That's Debatable: Who will win the AL Central?
'With the Twins taking three of four from the White Sox over the weekend, and Chicago's ballooning ERA, who will win the AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota, or possibly Detroit?''
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THE CASE FOR THE WHITE SOX
They have a bunch of veterans still around from the 2005 World Series season, so they know what it takes to fight through the tough times. The bullpen is strong (in theory) with Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink in the seventh and eighth innings and Bobby Jenks in the ninth. Jose Contreras is about to come off the disabled list and rejoin the rotation, and Linebrink has begun a throwing program in his recovery from a shoulder problem. The Ken Griffey Jr. acquisition adds another power bat to an offense that ranks second in the majors in slugging percentage. Chicago's biggest edge might lie in the schedule: The White Sox have 30 games left at U.S. Cellular Field, where they're an impressive 35-16.THE CASE FOR THE TWINS
After hearing for more than a month that they're destined to fade, the Twins are starting to believe they're for real. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are marvelous young players, and Joe Nathan belongs in the discussion with Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon as one of the three most dominant closers in the game. Despite hitting only 79 homers -- a little more than half Chicago's total of 154 -- the Twins have scored 553 runs, exactly the same as the White Sox. The decision to jettison Livan Hernandez for Francisco Liriano upgrades the rotation, and the Twins will add a right-handed bat shortly when Michael Cuddyer returns from a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester. Minnesota also hasn't ruled out a return by second baseman Alexi Casilla, who's out with a torn ligament in his thumb.THE VERDICT
Yes, Minnesota's rotation is young and inexperienced, and the Twins' inability to replace injured setup man Pat Neshek could come back to haunt them. The schedule also works in Chicago's favor. But there's something to be said for karma, fresh legs and good arms, and the Twins have the edge in each of those commodities. This is one of those 51 vs. 49 percent calls, but we'll go with the underdog and take Minnesota.
Every week, we'll give you the topic and then we'll have one of our writers stopping by to debate the issue with you. To suggest a topic for "That's Debatable," go here. Or check out the full archive.
Crasnick Archive: Chats | Columns
Jerry Crasnick (12:59 PM)
Hey guys, Everybody knows about the Midwest bias here at ESPN. Today it's all about the American League Central. Let's get started ...
Joe Ham Lake, MN
I think another point against the Twins we failed to mention that the twins have been playing terrible ball on the road. Last night in Seattle was a perfect example. The twins bullpen has an ERA of 6.02 on the road, but a brilliant ERA 1.92 (the best in baseball) at home. How will this play out for the twins in the long run?
Jerry Crasnick (1:01 PM)
Joe, It's not a great sign for the Twins -- particularly with that epic road stretch coming up. But other than the Angels and Phillies, there aren't any contenders with great road records. Minnesota actually has a better road record than Boston, believe it or not.
Tim (Lawrence, KS)
Who would win a Prince Fielder-Manny Parra smackdown?
Jerry Crasnick (1:02 PM)
Tim, I'd have to put my money on the big, power-hitting vegetarian at first base.
Matt (Syracuse)
This one is a no brainer. Minnesota has inexperienced pitchers, while the White Sox hold one of the most powerful offenses in the league. With the addition of Griffey in the lineup, the White Sox will gel and pull away from the Twins in the AL Central, eventually winning the American League.
Jerry Crasnick (1:04 PM)
Matt, The White Sox might have one of the most powerful offenses in the league, but they've scored 553 runs -- exactly the same as the Twins (who've played one more game). Chicago does it with power and Minnesota has done it with speed and timely hitting. Everybody keeps saying the Twins are a mirage with that .317 average with runners in scoring position. But we've been saying it for weeks now, and they're still hanging around.
Pablo, Los angeles, CA.
I am a White Sox fan(I don't know Why) but I agree with you The Sox don't play with the heart the Twins do. And unless they get another pitcher and speedy player, the Twins will teach The Chisox another lesson, and break our hearts AGAIN.
Jerry Crasnick (1:07 PM)
Pablo, I thought I'd get savaged by White Sox fans for picking the Twins, but I've had a few people post the same sentiment as you -- that some intangible ingredient is missing from this year's White Sox. And if things don't get better, you have to think the pressure will be ratcheted up in Chicago. The Twins, on the other hand, have every reason to be loose. Nobody expects them to be here.
