Fantasy Baseball w/Brendan Roberts
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Brendan Roberts (3:01 PM)
Hello, everyone! Hope everything is enjoying the nice respite the All-Star break provides. By tomorrow, though, I'll be ready to see some boxscores.
JD (NJ)
BR, should Chris Davis owners be worried about the impending return of Hank Blalock?
Brendan Roberts (3:02 PM)
It sounds like the Rangers are still going to try to get him in the lineup, but I could see him sitting an extra game a week. No biggie. Plus, don't count on Blalock's return until it actually happens. He has taught us that.
Dan (Boston):
Brendan: First Pierre's, now sounds like Taveras is on the way out! In a HTH league I like to have a SB guy--will Rios and A-Rod take up the slack, or should I pick up another one dimensional player?
Brendan Roberts (3:03 PM)
Tough to find one-dimensional players nearly as good as Taveras, and I doubt there's anyone on the FA wire who's close. If there is, go for it, but here's where the head-to-head format favors you. You can pick up the slack in another category, not just with another player.
Todd (MPLS)
AL-only, CRAPPY CATCHER question. I'm rostering Olivo... Who should I replace him with: Salty, Ramon H., Varitek, Buck, Max Ramirez, Barajas?
Brendan Roberts (3:05 PM)
I encountered a very similar question last night while looking for a Varitek replacement (he doesn't make the cut above either). I'd probably lean toward Ramon Hernandez. At least when he's healthy, you know he can provide better than average numbers for a catcher.
Mike (NJ)
Not much advice for keeper-league owners on ESPN. Who are your top 10-20 keeper batters?
Brendan Roberts (3:07 PM)
I'm not going to list them all here, but I will say that we plan on having a Top 100 keepers list sometime in late August, to at least give you an idea. Also, I must say that I don't change hitter rankings much to accomodate for keepers when I list those. Except for yet-to-break-out prospects moving up slightly, I stick with the approach that the best players this year will also be the best next year.
KillJoy, The Hamptons
I was stacked at OF and really weak at SP?.Here is the deal I just did: I got Longoria/Edison V. for Miggy/Milton B./ H. Matsui. It leaves me with Hamilton/Ichiro/Ankiel for my 3 OF?s (w/ Doumit/DeJesus as reserve OF?s). Longoria and the Rays have cooled down and Miggy has heated up?..did I screw up??
Brendan Roberts (3:08 PM)
I do like Miggy for the second half, but I think you got enough back there to make the deal worthwhile. I like that Volquez deal. Unlike many of my ESPN compadres, I believe he'll continue to dominate, for the most part.
Jared (Philly)
Who's the next pitcher to be traded: Bedard or Burnett? Any where (Philly)?
Brendan Roberts (3:10 PM)
I think Burnett will be traded. Not sure on Bedard. But I think Burnett goes somewhere, and I have a sneaking suspicion it'll be somewhere in the NL (like Philly). The Jays have been working him hard and showing off his "sudden" stamina and durability, so I think they're displaying him to potential trade candidates.
Matt (Philly)
Brendan, I always think I'm in the wrong chat when I see your picture. You look like you should be running a NASCAR chat! Do you, btw? Now for my (related) question - in a 6x6 H2H league, would you be comfortable with Rollins, Kemp, and McClouth as your only source of SPEED (get the reference?), or should I play Weeks at second over DeRosa to improve my SB potential?
Brendan Roberts (3:12 PM)
Ha, ha. Nope, no NASCAR chats. Come on, goatee, glare, etc. Clearly a baseball chat. Most people tell me I look like Todd Jones without a hat on (except for the different facial hair). That's quite an accomplishment (he said facetiously). ... I think you're OK with that trio, especially in a head-to-head league. You can make up for it elsewhere.
Peter, Charlotte
Carlos Quentin: I'm having trouble believing. Am I wrong in thinking a dropoff is coming? Thanks!
Brendan Roberts (3:14 PM)
You're not wrong, but I think it'll only be a half-dropoff, if that means anything. I think he'll either continue to hit homers and drop off everywhere else, or he'll continue to hit and drive in runs but not hit homers. Were I to guess, I'd say the former happens. That means he's a sell-high guy, but don't feel you must move him. He'll still be plenty serviceable.
