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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Saves Scroungers everywhere

Joel Hanrahan - what say you?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Well, that's the first big question of the day, I'd imagine, who closes in Washington? I admit, I'm a little surprised Jon Rauch got dealt, especially for so little. But with him gone, yes, Hanrahan is my guy. Better than a K per inning, high-90s heat, he fits the prototype best. I can't see him being better than a third-tier closer, but if I can only choose one, he's the guy. Then Luis Ayala. Then Saul Rivera, who's better in longer spurts.

Lance (Chicago)

Riskier start today, Myers against the Mets offense or Buchholz against King Felix?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

Uhhh, Brett Myers against the Mets. The great unknown, and I think the Mets showed us what they can do with the long ball against an overrated right-hander.

Suzanne (Oak Park, IL)

Is Dave Bush worth having for the rest of the season in his new ½ 5th starter role? Would you take a flyer on Zito, who has been surprisingly decent in his last 5 starts (29.2 IP, 3-1, 27 K?s, 3.64 ERA)? Other options are Lannan, Bergmann, Marshall, Washburn. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

As a matchups guy, yes. And with Barry Zito, as a matchups guy, yes. If I keep this up, I'm going to find myself saying that for most of these pitchers. Except Sean Marshall, who doesn't fit into the Cubs' rotation plans other than as a fall-back. I'd probably want Bush, I see the most safety in matchups. But I can't say I'd stick with any of these guys for an extended period or for every start.

Gersh (NYC)

I have this tendency to pick up every replacement closer available on waivers when trades and injuries hit. Is that overdoing it?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

Nope. I do the same thing in my leagues. And owners hate me for it.

Dave (Fredericton, Canada)

Now that we know who closes in Washington, what about Arizona? Do you see Rauch taking over the job?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Nope, it's Brandon Lyon's job. Though, considering Lyon has been a little shaky of late, it's nice insurance. Jon Rauch's success probably puts him next in line to close, so there's your handcuff, if you feel the need and have the space to own one.

Clip(Boston)

Out of Hamilton, Kinsler, ARod, Peavy, Webb which two are keepers if the season ended today?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Two?! Ugh, that's rough. I'd want to keep all three hitters. I'd rank Alex Rodriguez and Josh Hamilton highest for 2009, doing the rankings today. But you know, I'd have Ian Kinsler pretty high in the ranks, too, and considering the position scarcity -- yes, it's scarce again -- I'd probably keep him over Kinsler.

Di

Is it time to drop Slowey?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

Why, because the Tigers and Yankees just beat him up? The rest of the Twins' schedule isn't that bad. I don't know your league format, if it's incredibly shallow mixed, sure, dropping Kevin Slowey isn't a dumb idea. There might be better pitchers available! But I still see him as being a decent arm down the stretch.

Scott, Groton CT

pick one for a big 2nd half breakout: Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Jason Kubel

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

I'll take Jones. Highest ceiling if he manages to reach it, for one.

Mike (Nashville)

You starting Maine against the Phillies today?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Oh yes, definitely. Though neither resulted in a win, each of his two starts against them this season was a good one. Plus, after last night's debacle, I'd have to think the Mets come out for vengeance. I know, I know, some might say "but they're the Mets," but I have a lot of faith in Maine's talent. I think he can pull through.

Neal, Toronto

Can the twins be fined for stupidity? Everybody saying their pitching is fine is literally foolish. Livan has been TERRIBLE, and the whole veteran presence garbage people keep saying is rubbish. He is terrible. Liriano has allowed 1ER in his last 35 AAA innings with 42 K's. That level of pitching is better than everybody they have but Baker (who is over his head) Where does common sense come in?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

Well, Neal, we're sure going to find out with that grievance! But just a couple points here:A. I agree with you on Livan. He needs to go. The Twins actually stand a better chance at winning without him!B. I don't think Scott Baker is pitching that much over his head.C. Perhaps this whole debacle is going to merely serve as motivation for Liriano to prove the Twins are doing him wrong? Hmmm. I feel better and better about him each outing he makes.

jim

5 straight multi-hit games for Robby Cano. Is he officially back from the dead? What is his value going forward? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

I really hate to say "I told you so," and it's way too early to do that, but I'm boosting up the font size for that little phrase to post in the final chat of this baseball season every day that goes by. Top-five fantasy second baseman from today forward, I can smell it.