Chuck (San Diego, CA)
Since this is Liriano's first season back from Tommy John surgery and having already pitched 133.2 innings between the minors and majors this year, at what point do the twins shut him down?
Jerry Crasnick (1:08 PM)
Chuck, I think they'll shut him down in October. If they shut him down now, his agent will probably file a grievance with the Players Association.
Andy (Santa Monica, CA)
Do either of these teams stand a chance when it comes to the post season? They are being ignored because of the empires in the AL East(Yanks and Sox) and the league best Angels. I still think one of these teams could sneak through and even make a world series this year. I might be alone in that opinion though.
Jerry Crasnick (1:09 PM)
Andy, Unfortunately, I think you're in a pretty small fraternity. They're both flawed teams, and they'd be underdogs the minute they set foot in the postseason.
Tim (Lawrence, KS)
What effect will Junior have on this race, if any?
Jerry Crasnick (1:10 PM)
Tim, If Junior is re-energized in Chicago and can play a half-decent center field, he allows Swisher to shift to first base and replace a slumping Konerko. And if Swisher slumps, then he can sit. It just gives Ozzie more options, that's all.
Adam, IL
I, like many others, thought the Twins would fade and focused my time worrying about Paul Konerko and Detroit. Now, with the addition of a healthy Liriano to the rotation, I'm VERY worried about the Twins. Even though it's just one player, which leads me to this question: If Paul Konerko finds his swing and returns to his '05 and '06 late-summer form, how much does that really do for the Sox chances?
Jerry Crasnick (1:12 PM)
Adam, If Konerko can regain his form, that obviously helps a lot. But it really comes down to pitching for the Sox. If they can get Contreras and Linebrink back at something resembling effectiveness, they're a completely different team. A healthy and productive bullpen of Dotel, Linebrink and Jenks would give Chicago a big advantage over Minnesota.
Andy (Eagan, MN)
Have you ruled out Detroit, or what factor could they play in this race?
Jerry Crasnick (1:14 PM)
Andy, We're at the stage of the season where a 6 1/2 game deficit is tough to make up on one club, much less two. As of yesterday, the Twins and Sox had winning percentages of around .560. If they play close to that the rest of the way, Detroit has to go something like 35-16 to win the division. The Tigers simply aren't that good.
Chris Cassata Ingleside, IL
morons... typical...
Jerry Crasnick (1:14 PM)
Chris, I take it you're a White Sox fan.
Minneapolis, MN
Do you think that Michael Cuddyer will be able to come in to the lineup and help them out with their lack of power? What about Denard Span? He has done great in right field and leading off for the Twins would they bench Gomez? or possibly Young for Span and Cuddyer?
Jerry Crasnick (1:17 PM)
Minny, Delmon Young only has four homers, but he's hitting .326 since the start of June. Given Minnesota's need for production from the right side, there's no way he sits. I think Gardenhire plugs Cuddyer into right field, keeps Delmon in left and finds a way to get ABs for the other two.
Matt (IN)
How much do you think the Twins road trip due to the national convention will come into play here? Thanks
Jerry Crasnick (1:19 PM)
Matt, I asked Ron Gardenhire about it a month ago, and he said it would be great because the Twins would get "a lot of meal money." Let's put it this way: He's not going to let it become an issue. Since the Twins are such a young club, I think it might have less of a negative impact than it would on an older club.
Marc (IN)
How big of a STAR would be Justin Morneau be if he was in NY rather than Minnesota. All he does it rake, but it doesn't seem like he gets much publicity at all.
Jerry Crasnick (1:20 PM)
Marc, Well, he's won an MVP award and been the All Star Game Home Run Derby champ, so it's not as if he's completely underexposed. He gets more publicity than poor Adrian Gonzalez does in San Diego.
Chris (Minneapolis)
I'm not sure inexperience in the young pitching staff will be that much of a factor during the season. As a fan, I'm more worried about whether the rotation can last the rest of the season. Can they all pitch 180+ innings? The bullpen has flaws and have already been heavily worked. If the Twins' starters can't make it to the end, I don't think there is much of a debate.