Eric (MA)
Someone dropped Alex Gordon in a keeper league. If I pick him up, and I probably will, I'll have him next season also. Do you expect better numbers in the 2nd half? Better numbers next yr? Thoughts on Gordon?
Brendan Roberts (3:15 PM)
Yes, yes, and yes ... but only because he has been so subpar. Look, Gordon is going to be a fine player, but he is not going to reach the upside he's capable of until he a) hits lefties better; and b) hits better on the road. Longoria seems to have passed him because he has fewer holes (other than pitchers who have good breaking stuff). Yes, pick him up, but don't expect him to save your team.
dan(Minn)
Any news on Saito's MRI?
Brendan Roberts (3:16 PM)
No news on the specifics, but just read where Torre expects him to go to the DL. Pick up Broxton if he's available (likely only in a shallow league).
JD (NJ)
Better 3B for the second half: Cantu or Zimmerman?
Brendan Roberts (3:17 PM)
Probably Cantu, by default. I have my doubts about Zimm. It sounds like doctors were split as to whether his shoulder needs surgery, but he elected rehab. So what happens if the shoulder is bothering him again in late August -- and he plays for the Nats, who are a zillion games back? I can't trust him to stay in there.
Nick (Sioux Falls)
Need homer help, would Dunn be enough return for Mariano Rivera? I have 5 closers right now, and can afford to lose one...
Brendan Roberts (3:18 PM)
Yeah, I think maybe you could get a throw-in, and you might try, but they're close enough ranked overall that you could justify the move in your scenario. It helps that Dunn is durable, and you have a good idea what you'll get from him (famous last words, notwithstanding).
Jim (Richmond)
What kind of numbers do you expect from Grienke here on out?
Brendan Roberts (3:20 PM)
Inquiring minds want to know ... I wondered that very question a week ago, so I watched his last start. Ya know, I did worry about him wearing down (he already has 124 IP), but the velocity is still there and his mechanics are sound. I say he has nearly as strong a second half as he did the first.
Adam (Newtown, PA)
Dave Bush has been hot his last few starts...a few lucky outings or a sign of things to come?
Brendan Roberts (3:21 PM)
Just a little market correction. He's a better pitcher than he was in April, and his numbers are just getting to where they should be. Is he going to reach that high potential we all thought he would? No, but he'll be worth keeping on a 12-team mixed roster.
Rob (State College)
Brendan - I won my stealer league matchup and can force a swap on my opponent. I'm looking at giving up one of the following: Dice-K, Nolasco, or Cain, and I can take one of: Billingsly, Sheets, or Hudson. I'm leaning towards giving up Nolasco and taking Billingsly. I like Sheets, but feel that Billingsly is a bit safer healthwise and has really made a leap. What's your opinion?? Thanks for the help!!
Brendan Roberts (3:23 PM)
I don't know that I'd consider Billingsley safer. Sheets is in a contract year (I think), and there's really been no talk of his arm bothering him. (Billingsley did have an "arm scare" in March.) I'm on the Sheets bandwagon, and I'd take him (yes, for Nolasco), but I couldn't present a case against you taking Billingsley either. I like him, too, just not as much.
john ( wash )
C. Carpenter have any value for the final two months?
Brendan Roberts (3:25 PM)
Naturally, it depends upon the league size, but I'd lean toward no in a standard league. The Cardinals will be careful with him, because no matter how well they're doing, they still aren't going to sell out to win this year (which is why they won't make any big trades, methinks). He'll pitch in relief, he'll get a few five-inning starts, and then they'll shut him down. Not worth it in a mixed league.
Bob (DC)
Do you expect Mcgowan to return this year?
Brendan Roberts (3:26 PM)
Getting conflicting reports on this ... I was reading he hopes to be back sometime in August (late), and then Gammons said last night he is done for the year. As much as I like Peter, I still have hope for the previous scenario, and I think that'll happen. McGowann at least is indicating that.
Mike (Indy)
Will Daisuke Matsuzaka's nickname at the end of the season be Dice-K or Dice-BB?
