Fantasy Baseball w/Jason Grey
Grey can answer your questions on major league players and the minor league top prospects. He is a graduate of the MLB scouting program, as well as both a Tout Wars and LABR champion.
Send your questions now and join Grey in The Show on Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET!
Jason Grey (2:59 PM)
Hey everyone, thanks for all the interest. Let's get right to it...
Jason Grey (2:59 PM)
All the Jay Bruce questions: not dropping him, might reserve him if I had enough quality OF, if someone dropped him in 12-team, I'd still try to find a way to pick him up.
Hanley Ramirez (Florida)
Am I going to pick my average up?
Jason Grey (3:00 PM)
Well, you're still hitting.294, which is just fine by me. You're not going to hit .330 every year, but I'm not gong to get greedy when you still bring an average that's above par with the rest of the package.
Chuck (Hershey, PA)
Jason, Your KC clubhouse article, no mention about Gil Meche? Your thoughts?
Jason Grey (3:02 PM)
Ran out of space, but I like Meche to continue to bounce back. I actually just went out and dealt for him in an AL league. His peripherals say his ERA should be about a run lower, but he's dealt with some poor luck.
should i sell webb now or wait it out until he gets back on track
Jason Grey (3:02 PM)
No reason to cut Webb. In fact, I'd look to acquire him right now if someone is panicking.
Harold (Cincinnat, OH)
Hunter Pence, is he gonna come around the second half or should I drop him for Robinson Cano for my utility spot? I am in a mixed 10 team league...
Jason Grey (3:04 PM)
Even with a slow start (if we're calling .273 , 10H, and 6 SB that), he's still been far more valuable than Cano. Even though that gap will shrink, I still prefer Pence.
Ray, Hacienda Hts, CA
Now that Wang and Marcum on DL...do you see any of these guys as short term help? Jurrgens, Danks, Cain, Galarraga. Thanks.
Jason Grey (3:04 PM)
Danks and Cain are not just short-term help, they're long term help.
If Oliver Perez is demoted from the rotation, who replaces him?
Jason Grey (3:05 PM)
I think the important thing is that it is nobody who will matter for fantasy consideration, even in NL only leagues
Can you PLEASE tell me who you like for the rest of the season?? Chris Snyder, Kurt Suzuki
Jason Grey (3:05 PM)
I like Snyder, who has proven to be a pretty streaky hitter, but is also able to hit for average and power when he's on. More upside there than Suzuki.
Phil (Fort Bragg, NC)
Jason, help out a Paratrooper! I have a huge trade in a 12 team standard league where I need SB. I give up Chipper, Holliday, Brian Roberts, and Volquez for Miguel Cabrera, Kinsler, Sizemore, and Harden. I think I'm maxing out the value of injury prone, Coors inflated, and rookie stats and getting players who will heat up. Which side do you prefer?
Jason Grey (3:07 PM)
I don't have any issue with the players you got, although it seems like trading for Harden is just asking for trouble. Come to think of it, so is willingly jumping out of a plane...so it probably fits :-) Thank you for your service.
Steven, Chicago, IL
Thanks for taking my question, Mr. Grey! Listen, I know the veto should be reserved for absolutely extreme cases. But does this fit the bill? It seems just very lopsided in a standard roto keeper league (we keep 5 players). Ryan Howard, Manny Ramirez, Curtis Granderson, Josh Beckett and Justin Verlander for Garrett Atkins, Erik Bedard, Carlos Gomez, Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana and Torii Hunter. Thanks for your input!
Jason Grey (3:08 PM)
I may not like it, may seem like too much, but not egregious enough to overturn. You're right, I am a "let the free market rule" kind of guy, so it takes a lot to get me to overrule something.
Jason, you look like Dane cook in that picture, which side do you prefer, Jose Reyes & Markakis or BJ Upton, Theriot and Ducherser. Thanks Mate
Jason Grey (3:09 PM)
Yeah, I've been meaning to get that re-done. That was the only photo I had handy when I started, and just haven't gotten around to changing it. I look like Carrot Top now. And the three player side.
whats up with Justin Upton and Chris Young? either of them worth keeping? either of them going back to the minors?
Jason Grey (3:11 PM)
Jury's still out on Upton, and there is some internal debate within the D-Backs. Young is solidly not going back to the minors. Young is worth keeping, Upton should not be starting in mixed right now.
Jason, what are your thoughts on Furcal when he returns? Picks up where he left off? Will he be back after A.S. break?
