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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Boy, could the closer carousel be spinning any faster than it is right now? Plenty of questions coming today, I'm sure, so let's kick things off...

Ryan (New Rock)

Who is closing in Oakland and for the Mets???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

I still don't buy for one second that Huston Street is losing his job. Ummm, wouldn't that hurt his trade value heading into the winter? Just my thinking. Still, I'd be adding Brad Ziegler, if only because he can help you in ERA and WHIP and maybe will get a vulture win or save or two. It's still Street as the favorite to me, though. As for the Mets, ugh, I'd avoid that bullpen. Seriously. I was there for that mid-July meltdown last time Billy Wagner was unavailable. It was pathetic. And boy did "new closer" Aaron Heilman look bad last night! I'd rank them in terms of value: Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Eddie Kunz, Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis. But the final guy on my list got the save last night, so that speaks volumes about how messy I see that bullpen being!

Mike (boston)

I missed on Guardado because I wanted to make sure Wilson was out and today's news says he is but guardado is gone...do you think capps will be okay in his return?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Hard to say because Matt Capps looked like he was adversely affected by his injury leading into his DL stint, so we'd need to see certain signs of health before calling him trustworthy. Think, like, a rehab assignment with glowing reports. Or a week or two of solid performance before you activate him. I think it's a good pickup, but it's as much a gamble as a lot of these bullpens are right now. Another good sleeper in Texas, by the way: Frank Francisco.

Tony (NY)

What do you see from Morrow and Scherzer this season?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Honestly? Nada and nada. Or, at least, nothing I'd get excited about. I don't get the Mariners' plan. Don't get it at all. It made sense for the Yankees to move Joba Chamberlain when they did, but look at that, didn't that take like a month? So Morrow might help in early-to-mid September. And by then, why push him all that much? As for Max Scherzer, well, the Diamondbacks already have enough starters and their bullpen is pretty deep as it is. He's insurance, that's it, and I see 2009 as his true chance for a breakout. There's a chance at value with either, but I wouldn't get too excited, that's all.

norm (long beach, ca)

Recent success of Doumit ? am I crazy or is he a keeper possibility

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

I think he is absolutely a keeper possibility! Could be a top-five ranked catcher headed into 2009. Though I have yet to actually sit down and do that rank in detail.

Pete C (Newark DE)

Should Joba owner be worried, should we start looking for another SP?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Yes, absolutely. The Yankees won't be pushing that kid barring them getting so utterly, completely desperate. And if they were, I think we'd be seeing them pressing the panic button by, say, 3 p.m. ET today. I'm already thinking Jake Peavy-like absence with Joba Chamberlain, because that'd be the smart play. And I did the math, Peavy sat out 28 days, which would be five rotation turns. Sure could happen with Joba, and if the Yanks do fall out of the race in the meantime, I think there's a real chance they could shut him down. Be cautious, this is not a kid a franchise will mess with!

Adam (Augusta, GA)

Liriano a sell high candidate or is he the real deal hollyfield

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

I think he's a sell-high candidate if only because the buzz surrounding him is positively unreal. That's no knock whatsoever on his value. But if he's a lock top-25 starting pitcher from this point forward in most people's minds, and I'd actually put him only around 50/50 to be that, then he's absolutely worth selling for an elite talent. And for the record, saying he's 50/50 to be a top-25 guy is actually a very generous ranking. I think he's legit, but I'm not expecting a rookie-year repeat, at least, not until 2009. That's the time I'll go all in.

TOM (WA)

David Ortiz, be concerned? Would you trade him for Carlos Pena?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Nope, nope.

Francisco Liriano

Am I good enough for a 12th round keeper next year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Without a doubt. Zero doubt. Can't be more definitive than that.

Chris (Physics Class)

Hey TC, while my prof blabs up there 2 quick ones: Bengie Molina or Chris Ianneta, and Hermida, Fred Lewis, or Milton Bradley (bc of injury) Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Hey Chris, you know, my physics class was actually comparably boring, so I know how you feel. (Bad teacher, not a lack of interest, you know, the whole math/stats thing and all.) I'd take Iannetta. I know that's bold, but I like the kid, I like the ballpark, I like the offense, and that's especially true if this is a keeper league. And while Bradley's my boy and I'd love to pick him there, it's risky. What I'd probably prefer to do in your shoes is have Bradley as the leading man, but keep Jeremy Hermida around as spot-in insurance. That'd be a heck of a duo.