Rob (DC)

Any bold projections for Liriano?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

That I'm not nearly as big on Francisco Liriano as almost anyone else should serve as "bold," but even then, I'm growing more optimistic as time passes. For one thing, I was down on him in, say, mid-June because I had a feeling that flashing forward to today, he'd be in this predicament. So it was easier for me to say "sell" then, but now that the better stages of his season are left, to "buy." Keep that perspective in mind. I look at Liriano and see two months' productivity. Let's say three weeks of August where he's matchups worthy. Then he's a must start the final five-plus weeks. That's good, but it's not great. It probably results in, say. 10-12 starts, 5-6 wins, mid-threes ERA, K rate a hair beneath one per frame. Again, good, not great. Trade for that value, I'd say, but that's decent value!

Justin (NY)

D. Marte for J. Lester, which side are you on?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

A hundred times Jon Lester.

Jay (NYC)

Who would you rather keep from here on out Ugla or Cano?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Dan Uggla. I'm not that big on Robby!

Evan W. (Snohomish, WA)

Jared Washburn is available in my league, do you think he has a chance of keeping up his current success?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

I think there's a decent chance the rumors he could be bound for the Yankees are true, because he has a contract the Mariners would love to unload, and he wouldn't cost the Yankees nearly the prospects they'd have to spend to get someone better! And they so desperately need an arm, pretty much any arm. So that factors into the equation, that Mr. Washburn could wind up on a team where he'd matter. Of course, there's a risk he'll end up in a place much less pitcher-friendly, but I say better matchups candidate than you think! Not an every-start guy, but there's going to be some usefulness in him. Stash him, certainly, unless it's shallow mixed.

Chris (Albany)

Wins are tough to predict, but can you venture a guess as to the top 5 starters in terms of wins over the 2nd half? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Shameless plug time, but I do have an interesting pitch to the fantasy community with regard to wins and our game coming in my column today. Check it out, I'd love to hear your thoughts! But one of the points I made was how wins is a total crapshoot. This is really more of a "for-fun" question, so I'll toss out five names who make me feel warm and cozy for wins, and I know these are easy choices: Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Brandon Webb, Ervin Santana. I'll toss John Lackey in, too. I want the best talents on teams I think can win consistently enough. Hey, you said "top five"!

Slim (Memphis, USA)

May I call you Tristan? I am able to deal Shields for either Longoria or Michael Young. Who would you rather have through the end of this year, and this year alone?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

You may. If it's this year alone, I would actually prefer Michael Young. But I'm all over Evan Longoria as a keeper. Totally different story in those formats.

bob(ny)

STREET GETS TRADED______CLOSES! TY

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

SANTIAGO CASILLA ... oops, sorry, force of habit when I see all caps.

Cole (Long Beach, CA)

Help! With the Durham trade, I need an everyday 2B for a very deep mixed league. Looking at Felipe Lopez, Nick Punto, and Ian Stewart. Offense is solid but most vulnerable in HR and AVG. I am leaning towards Stewart....

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

And so am I. He's worlds more talented than the other two, and he's going to play regularly because Todd Helton's back is still troubling him. And I always say go for the talent first and foremost when digging deep.

Wisebeard

With Posada seemingly done, can Clement fill my catcher spot all by himself? Navarro and A.J also available.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

I'd take A.J. Pierzynski from that bunch.