Jerry Crasnick (1:22 PM)
Chris, The only guy the Twins seem to have concern about is Glen Perkins, who was hurt and pitched only about 50 innings last season. One thing to consider: Minnesota's young guys are all strike throwers, so they don't run up a lot of those really taxing 30-pitch innings.
Eric, IA
To follow up the Morneau being a star comment - when he was home run derby champ the commentators talked about how he didnt deserve to be there, one of them said his last name was monroe, and someone else said his first name was jason...
Jerry Crasnick (1:23 PM)
Eric, Yeah, but other than that, the announcing crew said a lot of wonderful things about him.
Brian (CT)
I am a Sox fan and grew up on Chicago. I was one of the many scratching their heads at the Lee for Podsednik deal a few years ago, then the Quentin deal this year, the deal for Gavin Floyd, and now Griffey instead of starting pitching....I have learned my lesson that Kenny Williams knows what he is doing. The Sox will take control of the division and beat up on teams at home as they have all year thus far. Got to have FAITH Sox fans!!! Your take Jerry?
Jerry Crasnick (1:25 PM)
Brian, No question, Kenny Williams' resume includes some moves that got panned at the time and turned out quite nicely. Even that Chris Young-for-Javier Vazquez deal looks a lot different now in light of Young's chronic inability to get on base. Plus, Kenny is never afraid to make a big move. You have to like that in a GM.
Freddy Eagan, MN
Jerry, What about the middle infield of the Twins? Can Punto and Harris make enough plays and get some timely hitting to help keep the Twins in contention?
Jerry Crasnick (1:28 PM)
Freddy, For a scrappy overachiever, Punto is sure a lightning rod. The Twins love him, and statistical analysts hate him. He's a handy guy with a good glove. But I'm not sure the Twins have enough offense in the rest of the lineup to carry his bat everyday. If Casilla isn't able to return at second, that could be a big blow for the Twins.
Dustin,(Moore, ok)
Everyone has said all year ...The twins will fade, they are a year away, this is a rebuilding year, ect...When will people realize that talent and good coaching are a part of this as well, and actually give the twins credit instead of waiting for them to fail?
Jerry Crasnick (1:31 PM)
Dustin, It makes sense that a team that's middle-of-the-pack in OBP and slugging is going to have a hard time producing runs by continuing to hit .317 with runners in scoring position. But now that we're in August, it's time to acknkowledge that the Twins aren't a fluke. The addition of Liriano, a couple of hot streaks by Young or Cuddyer, and the finish line isn't all that far away.
Ted (Minneapolis)
Do you think that Ron Gardenhire should have some say as the manager of the year? Since he has taken the Twins this far without one of the best pitchers of the game in Santana?
Jerry Crasnick (1:32 PM)
Ted, He should get some consideration, but Joe Maddon of Tampa Bay is still the frontrunner.
Daniel (Chicago, IL)
It seems to me that the Sox's inability to score runs without the long ball is a real red flag that will hurt them immensely if they get cold down the stretch. You could argue that a team with so many power bats is immune to that, but that argument's been made and disproven for dozens of teams (see Chicago Cubs, 2004). The Twins, on the other hand, don't hit a ton of home runs but can still knock one out when they need to. Just my two cents.
Jerry Crasnick (1:33 PM)
Daniel, We'll see. Three run homers are great, but it's hard to rely on them. The White Sox are a station to station team and they're going to be prone to fallow stretches when they're not hitting the ball out of the park.
Tim, IL
What do you think of the Sox chances of taking off in the division if the pitching can get back to it's early season form? If Vasquez and Contreras can heat up, and the bullpen get back to their under 2.30 ERA, I think the hitting can take care of the rest.
Jerry Crasnick (1:35 PM)
Tim, The Sox are relying an awful lot on Gavin Floyd and John Danks, so Buehrle has to pick it up along with the two guys you mentioned. And Scott Linebrink is a big key for that bullpen. If they can plug him in with Dotel, Thornton and Jenks, that's one of the better pens around.
Ron Mpls, Mn
Does being a "small ball" team keep the Twins from having prolonged slumps? Is that an edge over a power team like the White Sox?
Jerry Crasnick (1:38 PM)
Ron, It helps that guys like Gomez and Span can put the ball in play and beat out infield hits with their legs. But Gomez has only a .289 OBP, so his speed doesn't help much when he's sitting in the dugout. The biggest issue, for me, is that the Twins are so reliant on Mauer, Morneau and, to a lesser extent, Kubel. Craig Monroe certainly wasn't the answer as a veteran right-handed bat. Will Cuddyer help? If he's finally over his hand injuries, you'd have to think so.