frank (bronx,ny)

Speaking of closers. Who's the man in Pittsburgh till Capps gets back? Grabow or Yates?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Timeshare but I simply trust John Grabow more. And I still think it's the end of August before we see Matt Capps in that role again, if that soon.

brad (new york)

is gio gonzalez worth a pick up?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

Yes, and especially so in keeper-minded leagues, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. He seemed to need time to adjust to his new surroundings in the Oakland organization, so I could see him being the kind of guy who needs time to get fully acclimated to the big-league level. In other words, better 2009 sleeper than 2008, but because he projects a future mid-rotation guy, I'd say he's worth stashing. On a bench, is all.

wilmes (Cheshire, CT)

Rank the following Bears, Beets, Battlestar Galactica or Bedard? Honestly, how disappointing has Bedard been this year

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

I've been told Battlestar Galactica is actually pretty good, and never seen it.

jordan (Toronto)

What's your take on the Detroit closer situation?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

Another mess but featuring guys with higher upside than the ones in the Mets' bullpen. The only advantage the Mets have, really, is they'll probably win more games from this point forward. Joel Zumaya is supposedly now the guy, but then Fernando Rodney was the guy a day ago, so that shows how messy this is. One thing I know for sure: I don't want Kyle Farnsworth, he has been awful since the trade. Might have shattered his confidence. For me it's Zumaya, if only because of the high ceiling. His health is the thing that worries me with him, or else I'd be higher on him.

larry (lawrence, ks)

Keeper question ? do you ever keep a closer ie Pappelbon???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

Depends on the league, as I have a long-term, 12-team, 12-player keeper league and I always keep at least one closer. And if you're going to keep a closer, yes, Jonathan Papelbon is about the best choice you can have.

Adam (Davis, CA)

Pushing your luck with Francis tonight against washington?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Yes, but not if I have an innings or starts cap. I see borderline quality-start standard stat line. Hmmm, maybe slightly beneath that. But good shot at a "W."

Jay (Chicago)

Speaking of Bedard...Bedard or Harang for this year, and this year only.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Aaron Harang. I don't want to mess with Erik Bedard's completely questionable health, and his awful, awful team, not the rest of this year!

Julio (Sacramento, CA)

Someone said Matt Kemp is the re-incarnation of Dave Winfield ? are you buying that?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Interesting comparable, though I think of Kemp as potentially a little better pure batsman than Winfield, with a little less power, and a tad better raw speed. A career impact in the ballpark of Winfield can't be ruled out, though. Many years, high impact.

Paul, NY

I've gotta drop Morrow, so I freed up some roster space. I don't need saves, so would you pick up Slowey or Myers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

I'd pick up Kevin Slowey but then I think he's just a bit more trustworthy, more consistent, because he has better command. That Philly ballpark worries me with Brett Myers, especially when I consider that he's dreadful away from it. Scary splits there.

Provost (Orlando, FL)

What are your thoughts on Colon down the home stretch after his abysmal rehab outing

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

I was supposed to be thinking about Bartolo Colon?

Todd (MPLS)

I'm targeting a pitcher from a competitor to help me finish strong in an AL ROTO league. Need to make up K's, ERA and WHIP. Please rate Verlander, Greinke, Garza. Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

I'd probably still want Justin Verlander, because his ceiling is easily the highest of these three. And I did take a closer look at Zack Greinke for a recent column, and was not overwhelmed by his remaining schedule. With his recent inconsistency I'm dropping him to last. Matt Garza in the middle, even if he probably has the most win potential of the bunch.

Phil (Long Island)

Would Brad Penny be a rewarding pick-up for the stretch run, or a match-ups only streamer?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

I'm not a Penny fan, so I'm going to lean towards matchups-only streamer.

Josh (San Jose, CA)

If you were a Billy Wagner owner, would you pick up Ziegler or Rafael Perez? Perez is looking nasty, but Wedge seems intent on keeping him in the 7/8th.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

I don't agree with you. I think Rafael Perez has a much clearer path to the occasional save, if that's your object here. He's the most talented arm in that bullpen, bottom line, having watched him pitch.

Tristan (Hartford)

pop quiz hot shot -- lowrie starting shortstop in 2009 for bosox

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Should be and probably will be, though I can see that being a spring training battle where the Red Sox insist upon him earning the job, not merely handing it to him. I'd say easily better than 50/50 he's in the Opening Day 2009 lineup.