Jason Grey (3:14 PM)
The hope is that he returns just before the ASB...but I have concerns about his huge average on balls in play before he went down and the wear and tear stealing may have on his back. .290-.300 with 10 steals is doable expectation, and I'm not betting on a ton more upside.
Is it a good idea to drop me in a 10 team mixed, or will I put up some decent #'s when I get back.
Jason Grey (3:16 PM)
Hopefully, the elbow issue has been solved, and that (along with a hammy issue) were the causes of the power outage, so I'm optimistic.
Yeah, we've "dodged a bullet" with Josh Hamilton. That's been the phrase of the day. But now it's entered my mind that it might not be a bad time to deal him. He's at the height of his value, he's never played a full MLB season and that same knee has had 2 surgeries. Thoughts?
Jason Grey (3:18 PM)
It's been my experience that you just may not get enough value to justify dealing him. I floated him around in an AL league for some pitching help, and didn't really get any solid nibbles. Each league is different, but I'm sure a lot of your fellow owners feel perhaps the same as you do. His value to your team may be more more than what you could get for him, so you just have to keep running him out there.
Justin (Queens, NY)
Is Ubaldo Jimenez worth a roster spot (4 becnh spots) in a 16 team mixed league? He had a solid second half last year.
Jason Grey (3:20 PM)
In that format? He's starting to show some signs of coming around a bit so he's worth stashing away, and surprisingly, he's actually been useful at home so far (2.82 ERA) ; that's probably just a fluke number, but yeah, I'd stash him in that format.
Which Minny pitcher would you rather have for the rest of the year, Slowey or Baker?
Jason Grey (3:22 PM)
Good question - Baker by the slimmest of margins. I might feel differently tomorrow.
Jon (San Diego)
Jason, from a scout's perspective, are you worried about Aaron Harang to point of dropping him in a shallow mixed league?
Jason Grey (3:23 PM)
Not at all - in fact, I'd try to get him on the cheap. Looks fins, stuff is fine, just been a bit unlucky. Peiripheral numbers say his ERA should be right in the usual 3.75 range.
Am I back???
Jason Grey (3:24 PM)
Nope, don't want any part of you. You may bang a homer here and there, but part of me says you're fool's gold at this point.
Everybody seems to be hating on Vasquez, Bradley, and the Rangers. I have watched Vasquez all year and think he has been fairly consistent. The Rangers bullpen even likes the guy. Everytime he is at bat every member of the bullpen holds their finger below their nose to symbolize a moustache. This is to honor the shaven moustache he started out the season wearing. They are religious in this tradition. If you watch a Rangers game, you should check this out. Maybe the bullpen has figured out something with Vasquez. I think they see that something has "clicked" for him this year. Vasquez has finally found a home. This can do wonders for a players psyche. He really is making good contact. He is not overswinging and seems to have grown more relaxed at the plate. I know he does not history on his side, yet he keeps hitting the ball. The Rangers have a list of sell-high overachievers on their roster right now. I really think some of these guys are going to continue to play well. There has been a total change in atmosphere for this team. I can't put my finger on it, but I have noticed it. Are you of the same opinion that Hamilton, Bradley, etc. are all headed for a crash? This seems to be a prevalent thought from the ESPN fantasy staff. Also, would you drop Vasquez for Barmes or Lopez? What say you? Thanks.
Jason Grey (3:28 PM)
Or perhaps Vazquez' unsustainable .385 average on balls in play has something to do with it. I think Vasquez is a perfectly fine short-term play, but let's not go overboard. I don't believe "crash" is the right word, but Bradley is already starting to get knicked up again, as is Hamilton. I've beocme a bit more worried about fatigue becoming an issue in Hamilton's case over the last couple of weeks. There's a difference between continuing to play well, and playing at the level they are currently at. And all the moustache stuff and the bullpen liking the guy is irrelevant in player analysis.
Do you think there is a good chance Harden will be dealt? Chances he winds up in NL?
Jason Grey (3:30 PM)
It's a possibility now that they seem to be falling further back. I know that was likely the plan at the beginning of the season. It's as good a chance as any that it's an NL city, I suppose. I really try not to play that speculation game, because 90% of the stuff you hear about trades never comes to fruition.
I desperately need to fill my utility spot...Byrnes is available and Youkilis with his one eye and presumed second half slump is on my bench. Would you drop Youk and pick Byrnes?
