Sounds crazy but, would you go with Alexei Ramirez over Cano at 2B? Does Cano start to heat up soon?

Jason Grey

  (3:52 PM)

Not as crazy as it may sound. I do think Cano heats up soon, and I have a small worry that as soon as Alexei's bat cools off that Ozzie will put Uribe back in there for defense. I wouldn't argue with that move, though. Ramirez's upside is tantalizing.

Jeremy (Starkville)

Do you expect Ellsbury to continue to earn like he did in April and May?

Jason Grey

  (3:53 PM)

A slight slowdown as the season wears on and gets into the dog days, but for the most part, yes.

Scott

Scout to Scott...two different trades here... 1) E. Santana for Kazmir ; 2) Cliff Lee or Volquez for Pujols. Are these relatively close trades or just CRAZY?

Jason Grey

  (3:54 PM)

Not crazy, not relatively close. I want Pujols and Kazmir, pretty clearly.

Bill (Kansas)

is granderson a good buy low target? what about c. guillen?

Jason Grey

  (3:55 PM)

Yes.

John (NJ)

Jason- BIG fan of your work. Give me a scout's view of Austin Jackson.

Jason Grey

  (3:57 PM)

There's a lot to like, but i think he's going to take a bit longer to develop than a lot of others think. He's not going to hit for a ton of power, and is not a burner, so there is a risk he winds up as a tweener of sorts, but he's holding his own in Double-A at 21, and I never count out guys with his athletic ability. We need to be patient, though.

billy (nc)

good call starting Matt Cain, 3 earned, one out top of the first

Jason Grey

  (4:01 PM)

I think Cain does eventually get it turned around, the stuff is still there. He'd looked good in his last two starts, and he was at home. We use the same reasoned process to make our decisions each time, and sure we'll miss some, but if you go about your decision making the same way, you're usually right more than you're wrong in the long run. It's when we try too much to play hunches or gut feelings with no rhyme or reason to the decision making process that can get us into consistent trouble. Bottom line, we may not get the outcome we want, but we make the best decision we can based on the information we have, and it was a defensible decision.

Andrew(NY)

Doesn't anyone realize Granderson is a glorified platoon player?

Jason Grey

  (4:02 PM)

...but one that could get 15 homers and 10 steals he rest of the way.

B (Philly, PA)

Dropoff from Brian Roberts to Alexei Ramirez: enormous, moderate, or less than one might think?

Jason Grey

  (4:03 PM)

less than one might think, assuming Ramirez continues to play, but I still think Roberts is going to get white hot at some point.

Tod (Sedona, Az)

Does Billingsley rebound in the second half? ERA is good and 2 to 1 in k's/walks. Does he just need more run support?

Jason Grey

  (4:05 PM)

I would argue he already rebounded in May with a 1.89 ERA in six starts.

Jason Grey

  (4:07 PM)

Time for 3 more...

Mike

Dump Theriot for J. Gullien?

Jason Grey

  (4:09 PM)

No.

S.B. (Vermont)

Which prospect has the most trade value in an AL Only League: N.Reimold, T.Sipp, or E.Andrus? Any of those 3 I should definitely hang onto? Thanks!

Jason Grey

  (4:09 PM)

In a dynasty league, I'd bet Andrus has the most keeper value...but I think Reimold can play, not sure why he isn't in AAA. Sipp is just another middle guy at best.

Jason Grey

  (4:12 PM)

Ian Snell questions - all the indicators are in the wrong directions - walks, K's, and they are making hard contact off of him. He admitted to back pain recently, so perhaps that is more serious an issue than has been reported. He has to be reserved until further notice. Thanks for all the interest, I got to as many as I could...I'm doing a bonus chat on Monday and fantasy amateur draft analysis this weekend. Thanks everyone!