Mike (Seattle)

Better keeper: Delmon Young or Hunter Pence?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

If there are no long-term keeper restrictions -- i.e. you can keep these guys forever with no penalty -- then it's Young. But since most keeper leagues aren't run that way, and 2009 really does matter here, I want Pence. He's showing signs of being able to reach his ceiling quicker of the two.

Joe (Brooklyn)

Is Evan Longoria going to be a top-5 3rd baseman next season? A-rod, D Wright, Evan??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

Yes, and I think, if I remember how I was planning to rank them for 2009, I did indeed have Evan Longoria ranked third. But don't quote me on it, I haven't done a formal rank of that yet (I plan to).

Steve (MA via East Hartford)

Will Chris Davis be hitting 4th for the Rangers next year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

Even if he doesn't I still think he's going to be a great player to own. In the worst-case scenario maybe he's Adam Dunn in one of his average (or slightly beneath) season. But Dunn's routinely a top-100 talent at his best, so that's still a great keeper.

Alex (Jersey)

Who will be closing next year Broxton, Torres, Zumaya, Rodney, Corpas, Isringhausen?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

My opinion is yes, no, yes, no, yes, no. It's the last one I'm iffy on, if only because Tony La Russa is so painfully loyal to Izzy.

Tom (Danbury)

I picked up David Murphy for Ellsbury, good move?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

If you can afford the hit in stolen bases, sure. Those Rangers are not cooling off offensively.

Desperate for some closure

I got beat to the punch on Eddie.Could you rank these guys for me?Zumaya, Zeigler, Heilman, Kunz.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

See, the tough part with these is I have to assume when you say "closers" that saves is your object. That in mind, I'm going Joel Zumaya, Brad Ziegler, Eddie Kunz, Aaron Heilman. I'd probably put Ziegler first in terms of overall Roto package, though.

John, Maine

Better Keeper: Ryan Zimmerman or Chris Davis

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Tough one, because I like both. It might yet be Davis, because Zimmerman has hit some tough spots in his career development path, and I don't see that team really providing him much more lineup support in 2009 than he received this year (or in the past). The Rangers, meanwhile, will still have a stacked offense and that hitter-friendly ballpark. It's a virtual coin flip to me, honestly. I might actually go Zimmerman here if only because I think he's safer in batting average and I think first base is incredibly deep.

Chuck (Wyoming)

Mike Hampton, pick up for medicur pitcher or let be on FA?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Well, I don't want him. So he beat the Giants, so what? Guys like that you can pick up to spot start right off the free-agent list anytime. And so his role shall remain.

John (NY)

Better keeper for 2009-2013: Scherzer or D-Price?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

David Price if only because I know his career path is going to be as a starting pitcher. That makes a huge difference.

MIKE (killeen texas)

Y is everyone jumpin the favre wagon. He will not, i repeat, will not take any team to the playoffs this year. With that said y didnt the chiefs go after him. And if really wants to play y not the AFL? He could play till he is 60.What u say bout dat?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

I'm not jumping the Brett Favre bandwagon. Frankly, I'm sick of this story.

Hank (Michigan)

Thoughts on Anibal Sanchez coming back?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Nice sleeper to stash, and could be quite a find in 2009. Very intriguing that the Marlins are still in the playoff hunt and now all of their most interesting young arms are getting healthy. They could actually help you more than you think!

Jeff (Portland, ME)

Speaking of David Price, when does he get the call?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

I've said it all year, I expect practically nada from him in 2008. And if he does, it's in September and as a reliever where he's just "taking it all in."

Matt (work)

It seems everyone is always scrambling for saves at the end of the year. Would it be a good strategy to draft some solid closers in hopes of racking up the saves early on, only to trade away your guys once you've reach a favorable position?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Well, Matt, as someone who has done this in one league, guaranteed himself first place in the category, a couple problems to point out. One, when you then go to shop your guys, your counterparts often lowball you on offers because they know the guys aren't helping you at all. They'll try to get your guys cheaper knowing you're stuck. Two, what happens late in the year is that you wind up pretty good in ERA and WHIP, too, and if you part with the elite closers you've hoarded, you put those ratio categories at greater risk of losing points. Not that it's a bad idea, but it does increase the amount of work you have to do making sure you don't jeopardize your standings in the ratio categories.