Brendan Roberts (3:28 PM)
Ha! Love a (tastefully) humorous question. I could see it now: Daiswalke Matsuzaka. Regardless, that's just how he puts runners on base, and it's no big deal to me. Just like when Unit was in his prime, and other great pitchers, lots of K's, lots of walks, few hits, plenty of wins. I think Dice-K is fine, although I must admit that shoulder malady a month ago did put a hint of doubt in my mind about his health.
Dan (NJ)
Who is ranked highest at the end of the season. Kemp, Granderson or Burrell?
Brendan Roberts (3:29 PM)
I think Burrell is in for a massive second half. He's on a contract drive and had a similar surge last season. Plus, look at that lineup -- and they're all healthy -- and tell me he won't get a lot of fastballs to hit. Yikes! Kemp checks in behind him, while Granderson's steals drop lowers his value.
Will (The OC)
Drop Alex Gordon for Joey Votto?
Brendan Roberts (3:30 PM)
For this season, yes I would. I think Votto will show more power in the second half, and not at the expense of his batting average.
Brandon (DC)
Is Broxton a better option than my current closers: Sherrill, Todd Jones, Marte?
Brendan Roberts (3:32 PM)
Hmm, depending on where you sit in the saves category/standings. It's all about whether you want to play for now or think end of season. If you're scrapping in the category, I'd probably take Broxton over all three of those guys for the next 2-3 weeks (assuming Saito hits the DL). But if you're playing it safe, stick with the closers you brung to the dance.
Todd (Fargo)
What happens to Beltre's Value if he is traded to Minnesota?
Brendan Roberts (3:33 PM)
Not much, honestly. Maybe it goes up because he's rejuvenated (things don't sound so chippy there in SEA right now), but he is who he is, and there's not enough of a ballpark difference to be noticeable in the stats.
Will (The OC)
Is Hamilton wearing down in the Texas heat?
Brendan Roberts (3:34 PM)
Sure doesn't look like it to me. No, he's not putting up April/May numbers, but he's still quite productive. I caught an at-bat of him over the weekend, and he fought off a tough pitch and looped it to left for a single. That's the sign of a true RBI guy and tough hitter to get out. He's still "on it," and I think he'll stay that way.
Will ( Las Vegas)
What do you think of Mike Jacobs and Anibal Sanchez for next year?
Brendan Roberts (3:35 PM)
Jacobs -- about the same as this year. As a guy who can't hit lefties, he has a ceiling. Good power, but we know what to expect. As for Sanchez, I'm not expecting much. He seemed more "smoke and mirrors" in terms of his stuff when he first came up, and that was before his arm injury. I'm not a fan.
Craig (PA)
Overall production, who would you rather have the rest of the way: Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez??
Brendan Roberts (3:36 PM)
Mark. Teixeira. For. President. Kidding, of course. But I think he's in for a HUGE second half (a la 2007). And that's even if he gets traded; I'm hearing rumors that the Braves have asked around about dealing him. Plus, Manny has been known to take it easy PT-wise in September.
Wally (Buffalo, NY)
Do you see Beckett movinging into the top ten starters by the end of the season?
Brendan Roberts (3:37 PM)
No. He'll be solid, but Top 10 is reserved for low-WHIP/ERA pitchers. Beckett has the K's and wins, but he has too many innings lapses and big leads to pitch with to be a top-10 pitcher.
Ali (TX)
Brendan, Chris Young, Meyers or Buchholz for the 2nd 1/2? All on my wire!
Brendan Roberts (3:38 PM)
Hmm, if you can accomodate him on your bench for a few weeks, definitely Young. Still a good pitcher, and he'll have the juice to pitch after so much time off. I also really like Buchholz, too, and I'd rank him second.
Will (The OC)
If Mat Gamels shows up, is he worth picking up for Gordon, Headley or Delmon Young?
Brendan Roberts (3:40 PM)
Well, let's see. Your situation might be different by then, and we can't be sure how much PT Gamels will get. If/Because the team is in a pennant race, they'll probably be hesitant to turn a starting job over to Matthew. I really like him, but I wouldn't expect him to outproduce those three when he arrives. If he does get full-time PT, I see him outproducing Headley, at least.