Parker, Chanhassen, MN
In your opinion, who was the "winner" - if any - of the Delmon Young/Matt Garza trade? Long term who comes out on top?
Jerry Crasnick (1:41 PM)
Parker, Hard to say, but I like what Garza has given the Rays more than what Delmon has given the Twins this year. Garza has pitched like a legit No. 3 starter, and Delmon needs to elevate that .392 slugging percentage. If he does, it could work out to be a pretty good deal for both sides. I think both players needed a change of scenery.
Jake (Burnsville, MN)
Jerry, What is your opinion on Delmon Young's power? Will he develop to hit 20 + or even 30+ HRs, he is only 22 years old? Thanks.
Jerry Crasnick (1:43 PM)
Jake, Maybe 20, but he certainly hasn't shown the capacity to be a 30-homer guy. Twenty is OK if Delmon learns to be a more selective hitter. But as Jeff Francouer has shown, the learning curve can be bumpy for guys like this.
Frank (Chicago)
Since taking over at 2nd Alexei Ramirez has been a stud. Do you think he can be a star in this league?
Jerry Crasnick (1:44 PM)
Frank, I watched him in spring training and was amazed at his athleticism. I don't know about "star," but he's got the tools to be a very good everyday guy. I guess the big question is where -- second, short or center? That's a nice problem for the White Sox to have.
Bob (Chicago)
Three games (9/23 - 9/25). White Sox at Twins. Does this decide the division?
Jerry Crasnick (1:46 PM)
Bob, It could. The Twins need to hang close during that marathon road odyssey for the late season series to matter. For what it's worth, Minnesota plays Kansas City twice at home in the final three weeks. So the Royals will have a huge impact on the division race.
scott (irving tx)
will the sox pick up freddy garcia?
Jerry Crasnick (1:47 PM)
Scott, My money is on the Mets. But if Freddy cracks 80 on the gun, there'll probably be a bunch of clubs interested in him.
Max (St. Paul, MN)
Why did the twins opt to release Livan but keep Boof in the bullpen? Why not demote Livan to the bullpen? Boof can't even get close to eating up innings because he gets shelled nearly every outing?
Jerry Crasnick (1:49 PM)
Max, Did you check Livan's stats? 199 hits allowed in 139 innings, and getting worse by the day. The Twins had to be tired of watching him pitch once every five days -- never mind 2-3 times a week.
Patrick, Chicago
Jerry, im sorry to disagree with you and others who have said this team has no fight... We had a bad stretch in Minni and in KC, but do you not recal the dramtic (and crucial) come from behind wins IN DETROIT JUST LAST WEEKEND?? We have been doing it all year, this team does fight. The unsung key in all this is Javier Vazquez, who has the stuff to be a top flight starter, and has shown glimpses. His last start against the Royals was very good... if he gets on track with Danks and Floyd, the Sox will win the division.
Jerry Crasnick (1:49 PM)
Patrick, Glad to see some spunk from a White Sox fan. That's the spirit!
SH (Frankfort, IL)
Jerry, Don't you think that K-Will still has a move up his sleeve knowing that he craved Huston Street..and he was willing to give up Nick Masset..while knowing that the bullpen has been signaling SOS lately??
Jerry Crasnick (1:51 PM)
SH, For what it's worth, I recently checked the list of August acquisitions last year, and the deals were pretty meager. For the last couple of years it's basically been Jeff Conine and Russell Branyan switching teams in August. And now Conine is retired.
Doug (Champaign, IL)
I know we are only 1 year into the Carlos Quentin experience, but couldn't this be one of the greatest (or worst, depending on whose side your on) trades in the last 20 years? Or do you think that Q! will come down and have an average career (say, .280, 20 hr, 85 rbi)?
Jerry Crasnick (1:53 PM)
Doug, Whatever he does from here, Quentin has been a steal. He was Arizona's No. 1 prospect in 2005, so it's not as if he lacked the talent. His biggest issues with the D-backs were injuries and a penchant for beating himself up during the hard times. That's not a problem now. He's the classic "change of scenery" guy.