Matt (Lewes, DE)

What do you think of Blalock? I am weak at 3B with Alex Gordon and Kouz.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

I actually like Hank Blalock a lot more today than I did, say, two years ago, but then I also think he's far more brittle today than he was, say, two years ago. Good player when healthy, but not healthy all that often. So that means for now I'd prefer him most of that bunch, because he's playing, but I couldn't let a Gordon go knowing that Blalock could head back to the DL at any point.

Tim (MD)

Start Jay Bruce over Dye or Burrell today?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

Jermaine Dye is too productive to sit, I think, and there's no way I'm sitting Pat Burrell knowing his extraordinary career history against the Mets.

Justin ( Boston )

Do you think Street will close for another team?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

Yes. He'd probably be the best reliever in the bullpen for at least half the teams in baseball, and I'm only offering that conservative a number because it's tough to count the exact number out of 30 in a short chat time. I can't see any team that wants him not thinking he'd be the best bet to close for them.

Jordan (NJ)

In a vaccuum, Pat Burrell or John Lackey? I have power to give, and I just added Konerko (yea I know) from free agency, and have Damon coming off the DL.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

I don't even think I need a vacuum to say I prefer John Lackey.

Todd (Fargo)

"all over Longoria as a keeper", would you keep him over Granderson or Markakis?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Maybe over Curtis Granderson, though if I did that, I'd probably hope to peddle Granderson to another team for some useful keeper parts. I see Nick Markakis and Evan Longoria as two pretty strong franchise-caliber bets. Great batting averages, nice power, too. Curtis Granderson, he's a great player for sure, but a lot of his value is tied into stolen bases and he's not elite in batting average. I have a hard time calling those types quite on the same plane as the two big hitters.

Joe (Philly)

Did you catch any of Marcum's work last night? He got crushed... Should the Jays have brought him along in the minors a bit more? He seemed very overmatched against an average offense.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

I did not, Joe, unfortunately. I was actually there for the Mets' ninth-inning meltdown last night, so couldn't see Shaun Marcum's first start back. I think he'll be fine down the road, but it's not surprising to see him rocked in his first start back. The Jays were so wishy-washy about how they were bringing him along the past week, and he threw 77 pitches, which was actually more than I was expecting. I'd give him another start, possibly two, to evaluate him. Might take that long before he's able to help you.

Matt (boston)

What do you think about Carpenter for the rest of the year? What about for 2009? Kind of need him to be that Cy Young talent...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

I feel like Chris Carpenter needs to be projected for an almost identical 2008 impact to Pedro Martinez's 2007. The hype gets too great for these guys, and the task at hand for them is really too much to expect what people throw out there for numbers. I really think if you get five starts that are borderline useful, you should be happy, and anything more is gravy, totally. After all, he's prepping for two things, in my mind: Getting geared up for the playoffs, if needed, but more importantly, for 2009. And we'll get a read on that 2009 potential when he does return this year. I bet Carpenter is going to be a lot better in 2009 than Pedro was in 2008, for the record. A little younger, for one. Maybe not Cy Young-caliber, but I'd say, hmmm, top-40 potential?

Frank (Brooklyn)

Can Kyle Lohse really win 20 games?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

I'd be stunned if he did. And it's not that I think he's a bad pitcher, it's more that I keep seeing him as a good matchups type, start him at home but generally not on the road. He's actually doing better than that so far, but I keep thinking that's what he'll revert to, and that'll be enough to keep him short of 20. Think maybe 17-18.

Kevin (toronto)

I got burned by sitting Campillo earlier this week. Start Kuroda or Lilly tonight?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Ted Lilly. And it's no knock on Hiroki Kuroda, who has pitched well since his return from the DL, I'm just not messing with him in a Coors start, that's all. Lilly faces the Diamondbacks, who really haven't shown much offensively of late.