Dave(Frisco)

Ok, so let's take the closer rankings to a different angle. Would you drop Street or Wagner to pick up a Zumaya or Ziegler? Who is the better overall value from this point on? Is Zumaya a better value than already ordained bad team closers like Hanrahn, Kobayashi, or Gonzales? I'm trying to put all of this together. Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Not the first time I've heard "Gonzales" and really been thrown for a curve. I have to assume that's Mike Gonzalez you're talking about? If so, I'd probably prefer Huston Street most -- I'm still a believer -- but then I'd rather have clear closers even if they're on bad teams, so I'd go Mike Gonzalez and then Joel Hanrahan. But that's me. I like the official closers. And I don't see "hot dog dude" (Masa Kobayashi) as any sure thing. Or, at least, no more sure than Joel Zumaya or Brad Ziegler. Maybe I'd drop Billy Wagner for a Ziegler to handcuff myself, but dropping Wagner for Gonzalez or Hanrahan is probably at least as smart.

Greg (Ohio)

Who do you see as the better start today: Garko facing Kazmir, or Headley facing Pedro?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Probably Chase Headley.

jim

What do you make of Chad Billingsley? Can he be a top 10-15 SP next season? Or is that asking too much?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

I think he's got that kind of talent. His ceiling is as a bona fide No. 1/2 starting pitcher, and he's looking like he's getting closer to that every day.

Melinda (NY)

Thoughts on Ian Kennedy now that's he's back up?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

He pitched pretty well in his rehab and he had a good spring training, oh, and a decent couple starts last year. So there's a little sleeper potential in him. Of course, the Yanks' schedule in the short term is pretty tough. I'd stash him on a bench, but there's no way I'm pitching him in Anaheim (if he does get that start, and last I heard it's not 100 percent he will -- I think he will, though). On a team like that even a guy who can offer, say, six innings and four runs allowed is going to get some wins. So there's matchup potential.

Pilar (Palm Springs)

Does Morrow having any value now that he is be converted to a starter?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I think only for 2009. But that kid really could develop into quite a starter. What's good is at least we know for sure if he's an underwhelming starter that at least he can fall back on being a great closer.

Kurt (NYC)

Think Gamel gets called up before September? I cant keep him if he does not, and I can get Peavy for him in my NL only keeper league.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Before September? Frankly, no way. I see defense being a question, and might be again even in the spring, so he might actually begin 2009 in the minors and be perhaps a Ryan Braun-2007 candidate (check how late he came up and then what he did). So I guess based on what you're asking, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat. Come to think of it, I'd probably take it regardless.

Tim

Carry forward the clar closer for a spot closer mentality. Do you recommend droping Wagner for Putz?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Yes, because J.J. Putz is not a "spot closer" anymore.

Neal (Mesa, Arizona)

Last night's Scott Baker meltdown just a hiccup?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

I think so. No one can dominate every start, well, unless you're pretty much an annual Cy Young candidate, which I don't think Baker will ever be. (That's no knock, it's just being realistic, he'll be very good but not an annual ace-of-any-staff.)

Jake (WA)

Size or Bay?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Grady Sizemore. Much more complete player.

Ryan (New Rock)

Thoughts on Tatis?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Good ride-him-while-he's-hot type. Hey, he's playing regularly, I'll give him that. Long term, I don't trust him all that much. I can see the batting average going into the tank at any moment.

Joe Schmo

Back to J to the OB(a) for a minute. Do you think this hurts his long term value (2009-2011)? Should I look to deal him for a potentially less risky SP like Lackey or Beckett?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

I do not, but then it is impossible to know what the details of any possible damage might be. The Yankees will surely take every single precaution with this kid, and what I saw and have since heard suggests this might be a minor thing. Still, it'd shock me if it doesn't cost him a 2-3 week DL stint at the very minimum. Long term I'm not panicking yet, though if I could get a John Lackey for Joba Chamberlain even without this, I would sure do it.

Help (Helpcity)

Kazmir, Verlander, Blackburn: start them all? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

Yes, though Scott Kazmir is the one lock to start of these three. Then I'd say Justin Verlander if only because of his ceiling. Nick Blackburn, I love the matchup, but that could be a pitchers' duel, or at least close to one.

Jim (Tampa, FL)

Do you like Blackburn better then Maddux this week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

With Greg Maddux going at Coors? Uh, yeah.