Ross (Baton Rouge, LA)
Do you see Jason Bay being traded. His name came up alot in trade talks earlier this year, and he is putting up awesome #'s. Do you think he is going anywhere?
Brendan Roberts (3:42 PM)
Ya know, that's an interesting scenario, and I just heard it the first time last week that the Pirates are actually asking around. (Might be a rumor, though.) With how well he's doing, I could see PIT cashing out, getting a young RH starting pitcher and clearing up room for Steve Pearce. I can't speculate on anything, but I think there's at least a chance of that happening.
Wes (NC)
Follow up on that keeper list question. Any love for real fantasy leaguers? Auction value along with that keeper list?
Brendan Roberts (3:43 PM)
Hey, we're all real fantasy leaguers! Auction league keeper rules are so varied that it's tough to write an all-encompassing keeper piece on it. I've tried myself, but I've found it just hits too few people. I'd suggest bucking up for our Answer Guys service; that's one-on-one communication there.
Brian(Chicago)
Hey Brendan,Would you trade A-Rod to get Crawford and Atkins? Is this enough to give away A-Rod?
Brendan Roberts (3:44 PM)
Yes, that's enough back, in my mind. I think, using historical stats as a guide, that Crawford and Atkins will have huge second halves. A-Rod is No. 1 in my eyes, but assuming you're using Crawford to replace a sorry OF, then it's definitely worth it to you.
Mike (NJ)
Worth pickung up Freddy Garcia?
Brendan Roberts (3:45 PM)
Not outside of AL- or NL-only leagues (not sure where he'll end up). Remember, he wasn't that great even before his arm troubles. And I had a scout tell me years ago that he'd have arm troubles because of his short-arm delivery. He has work to do before he becomes viable (and pain-free) again.
Jim (FL)
Johan Santana- are you buying or selling?
Brendan Roberts (3:46 PM)
Definitely buying. Renowned second-half/August pitcher who I'd get my hands on any way I can. I think the Mets actually stay hot and provide some nice fantasy stories in the second half.
Evan (New York)
What about Jaime Garcia?
Brendan Roberts (3:47 PM)
Both Volstad and Garcia ... I think we'll just see cups of coffee or just a hint of what they can do. I don't think they're ready for more than that on this level.
Steve (NY)
Who has better value. Josh Johnson or chris volstad?
Brendan Roberts (3:48 PM)
I actually like Johnson. Sounds like the Marlins will be cautious with him, and get this: He was clocked at 95 mph regularly in one of rehab starts. Before his injury, he was throwing 92-93 mph. This is not uncommon, but it's definitely a good sign he's bouncing back well. I could see a lot of good five- or six-inning starts from him in the second half.
Joel (East Longmeadow, MA)
So I have too many Rays on my H2H roster (Longoria, Upton and Crawford), when they slump it really hurts. I have an offer on the table of Vlad for Crawford. Would you do that deal?
Brendan Roberts (3:49 PM)
No, I still like Crawford more. And besides, when the Rays are on, which they very well could/should be again in the second half, you double your pleasure. I guess I'm a "double down" type of guy (just don't call me "Mikey") who doesn't mind too many guys from one team, as long as they're good.
James: Detroit
Can I trust C Guzman at SS the rest of the way? I need to decide who to drop among Tulo, Sheff and Pierre. I'm leaning towards Tulo. Thoughts?
Brendan Roberts (3:51 PM)
I like Tulo better than Guzman the rest of the way. He should be back from his "hand cut" soon, and I still think big things for him. Same with Pierre (although he'll be longer). Sheff ... if his DH-only status hurts you, cut him. But I don't think Guzman is any steal, if that's what you're asking.
Ryan (Circleville, OH):
Would you rank Longoria in the top 5 third baseman for the 2nd half?
Brendan Roberts (3:52 PM)
Maybe not quite that high (when you have D.Wright, A-Rod, Aramis, Atkins ...), but at least top 8-10. Yes, big second half on the way to the ROY.
Joe (NY)
Who should I expect more out of for the rest of the year? Wainwright or Brett Myers?