Matt (kzoo)

what about Ziegler in Oakland as the closer?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Great year, great story, but too Chad Bradford-ish for my tastes. And a guy like that -- think Cla Meredith in his great year a couple seasons back, too -- is a lot more useful when you can save him for the precise matchups you like, not locking him into merely the ninth inning.

John (KC)

Carlos Gomez is awful!! In a keeper league, is it worth it to hold on to him? What is his ceiling? Also keeper for next year---CHeadley, CRasmus, and CDavis. Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

He simply cannot hit. His ceiling -- and I don't give him a great chance at reaching it -- is "lite Jose Reyes." Seriously, he's speedy, doesn't walk a lot, will always be pretty inconsistent, probably. I'm thinking at his best he bats around .280, swipes 50 bags, belts maybe 10 homers. But it could take awhile, and there's a noticeable chance he'll never get much better than this. I admit, I'm not a Gomez fan. Never was. I wouldn't keep him, unless it's a very deep keeper league. Of that bunch, to me, it's probably Headley. Safest combination of opportunity, batting average and power of those three.

Earl, Fayetteville

Which A.J. Burnett shows up tonight?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Wish I knew, Earl, wish I knew. He's that unpredictable. I'm thinking with a potential trade to a contender on the line, the great Burnett shows up. But it's a bit of a hunch, I admit, and the Orioles have pummeled him all year. I simply see Burnett-Jeremy Guthrie as a pretty underrated pitchers' duel. Tough to play for a win there on either side.

Wisebeard

Garrett Mock got recalled to take Rauch's spot. Will he start and can he be useful? He seemed to do well in when he got a shot earlier this year.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Nope. He'll relieve, and not in the late innings at that.

Lee

Hey Tristan, I've been trying to get this answered so I hope you can help me...in a kepper league, would you trade Miguel Cabrera, Tejada, Dempster, and Scherzer for Hanley Ramirez and Fielder?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

I probably would, yes. Let's just say for a second here that Cabrera and Prince Fielder, that's pretty much a wash. So then it's Hanley for Miguel Tejada, Ryan Dempster and Max Scherzer. Hanley is by far the best player in that portion of the deal. And in keeper leagues, consolidating your keepers is usually a very smart move.

Joe (MA)

greinke's ERA since may 1 is hovering around 5 - what's the deal, and is it gonna get better? and also, greinke vs det and clay at seattle - would you start either one?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

It's really a shame Zack Greinke has cooled off. He's a much better pitcher than this. Perhaps it's a sign he'll never be quite ace-caliber; a No. 2/3 starter type career is probably in the cards for him. I think in that division he still has some decent value, but I'd slot him somewhere in the Nos. 25-40 range among starters looking forward. Good, not great. And as for the matchups, I'd try to avoid both if I could, especially if I had a starts/innings cap. Forced to choose, I'd actually take Clay Buchholz.

Bob

Who wins: Volquez and Polanco for Lackey and Cano?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

The team that gets John Lackey and Robinson Cano, and I think noticeably so.

Evan (New York)

Does Rauch ruin Pena's eighth inning stauts and all the "holds" that go with it?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

I'm going to say yes, but then I keep looking at that bullpen and seeing Tony Pena and Chad Qualls being forced to share the holds in the first place. Tossing Jon Rauch in there as the man higher on the depth chart than them is only going to eat into each of their holds. There should be a decent number to go around, but yes, adjust your projections down for the final two months.

buzzer beater

e. santana for cano?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

I'd rather have Ervin Santana. I'm a believer.

Yasmine (PR)

Please rank for the rest of the year: Greinke, Maine, Harang.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

I see that going John Maine, Aaron Harang, Zack Greinke. But I'm taking a leap of faith that Harang's couple-week rest period will get him back on track. There's the most downside in him. Most upside too, of course.