Jason Grey (3:31 PM)
Nope, I think Youk is going to be just fine.
Jim (Brooklawn, NJ)
Jason, what's gone wrong with your fav, Rasner?
Jason Grey (3:33 PM)
He has some marked home/road splits right now, and yesterday;s start was madedening, because he would continually get to two strikes on a hitter and then leave a meatball over the plate. It was just criminal how much of the plate he was catching when he was ahead in the count. He doesn't have the stuff to do that. His ERA's still at 4.50 even after the rough patch, so hopefully he gets stabilized here. I'm still running him out there in every AL league - potentially a mixed league play at home.
Quick Question: what's your take on points-style leagues?
Jason Grey (3:35 PM)
I play in one, enjoy it - prefer the other styles. I think the important thing is that it is much easier to properly assess a player's worth than in "standard" leagues. Take a set of projected numbers for the balance of the year, calculate expected points, and your player decision is made.
I know everyone is worried about Duchscherer, because he hasn't pitched over 100 innings in a single season. What's your take? Final numbers? Thanks
Jason Grey (3:37 PM)
I did an extensive write up in Inside on Monday - bottom line, if he regress to a low three ERA, as he should, he'd still be useful to own.
Eric (Fort Collins CO)
Do you think I'm offering enough in giving up Eveland, Cantu and Cameron for Verlander, Loney and Kubel? I really need wins/k's and average. Thanks
Jason Grey (3:38 PM)
If the question is "offering enough" you offer as little as you can get away with. I always like to make an offer, holding out a piece if I can, and then adding the piece in as negotiations start, so if you think you might have to upgrade a player or provide a throw-in, start with this offer first and go from there. I have no issue with offering those guys for that package.
Fantasy Rookie (MI)
Strategy question- If I'm not counting on winning the win category but my team is competitive in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, would Kershaw or middle relief help my team more than starting pitchers? Love the chats.
Jason Grey (3:40 PM)
A pitcher like Hong-Chih Kuo has more value to you than Kershaw if that is your category situation. I will say that it is a bit too soon to think you've "anchored" your WHIP and ERA so you can go middle relief now, but may have to be prepared to change course.
Jason, what do your scout's instincts tell you about Matt Kemp? 12 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI and 3 SB in last month. I know he still strikes out a ton, but is he about to break out?
Jason Grey (3:43 PM)
I don't see a break out - I just see him continuing to be a decent producer. He's swinging and missing way too much at balls out of the zone, and he's hitting a lot less fly balls which depresse the homer potential. No breakout, but still useful.
John (Herndon, VA)
I roster a big pitching staff in my inning-capped roto so that I can start studs and play good matchups with the rest. I keep starting terrible games and benching gems. Is my strategy mistaken?
Jason Grey (3:45 PM)
It's not a mistaken strategy, just sounds like bad luck. As long as you use the same criteria for each decision you make in terms of who to start, and don't try to always go with "hunches" or who's hot, it's a viable strategy. The key is to have a consistent basis for making your decisions each day, whatever that is, sticking to it, and hoping you're right more often than you're wrong. Certain pitchers obviously start all the time, but it sounds like you're doing that already.
Should we be looking to buy low on Bedard?
Jason Grey (3:48 PM)
I've been struggling with this, because it's easy to be wrong and look like an idiot, but they don't pay me to be wishy-washy. I'm trying to avoid Bedard going forward if i can. He's a pitcher that relies so much in his hip turn to generate leverage, that hip and back issues this season are troubling signs for a pitcher that has never thrown 200 innings. I don't think you can get fair value for him, so if you have him, you need to keep him and hope for the best, but I'm not trying to acquire him unless it's at a steep discount. I may be wrong, but it will save me on aspirin.
I'm not sure where I was going overboard. In fact, just the opposite. I stated that I think that the claims of impending doom were a bit drastic. Your answer gave me some pause. So you are saying that a good team atmosphere has no relevance on a players performance? I hear it all the time that a bad atmosphere ruins a talented team. The opposite has to have some truth to it for the former to be true. I have to strongly disagree that intangibles like atmosphere have no bearing on a players output. I think they have more to do with a players production within their skillset than most people think. Now, if we are just talking about players in a vacumn then that is a different story. I am not talking about plucking Vasquez off of the team and placing him somewhere else. That would be a scout's way of thinking. But, that method of analysis is flawed if he is staying with the team. I'm talking about this team, this season, and that atmosphere. I can understand if you don't like the guy's skillset. I can't understand how you can discount atmosphere as an influence in a players production. Predicted production and analysis are pretty much interchangable. I think most managers believe that "moustache stuff" is very relevant to a players analysis. Otherwise, we would just use robots, computers, and statisticians to run the team. I don't mean to be a contrarian, I just think there is a bigger picture to consider. I think alot of people would agree. There is a range a player is capable of producing. Intangibles like atmosphere govern where within that range a player produces. Do you disagree?