Brendan Roberts (3:52 PM)
Wainwright. Because at least he has pitched well this season. I have little or no trust in Brett Myers right now. I'd take upside.
Steve (NY)
Tell me something about Spills. Do the Rockies have long term plans for him? Sell High?
Brendan Roberts (3:53 PM)
Ryan Spillborghs? I think the Rox have him projected as a platoon/fourth outfielder who plays Sundays and versus lefties. Unfortunately, that's it, although a trade of Matt Holliday could change that, at least temporarily.
OVER HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Keep or drop Jay Bruce? Please dicuss.
Brendan Roberts (3:55 PM)
FOUND YOU! Depends upon who's available, but I think he'll do about what he's doing now to run out the string. Maybe a little higher average, but that's it. In other words, maybe No. 4 or 5 OF status in mixed leagues.
K (NJ)
Who warrants a pickup for the rest of the year- Volstad, Maholm, or Bush?
Brendan Roberts (3:55 PM)
I don't know about the rest of the year, but Bush deserves the pickup at least for the rest of the month. With SPs, that's about all you can ask for.
Fernando (Pembroke Pines)
Hi, is Kyle Lohse for real? Will he have a similar 2nd half. Personally I can't see it, what are your thoughts
Brendan Roberts (3:57 PM)
I can't see it either, although I did hear him talk about some of the changes Dave Duncan has made with him, and his hot pitching is somewhat believable. But the thing that bothers me is his lack of K's overall, Not only does that not make him attractive in fantasy, but it means a lot of balls are going into play. Sure enough, his "BABIP" number is a little higher than normal. I think he cools down, but he doesn't fall apart altogether.
Ryan (Boston)
In a vaccuum who do you want. Sizemore or A. Gonzalez?
Brendan Roberts (3:58 PM)
Definitely Sizemore, if this is a 5x5 league. In our midseason Top 340, which will come out later this week, I ranked him, like, No. 11 or 12 overall, probably higher than most. Dude is a five-category, durable machine.
Ron (NYC)
Pedro Martinez... drop him like he's hot or keep him on your roster?
Brendan Roberts (3:59 PM)
I'd keep him a little longer, Ron. Sounds like no DL for this latest "shoulder tightness," and I still believe in him. High K total indicates he still can be nasty. Just needs to show better control, which is not usually a problem for him. I'm keeping the faith.
John (Phoenix)
Buzzer Beater! Which two of these four start batters would you start this week: Adam Jones, Marcus Thames, Adam Laroche, or Luke Scott?
Brendan Roberts (4:00 PM)
Buzzer beater is right ... only have time for 2-3 more. I'd take LaRoche. The Pirates have four games at Colorado.
Kevin (VA)
Will Carlos Delgado have a big second half?
Brendan Roberts (4:01 PM)
I don't know about big, but I noted in my last column that his three-year splits indicate he's a much better second-half hitter. I'm buying him right now.
kevin (boston)
drop oswalt for baker?
Brendan Roberts (4:02 PM)
That's a tough one. Baker IS hot, but I'd wait to see what Oswalt's status is first. Looks like they're trying to line him up for July 22. If that's the case, keep him. If it looks like he'll be out till beyond that, make a swap, assuming this is a shallow league.
Jack (Miami)
CC Sabathia is worth 3 keeper points, we get 8 points total to use. It is an NL only keeper(obviously) league. What should I give up to get him?
Brendan Roberts (4:03 PM)
Last one ... Not sure exactly how much the top guys go for, but I'd pay top dollar. I doubt there'll be too many guys like him to spend your money (although there are some nice 2008 draft guys to consider if you have a minor league roster), and you don't want to chince yourself out of getting an elite pitcher.
Brendan Roberts (4:04 PM)
OK, gotta expand on those top NL 2008 Draft guys ... The three NL guys I like and am just waiting for them to sign are: Pedro Alvarez, Buster Posey and Yonder Alonso.
Brendan Roberts (4:05 PM)
OK, guys. Gotta run. Enjoy the Derby tonight and the All-Star Game tomorrow. Just think, no fantasy implications. We just sit back and enjoy baseball being played by fantastic players. What could be better? B-Rob. Out.
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