Chuck D (Wilkes-Barre Pa)

Ok Tristan, we're running out of time. What do you think Ichiro's value is if he's not getting steals? Please help.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

He historically tends to slow down a bit in the category the deeper into the season it gets, so I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement from Ichiro looking forward. Some, but not back to elite levels. I think you aim to own him because he's a big help to a fantasy team's batting average -- I recently acquired him in one league for that specific purpose -- and he'll get you runs. And sure, he will help in steals.

Rob (State College)

Tristan - I would appreciate your input on this question. In a public league, the 10th place team is trading Jimmy Rollins to the 3rd place team and getting Troy Percival and Kerry Wood in return (whatever saves he gets isn't going to make much difference). I don't veto trades as a rule, but this one seems so strange as to border on collusional. Obviously, I can't know what happened but still... So, what do you think?? Thanks!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

In terms of on-paper value I don't think that's an awful trade, and you can't be too creative with how you assume an owner is treating his (or her) team. Maybe that owner sees saves differently than you do, that there's ground to be made up after all? Bottom line is Rollins is severely underperforming, and those are two decent closers. I don't think you can shoot it down. But then I continue to stress I'm very liberal on which trades I allow to go through.

Mike (CO)

I think Stephania's addition to your team has made you guys soft. None of you seem willing to go out on a limb any more and answer questions about players returning from injuries and future xpectations. Prove me wrong and talk about Juan Pierre's return, which may be as early as this weekend.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Ouch, OK, then I'll go out on a limb. I am not a Juan Pierre fan. He's a .270s-hitting, one-dimensional player, and I say that because you can't trust his runs contribution anymore with that Dodgers outfield so deep. He's coming back from a sprained MCL, so I do think that hobbles him initially. I'd take it into consideration. And if he's not 100 percent, he's going to disappoint. Think a steals guy, and a steals guy alone, but not up to the par of a 60-steal full-year pace. I think he drops off from the rate he was at before he was hurt. Hope that's "on a limb" enough for you, if not, well, "I'm not a Juan Pierre fan" should be enough of a statement for that!

Todd (Philly)

A point to make on trades - maybe the owner is stockpiling to make another trade...you must keep that in mind as a commissioner.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Important thought, so I'm posting it.

Warren (Pitt.)

I'm surprised nobody has brought up Francouer. Is he still ownable? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Actually, a few have, and I'll get to the Jeff Francoeur question before we wrap up. He's hitting .211 with one homer in 10 games since his demotion to Double-A, so clearly, that strategy didn't amount to much. Ownable? Sure, but only in deeper leagues. I'm really starting to wonder whether Francoeur needs an extended period to work on his problems. Guess what I'm saying is, if he's worth having, it's on your bench, only based on the chance he could do something. That's not valuable to a lot of people, so I wouldn't be too afraid to let him go.

Ian (LA)

Well I am surprised that nobody has brought up Jeff Baker?! Flying under the radar, will he get consistent playing tying with Helton out??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Different story, though. Plus, it's not like the Ian Stewart situation, he's playing third and Garrett Atkins first. Baker, meanwhile, has what, Clint Barmes and Omar Quintanilla challenging for his at-bats? I think Baker is pretty underrated, myself, but the knock on him is he's not an everyday player. It's not a bad knock, not at all. I'd just say for every seven games, let's say he starts four or so, and pinch hits another game or two. Not bad.

TED(MI)

START Guthrie tonight? TY

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Yes. Again, expecting an underrated pitchers' duel.

Steve (LA)

Suprised nobody brought up Chris Young and his minor league starts..any thoughts on him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Actually, a few people mentioned him, too, so let's get to that while there's still time ... I'd say Young is up here within the week (or within 10 days, really). And considering that his injury was in no way arm-related, I would not be too troubled. Wins will be a problem on that team, but I think Young steps right back in as the reliable fantasy arm he was before he was hurt.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Well, folks, that's all for today, unfortunately. Thanks for all of your questions, and sorry if I wasn't able to tackle yours. Don't forget, we'll be back to chat with you again at 3 p.m. ET today. Take care!