Jason Grey (3:51 PM)
Short answer: I'm in the clubhouse every day talking to players, managers and GM's so potential effects of intangibles are not lost on me. That said, Vasquez's unsustainable .385 average on balls in play and inflated homers per flyball rate are things I trust in more than moustache fun.
Scott, Groton CT
David from Frisco Texas isn't the most succinct guy out there, huh? start the big unit tonight?
Jason Grey (3:53 PM)
He had some points to make, some points worthwhile to post but it was just way too verbose, and I figured I'd be spending too much time editing it, so I just posted it as is.
Don I. (NYC)
How good is Ben Sheets right now? With his injury history, is he a great sell high guy or do you say hold on because of the fact that he is in a contract year? If I'm selling Sheets and looking for power, how high can I set my sights?
Jason Grey (3:55 PM)
I actually wrote from the first time I saw Sheets in Spring Training this year in one of my clipboards that I was all over him this season. I'm not backing off of that now. He's an ace right now, and I would not accept anything less than whatever value an ace pitcher has traditionally gotten in your league. You should set your sights on an absolute stud hitter.
Jason Grey (3:56 PM)
Oh, I forgot to answer the Big Unit question.....not trusting him for tonight..,just my opinion.
Hamilton and Saunders for Braun and Hamels. How's that grab ya?
Jason Grey (3:58 PM)
I like the Braun/Hamels side mostly because I don't trust Saunders at all and his lack of an out pitch is going to come back to bite him.
Boston (yeah, all of Boston)
What are realistic expectations of Justin Masterson? Not that we'll BE realistic about him, but...any projections?
Jason Grey (4:01 PM)
It's tough because his rotation spot is on a thin thread...even with Colon out for a bit, Buchholz is pitching well. It;s tough to peg without knowing how many starts he's going to get. I could make a legitimate case that Buchholz is the more valuable pitcher for the second half. You look at the peripheral numbers and Masterson;s expected ERA should be close to five. I do like him, but there are bumps in the road coming.
Jason Grey (4:02 PM)
Time for 3 more in the queue...
Who's the one pitcher you would pick up for the rest of the year that's less than 50% owned?
Jason Grey (4:05 PM)
Hmm, this is just off the top of my head, not having a chance to look at the full ownership list, but Scott Baker might qualify.
Not cool. You would have poked holes in it if I left the door open. Instead, you make fun of a me for putting in some effort. I'm sorry I wasted your time. I won't make that mistake again.
Jason Grey (4:06 PM)
(sigh) I was not making fun of you at all. You had a legit question and point of view, but in a chat the point needs to be a little more succinct. I appreciated the time you put into crafting your thoughts, and it was a legit question, which is the reason I answered it. Most of the other chatters would have looked at the length and dismissed it. Thought I was being nice, you can't give a dissertation though.
What do you think about Kelvim Escobar? Lighting in a bottle?
Jason Grey (4:08 PM)
I want to see how his first rehab start goes first. Torn labrums are a lot more difficult to predict recovery from, but he's worth monitoring as he starts to come back. There's at least the possibility he comes back in the 'pen, where I wouldn't be interested.
Buzzer beater PLEASE: Would you drop Kershaw or Ryan Franklin for Slowey? AND Jesus Flores or Jeff Clement from here on out?
Fred Lewis 12 team mixed short bench, worthy of a roster spot?
Jason Grey (4:11 PM)
Yes, he's rebounded from a tough May, and should be solid enough in that format going forward.
Jason Grey (4:11 PM)
Thank you for all the questions. I obviously can't get to them all, but I really appreciate you taking the time out of your day to ask, and I wish I could respond to everyone. I'll be doing another chat on Wednesday at 3 PM.
BUZZER BEATER PLEASE: Would you drop Kershaw or Ryan Franklin for Slowey? AND Jesus Flores or Jeff Clement from here on out?
Jason Grey (4:13 PM)
Forgot to answer this one....I would stick with what you have....and Clement because of the upside. Thanks again, everyone.
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