Zac (MN)
I love Gomez, but doesn't he have to sit when cuddyer comes back. Span can play CF and he is already leading off. I just don't see how a lineup can score on a consistent basis with Gomez, punto, harris and buscher (or lamb) playing everyday.
Jerry Crasnick (1:54 PM)
Zac, That may very well be Gardenhire's plan. Since the Twins don't hit many homers, they have to rely a lot on stringing together hits. And it's tough to do with 3-4 soft spots in the lineup.
Bob - Phoenix Arizona
Let's see how the White Sox come out and play against Detroit tonight before giving Minny all the props. The Twins couldn't hold 1st place very long(only 24 hours) after getting ahead of the White Sox. I think the veterans for the Sox will make the difference!
Jerry Crasnick (1:56 PM)
Bob, One other thing: The last time we got giddy about the Twins, they traveled to Boston and New York and got steamrolled. As Lou Piniella likes to say, it's always interesting to see how a young club will deal with heightened expectations.
Edgar (Beverly Hills, CA)
Jerry, between these two teams. Who do you think has the best chance of going the furthest in the play-offs? And how well do they match up against power-houses like the Angels, Tampa or Boston or NY?
Jerry Crasnick (1:57 PM)
Edgar, I think the White Sox are a stronger postseason threat because of their deeper bullpen and their ability to put runs on the board in a hurry. And that World Series experience from 2005 can't hurt.
Sam (Oregon)
Don't the White Sox have an identity crisis? They trade power hitting Carlos Lee for Posednik, then trade clubhouse leader Rowand for power hitting Thome, and with Posednik gone trade to put Swisher in center and then trade for Griffey to play center. Looks like excessive GM-ing to me.
Jerry Crasnick (1:59 PM)
Sam, Interesting analysis, but the White Sox are tied for first place in the division. And they're ahead of both Detroit and Cleveland, which entered the season with a heck of a lot more hype. So what does that say about the Tigers and the Indians?
David(Fargo. ND)
The injury to Pat Neshek is going to really hurt the Twins down the stretch(it already has). The bullpen has been terrible of late and not getting any better. Good thing the Sox rotation is struggling and their outfield is well below average and aging. Its going to be fun to watch for another 2 months. My money is on the Twins.
Jerry Crasnick (2:01 PM)
David, I'm with you on the bullpen. I know the Twins tried to bring back LaTroy Hawkins, but couldn't make it work. Guys like Crain, Guerrier and Dennys Reyes have shown they're capable, but do you have faith they can do it in a big spot in September or the postseason? I'm sure not sold.
Anthony (Chicago, IL)
Jerry, though I'm a very big White Sox fan, I try to be as unbiased as possible when analyzing the teams. I agree with your analysis on the current AL Central race. A 51/49 split is a very accurate way to describe this race between the Sox and Twins. Once again (such as 2003 and 2004 in particular) the Sox appear much better on paper, but here we are on 8/5 and tied with the Twins. I have to give the Minnesota organization extreme credit. Even I thought after they lost Santana and Hunter and made no real established replacements that they where out of it this year. Once again they've made the absolute most of what they have and play their hearts out. Not that the Sox lack heart, but Baseball is won on the field and not on paper. I'm rooting for the Sox but this will be close. Thanks Jerry.
Jerry Crasnick (2:04 PM)
Anthony, That's a long post, but it summarizes the way I look at this thing. There's no earthly reason for the Twins to be where they are right now. But when you talk to people in the game, they universally respect the way Minnesota does things -- from the way the Twins bring their players through the system to the constant emphasis on fundamentals. It's almost corny, yet the Twins seem to do this every year when teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City struggle. Minnesota isn't in first place because of its financial resources, but because the Twins run a great organization.
Rich (Lake Geneva WI)
Any chance both teams get in? Chicago has games with Boston left. The Yankees Rays and Red Sox have a lot of games against each other yet. What about one team sneaking in and grabing the WC?
Jerry Crasnick (2:06 PM)
Rich, That's a great thought to end the chat with. When you check the standings, it's certainly possible. How cool would it be if the AL Central sent two teams to the postseason -- with neither one being Detroit or Cleveland?
Jerry Crasnick (2:06 PM)
Thanks for the emails, everybody. Let's do it again soon.
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