Joe (Baltimore)

I'm thriving thanks to midseason revelations Aviles and Alexei Ramirez. Is it time to sell high on them or will they have value next year in a dynasty league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

I don't know that you'd be able to sell either at a price that would make it worth parting with them. Why can't they keep this up this year, and help you win right now? I wouldn't damage those chances. As for who is more likely to keep this up into 2009, I do think quite a bit higher long term of Ramirez than I do Mike Aviles.

Brick (Brooklyn)

Tristan- regarding your Bartolo Colon comment- some of us play in really deep leagues. A guy who might be able to get some wins with an ERA around 4.50 or so is pretty relevant. Are you saying Colon is not going to have any value the rest of the way?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

I understand, Brick, and didn't mean to make it come across as blowing off the inquiry. I just don't buy the idea of Colon helping. Maybe in deep, deep AL-only leagues he belongs stashed on a bench just in case. But the ceiling is very low, and I don't think the Red Sox at all savor the idea of having to call upon him in September. I'd think Justin Masterson gets a look in the rotation if needed well before Colon does. Or, at least, he should!

Pete (CO)

thoughts on Ubaldo Jimenez? Does he become an 1/2 starter next year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

Maybe not that high but I think a lot of people are underrating what Jimenez has been doing lately. He's pitching rather well, and I do think he'll be at the very least a good matchups type next year, i.e. you'd only want to sit him when he's at home facing an elite lineup.

Fernando (Pembroke Pines)

Hey Tristan, which two would you drop from the following when the two DLers come off; DL Wainwright, DL Maine, Nolasco, Verlander, Carpenter, F. Hernandez. Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

Oh boy. Tough calls there, because I don't know Adam Wainwright's story. If he has any shot to come back as a closer, he'll be too valuable to let go. Chris Carpenter might have to go first, and then Ricky Nolasco second. I can't see parting ways with John Maine, or the other two active starters. Might be Adam Wainwright who goes if the reports are unfavorable, though.

BRANDON MOSS (PITTSBURGH)

Am I worth any love at all now that I have an everyday job? Rank me relative to Werth, Tatis, Matt Joyce.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I'd probably go Jayson Werth, Fernando Tatis, Brandon Moss, Matt Joyce, looking at those four. But I see every single one of them as ride-the-streak, play-the-matchups types.

What Up Sloan

Where do you see Kendrick?s numbers going next year ? possible All-Star or DL candidate

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

I'm a very big Howie Kendrick fan but even I admit he has such a hard time dodging the DL. Might as well flip a coin. I'd probably say possible All-Star, but he'd have to save a good chunk of the, say, 125 games I'd think he'll play in 2009 for before the team selections come out. I think you're going to be happy with what you get either way, if that's what you're asking.

Nick (Philly)

Is Vlad a buy-low for the last 2 months? He's been an mvp in Aug/Sept the last few years, but he's not hitting as he used to.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

If his owner is down on him, sure, but I think Vladimir Guerrero's name does a pretty good job of making certain he's treated as a very valuable player. That pokes holes in the "buy-low" theory. In terms of value, yes, I'd say Vlad is a go-get-him type. Last I checked he has been hitting pretty good since the end of May. Almost in line with some of his more recent seasons.

Jack (in the box)

You don't believe in tatis? Just because he thinks its 1999 doesnt mean he can't keep playing this way.... tatis or votto til year end (non-keeper league)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I'm not saying he can't, I'm just saying that the risk of him cooling off is greater than it'd be with a better overall talent with a stronger track record. Like Joey Votto. Sorry, his ceiling is simply higher. Not that I don't see Fernando Tatis individual matchups that might trump Votto's, but if you must pick but one to ride the final seven-plus weeks, well, for me, it's going to be Votto.

Danny (Chula Vista, CA)

Kouz or Ian Stewart for the rest of this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I'd actually take Stewart, because I don't think the reports on Todd Helton are all that good. And besides, that's a much better surrounding offense.

joey (hamptons)

thoughts on Phil Hughes.. is he worth a keeper in a deep league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Yes. Which will be addressed in an upcoming column.

Lee (NY)

In a keeper league, is it worth holding onto Morrow?... I could pick up gio gonzales...cut bait on Francuoer for Justin Upton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

If I ranked those four players keeper-wise, I would likely go Justin Upton, Gio Gonzalez, Brandon Morrow, Jeff Francoeur. So take that for what it's worth.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Well, that's all for today, sad to say. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I wasn't able to get to yours. Take care everyone! We'll be back this afternoon to chat with you again.